Recommendation: BUY ON WEAKNESS
Current Price: RM4.24 (Issued shares: 1351.03m; Marketcap: RM1.41bn)
Technical Target: RM4.68 (3-month)
Catalysts:
(1) Defensive play amid external volatility;
(2) Although only getting a small boost from the agent fees (rather than running the book), the sports betting business is a risk-free revenue straight to bottom-line. Malaysia’s sports betting revenue may reach RM20b, based on 1.5% GDP (as seen in Singapore and Hong Kong);
(3) Potential Vietnam NFO licence may be next earnings growth drivers;
(4) Agency fees from sports betting to partly mitigate 4D’s matured growth and loss of lotto market share to Magnum; and
(5) There is a possibility that BJTOTO may declare higher or special dividends to help BJLAND fund redemption of the latter’s RM711m bonds maturing in Aug 11. Major risk is the recent ban on sports betting by three states.
A defensive and high yield play
Source : HLG Research
21 comments:
Update portfolio + Ultramargin line
1. Kfima 100% (cost: 95sen)
2. Manulife 32% (cost 2.61)
3. PJ devel 19.6% (cost 73sen)
4. Maxis 8.9% (cost 5.25)
5. MWE 8.1% (cost 94.5sen)
6. OKA 5.2% (cost 60.3sen)
Second portfolio + margin line
1. Chuan 16.2% (cost 60.5sen)
2. CCM duopharma 15% (cost 2.40)
3. Classic scenic 10% (cost 74.5sen
hi hng bro.. i been watching your portfolio since you first publish it. Thanks for sharing your thought. I see you been collecting manulife.. any reason behind this? I believe others like KURNIA, MNRB and Allianz offer similar opprotunity, why not them?
If we scan thru our local market, our insurance stock has seldom perform on par of its peers in the region, even in the world. not to say LPI, the only insurance and investment related stock that fetch slightly high premium. Other than div play on this, I believe others are worth a second though for a defensive play.
Just some tots.
Urban
My main reason on Manulife is its dividend of 17sen, i've accumulate these stock to more than 100% holding at average cost of 2.61, but have subsequently sold most of manulife at average 2.656, realize just about 1.2% net margin, but in term of absolute return, still record quite handsome return due to larger volume which work only if downside risk is limited. in current volatile market, one should be satisfy if portfolio continue record positive return even the percentage is low compared to last year bull market.
i used to weight on MNRB (Reinsurance and takalful ikhlas) for its consistent dividend last few year, but after it disposed of MOX, its result getting unpredictable and have seem lost its peers as high dividend yield stock.
On the other hand, kurniAsia (General insurer) also in struggle to breakeven it Motor insurance segment, and already in more management claim ratio recently, will wait longer for its consistency.
Allianze (life and investment link insurer) although good in earning but pay too little dividend
Update portfolio + Margin line
1. Kfima 100% (cost: 95sen)
2. Manulife 32% (cost 2.61)
3. PJ devel 19.6% (cost 73sen)
4. MBF 18.3% (cost 69.6sen)
5. MWE 8.1% (cost 94.5sen)
6. OKA 5.2% (cost 60.3sen)
Second portfolio + margin line
1. Chuan 16.2% (cost 60.5sen)
2. CCM duopharma 10.4% (cost 2.40)
3. Classic scenic 10% (cost 74.5sen
hng,
see you ease a lot of your margin line. :)
you are very right on MNRB, it used to be a high dividend yielding but not anymore, now even run into -ve zone. :(
hi Hng,
Sure thing. Thanks for the explanation. I do see manu is giving div around the corner. as for MNRB, I do agree. getting inconsistent since then. But will the consolidation of the industry will have any future changes on it? In takaful slice, I believe they are well position besides other player like takaful my and etiqa. If any of this are to merge, I think it will be very exciting.
