Thursday, June 26, 2008

Just For Laugh

An elderly lady was standing at the railing of the cruise ship holding her hat tight so that it would not blow away in the wind.
A gentleman approached her and said, "Pardon me, madam. I do not intend to be forward but did you know that your dress is blowing up in this high wind?"
"Yes, I know," said the lady. "I need both my hands to hold onto this hat." "But madam, you must know that you are not wearing any underwear and everything is exposed!" said the gentleman in earnest.
The woman looked down, then back up at the man and replied, "Sir, anything you see down there is 85 years old. I just bought this hat yesterday!"

Why did he cry? A True Story

A true story that happened in China。 A bus full of passengers was travelling on hilly road.
Midway through the journey, 3 armed thugs was eyeing the pretty woman bus driver. They forced the bus to stop and wanted to have fun with the driver! 。
The woman driver naturally shouted for help, but all the rest of the passengers just kept quiet. Then a weakly looking middle-aged man came forth to ask the 3 men to stop; but he was instead beaten up.
The man was very angry and appealed loudly to the other passengers to stop this uncivilised act but nobody responded. And the driver was dragged by the 3 men to the bushes nearby.
An hour later, the 3 thugs and the ruffled driver came back to the bus and the driver is ready to drive off again.... "Hey you, get down the bus!" the woman driver shouted to the man who tried to assist her earlier on. The man was bewildered and said: "What's wrong with you? I was trying to save you just now and was I wrong in doing so?" "You save me? What have you done to save me?"
The driver retorted, and a few of the passengers were quietly laughing away. The man was really angry. Even though he did not have the ability to save her, he should not be given this treatment at all. He refused to get down the bus and said; "I paid for the trip and I have the right to remain."
The driver put on a grim face and said: "If you don't get down, the bus will not move on." What was unexpected was that the passengers, who were oblivious to the barbaric act of the thugs just now, suddenly woke up and in a concerted effort asked the man to get down the bus saying: "You might as well get off the bus, we have things to attend to and cannot afford anymore delays!"
A few stronger passenger were indeed trying to drag the man down the bus The 3 thugs were smiling knowingly at each other and commented: "We must have done a great job to the lady!" After much ado, the man's luggage was thrown out the bus window and he was ousted out of the bus.
The bus started on its journey again. The driver straightened up her hair and turned the radio to full volume. The bus was reaching the hill top and will go downhill after a turn. The right side of the bus was facing an unfathomable cliff. The speed of the bus increased gradually. The driver's face was very calm with both hands on the steering wheel. Tears started to swell in her eyes.
One of the thug realised something amiss and said to the driver: "Drive slowly, what are you trying to do?" The driver said nothing, but the bus travelled faster and faster. The thug tried to grap hold of the steering wheel, but the bus shoot towards the cliff like an arrow leaving the bow.
The next day, the local paper reported a tragic accident at the 'Tiger Taming Hill' region. A medium sized bus fell through the cliff and the driver and the 13 passengers were all killed. The man who was chased down the bus saw the paper and cried. Nobody knew what was he crying about and why he cried! You know why he cried? If you were in the bus, would you stand up like the man did? We need people like him to create and sustain a normal society! When we treat others with our hearts; we will receive warmth and love from people!

