As mention before, i'm building up my core portfolio after dispose almost all REITs. The ideal core portfolio should limited in the range of 8-12 stock for better monitoring.
Resort post negative EPS = -6.75 due to impairment in sellable investment asset!?
Nonetheless, resort fundamental business still resilient and has proposed dividend of 4 sen. Expect resort may under pressure tomorrow, and if does may offer another oppurtunity to bargain at lower price
Bought Faber at 690-705 (proposed dividend of 4sen).
With this newly stock, my interim core portfolio consisted of 15 stocks from varios sector have completed. Up to 70% of my total capital has been utilized for these recent purchase.
Remaining 30% will be use to either cost averaging exiting stocks or use for bargain hunt other potential stock. Hopefully all my stocks will perform as expected
Sold partial on following stocks to realize some profit first: classic scenic at 38sen, Melati at 67-67.5sen (entitle dividend of 5.5sen), Bintulu port at 5.45-5.50, NCB at 2.63, Deleum at 1.06, star at 3.08.
Bought Dayang at 76.5-77sen (delcare dividend 7sen), yield 9%. With this stock in my portfolio, i've two exposure in oil and gas sector namely Deleum and Dayang, whereby both are cash-rich and have subtantial order book for at least another 2 yr.
Index down more than 2% lead by Maybank and TMI, which record negative and flat earning, but proposed huge right issue to raise capital in current downturn market!?
Bargain time has come!
Just make intraday contra on TM, bought at 3.40, sold at 3.48 (pending dividend payout and capital dist provide short term catalyst and limited downside)
maybank propose right issue of 9:20 may not be a good sign for downturn mkt. raising fund for transformation plan??? spending too much unneccessarily & now expect more $$ to rescue. how much do u think epf gonna spend this time round??
Right issue is not a good sign in downturn market as it have to be significant below market share price with some predict at least 30% discount in order to entice shareholder, which in turn causing huge amount of new share issue to raise necessary capital and dilute exiting shareholder value.
yeah, only company in critical bad shape will raise money to rescue but Maybank having close to 2b profit still raising fund via right issue, something fishy here ??? not only dilute shareholder value, indirectly burning our (epf) money...coz they hold most of the stock.
In regard to Maybank, although report falt earning, but it eventually have to make impairment for all its investment in indonesia, Pakistan and Vitnam equity as it require to mark to market value and account high goodwill, latest by end of this financial yr ending June. Therefore, Maybank urgently need to raise capital to maintain its tier one capital and repay loan for last yr acquistion, otherwise its bond rating has high risk to be downgraded. Maybank may also need to hold dividend to conserve cash.
Similarly, TMI raise capital to repay TM loan and pay last yr acquistion cost. To khazanah or EPF, there should no have problem, as they are common shareholder for both TM and TMI, they just transfer monay received from TM and use that to subscibe TMI right issue.
Market sentiment remain sideline and sluggish trading volume. With impending huge right issue proposed by two giant bluechip, market likely take caution step by next few month. Maybank intend to raise RM 6 bilion, involving issue new 2121m share based on 9:20 ratio at right RM 2.71.
While TMI intend to raise RM 5.25 bilion, involving issue new 5254m share based on 1.4:1 ratio at right price RM 1.00
"Most Asian and European market rebound and expect similar pattern in US market after massive selloff." In that case, KLCI will expect rebound as well tomorrow.. haha...
Finally, the right issue for Maybank has determied at RM 2.74, which is arrived at after taking into consideration the price of RM4.82 per Share based on the closing price of Maybank Shares traded on Bursa Malaysia Securities Berhad as at 5 March 2009 and represents a discount of 34.4% from the theoretical ex-rights price of RM4.17 per Share and a discount of 43.2% to the closing price of RM4.82 of Maybank Shares as at 5 March 2009.
Very soon, TMI will also release its right issue price, perhaps at just its par value of RM 1.00 only, based on 1.4 for 1 share, to raise 5.25bilion capital.
Those interested on these two stocks should wait to buy their right at right issue after floating on bursa trading to take cheap entry price. Therotical Ex-right price for Maybank should be less than RM 4.17, while TMI at RM 1.62
As expected, market down on concern over right issue of Maybank at 2.74, It definitely dampen market sentiment as this new share is 43.2% discount and is larger than indicated range of 30-40%. Market may contiune downturn while waiting for another confirmation of TMI right, issue at even larger discount!?
really dissappointed with MBB's right issue, splashing cold water to existing shareholders. raise fund for "transformation plan" ? r they in financial trouble due to lavish takeover or mismanage of fund ?
