Wednesday, December 10, 2008

Market Outlook for Next 2 Years

20 comments:

Anonymous said...

Very pessimistic!? Recession spread globally, almost every market hits. Despite all central bank cut interest rate and pump-prime capital, market unlikely to recover soon...

Anonymous said...

Bought resort at 2.19 and sold at 2.23. Stop practise dollar cost avaraging tentatively, resort may need longer than expected time to recover. Take contra profit whenever is possible now!

Anonymous said...

For your information, Lonbiscuit seem cancel its proposed F&F dividend!? Couldn't find previous annoncement in bursa posting now and dividend proposal was not in coming AGM agenda. This could be another incident similar to Kamdar, which propose dividend but subsequently cancel.

horse said...

Lonbisc, Running out of money ?? so, no div this time round... bad idea. Considering selling it off...

horse said...

queuing to sell tnb at 6.15, not done. Likely to buy Resorts for contra play again tomorrow.
Yea, i guess u should continue practise your contra gain on Resorts till you get your money buy out. Tenatively, can make some profit and averaging down as well...

Anonymous said...

I still remenber Lonbisc did proposed dividend of 5 sen in bursa annoncement, but somehow it disappear !? Very weird if make proposal but later cancel without giving reason..corporate governance and accountability in doubt.

Anonymous said...

Recent landsilde in bukit antarabangsa (BA) may affect PJ develpment earning. For your information, PJ dev recently just introduce high-end semi-D and bunglow (Siarah Oakleaf) in BA. Recent Q1 result also less impressive, EPS just 1.16sen. Will try to reduce PJ devel and sell on strength.

horse said...

Landslide in BA will affect greatly on all hill side property.
PJ Dev is still steady at around 0.46. don't see any panic on this.

Anonymous said...

PJ dev share largely supported by its dividend of 5 sen, yielding more than 10%. But, prospect of its hotel, property and contruction likely impacted by current bearish market. Remain on sell of this stock but will take advantage of strength in share price when its dividend is approaching to entitlement.

Anonymous said...

Bought Sime at 5.35, Commerce at 5.90 and Maybank at 5.20 for contra trade.

Also bought AXREITS at 1.01 to avarage down holding cost.

horse said...

i particularly eyeing on axreit, may considering my entry when it touches below 1.00 for longterm and income distribution.
see you buying a lot today. :)

Anonymous said...

Sold Sime at 5.45 and commerce at 5.95. Unable to sell Maybank, wait for tom..

Bought Hektar at 73sen to average down holding cost. Have check with AxREITs and Hektar secretary, both admit their foreign shareholder are trying to liquidate their holding by dumping share in open market (but management refuse to disclose their identity). Management reaffirm no change in fundamental and commit at least 90% profit as income payout.

horse said...

Hektar is into shopping centre, how much the economy slowdown will affect its rental income?
Whereas Axreit is investing primarily in commercial, office and office/industrial real estate. Operations are carried out in Malaysia. Wonder which one will impact most ??

Anonymous said...

Hi hng,

Mind sharing how u make money with such a tight margin. How many lot u normally buy & wht the brokerage for day trading? Thanks.

Anonymous said...

For daytrading, brokerage is 0.15%, while normal brokerage is 0.42%. If amount more than 100k, brokerage will be 0.1%. Take for example, if buy sime at RM5.35 x 5,000 and sell at RM5.40 x 5,000 for daytrade, the profit margin will be RM18x5= RM90.

Anonymous said...

The impact on REITs should be minimum compared with other sector such as plantation (high stockpile, export, forex risk etc); Banking industry (Lower wealth management income, slowdown in loan growth, higher credit default), Consumer and trade(lower consumer spending); Industry (lower export volume); Construction (lower demand and contract); Property (lower demand for housing, particular high-end bubble).

Nevertheless, the growth of REITS are limited as they may face difficulty to raise capital through unit placement to pare down gearing and acquire more distress asset. Another is risk to roll over their asset back loan as bank may reluctant to take higher risk in view of likelihood that their pledge asset may depreciate in slowdown economy.

In term of rental default, Industrial exposure may face higher risk (AXREITs) than retail (Hektar) as the number of tenant in industrial mostly tailor made and sudden default could affect profit, while the number of tenat in retail sector is high and diversified, any default could mitigate by wellknown anchor tenant.

Anonymous said...

Bought Resort at 2.16 -2.17; Commerce at 5.90; Sime at 5.35; IOI at 3.18 and Maybank at 5.15 for conra trade..

horse said...

thks hng, REITS is going through a though time but so long as there is tenant and rental, there is dividend to be paid, maybe is in the shrinking stage. Accumulate in stages is the best strategy for REITS and hold it longterm will be ideal.

Anonymous said...

Sold resort at 2.20; commerce at 5.95; IOI at 3.22 and maybank at 5.20.

Anonymous said...

The main culprit for free-fall in REITs share price are attributed to foreign selling. Most of the REITs shareholder are institution fund and large portion are from foreign trust fund. Intitally, it could be good indicator for retail as institution fund tend to be long term in nature and aim for growth and yield income. Nonetheless, situation now has reverse, those with high institution/foreign trust fund shareholding are now perceive to be higher risk as shareholder has to dispose their share to meet redemption at all cost.

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