YTL Power: 1MDB has displaced rivals YTL Power as the front runner in the tender for the 2000MW coal fired power plant known as Project 3B.
Sources say EC has decided to propose 1MDB as the preferred bidder for the rm11 billion planting up exercise to the Ministry. The final decision still rests with the cabinet.
1Malaysia Development Bhd (1MDB) has displaced rivals YTL Power International Bhd as the front runner in the tender for the 2,000MW coal-fired power plant known as Project 3B. According to industry sources, the board of the Energy Commission (EC) has decided to propose 1MDB as the preferred bidder for the RM11 billion planting-up exercise to the Ministry of Energy, Green Technology and Water. The final decision still rests with the Cabinet. If the tender is awarded to 1MDB, it will be the catalyst that the government-owned entity needs to list RM10.8 billion worth of power generation assets it has acquired over the past few years. The decision, however, is contrary to the recommendations of the EC’s own technical evaluation committee and has come under scrutiny from both local and international power players. After all, the EC has been bandying around the transparency and fairness of its open tenders for planting-up projects. The Edge reported earlier, citing documents sighted, that the EC’s technical evaluation committee had recommended YTL Power as the preferred bidder for the tender in December last year. Based on the documents, YTL Power had put in the lowest adjusted tariff of 25.23 sen per kW hour compared with 1MDB’s adjusted bid of 25.65 sen. The 0.42 sen difference is estimated to be worth around RM2 billion over the 25-year concession. It was widely expected that the Cabinet would decide on the award of the project at its meeting yesterday but according to sources, the EC’s proposal was not tabled. According to sources, part of the board’s rationale for selecting 1MDB over YTL Power had to do with YTL Power’s equipment supplier from South Korea, Doosan, which allegedly does not meet the necessary requirements. However, based on the report by the technical evaluation committee to the board, all concerns about Doosan’s capability to undertake the project have been dismissed. The location of the proposed plant is another reason the EC’s board is favouring 1MDB. 1MDB’s proposed site is in Jimah, Negeri Sembilan, next to the existing 1,400MW coal-fired Jimah Power station that it is acquiring from the Negeri Sembilan royal family. 1MDB’s injection point is at Olak Lempit, Selangor, which is much closer to the primary load centre in the Klang Valley. In comparison, YTL Power’s proposed site in Tanjung Tohor, Johor will use the Yong Peng East, Johor as its injection point (a point of connection where electricity flows into the national grid from generation plant). Since Yong Peng is further from the load centre, there should be higher transmission losses in the form of energy lost through heat over the distance. However, some industry players claim it is unlikely that transmission losses alone will be able to justify the 0.43 sen difference in tariff. They estimate 2% to 3% difference in transmission loss for a 500kv line and about 5% loss for a 275kv line. On top of that, it was the EC which originally named the five nodal points for bidders to use in their proposals as injection points. Once the power reaches the injection point, managing transmission losses will be the responsibility of Tenaga Nasional Bhd. “The tender was to offer a tariff as at the injection point. After that, it is Tenaga’s responsibility. Why would the EC name a nodal point for bidders to use when it is less than ideal?” asked one industry player.
At a time when electricity tariffs are on the rise, the public will be watching the tender closely. A decision could be made as soon as next Wednesday when the Cabinet meets again.
First round, EC technical evaluation committee favor YTLP (professional team),
Second round EC board favor 1MDB (board member are political nominee) and now
Final round battle will scale up to cabinet level (real political fight)
In the cabinet, there will be fight between DPM (former MB johor, task by Sultan to fight against vs. PM.....
Some may argue 1MDB is state own, therefore should in favor, but 1MDB operation is not transparent, its brainchild of PM and chair by him alone. A lot of power asset acquire are nearly expire or half way of their concession. 1MDB is debt laden with cash flow from concession barely meet interest expense and therefore in urgency to raise fund from IPO.
I think even in the end, 1MDB really win 3B project, there will be some under table deal, in which YTLP existing going expire power asset may either sell to 1MDB to totally pull out of Malaysia power sector or grant another 10 year extension.
YTL corp: 46.72% Yeoh family: 13.24% (stake are via Yeoh & son + cornerstone + Bara Aktif) Funds under PNB: 11.56% (SASB, value cap, ASM etc) Treasury stock: 9.43% EPF: 6.42% Kumpulan wang persaraan: 3.19% LTH: 1.99%
Summary Total stake under Yeoh control: 69.39% (YTL + Yeoh family + treasury) Total stake under GLC: 23.06% (PNB + EPF + KWP + LTH) Retail investor: 7.55%
1. Free cash rich (RM 9.6b) vs, debt laden 2. First IPP player and experience vs, newcomer and lack experience 3. Lowest bid vs. second lowest bid in tender 4. Partner with Sultan Johor + well connection with M vs. current PM 5. Power plant in Johor to replace expire Pasir Gudang vs. Negeri Sembilan 6. Power supply to Iskandar vs. Klang Valley
Most likely its power plant in Paka and Pasir Gudang even after expire will sell back to 1MDB, which later could secure extension concession or sell outright to TNB as its backup power plant. The selling price will depend on Gov, TNB and YTLP negotiation. These power plant unlikely to undergo dismantle as setting up new such power plant, will cost at least RM 5 billion. Even, the power plant have more than 20year old, but as long as its broiler still functional, it can be reserve as back up power plant in future.
Alternatively, YTLP will wan to proceed to power generation even without concession agreement, act as freelance....Its plant can supply power at very low price to TNB as it cost merely from freed stock gas only + afford profit margin 5% only. Unlikely current IPP and TNB own power plant, their cost is much higher as it need to input its power construction cost in + freed stock gas + expected profit margin 10%
If YTLP indeed failed to secure project 3b, there is no harm at all, as shareholder will not wan to wait for another round of huge capex spending till 2018 to build 2000MW again. Shareholder benefit already penalize by YTLP in 2010 until now to develop Yes broadband by cutting down quarterly dividend......, which is only these year onward, Yes broadband is expect to breakeven and turnaround into profit after completion of 1BestariNet. Its reward time now.