Kurasia... general insurance is a low margin biz. but with growing revenue from their life and changes in regulation of the industry (GI), I think the biz will be slightly more exciting. as well as introduction of retakaful of GI sooner or later. but one thing make me sit unwell with it will be the departure of their head. currently their investment out of their premium is still attractive.
allianz wise, i agree on you. but still, it is too undervalued even if no solid div policy is laid out. but still, with competitive industry in the country and no strong rewarding policy, i do have a second though before jumping in.
Urban
For insurance player, investment return either from stock/money market/forex/bond consist quite a large portion of their earning beside surplus from every year premium. Therefore, insurer earning affect also by its investment gain/loss.
There are getting more and more takaful player in these industry from older and larger Syarikat takaful to new comer takalful ikhlas, tokio marine takaful etc competing slice of market share and yet Bank Negara seem still very keen to give out more and more license to foreign player especially from Arab. In time to come, consolidation is expected similar to what have happen to banking industry.
About MNRB, its reinsurnace niche may soon expire and Bank Negara is due to open to other player as well. In summary, insurance industry is quite challenging, one must act quick to acquire market share as soon as possible.
Increase further stake of MBF holding, bought at 69sen-69.5sen. I'm bet for its proposed dividend of 10sen , which is one of agenda in upcoming AGM to be approved in AGM by end of these month.
Hi Hng,
I thought the final div won't go thru?
http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2010/4/28/business/6142142&sec=business
Thanks.
Eric kang
You can check MBF latest notice of AGM, one of the agenda is to seek shareholder approval for final dividend of 10sen, if approve may serve as catalyst for share price
Enic kang
Even major shareholder not keen to proceed final dividend, but the board of director already decide to table it to upcoming AGM and seek shareholder approval
horse
Have you buy Citibank at yesterday price?
My US. portfolio have re-enter in full, bought Citibank at average US3.63.
Update portfolio + Margin line
1. Kfima 100% (cost: 95sen)
2. MBF 30% (cost 69.5sen)
3 Manulife 21% (cost 2.61)
4. PJ devel 19.6% (cost 73sen)
5. MWE 8.1% (cost 94.5sen)
6. OKA 5.2% (cost 60.3sen)
Second portfolio + margin line
1. MBF holding 20% (cost 69sen)
2. Chuan 16.2% (cost 60.5sen)
3. Classic scenic 10% (cost 74.5sen
hng, no i didn't buy into c. i need to stop trading for a while maybe, as i need to siphon out about 100K from my share investment money to early settle my car loan & foot some medical operation bills. :(
I will be out of action for maybe 5 to 6 months time. :(
Need to realign & consolidate my money position. :(
hng,
there some movement on kfima today, hope it can reach RM1.00 soon, i migth disposing by then to ease out some of my money for future plan.
received dividend from hektar, amfirst, cepat & atrium.
Sport betting license not given yet.....wow, this VT must be the master mind behind it. Ascot is actually worthless, now Bjcorp have to cough out 525million for its 70% shares. Those shareholder must be cursing big time !!
VT indeed a smart guy but this one not subject SC queries ??
hng,
congrat on your C, DJ future is trading in green. Quick profit again. :)
hi hng...
Thanks for the explanation. informative.. cool :) well, read about you are going for some medical absence. do take care ya...
horse
#siphon out about 100K from my share investment money to early settle my car loan & foot some medical operation bills. :(
Opt for early settlement car loan is wise choice as the interest charge is upfront and sum for entire tenure, but you may incur some penalty for early exit.
Medical bill in private hospital is big sum, its fortunate if have medical insurance coverage, but its always top priority to ensure all family members healthy, hope everthing go smoothly and take good care
Update portfolio + Margin line
1. Kfima 93% (cost: 95sen)
2. MBF 30% (cost 69.5sen)
3 Manulife 21% (cost 2.61)
4. PJ devel 19.6% (cost 73sen)
5. MWE 8.1% (cost 94.5sen)
6. OKA 7.2% (cost 58.8sen)
Second portfolio + margin line
1. MBF holding 20% (cost 69sen)
2. Chuan 16.2% (cost 60.5sen)
3. Classic scenic 10% (cost 74.5sen
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