I suspect the capital raise through right issue is urgently needed to boost back MBB tier 1 capital after make impairment in its overseas venture by June. Thus, the right issue is not earning enhancer but have absolute earning dilution for at least 50%, dividend may slash or even temporary suspend to conserve cash as it make no sense after cash-call via right issue, and yet still maintain high dividend policy. The situation is even worst for TMI as capital raise to use mostly to repay borrowing to TM, it is totally earning dilution for at least 140%.
Maintain underweight on these two giant, but may take oppurtunity to buy right for right issue when they go for floating. Switch to TM for better exposure to dividend and capital repayment play. I think the strategy GLC adopt is keep TM as main dividend income yield stocks, while maintain TMI for potential growth and oversea venture.
Maybank had fixed the price of its 9:20 rights issue at RM2.74/share, 43% discount to yesterday’s closing price. Theoretical ex-rights price will be RM4.17/shr. This will raise in total RM6bn and 2.2bn new shares while lifting its core capital adequacy ratio from 8.1% to 11%. Up to 89% of the rights issue will be taken by major shareholders like PNB, ASN and EPF. The exercise is expected to be completed by June09. Funds raised is sufficient to cover any impairment on its recent acquisition of BII (valued at RM8.6bn for 100%) and MCB (valued at RM2.9bn for 20%). Despite valuation at 1xP/B, Maybank is not cheap compared to regional peers. We think slowing economic activity and recent cut in BLR will have immediate effects on the earnings, while recovery of Malaysian banking valuation will strongly depend on recovery of regional peers’ valuation (HK and Singapore peers trading at 0.8-0.9xP/B).
Second stimulus packages worth 60 bilion, larger than expected! Expect market will response positively
These RM60bil package, to be implemented over 2009 and 2010, includes RM15bil as fiscal injection, RM25bil in Guarantee Funds, RM10bil for equity investments, RM7bil for private finance initiatives and off-budget projects, as well as RM3bil in tax incentives.
Make one intraday contra on Pbbank-01. Bought 7.20, sold at 7.30.
Pbbank still under selling pressure despite massive selldown yesterday, probably due to absence of catalyst in short term and relative rich valuation compare to other banking. In addition, recent research report form foreign namely Citi and JP Morgan also downgrade this stock from overweight to neutral/sell rating.
Nevertheless, i'll still buying on these stock on weakness with floor price of RM 7.00 and expect stock may oversold and due for rebound soon
60billions package still can't spur much on market....? 10b for equity investment but i believe this bulk is use only to support not meant for "invest", likely that it will not be spend unless a big dip in KLSE.
I suspect part of 10b for equity investment is use by PNB to subscibe Maybank and TMI right issue, protect ASB interest!?.
This underwhelming stimulus apparently depress market sentiment as it seem have muted effect on man on street!
The only effect may be if purchase only new hourse, entitle tax relief of 10k for 3yr, and for those have FD, command only 2.5%, can switch to upcoming Bon (interest 5%, for 3yr) open for age above 21 all citizen, but limit to 50k
stimulus became poisonous, mkt from +ve to -ve. Staying out & not touching any. The package has no individual benefit at all, no tax relief except new house owner. if 10b indeed for right issue then is obvious protect d same old 'majority'....? this mkt is heading south, can't seem to stimulate any...!
It is very obvious that stimulus package failed to spur market. Frankly, if without these disppointed stimulus package, market may rebound follow regional market which up mostly more than 2%. Thus, our package instead stimulute, it have toxin effect :-(
Rumour spread that our PM may delay in handling over his position to DPM, citing that he get not only support from some of BN but also PR and the fact that there is no rule that PM must be Presiden, so long is can get majority support from MP.
PM get PR supports is for sure but BN supports is a bit skeptical,,, who in BN will support beside Razaleigh, Jkhairy & some sabah MPs. If they do support & not in majority...fearing that when Najib really takeover, these bunch will get themselve in troubles...but anything can happen. Lets wait and see...
MP from East Msia are more flexible and chance to opt for support is high. People already raise dissatisfaction over Perak issue and underwhelming stimulus package that seem unable spur Msia economy in short term. Together it may cause DPM less merit and render good reason to delay by PM in handling power.