Wednesday, June 18, 2008

Buying and selling signal

Wednesday June 18, 2008
This article by Ooi Kok Hwa, an investment adviser and managing partner of MRR Consulting, tackles some basic skills needed to detect the buying and selling strength of a stock price.
THE price movement of a stock is dependent on the demand and supply of the stock, which in turn is influenced by the buyers’ buying interest and the sellers’ selling interest.
Every buyer or seller has different purposes when entering into a trade. The followings are general “rules”, which provide us with some hints on whether the stock price will probably go up or down.
Investors should not view these “rules” as a foolproof method that will hold true all the time. There are certain occasions that market manipulators might be using these “rules” to mislead the general public.
Rule 1: Buyers are showing small orders and sellers are showing big orders. However, the stock prices are holding quite well – buy signal.
When we want to purchase a stock, we will call our remisiers to check on buying or selling orders on the stock. A lot of selling orders with only a few buying orders on the stock may imply that the stock price would come down.
However, if the stock prices are holding quite well, it could mean there are some net buyers accumulating the stock.
The reason for this is buyers may refuse to show their buying orders to attract sellers to sell at the buyers’ buying price.
Showing high buying orders may delay selling interest, as sellers will wait for the buyers to buy at their selling price. Hence, it is a “buy” signal if we notice the above rule on any stock.
On the other hand, if buyers have big orders and sellers have small orders while the stock price continues to drop, it might be a “sell” signal that this stock has some big sellers that are not willing to show their selling orders but they need to sell the stock now.
Showing big selling orders may cause panic on the stock. Hence, to sell at higher prices, sellers will try to hide their selling orders.
Logically, if a stock has a strong buying interest, the stock price should go up instead of come down. Hence, the weakening stock price may imply that sellers outnumber buyers.
Rule 2: The overall market is weak but your stock price is moving against the overall market trend – buy signal.
In a down market, if a stock that you own is inching up steadily despite the overall weak stock market sentiment, this may imply that there are some net buyers on this stock.
We view this as a “buy” signal where buyers are eagerly accumulating the stock in spite of the weak market. In most instances, the stock price will move higher the moment the overall market sentiment recovers.
In contrast, if the overall market is moving up but your stock is being beaten down, it is a “sell” signal. Normally, insiders are aware of certain crucial bad news that is still not available to the market yet.
Rule 3: Stocks carry a lot of bad news and are trading at high volume but stock price remains stable – buy signal.
Sometimes a certain stock is facing huge bad news but the stock price is holding on quite well. Normally, it may imply that buyers are not worried about the market concerns on this stock. The current stock price may have discounted all the bad news.
In contrast, if a stock, despite having all the good news in the media, continues to see its price decline, this is a “sell” signal that shows there are certain sellers who have some concerns over the stock, but the overall market is still not aware of the news.
Ooi Kok Hwa is an investment adviser and managing partner of MRR Consulting.