It could have some Knee Jerk reaction if YTLP failed, but share price will well supported by company sbb. It YTLP success instead, it is bonus. As the capex if as much as RM12bilion over next 4 year, only 2000MW is ready in 2018-2019. Assuming 20:80 equity:debt financing, YTLP need to conserve as much RM 2.4bilion to be spend in next 4 year, which is about same amount of capex in 2010, when YTLP indicate that it need RM 2.5bilion to develop Yes broadband....resulting cutting down quarterly dividend for shareholder....If YTLP win 3b project, YTLP may force to stop sbb in order to conserve its cash for capex to develop 2000MW power plant again.
About unfavourable knee-jerk reaction to ytlpwr IF not getting 3B... already mention here previously, there is minimal impact of YTLP earning even after its IPP expire in next year Sept, as it is offset by expected turnaround of its Yes broadband after completion of 1BestariNet project end of last year.
About 3B project, which is only about to contribute earning later 2018/2019 and its internal rate return only at 6-8% the most, if failed to secure now, YTLP future potential earning growth from 3B can be easily replace by its Enefit Jordan project, oil shale production and power plant, which also ready by 2017-2019. The construction of its first power plant 540MW is scheduled to commence these year after its have secure financing US 1.4bilion from Bank of China and Industrial Commercial bank of China.
WiMAX is obsolete technology,and it is NOT real 4G ( even P1 and YTLP claim it is ). Question is if YTLpwer switch to LTE,it may need to install new tower ( WiMAX and LTE are two different technology). YTL communication CEO ' s comment that just adding channel card work? Also,YTL subscribers may need new modem if they want switch to LTE . Of course they can continue using WiMAX
PETALING JAYA - YTL Communications Sdn Bhd's, the telecommunications arm of YTL Corp Bhd, could be abandoning its WiMax service which it has adopted since November 2010 to roll out its long-term evolution (LTE) technology.
Hong Leong Investment Bank's analyst Tan J Young believes that Yes, the brand name of YTL Communications in Malaysia, has stared trial runs and is preparing to roll its Time Division Duplexing-Long-Term Evolution (TDD-LTE) soon.
"LTE trials are currently conducted not only on the 20MHz of 2.6GHz spectrum which was awarded by MCMC in 2012, but also on its 30MHz of 2.3GHz spectrum which is presently occupied by its commercial WiMAX business," he said in an note to investors today.
"Surprisingly, trials are also being carried out on Asiaspace Broadband Sdn Bhd's 30MHz allocation on the 2.3GHz band," he added.
This, he said, could indirectly mean that Yes could be eyeing to take over Asiaspace's spectrum which is currently idle as the latter's WiMAX business did not materialise.
Asiaspace was awarded the 2.3GHz spectrum in December 2012 and was one of the four operators along with P1, YTL's Yes4G and REDtone that received the WiMAX licence from the government in 2007.
A check on Asiaspace's website revealed that the company is planning to go ahead with its collaboration with YTL on infrastructure and spectrum sharing under an agreement now that it has a 2.3GHz spectrum.
"With the collaboration, there will be avoided duplicity of infrastructure and maximize the use of bandwidth for the wireless broadband services nationwide by both companies to provide quality and uninterrupted services," it siad.
Young said Yes' exit from WiMAX was an anticipated move as the technology is widely believed to be phasing out and LTE is the only logical technology progression for telcos.
"If Yes lobbies successfully for Asiaspace's spectrum, it will allow Yes to migrate its existing WiMAX subscribers to LTE seamlessly while providing better quality of service," he said.
"Upon complete migration, Yes could use the whole 60MHz of 2.3GHz to offer TDD-LTE with theoretical download speed of up to 220Mbps (assumed based on latest carrier aggregation technology with 2 component carriers coupled with downlinkuplink time division ratio of 3 to 1)," he noted.
With this capability, Tan said, Yes can be a competent challenger to the incumbents with the niche of offering rich and high definition voice and text services over a pure advance data network supported by IMS, without the worry of legacy voice network.
"We believe that compatible devices will be abundant in the near future on the back of China's commitment following recent TD-LTE licence awards which also consist of 2.3GHz spectrum. Notably, this (LTE band 40) is supported by iPhone 5S (model A1530)," he pointed out.
"If Yes does invade the LTE market as such, this will undoubtedly elevate the competition in the cellular space one notch higher, while benefiting the fixed players through data bandwidth wholesale for backhaul transmission. Overall, this coincides with our sector outlook whereby we prefer fixed," he said. - The Sundaily
Full article: http://www.malaysia-chronicle.com/index.php?option=com_k2&view=item&id=223761:ytl-may-dump-wimax-for-lte&Itemid=3#ixzz2scQ7uH4V Follow us: @MsiaChronicle on Twitter
The LTE technology apply by YTLP is TDD-LTE. Migration and switch its Wimax to TDD-LTE is just matter of adding a channel card as all its exiting transmission tower develop since 2010 are LTE ready platform.
YTLP already anticipate future migration to LTE ever since they start venture into broadband 3 year ago, but opt for Wimax first as these tech is more mature at that time and more advance than 3G in 2010. Its Wimax spectrum still applicable to 1BesteriNet project (15year contract) since its only demanding speed 4mbp and mainly use for data sourcing rather than need to migrate to TDD-LTE for seamless HD video which more customize for ech savvy retail customer
YTL communication CEO Wing Lee bets on 4G in Malaysia (Q&A)
How many base stations do you have so far?
Lee: We have over 4,000 base stations. That gives us 85 percent population coverage. We'll be adding LTE. We already have a 4G network based on WiMax. I used to work at Clearwire, so I know something about WiMax.
We are not religious about this. WiMax was the best technology in the toolbox four years ago when we first started this deployment. You cannot keep waiting and waiting for technology. Technology evolution happens all the time, so we built our network to be a flat IP [Internet Protocol] network, so any IP-based technology can plug into our network. For us, adding LTE is as simple as adding a channel card.
So was two years enough to get a return on investment on all that WiMax hardware?