65 comments:
Very good! make intraday gain in investment deserve to be happy :-)
Bought more MFCB at 69sen, Deleum at 1.03sen and YNHprop at 92-92.5sen.
Also added in the portfolio today is Classic scenic at 33sen
wow, you r in the mode of buying spree... if mkt surge, u r the happy man in deed. :-)
Might consider your pick on YNH around 90sen..
My resorts not match, same faith to bursa sell bit at 5.15, have to pick up this guy (T+3), try selling tomorrow at 5.15 again.
Look for opportunity on TMI again tomorrow... :-)
As mention before, i'm building up my core portfolio after dispose almost all REITs. The ideal core portfolio should limited in the range of 8-12 stock for better monitoring.
Just scanning financial result announcemnt. Star declare 7.5sen + special 3sen TE; Naim declare 5 sen TE
Newly purchase: Classic scenic also proposed 3sen TE (Yield >9%)!
Resort post negative EPS = -6.75 due to impairment in sellable investment asset!?
Nonetheless, resort fundamental business still resilient and has proposed dividend of 4 sen. Expect resort may under pressure tomorrow, and if does may offer another oppurtunity to bargain at lower price
Bought star at 3.00, resort at 2.21 and TM at 3.50
no trading today. queuing resorts at 2.2 not matched.
Bought Faber at 690-705 (proposed dividend of 4sen).
With this newly stock, my interim core portfolio consisted of 15 stocks from varios sector have completed. Up to 70% of my total capital has been utilized for these recent purchase.
Remaining 30% will be use to either cost averaging exiting stocks or use for bargain hunt other potential stock. Hopefully all my stocks will perform as expected
MFCB has just annouce Q4 result, EPS=2.49, cum: 17.2) and proposed final dividend of 3.5sen (yield 5%) total payout dividnd 5.5sen (7.8%)
Sold partial on following stocks to realize some profit first: classic scenic at 38sen, Melati at 67-67.5sen (entitle dividend of 5.5sen), Bintulu port at 5.45-5.50, NCB at 2.63, Deleum at 1.06, star at 3.08.
Bought CNI at 20-20.5sen, declare interim dividend of 1.8sen (yield 8.8%)
with BNM cutting rate, should be a good support for all dividend stocks.
hng, u r on the right track...
Bought more KSL at 61.5-62sen.
Good news for YNH property, this stocks has successfully rebounded to above 1.00 mark, closing at 1.02.
Interim 10sen div T.E for Guinness, not bad. EPS = 27.14 1H net profit increase 17%.
Bought Dayang at 76.5-77sen (delcare dividend 7sen), yield 9%. With this stock in my portfolio, i've two exposure in oil and gas sector namely Deleum and Dayang, whereby both are cash-rich and have subtantial order book for at least another 2 yr.
Index down more than 2% lead by Maybank and TMI, which record negative and flat earning, but proposed huge right issue to raise capital in current downturn market!?
Bargain time has come!
Just make intraday contra on TM, bought at 3.40, sold at 3.48 (pending dividend payout and capital dist provide short term catalyst and limited downside)
This morning purchase; Dayang is maiataining its upside momentrum even though market down 2%, confirming notion that investor chase cash dividend!.
maybank propose right issue of 9:20 may not be a good sign for downturn mkt. raising fund for transformation plan??? spending too much unneccessarily & now expect more $$ to rescue. how much do u think epf gonna spend this time round??
wow, tmi drop 30sen !!! very tempting.
Index manage to push up a bit at last minute and down just 14pts. This is far better than regional market which down at least 3%.
Bought Faber (67.5-68sen), clasic scenic (33 sen), TA (59sen)and resort (2.11) to averging holding cost.
Sold partial Dayang at 79.5sen to realize intraday gain and sold also NCB at 2.66
Right issue is not a good sign in downturn market as it have to be significant below market share price with some predict at least 30% discount in order to entice shareholder, which in turn causing huge amount of new share issue to raise necessary capital and dilute exiting shareholder value.
yeah, only company in critical bad shape will raise money to rescue but Maybank having close to 2b profit still raising fund via right issue, something fishy here ??? not only dilute shareholder value, indirectly burning our (epf) money...coz they hold most of the stock.
In regard to Maybank, although report falt earning, but it eventually have to make impairment for all its investment in indonesia, Pakistan and Vitnam equity as it require to mark to market value and account high goodwill, latest by end of this financial yr ending June. Therefore, Maybank urgently need to raise capital to maintain its tier one capital and repay loan for last yr acquistion, otherwise its bond rating has high risk to be downgraded. Maybank may also need to hold dividend to conserve cash.