Thursday, June 12, 2008

Subsidy cut the better option

Thursday June 12, 2008

The recent restructuring of fuel subsidies shocked the nation. It seems like a drastic move but it is better than spending RM40bil a year on oil subsidies when there are other pressing socio-economic needs.
LAST Wednesday, Prime Minister Datuk Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi shocked the country by announcing subsidy cuts for both petrol and diesel. His main critics slammed the decision as a move to spike whoever would take over from him.
A Pakatan Rakyat leader surprised at the decision reckoned that Abdullah had forfeited his option to call for snap polls should there be crossovers.
From this observation, it is clear that Abdullah did not put politics above the interest of the nation.
It simply does not make economic sense to spend RM40bil a year on oil subsidies when there are other pressing socio-economic needs. Every year, almost half of the fuel subsidies go to private cars, more than 75% of which are single occupant.
If the Government can deliver on its promise to improve and enhance the current sloppy public transport system, this money can be used to fund other more pressing needs such as essential food items, education, affordable housing and healthcare.
Again, the decision made was correct and timely, but the manner in which it was done robbed it of the full credits it deserved. Only weeks ago, Abdullah and his deputy Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak had given assurances that subsidy cuts would be deferred at least until August.
Flip-flop in the decision making process did not help to consolidate people’s confidence in the government’s management of rising oil prices and inflation.
Considering our current socio-economic condition, a gradual cut of subsidy is a better option. The people and industries need time to adjust to the new environment. These industries have operated in an artificial cost structure supported by subsidies since 1982.
However, I agree with some economists who observed that it would be better for Malaysia in the long run to adjust its subsidy structure now, before we reverse our position to become a net importer by 2014. Moreover, we cannot continue to subsidise the rich and foreigners.
With the subsidies significantly reduced, the Government must now deliver on its promises to reduce wastage and streamline the bureaucracy.
All government expenditures must be made accountable and transparent to the public. Abuses of public funds reported in the Auditor General’s report must be curbed. The Government must show more teeth in fighting corruption.
Ironically, the question is no longer whether the Government can or cannot deliver on its promises. For its own political survival, Barisan Nasional has no other choice but to perform.
Inevitably, the manner in which the cuts were made courted severe criticism from several Pakatan Rakyat (PR) top leaders.
Parti Keadilan Rakyat de facto leader Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim described the retail petrol price increase as “wanton in size and callous in effect”. He charged at the way the profits of Petronas were disbursed, and criticised the “wanton waste in government expenditure”.
Touted by the foreign press as the “prime minister in-waiting”, Anwar pledged, “I will resign immediately” if a PR government was unable to roll back the subsidy cuts.
DAP secretary-general and Penang Chief Minister Lim Guan Eng criticised the move as “economically insufficient and socially unjust”. He claimed that the new structure “does not deal with ensuring that fuel subsidies fulfil the intended objective of helping the poor instead of benefiting the rich”.
But surely the Government, including a PR-led one, cannot continue to support a subsidy structure which is unsustainable once the country becomes a net petroleum importer.
The promise to reverse the subsidy cuts is an attractive one. But for how long can the subsidies be maintained before our limited resources are eaten away?
Anwar has to justify why we should continue to pay through our nose so that six million drivers can continue to enjoy the subsidies.
If the increase of 78 sen is too drastic now, can Malaysians accept a RM2 rise by 2014 should the fuel price continue to climb?
By using the money saved from the subsidy cuts on other pressing needs, the Government is addressing the basic needs of the poor. On the contrary, the continuation of the fuel subsidies is detrimental to the interest of the poor, and benefits only the upper echelons.
On this part, the enforcement bodies must work tirelessly to contain unnecessary price increases triggered by the higher retail fuel price, and not merely pay lip service to its intention to manage inflation.
If Anwar wants to position himself as a strong candidate for the premiership, he must prove that he has a plan to do better than merely proposing to reverse the cuts.
It is more productive for his coalition to propose an alternative strategy on how to control retail fuel prices, to prepare for the reverse of position to being a net importer, to improving quality of life, to ensuring finite resources are channelled to food security and public transport rather than to organise and support street protests.
Can the PR do better? We are listening.
Khoo Kay Peng is a corporate consultant and an independent political analyst.

Tuesday, June 10, 2008

Sold Tenaga at RM8.50

Have sold my Tenaga at RM8.50 today. Is very much lower compare to my target price at RM9.30, however, this just prove that no one can predict future, so long as one don't make losses consider good enough and remember that one got to have patient when dealing with investment. Nothing is come free in this world, you want to make money you got to sacrifice your time and money. You got to sharpen your saw before making an attempt. Anyway, treat this as your own business, deal it with seriousness and be responsible with it. In this instance, every cent that put in is worth the value no matter what it turn out. All the best and may the best price be yours.

Friday, June 6, 2008

Bought Huaan (2739) at RM0.66

After evaluating the result of Huaan and considering the Coke and Coal prices have been up for about 50% to 60%, i expect it 2nd quarter result should be good, since it has already registered a whopping 100% increased in net profit for the 1st quarter.
This time i have to concur with 'toto' about Huaan. Thus, i have bought in Huaan at RM0.66 today. It also declare a T.E 4.55% dividend for this quarter which represent an annual of 3.4% in total. I think is a good dividend overall.
Conservatively, if we calculate based on PE=8 for a fair valuation, Huaan fair value should be around RM0.90. There is an upside of around 40% which i think is worth betting your money in. Giving this counter a medium term till year end, it should be realising it actual value i hope.
The above do not represent a buy recommendation from me, act at your own risk. Till then have a good week end. Bye.