Lee: Absolutely not. That's why we're keeping our WiMax network running. If you look at WiMax and LTE from a technology standpoint, WiMax is actually quite mature. The cost per bit is reasonable and the performance is there. There's still lots of opportunity to monetize our WiMax network. A lot of data-centric applications do not require LTE. You need LTE for the most part to take advantage of those new fancy devices. If it's just a data dongle, a home gateway, who cares whether it's WiMax or LTE, so long as it's got a good price point and good performance. So we use LTE to augment our existing network
But what about the issue of network capacity? Are the networks going to get bogged down? Lee: Yes, they will. That's why many operators are really trying to do LTE on a phased manner. LTE runs on a higher frequency band -- 1.8GHz, 1.9Ghz, 2.3GHz, 2.5GHz, 2.6GHz. In order to take full advantage of LTE, you need to take advantage of high-capacity bands. A lot of operators have to build more base stations in order to provide the same footprint.
You have to be closer.
Lee: Precisely, because the high frequencies don't propagate as far. Therefore the radii of the base station would decrease. When that decreases you have to add more base stations. Otherwise you have drops left and right. The existing base station buildout has to be relooked at. It's very expensive. Rental payments are very expensive. Also, with a single base station, there are only so many single concurrent users you can take on. It's not a huge number. So [carriers] have to embrace small cell [base stations that have shorter communication ranges]. Small cells as a physical device is not expensive, but deployment of small cells -- rental payments, opex -- is high. So it'll be several years before there is true high-capacity LTE network. What we have built in Malaysia -- at the high frequency band -- has positioned us very well to compete for the long term.
Reading posting from hng, Project 3B will know the decision by next Wednesday Cabinet meeting.
Somehow i think 1MDB stands a better chance as this project is politically incline. 1MDB is badly needed this as catalyst to list their assets in Bursa.
With LTE added, YTLP will have competitive edge and at least at par with big rival like MAXIS. It do more good than harm. This has high hope on future share price.
Notice that in announcement, the shares buyback will reach 10% soon. What will likely the next thing be transpired by YTLP ? very interesting. ^^
Look at the dividend yield for REITs. Starhill GBL provide 5c div throughout the year. Base on current price at 76.5c, the div yielding is around 6.5%. I would think it is ok for me to go for div since it is fall under my minimum requirement of 6%. If you prefer div yeilding at around 7%, probably you might need to wait till it traded at around 71c before start entering.^^
Very much depend on your preference. Good Luck. ^^
Fat Cat Tim Buddy develop yes4g was a mistake, so far ,it is proven.. 3 years non-stop losing money..
in the future maybe it will be very profitable.. or not.. who know..
one thing for sure is, ytlpower shareholders has been punished since ytl-p acquire yes4g from ytl-e , i wonder why no shareholders reject the proposal of buying yes4g at that time?
hng33 Lets think again, if without Yes Wimax, YTLP won't be able to secure 1Bestarinet project, contract for 15 year worth RM 4.5b + Virtual learning Frog + chromebook, derive stream of consistent fees from gov RM 300m /year......Just completed end of of last year and will start contributing these year onwards. YTLP Yes Wimax offer more than 1BestariNet requirement, minimum speed 4Mbt. Therefore, YTLP will retain Wimax for 1BestarNet and parallel migrate to LTE for retail customer
CAP have 20% dividend policy that state in its IPO for financial year ending 2013 and 2014. In addition, Chinese Yuan also strengthen against RM from 1 Yuan : 0.52 RM to current 1 Yuan : 0.55 RM.
Based on estimate EPF 15sen for 2013, its dividend payout should be 3sen, consist of 1 sen interim and expected 2 sen upcoming final dividend.
Since CAP bonus issue involve only free warrant (unlike Right or private placement which have immediate dilution earning), its financial won't be affect in the short term. Therefore, the dividend policy should be able to materialize, at least reward shareholder.
At current 29sen, i think downside risk should be minimum and plan to hold on till it announce Q4 result + final dividend
Remark: CAP is china base company, investor must bear its risk and reward higher than local base company
What is your view on YTLP when it hit 10% of shares buyback ?
3 possible ways will happen :- 1. Cancel and resume share buyback by another 10%. ^^ 2. Distribute back as shares dividend. ^^ 3. Do nothing and cease shares buyback.
I hope YTLP will continue adopt option 1 as this provide longterm price stabilisation and upsurge possible. YTLP started shares buyback since July 2013, it been more than 6 months now. Option 1 will at least provide another 6 months of shares buyback, chances of breaching RM2 mark is very high. ^^
Maxis said it had invested RM815mil in financial year 2013, mainly for the expansion of its 4G coverage footprint and population coverage.
The company noted that it currently commanded the widest 4G coverage footprint, covering 15% of the population within a year of roll-out.....
Maxis spent RM 815m for 4g LTE expansion (2x 20Mhz 150Mbps) and yet only have 15%$ coverage !!?? YTLP already have 85% coverage, but is for 4g Wimax....however, migration and switch its 4g Wimax to 4g LTE is just matter of adding a channel card as all its exiting transmission tower develop since 2010 are flat IP network, in which all its all its transmission tower are LTE ready platform. YTLP upcoming migration from its 4g Wimax to 4g LTE will be very fast, its coverage can immediate reach 85% if it opt for total migration and its speed is much faster (2x 30Mhz 220Mbps, assuming YTLP acquire Asianspace 30Mhz spectrum, double up its spectrum to 2x 30 Mhz = 60 Mhz) )
YTLP already have upper hand, far ahead of other telco in 4g network, once its start migrating its 4gWimax to 4g LTE on its existing transmission tower, it can claim immediate no 1 coverage and out-beat other telco in the race to vow high end user.
YTLP from the start in 2010 already build its transmission tower on high-capacity bands, which already has positioned itself very well ahead of other telcos. LTE runs on a higher frequency band -- 1.8GHz, 1.9Ghz, 2.3GHz, 2.5GHz, 2.6GHz. A lot of these telco operators have to build a lot more base stations in order to provide the same footprint like YTLP high-capacity bands tower. This is because telco adopt small cell [base stations that have shorter communication ranges]. Small cells as a physical device is not expensive, but deployment of small cells on top of shoplot - rental payments - capex -- is high. vs. YTLP High-capacity bands transmission tower build within gov school compound, rental free)
Treasury at 9.58%, very near to 10% level already now, sbb hold back every time if there is huge seller volume.... in order to drag more time for sbb till Q2 result is release end of these month. The problem is seller seem unknown.....they should just delay the selling tomorrow, as sbb will restart absorb them again. Time is essence, sbb must average down remaining 0.42% available quota for next 10 trading day.