Similarly, TMI raise capital to repay TM loan and pay last yr acquistion cost. To khazanah or EPF, there should no have problem, as they are common shareholder for both TM and TMI, they just transfer monay received from TM and use that to subscibe TMI right issue.
Market response modestly to overnight US selldown, down just 1%
Make intraday contra on resort (2.04) and TM (3.46), sold at 2.10 and 3.50-52, respectively
Sold partial NCB at 2.68, and bought Naim at 1.21
Bought back resort at 2.05 and YNH property at 92-92.5sen.
Sold another partial Deleum at 1.09.
Make one intraday contra on Resort: bought at 2.02, sold at 2.05.
Bought back resort again at 2.03
Market sentiment remain sideline and sluggish trading volume. With impending huge right issue proposed by two giant bluechip, market likely take caution step by next few month. Maybank intend to raise RM 6 bilion, involving issue new 2121m share based on 9:20 ratio at right RM 2.71.
While TMI intend to raise RM 5.25 bilion, involving issue new 5254m share based on 1.4:1 ratio at right price RM 1.00
Sold all yesterday Naim cendera (cost: RM 1.21) at 1.23 to realize T+1 profit
sideline for me, not trading any for now.
Sold Resort at 2.05 for second round intraday gain.
Sold off remaining NCB at 2.70,
Bought Yilai at 52sen, KSL at 60sen and TA at 58sen.
Most Asian and European market rebound and expect similar pattern in US market after massive selloff.
"Most Asian and European market rebound and expect similar pattern in US market after massive selloff."
In that case, KLCI will expect rebound as well tomorrow.. haha...
Sold off all star at 3.12
Sold off all remaining Dayang at 80-81sen
Sold off all yesterday TA at 59-59.5sen to realize T+1 profit
Sold off all yesterday TA at 59-59.5sen to realize T+1 profit
hng, really admire your trading style. deserve to be full time trader. :)
Finally, the right issue for Maybank has determied at RM 2.74, which is arrived at after taking into consideration the price of RM4.82 per Share based on the closing price of Maybank Shares traded on Bursa Malaysia Securities Berhad as at 5 March 2009 and represents a discount of 34.4% from the theoretical ex-rights price of RM4.17 per Share and a discount of 43.2% to the closing price of RM4.82 of Maybank Shares as at 5 March 2009.
Very soon, TMI will also release its right issue price, perhaps at just its par value of RM 1.00 only, based on 1.4 for 1 share, to raise 5.25bilion capital.
Those interested on these two stocks should wait to buy their right at right issue after floating on bursa trading to take cheap entry price. Therotical Ex-right price for Maybank should be less than RM 4.17, while TMI at RM 1.62
As expected, market down on concern over right issue of Maybank at 2.74, It definitely dampen market sentiment as this new share is 43.2% discount and is larger than indicated range of 30-40%. Market may contiune downturn while waiting for another confirmation of TMI right, issue at even larger discount!?
Waiting for better bargain price now.
really dissappointed with MBB's right issue, splashing cold water to existing shareholders. raise fund for "transformation plan" ? r they in financial trouble due to lavish takeover or mismanage of fund ?
frankly of the two MBB & TMI, i would prefer MBB than TMI. At least this giant is still in the black comparing TMI...
I suspect the capital raise through right issue is urgently needed to boost back MBB tier 1 capital after make impairment in its overseas venture by June. Thus, the right issue is not earning enhancer but have absolute earning dilution for at least 50%, dividend may slash or even temporary suspend to conserve cash as it make no sense after cash-call via right issue, and yet still maintain high dividend policy. The situation is even worst for TMI as capital raise to use mostly to repay borrowing to TM, it is totally earning dilution for at least 140%.
Maintain underweight on these two giant, but may take oppurtunity to buy right for right issue when they go for floating. Switch to TM for better exposure to dividend and capital repayment play. I think the strategy GLC adopt is keep TM as main dividend income yield stocks, while maintain TMI for potential growth and oversea venture.
Sold off all remining Deleum at 1.07 and TA at 59-62sen.