Wednesday, June 4, 2008

Understanding the stock market rules

Stock Market Rules by Ooi Kok Hwa
In this article, we will highlight a few common and important ‘rules’ that are crucial to most investors.
Your purchase price is irrelevant when you consider selling a stock.
Most people always find it difficult to sell a stock at a price lower than the purchase price because this means making a loss.
For example, if you purchase a stock at 90 sen, you will not sell the stock lower than 90 sen as this means a loss to you.
You will most likely hold on to it until you are able to sell it at higher than 90 sen.
Unfortunately, your stock never remembers how much you have paid for it. You have memory of the purchase price but not the stock.
As a result, some investors end up holding on to lousy stocks with poor fundamentals.
The longer you hold on to these stocks, the higher the losses that you will incur.
Hence, the timing to sell stocks with poor fundamental will depend very much on when you are able to admit that you have made a mistake purchasing them.
Deciding whether to sell when the price is falling or continue to hold on to it with the hope it will recover and break even depends on the fundamentals of the stock.
The target selling price for a stock should be based on the future prospects of the company instead of the price that you paid for the stock.
Thus, you need to “sell the losers and let the winners run”.
For stocks with good value, you should consider holding them for a longer time.
Lately, some second liners with good fundamentals have been hammered down to very low levels. Some of them are even selling at lower than the owner’s cost (lower than book value).
However, not many investors are excited about those stocks although they are currently selling at a very cheap valuation.
Most investors worry that the price will go down further after they have bought it.
It is very hard to predict the market bottom. Based on our observation, certain fundamentally strong stocks may have temporarily found bottom despite the recent market sell down.
We think it is a good time to nibble on some good value stocks and keep them for the long term.
Even though the price will get cheaper than your purchase price tomorrow, we believe the current price should not be too far from the bottom.
Investors need to remember that the returns are based on the selling price. You may purchase the stock at a relatively higher price during a downtrend.
However, if the stock has great potential and you are patient enough to hold on and wait until the market recovers, you can still get higher returns than someone who may be lucky to purchase this stock at the lowest price but sell it too early.
As mentioned earlier, buying before the market reaches bottom is “buy low, sell high”.
However, to a certain group of investors it is safer to buy only when the market has found the bottom and started to recover rather than trying to predict where the market bottom is.
They prefer to buy the stock at a higher price because they believe they can sell it at a higher price. This is “buy high, sell higher”.
For those who prefer the “buy low, sell high” strategy, as you are buying before the market is touches bottom, you need to stagger your purchases so that you have enough bullets to average down your purchase price if the stock price drops further.
For those who prefer to “buy high, sell higher”, they need to prepare themselves mentally to buy at higher stock prices.
This might be a problem to investors as they are not willing to pay for higher stock prices as they always remember the recent lowest prices.
They may end up buying nothing but still hoping the stock price will come down one day.

Tuesday, June 3, 2008

Received 10sen Dividend From TENAGA

Received 10 sen dividend from Tenaga. There was an announcement make by Tenaga to propose purchasing it own shares up to 10% of the issued and paid-up share capital. The Share Buy-Back will enable the Group to utilise its surplus financial resources to purchase the shares. The Share Buy-Back is expected to stabilise the supply and demand as well as the price of the Company Shares. The improvement in earnings per share (“EPS”), if any, arising from the Share Buy-Back is expected to benefit the shareholders of the Company. The purchased shares can be held as treasury shares and resold on Bursa Securities with the intention of realising a potential gain without affecting the total issued and paid-up share capital of the Company. If the treasury shares are distributed as share dividends, it will serve to reward the shareholders of the Company. Assuming that the Company purchases 433.35 million Shares representing approximately 10% of its share capital as at 31 March 2008 and such shares purchased are cancelled, the Proposed Share Buy-Back will result in the issued and fully-paid up share capital of the Company being reduced from RM4,333.53million comprising of 4,333.53 million Shares to RM3,900.18 million comprising 3,900.18 million Shares. The proposed Share Buy-Back will have no effect on the issued and paid-up capital of the Company if the shares purchased by the Company are held as treasury shares and are not cancelled. The effect of the Proposed Share Buy-Back on the EPS of the Group is dependent on the purchase price of the Shares and the effective funding cost or loss in interest income to the Company. Further, should the Company choose to retain any Shares purchased as treasury shares and subsequently resell the treasury shares on Bursa Securities, depending on the price at which the said Shares are re-sold, the Proposed Share Buy-Back may have a positive effect on the EPS of the Group if a gain on disposal is achieved. However, if a loss on disposal is realised, it may reduce the EPS of the Group.
Related Posts with Thumbnails