Nonetheless, it is solely my prediction.....based on trading pattern of recent sbb....give rise to some sort of correlation between sbb volume, its treasury % in relate to upcoming Q2 result or also could possible time drag in order for YTLP to seek bursa waiver if it trigger MGO once its cancel treasury stock.
If no mistaken there is provision rule set by bursa that if any of the company control more than 33% but below 75%, cannot increase their stake more than 2% in 6 month, otherwise it will trigger mandatory take over code. Of course there is also provision that they can seek approval from bursa for waiver.
As YTLcorp control 46.72% of YTLP + Yeoh through private company (Yeoh & son + conerstone + Bara Aktif) and individual family member collectively control another 13.24%, therefore if 9.58% treasury stake is cancel all now, both YTL corp or Yeoh control stake will increase more than threshold 2%, thereby could trigger MGO code......
It could however opt to seek waiver from Bursa or opt to cancel only partial treasury stock like 3% every 6 month and restart sbb again to accumulate back to 10%, or of course It could straight cancel all and trigger MCO lead to privatization of YTLP
YTLP first treasury cancellation was on 28 Aug 2013, in which it cancelled about 3.5% or 250m share. Therefore, if wanna to avoid triggering take over code, the next permissible cancellation is 6 month away or 28 Feb 2014.
I think for YTLP to cancel it treasury stock, it is more correlate with the rules set by bursa in which 6 month time is needed for subsequently treasury cancellation to avoid take over code. From first treasury cancellation on 28 Aug, its next cancellation only can happen after 28 Feb, possible explain sbb staggering its sbb activity to drag from reach 10% quota utill 28 Feb
It seem YTLP's buyback would not be aggressively being triggered anymore. They need to drag till financial result by end this month. Sellers overwhelming buyers. :(
Judging from the selling behavior, it look like the main culprit is selling pressure from LTH remaining stake, which initial holding 1.99% and start selloff beginning of last Dec due to YTLP non-syariah compliance. EPF is just join seller, as their selling volume is much lower in total daily volume
Last time LTH selling sending YTLP share to the lowest 1.78, lets see what will happen these time.
I still believe current selling is temporary, once sbb reach 10% and after 28 Feb, the 6 month period away from first batch 28 Aug cancellation last year, YTLP will at least opt for another 3.5% or 250m share second batch treasury cancellation.
Remark: 6 month period is needed to avoid triggering take over code
YTLP-WB have more than 4.5 year lifespan and currently trading at almost 0 premium. If any of the good news set in for YTLP, like turnaround Yes broadband/project 3B/acquire new accretive assets etc. Every 10% increase in YTLP share price, implying 30% increase in wb. Therefore, if average YTLP increase share price 10% in next 4year or RM 2.60 (recover back to share price last 2010 before venture into Yes broadband), wb should theoretically soear more han double current value to above RM 1.30 or about 25% return pa
YTL corp: 44.89% vs. 46.72% Connerstone: 6.35% vs. 6.61% Yeoh & son: 3.73% vs. 3.88% Bara Aktif: 2.08% vs. 2.13% Yeoh individual member 0.54% vs. 0.58%
The overall change in stake in about 2.37%, more than 2%, but after take into consideration dilution if about 8% warrant conversion i, the figure is about 2% increase. 14/02/2014 11:04
Yeoh is very smart, it will rather wait until their stake reach 70% before opt to privatize YTLP. It is currently make use of YTLP own capital to continue sbb and effectively increase its stake gradually.
I predict, if YTLP opt to cancel second 3.5% treasury stake after 28 Feb, their stake will increase by another 2% to about 62%. then continue sbb again from remaining 6.5% to back to 10% in 6 month time and cancel third batch another 3.5% after 28 Aug 2014, increase stake 2% again to 64%, continue sbb again from 6.5% to 10%, then only straight cancel all these 10% treasury stake, boosting Yeoh to more than 70% by end of these year, trigger take over code, privatize YTLP by end of these year.
40 comments:
PAVREIT - Sold at 1.28, bought all back at 1.27. ^^
Horse
REITs still your favorite
Teng,
Yes, still prefer REITs at this juncture. KLCI is having some turbulence time now, better park to REITs temporary. ^^
Hng
Publicinvest research in its report today said 1MDB won 3B power project
YTL Power: 1MDB has displaced rivals YTL Power as the front runner in the tender for the 2000MW coal fired power plant known as Project 3B.
Sources say EC has decided to propose 1MDB as the preferred bidder for the rm11 billion planting up exercise to the Ministry. The final decision still rests with the cabinet.
1Malaysia Development Bhd (1MDB) has displaced rivals
YTL Power International Bhd as the front runner in the tender for the 2,000MW
coal-fired power plant known as Project 3B.
According to industry sources, the board of the Energy Commission (EC) has
decided to propose 1MDB as the preferred bidder for the RM11 billion
planting-up exercise to the Ministry of Energy, Green Technology and Water.
The final decision still rests with the Cabinet.
If the tender is awarded to 1MDB, it will be the catalyst that the
government-owned entity needs to list RM10.8 billion worth of power
generation assets it has acquired over the past few years.
The decision, however, is contrary to the recommendations of the EC’s own
technical evaluation committee and has come under scrutiny from both local
and international power players. After all, the EC has been bandying around
the transparency and fairness of its open tenders for planting-up projects.
The Edge reported earlier, citing documents sighted, that the EC’s technical
evaluation committee had recommended YTL Power as the preferred bidder for
the tender in December last year. Based on the documents, YTL Power had
put in the lowest adjusted tariff of 25.23 sen per kW hour compared with
1MDB’s adjusted bid of 25.65 sen. The 0.42 sen difference is estimated to be
worth around RM2 billion over the 25-year concession.
It was widely expected that the Cabinet would decide on the award of the
project at its meeting yesterday but according to sources, the EC’s proposal
was not tabled.
According to sources, part of the board’s rationale for selecting 1MDB over YTL Power had to do with YTL Power’s equipment supplier
from South Korea, Doosan, which allegedly does not meet the necessary requirements. However, based on the report by the technical
evaluation committee to the board, all concerns about Doosan’s capability to undertake the project have been dismissed.