Bought KSL at 59sen and resort at 2.01
Also bought YNH property at 89.5sen to further average down holding cost
Maybank had fixed the price of its 9:20 rights issue at RM2.74/share, 43% discount to
yesterday’s closing price. Theoretical ex-rights price will be RM4.17/shr. This will raise in
total RM6bn and 2.2bn new shares while lifting its core capital adequacy ratio from 8.1%
to 11%. Up to 89% of the rights issue will be taken by major shareholders like PNB, ASN
and EPF. The exercise is expected to be completed by June09. Funds raised is sufficient
to cover any impairment on its recent acquisition of BII (valued at RM8.6bn for 100%) and
MCB (valued at RM2.9bn for 20%).
Despite valuation at 1xP/B, Maybank is not cheap compared to regional peers. We think
slowing economic activity and recent cut in BLR will have immediate effects on the
earnings, while recovery of Malaysian banking valuation will strongly depend on recovery
of regional peers’ valuation (HK and Singapore peers trading at 0.8-0.9xP/B).
Market open almost down 1%, trying to catch up yesterday regional selldown.
Bought Pbank-01 at 7.35-7.40, Resort at 1.96-1.97. Bargain time has come, prepare capital to hit..
Bought YNH property at 88-89sen, TA at 58-58.5sen and ApexHealthcare at 1.10.
Good catch, hng. I'm taking a rest, still sideline, not doing any trades.
Sold off all today YNH property at 92-93sen and resort at 2.00 for intraday gain.
Bought more PBank-01 at 7.25, Apexhealthcare at 1.10. Expect market to rebound soon for bear market rally.
Second stimulus packages worth 60 bilion, larger than expected! Expect market will response positively
These RM60bil package, to be implemented over 2009 and 2010, includes RM15bil as fiscal injection, RM25bil in Guarantee Funds, RM10bil for equity investments, RM7bil for private finance initiatives and off-budget projects, as well as RM3bil in tax incentives.
Make one intraday contra on Pbbank-01. Bought 7.20, sold at 7.30.
Pbbank still under selling pressure despite massive selldown yesterday, probably due to absence of catalyst in short term and relative rich valuation compare to other banking. In addition, recent research report form foreign namely Citi and JP Morgan also downgrade this stock from overweight to neutral/sell rating.
Nevertheless, i'll still buying on these stock on weakness with floor price of RM 7.00 and expect stock may oversold and due for rebound soon
60billions package still can't spur much on market....? 10b for equity investment but i believe this bulk is use only to support not meant for "invest", likely that it will not be spend unless a big dip in KLSE.
I suspect part of 10b for equity investment is use by PNB to subscibe Maybank and TMI right issue, protect ASB interest!?.
This underwhelming stimulus apparently depress market sentiment as it seem have muted effect on man on street!
The only effect may be if purchase only new hourse, entitle tax relief of 10k for 3yr, and for those have FD, command only 2.5%, can switch to upcoming Bon (interest 5%, for 3yr) open for age above 21 all citizen, but limit to 50k
Sold remaining Bintulu port at 5.50.
Bought back Dayang at 77sen, still entitle dividend of 7sen
stimulus became poisonous, mkt from +ve to -ve. Staying out & not touching any.
The package has no individual benefit at all, no tax relief except new house owner. if 10b indeed for right issue then is obvious protect d same old 'majority'....? this mkt is heading south, can't seem to stimulate any...!
It is very obvious that stimulus package failed to spur market. Frankly, if without these disppointed stimulus package, market may rebound follow regional market which up mostly more than 2%. Thus, our package instead stimulute, it have toxin effect :-(
Market down again, more than 1%.
Bought Pbbank-01 at 6.90-6.95 to further average down holding cost. Bought also resort at 1.93-1.94
i am staying out. Wait till Najib in position first. Likely that this not the end yet, hope a rebound is on its way. 800 might be possible :(
Rumour spread that our PM may delay in handling over his position to DPM, citing that he get not only support from some of BN but also PR and the fact that there is no rule that PM must be Presiden, so long is can get majority support from MP.
PM get PR supports is for sure but BN supports is a bit skeptical,,, who in BN will support beside Razaleigh, Jkhairy & some sabah MPs. If they do support & not in majority...fearing that when Najib really takeover, these bunch will get themselve in troubles...but anything can happen. Lets wait and see...
MP from East Msia are more flexible and chance to opt for support is high. People already raise dissatisfaction over Perak issue and underwhelming stimulus package that seem unable spur Msia economy in short term. Together it may cause DPM less merit and render good reason to delay by PM in handling power.
Gloomy market likely continue in near future. No trading in afternoon session. Conserve more capital to bottom fishing.
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