The location of the proposed plant is another reason the EC’s board is favouring 1MDB. 1MDB’s proposed site is in Jimah, Negeri
Sembilan, next to the existing 1,400MW coal-fired Jimah Power station that it is acquiring from the Negeri Sembilan royal family. 1MDB’s
injection point is at Olak Lempit, Selangor, which is much closer to the primary load centre in the Klang Valley.
In comparison, YTL Power’s proposed site in Tanjung Tohor, Johor will use the Yong Peng East, Johor as its injection point (a point of
connection where electricity flows into the national grid from generation plant). Since Yong Peng is further from the load centre, there
should be higher transmission losses in the form of energy lost through heat over the distance.
However, some industry players claim it is unlikely that transmission losses alone will be able to justify the 0.43 sen difference in tariff.
They estimate 2% to 3% difference in transmission loss for a 500kv line and about 5% loss for a 275kv line.
On top of that, it was the EC which originally named the five nodal points for bidders to use in their proposals as injection points. Once the
power reaches the injection point, managing transmission losses will be the responsibility of Tenaga Nasional Bhd.
“The tender was to offer a tariff as at the injection point. After that, it is Tenaga’s responsibility. Why would the EC name a nodal point for
bidders to use when it is less than ideal?” asked one industry player.
At a time when electricity tariffs are on the rise, the public will be watching the tender closely. A decision could be made as soon as next
Wednesday when the Cabinet meets again.
Still uncertain yet,
First round, EC technical evaluation committee favor YTLP (professional team),
Second round EC board favor 1MDB (board member are political nominee) and now
Final round battle will scale up to cabinet level (real political fight)
In the cabinet, there will be fight between DPM (former MB johor, task by Sultan to fight against vs. PM.....
Some may argue 1MDB is state own, therefore should in favor, but 1MDB operation is not transparent, its brainchild of PM and chair by him alone. A lot of power asset acquire are nearly expire or half way of their concession. 1MDB is debt laden with cash flow from concession barely meet interest expense and therefore in urgency to raise fund from IPO.
I think even in the end, 1MDB really win 3B project, there will be some under table deal, in which YTLP existing going expire power asset may either sell to 1MDB to totally pull out of Malaysia power sector or grant another 10 year extension.
Based on YTLP shareholding and public spread
YTL corp: 46.72%
Yeoh family: 13.24% (stake are via Yeoh & son + cornerstone + Bara Aktif)
Funds under PNB: 11.56% (SASB, value cap, ASM etc)
Treasury stock: 9.43%
EPF: 6.42%
Kumpulan wang persaraan: 3.19%
LTH: 1.99%
Summary
Total stake under Yeoh control: 69.39% (YTL + Yeoh family + treasury)
Total stake under GLC: 23.06% (PNB + EPF + KWP + LTH)
Retail investor: 7.55%
Odds is still 50:50 for YTLP vs 1MDB
Lets look the edge between YTLP and 1MDB
1. Free cash rich (RM 9.6b) vs, debt laden
2. First IPP player and experience vs, newcomer and lack experience
3. Lowest bid vs. second lowest bid in tender
4. Partner with Sultan Johor + well connection with M vs. current PM
5. Power plant in Johor to replace expire Pasir Gudang vs. Negeri Sembilan
6. Power supply to Iskandar vs. Klang Valley
Most likely its power plant in Paka and Pasir Gudang even after expire will sell back to 1MDB, which later could secure extension concession or sell outright to TNB as its backup power plant. The selling price will depend on Gov, TNB and YTLP negotiation. These power plant unlikely to undergo dismantle as setting up new such power plant, will cost at least RM 5 billion. Even, the power plant have more than 20year old, but as long as its broiler still functional, it can be reserve as back up power plant in future.
Alternatively, YTLP will wan to proceed to power generation even without concession agreement, act as freelance....Its plant can supply power at very low price to TNB as it cost merely from freed stock gas only + afford profit margin 5% only. Unlikely current IPP and TNB own power plant, their cost is much higher as it need to input its power construction cost in + freed stock gas + expected profit margin 10%
If YTLP indeed failed to secure project 3b, there is no harm at all, as shareholder will not wan to wait for another round of huge capex spending till 2018 to build 2000MW again. Shareholder benefit already penalize by YTLP in 2010 until now to develop Yes broadband by cutting down quarterly dividend......, which is only these year onward, Yes broadband is expect to breakeven and turnaround into profit after completion of 1BestariNet. Its reward time now.
It could have some Knee Jerk reaction if YTLP failed, but share price will well supported by company sbb. It YTLP success instead, it is bonus. As the capex if as much as RM12bilion over next 4 year, only 2000MW is ready in 2018-2019. Assuming 20:80 equity:debt financing, YTLP need to conserve as much RM 2.4bilion to be spend in next 4 year, which is about same amount of capex in 2010, when YTLP indicate that it need RM 2.5bilion to develop Yes broadband....resulting cutting down quarterly dividend for shareholder....If YTLP win 3b project, YTLP may force to stop sbb in order to conserve its cash for capex to develop 2000MW power plant again.
About unfavourable knee-jerk reaction to ytlpwr IF not getting 3B... already mention here previously, there is minimal impact of YTLP earning even after its IPP expire in next year Sept, as it is offset by expected turnaround of its Yes broadband after completion of 1BestariNet project end of last year.
About 3B project, which is only about to contribute earning later 2018/2019 and its internal rate return only at 6-8% the most, if failed to secure now, YTLP future potential earning growth from 3B can be easily replace by its Enefit Jordan project, oil shale production and power plant, which also ready by 2017-2019. The construction of its first power plant 540MW is scheduled to commence these year after its have secure financing US 1.4bilion from Bank of China and Industrial Commercial bank of China.
弃用WiMAX 进军LTE 传YES购Asiaspace 4G频谱
2014-02-07 10:47
（吉隆坡6日讯）消息透露，杨忠礼电力（YTLPOWR，6742，主板基建股）旗下的YES 4G，或收购Asiaspace私人有限公司的4G频谱，以筹备推介4G LTE网络服务，放弃现用的WiMAX科技。
根据消息来源，YES 4G目前不只对本身拥有的2.6吉赫（GHz）中20兆赫（MHz）及服务中的WiMAX频谱进行测试，更惊讶的是，还对Asiaspace在2.3吉赫中30兆赫频谱进行测试。
多媒体委员会（MCMC）在2010年，共分配4G频谱予9家电讯业者，包括Asiaspace，但该公司的WiMAX服务无法成行，目前处于闲置状态。
随着YES 4G针对Asiaspace拥有的频谱展开测试活动，消息人士相信，这意味着YES 4G有可能会收购Asiaspace的频谱。
对此，丰隆投行研究分析员认为，YES 4G弃用WiMAX科技属预料之内，因广泛相信这科技将渐被淘汰，而LTE科技对于电讯业者而言，是目前唯一符合科技提升逻辑的技术。
分析员指出，若YES 4G游说成功，获得Asiaspace的频谱，就可以顺利地将旗下现有WiMAX用户转移到LTE网络，同时提高服务素质。
转移完成后，YES 4G可全数使用2.3吉赫中60兆赫频谱，提供LTE网络服务，理论上下载速度高达220Mbps。
适用LTE产品
分析员说，有了这种功能，YES 4G不只存提供数据网络服务，还可以通过先进的数据网络，提供高清语音和简讯服务。
而且，随着中国最近承诺发展的TD-LTE科技包含2.3吉赫频谱，加上有iPhone 5S支援，短期内，合适LTE科技的电子产品款式将非常充足。
分析员续说，YES 4G若成功进军LTE市场，无疑将提高在流动电话市场的竞争力，还可将频宽批发给固定电话业者。
Remark: YTL Yes' CEO: "We will be adding LTE... For us, adding LTE is as simple as adding a channel card on exiting Wimax Transmission tower".
Hng
WiMAX is obsolete technology,and it is NOT real 4G ( even P1 and YTLP claim it is ). Question is if YTLpwer switch to LTE,it may need to install new tower ( WiMAX and LTE are two different technology). YTL communication CEO ' s comment that just adding channel card work? Also,YTL subscribers may need new modem if they want switch to LTE . Of course they can continue using WiMAX
I totally agreed with Teng, I think the CEO just said it as IF so easy or maybe the CEO also tak tahu.
PETALING JAYA - YTL Communications Sdn Bhd's, the telecommunications arm of YTL Corp Bhd, could be abandoning its WiMax service which it has adopted since November 2010 to roll out its long-term evolution (LTE) technology.
Hong Leong Investment Bank's analyst Tan J Young believes that Yes, the brand name of YTL Communications in Malaysia, has stared trial runs and is preparing to roll its Time Division Duplexing-Long-Term Evolution (TDD-LTE) soon.
"LTE trials are currently conducted not only on the 20MHz of 2.6GHz spectrum which was awarded by MCMC in 2012, but also on its 30MHz of 2.3GHz spectrum which is presently occupied by its commercial WiMAX business," he said in an note to investors today.
"Surprisingly, trials are also being carried out on Asiaspace Broadband Sdn Bhd's 30MHz allocation on the 2.3GHz band," he added.
This, he said, could indirectly mean that Yes could be eyeing to take over Asiaspace's spectrum which is currently idle as the latter's WiMAX business did not materialise.
Asiaspace was awarded the 2.3GHz spectrum in December 2012 and was one of the four operators along with P1, YTL's Yes4G and REDtone that received the WiMAX licence from the government in 2007.
A check on Asiaspace's website revealed that the company is planning to go ahead with its collaboration with YTL on infrastructure and spectrum sharing under an agreement now that it has a 2.3GHz spectrum.
"With the collaboration, there will be avoided duplicity of infrastructure and maximize the use of bandwidth for the wireless broadband services nationwide by both companies to provide quality and uninterrupted services," it siad.
Young said Yes' exit from WiMAX was an anticipated move as the technology is widely believed to be phasing out and LTE is the only logical technology progression for telcos.
"If Yes lobbies successfully for Asiaspace's spectrum, it will allow Yes to migrate its existing WiMAX subscribers to LTE seamlessly while providing better quality of service," he said.
"Upon complete migration, Yes could use the whole 60MHz of 2.3GHz to offer TDD-LTE with theoretical download speed of up to 220Mbps (assumed based on latest carrier aggregation technology with 2 component carriers coupled with downlinkuplink time division ratio of 3 to 1)," he noted.
With this capability, Tan said, Yes can be a competent challenger to the incumbents with the niche of offering rich and high definition voice and text services over a pure advance data network supported by IMS, without the worry of legacy voice network.
"We believe that compatible devices will be abundant in the near future on the back of China's commitment following recent TD-LTE licence awards which also consist of 2.3GHz spectrum. Notably, this (LTE band 40) is supported by iPhone 5S (model A1530)," he pointed out.
"If Yes does invade the LTE market as such, this will undoubtedly elevate the competition in the cellular space one notch higher, while benefiting the fixed players through data bandwidth wholesale for backhaul transmission. Overall, this coincides with our sector outlook whereby we prefer fixed," he said. - The Sundaily
Full article: http://www.malaysia-chronicle.com/index.php?option=com_k2&view=item&id=223761:ytl-may-dump-wimax-for-lte&Itemid=3#ixzz2scQ7uH4V
Follow us: @MsiaChronicle on Twitter
The LTE technology apply by YTLP is TDD-LTE. Migration and switch its Wimax to TDD-LTE is just matter of adding a channel card as all its exiting transmission tower develop since 2010 are LTE ready platform.
YTLP already anticipate future migration to LTE ever since they start venture into broadband 3 year ago, but opt for Wimax first as these tech is more mature at that time and more advance than 3G in 2010. Its Wimax spectrum still applicable to 1BesteriNet project (15year contract) since its only demanding speed 4mbp and mainly use for data sourcing rather than need to migrate to TDD-LTE for seamless HD video which more customize for ech savvy retail customer
YTL communication CEO Wing Lee bets on 4G in Malaysia (Q&A)
How many base stations do you have so far?
Lee: We have over 4,000 base stations. That gives us 85 percent population coverage. We'll be adding LTE. We already have a 4G network based on WiMax. I used to work at Clearwire, so I know something about WiMax.
We are not religious about this. WiMax was the best technology in the toolbox four years ago when we first started this deployment. You cannot keep waiting and waiting for technology. Technology evolution happens all the time, so we built our network to be a flat IP [Internet Protocol] network, so any IP-based technology can plug into our network. For us, adding LTE is as simple as adding a channel card.
So was two years enough to get a return on investment on all that WiMax hardware?
Lee: Absolutely not. That's why we're keeping our WiMax network running. If you look at WiMax and LTE from a technology standpoint, WiMax is actually quite mature. The cost per bit is reasonable and the performance is there. There's still lots of opportunity to monetize our WiMax network. A lot of data-centric applications do not require LTE. You need LTE for the most part to take advantage of those new fancy devices. If it's just a data dongle, a home gateway, who cares whether it's WiMax or LTE, so long as it's got a good price point and good performance. So we use LTE to augment our existing network
But what about the issue of network capacity? Are the networks going to get bogged down?
Lee: Yes, they will. That's why many operators are really trying to do LTE on a phased manner. LTE runs on a higher frequency band -- 1.8GHz, 1.9Ghz, 2.3GHz, 2.5GHz, 2.6GHz. In order to take full advantage of LTE, you need to take advantage of high-capacity bands. A lot of operators have to build more base stations in order to provide the same footprint.
You have to be closer.
Lee: Precisely, because the high frequencies don't propagate as far. Therefore the radii of the base station would decrease. When that decreases you have to add more base stations. Otherwise you have drops left and right. The existing base station buildout has to be relooked at. It's very expensive. Rental payments are very expensive. Also, with a single base station, there are only so many single concurrent users you can take on. It's not a huge number. So [carriers] have to embrace small cell [base stations that have shorter communication ranges]. Small cells as a physical device is not expensive, but deployment of small cells -- rental payments, opex -- is high. So it'll be several years before there is true high-capacity LTE network. What we have built in Malaysia -- at the high frequency band -- has positioned us very well to compete for the long term.
學生可攜帶平板電腦 學校採電子課本教學
吉隆坡7日訊）第二教育部長拿督斯里依德利斯祖索指出，教育部今年開始，將在全國學校分階段實施運用電子課本教學，學生可攜帶iPad等平板電腦上課，以取代傳統課本。
雖然如此，教育部仍禁止學生攜帶手機到校；同時，也保留傳統的印刷課本。
他指出，為提供國際及高質量教育，並讓學生隨時隨地翻閱課本溫習，教育部已經電子化313本學校課本
Reading posting from hng, Project 3B will know the decision by next Wednesday Cabinet meeting.
Somehow i think 1MDB stands a better chance as this project is politically incline. 1MDB is badly needed this as catalyst to list their assets in Bursa.
With LTE added, YTLP will have competitive edge and at least at par with big rival like MAXIS. It do more good than harm.
This has high hope on future share price.
Notice that in announcement, the shares buyback will reach 10% soon. What will likely the next thing be transpired by YTLP ? very interesting. ^^
Good Luck all ^^
Business News
Published: Saturday February 8, 2014 MYT 12:00:00 AM
Intense lobbying has stalled decision-making for the 2,000MW coal-fired power plant under Project 3B
http://www.thestar.com.my/Business/Business-News/2014/02/08/Power-politics-Intense-lobbying-has-stalled-decisionmaking-for-the-2000MW-coalfired-power-plant-und/
Horse
Need to ask you about Singapore REIT;
Any comments about star hill global ? Thanks
Derick,
Look at the dividend yield for REITs. Starhill GBL provide 5c div throughout the year. Base on current price at 76.5c, the div yielding is around 6.5%. I would think it is ok for me to go for div since it is fall under my minimum requirement of 6%. If you prefer div yeilding at around 7%, probably you might need to wait till it traded at around 71c before start entering.^^
Very much depend on your preference. Good Luck. ^^
Fat Cat Tim Buddy
develop yes4g was a mistake, so far ,it is proven.. 3 years non-stop losing money..
in the future maybe it will be very profitable.. or not.. who know..
one thing for sure is, ytlpower shareholders has been punished since ytl-p acquire yes4g from ytl-e , i wonder why no shareholders reject the proposal of buying yes4g at that time?
hng33
Lets think again, if without Yes Wimax, YTLP won't be able to secure 1Bestarinet project, contract for 15 year worth RM 4.5b + Virtual learning Frog + chromebook, derive stream of consistent fees from gov RM 300m /year......Just completed end of of last year and will start contributing these year onwards. YTLP Yes Wimax offer more than 1BestariNet requirement, minimum speed 4Mbt. Therefore, YTLP will retain Wimax for 1BestarNet and parallel migrate to LTE for retail customer
Thanks horse for your advise.
Adds back CAP in portfolio, bought today at 29sen
CAP have 20% dividend policy that state in its IPO for financial year ending 2013 and 2014. In addition, Chinese Yuan also strengthen against RM from 1 Yuan : 0.52 RM to current 1 Yuan : 0.55 RM.
Based on estimate EPF 15sen for 2013, its dividend payout should be 3sen, consist of 1 sen interim and expected 2 sen upcoming final dividend.
Since CAP bonus issue involve only free warrant (unlike Right or private placement which have immediate dilution earning), its financial won't be affect in the short term. Therefore, the dividend policy should be able to materialize, at least reward shareholder.
At current 29sen, i think downside risk should be minimum and plan to hold on till it announce Q4 result + final dividend
Remark: CAP is china base company, investor must bear its risk and reward higher than local base company
YTLP-WB trade at discount to mother.?
SUNREIT - Bought at 1.26-1.27.
PAVREIT - Sold at 1.31.
CMMT - Sold at 1.39-1.40.
hng,
What is your view on YTLP when it hit 10% of shares buyback ?
3 possible ways will happen :-
1. Cancel and resume share buyback by another 10%. ^^
2. Distribute back as shares dividend. ^^
3. Do nothing and cease shares buyback.
I hope YTLP will continue adopt option 1 as this provide longterm price stabilisation and upsurge possible. YTLP started shares buyback since July 2013, it been more than 6 months now. Option 1 will at least provide another 6 months of shares buyback, chances of breaching RM2 mark is very high. ^^
Good Luck. ^^
Agreed, you have line down all possible scenario. Lets wait for the outcome very soon.
Maxis said it had invested RM815mil in financial year 2013, mainly for the expansion of its 4G coverage footprint and population coverage.
The company noted that it currently commanded the widest 4G coverage footprint, covering 15% of the population within a year of roll-out.....
Maxis spent RM 815m for 4g LTE expansion (2x 20Mhz 150Mbps) and yet only have 15%$ coverage !!??
YTLP already have 85% coverage, but is for 4g Wimax....however, migration and switch its 4g Wimax to 4g LTE is just matter of adding a channel card as all its exiting transmission tower develop since 2010 are flat IP network, in which all its all its transmission tower are LTE ready platform. YTLP upcoming migration from its 4g Wimax to 4g LTE will be very fast, its coverage can immediate reach 85% if it opt for total migration and its speed is much faster (2x 30Mhz 220Mbps, assuming YTLP acquire Asianspace 30Mhz spectrum, double up its spectrum to 2x 30 Mhz = 60 Mhz) )
YTLP already have upper hand, far ahead of other telco in 4g network, once its start migrating its 4gWimax to 4g LTE on its existing transmission tower, it can claim immediate no 1 coverage and out-beat other telco in the race to vow high end user.
YTLP from the start in 2010 already build its transmission tower on high-capacity bands, which already has positioned itself very well ahead of other telcos. LTE runs on a higher frequency band -- 1.8GHz, 1.9Ghz, 2.3GHz, 2.5GHz, 2.6GHz. A lot of these telco operators have to build a lot more base stations in order to provide the same footprint like YTLP high-capacity bands tower. This is because telco adopt small cell [base stations that have shorter communication ranges]. Small cells as a physical device is not expensive, but deployment of small cells on top of shoplot - rental payments - capex -- is high. vs. YTLP High-capacity bands transmission tower build within gov school compound, rental free)
horse
Treasury at 9.58%, very near to 10% level already now, sbb hold back every time if there is huge seller volume.... in order to drag more time for sbb till Q2 result is release end of these month. The problem is seller seem unknown.....they should just delay the selling tomorrow, as sbb will restart absorb them again. Time is essence, sbb must average down remaining 0.42% available quota for next 10 trading day.
Nonetheless, it is solely my prediction.....based on trading pattern of recent sbb....give rise to some sort of correlation between sbb volume, its treasury % in relate to upcoming Q2 result or also could possible time drag in order for YTLP to seek bursa waiver if it trigger MGO once its cancel treasury stock.
If no mistaken there is provision rule set by bursa that if any of the company control more than 33% but below 75%, cannot increase their stake more than 2% in 6 month, otherwise it will trigger mandatory take over code. Of course there is also provision that they can seek approval from bursa for waiver.
As YTLcorp control 46.72% of YTLP + Yeoh through private company (Yeoh & son + conerstone + Bara Aktif) and individual family member collectively control another 13.24%, therefore if 9.58% treasury stake is cancel all now, both YTL corp or Yeoh control stake will increase more than threshold 2%, thereby could trigger MGO code......
It could however opt to seek waiver from Bursa or opt to cancel only partial treasury stock like 3% every 6 month and restart sbb again to accumulate back to 10%, or of course It could straight cancel all and trigger MCO lead to privatization of YTLP
YTLP first treasury cancellation was on 28 Aug 2013, in which it cancelled about 3.5% or 250m share. Therefore, if wanna to avoid triggering take over code, the next permissible cancellation is 6 month away or 28 Feb 2014.
I think for YTLP to cancel it treasury stock, it is more correlate with the rules set by bursa in which 6 month time is needed for subsequently treasury cancellation to avoid take over code. From first treasury cancellation on 28 Aug, its next cancellation only can happen after 28 Feb, possible explain sbb staggering its sbb activity to drag from reach 10% quota utill 28 Feb
PAVREIT - Sold at 1.30. ^^
SUNREIT - Buy more at 1.24 - 1.25 ^^
hng,
It seem YTLP's buyback would not be aggressively being triggered anymore. They need to drag till financial result by end this month. Sellers overwhelming buyers. :(
Judging from the selling behavior, it look like the main culprit is selling pressure from LTH remaining stake, which initial holding 1.99% and start selloff beginning of last Dec due to YTLP non-syariah compliance. EPF is just join seller, as their selling volume is much lower in total daily volume
Last time LTH selling sending YTLP share to the lowest 1.78, lets see what will happen these time.
I still believe current selling is temporary, once sbb reach 10% and after 28 Feb, the 6 month period away from first batch 28 Aug cancellation last year, YTLP will at least opt for another 3.5% or 250m share second batch treasury cancellation.
Remark: 6 month period is needed to avoid triggering take over code
YTLP-WB have more than 4.5 year lifespan and currently trading at almost 0 premium. If any of the good news set in for YTLP, like turnaround Yes broadband/project 3B/acquire new accretive assets etc. Every 10% increase in YTLP share price, implying 30% increase in wb. Therefore, if average YTLP increase share price 10% in next 4year or RM 2.60 (recover back to share price last 2010 before venture into Yes broadband), wb should theoretically soear more han double current value to above RM 1.30 or about 25% return pa
Annual report 2012 vs. 2013
YTL corp: 44.89% vs. 46.72%
Connerstone: 6.35% vs. 6.61%
Yeoh & son: 3.73% vs. 3.88%
Bara Aktif: 2.08% vs. 2.13%
Yeoh individual member 0.54% vs. 0.58%
The overall change in stake in about 2.37%, more than 2%, but after take into consideration dilution if about 8% warrant conversion i, the figure is about 2% increase.
14/02/2014 11:04
Yeoh is very smart, it will rather wait until their stake reach 70% before opt to privatize YTLP. It is currently make use of YTLP own capital to continue sbb and effectively increase its stake gradually.
I predict, if YTLP opt to cancel second 3.5% treasury stake after 28 Feb, their stake will increase by another 2% to about 62%. then continue sbb again from remaining 6.5% to back to 10% in 6 month time and cancel third batch another 3.5% after 28 Aug 2014, increase stake 2% again to 64%, continue sbb again from 6.5% to 10%, then only straight cancel all these 10% treasury stake, boosting Yeoh to more than 70% by end of these year, trigger take over code, privatize YTLP by end of these year.
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