Tuesday, November 30, 2010

Market View

1. Market drop more than 10 points. :( Overall stocks down on Europe's debt crisis where Portugal or Spain may have run into debt problem. Ireland's bailout package also can't stop the down side. This week....one word...."Tough". The Koreans conflict also adding more fuel. :(

2. I have gotten enough of my "dividend" stocks so far. Would not be buying unless it drop to a significant level which make the yield interestingly attractive.

3. Engaging long term approach and DY is still the best. Ignoring the current turbulence. :)

4. What would you do, if market continue to be bearish.....?

5. Year end approaching, will start compiling my portfolio and the % return that i get for this year. :)

6. When there is being nothing to do. Do nothing. :)

Saturday, November 27, 2010

Buying or Selling ?

1. Thanks to the sell down. Managed to collect quite substantial ARREIT at RM0.905. Certainly this is not the last, will collect more if price come down further or whenever i can. :)

2. Sold some of my CARLSBG at a price of RM6.00. :) This provide me more capital for scoping. :)

3. Overall Stocks slide on worries over Korea, European debt. :(

4. I would expect more drop come next week. :(

5. PCHEM started it debut yesterday. Not a bad start after all at RM5.72 but just can't beat the selling pressure when market open. Started to slide then before settling at RM5.31. I think the selling force not end as yet. Many is waiting to dispose especially those that subscribing the IPO on loan money.

6. GENM result is expected. Profit drop a bit. Judging the down trend momentum, would likely to settle at around RM3.00 to RM3.20. Nevertheless, this stock remain as bore as before, nothing compare to a more energetic volatile GENTING.

7. Defensive or DY stock is still the best approach irrespective whether market up or down. You still can sleep tight and sound. :) Till then happy trading.

Wednesday, November 24, 2010

Bravo !! Mr. Market

1. wow !! Market rebounded after a day of sell off due to Korean Conflict. :)

2. Today managed to buy in small amount of ARREIT at 0.905sen. My target still far below. Will queue to buy more tomorrow.

3. Thought can take advantage of the selling force today but too bad the selling pressure is just not greate enough. Will there be more selling tomorrow ??

4. Many have expected market to go down further but instead it caught everyone surprise by defying the selling pressure. Well done market, :) no one can really sure what will happen next. Engaging long term investment and dividend yielding is still the best approach. We can have a sound sleep and peace of mind. :)

Tuesday, November 23, 2010

Korean conflict, European debt weigh down stocks

Take months to build but take days to fall !!!!!!!
Stocks open lower on concerns about Korean military conflict, European economy
NEW YORK (AP) -- Stocks are falling in early trading after a skirmish between North and South Korea and amid ongoing worries about Europe's debt troubles.

Investors were already uneasy Tuesday about Europe's debt crisis after Ireland accepted a bailout this weekend. The concern is that Portugal and Spain may be the next countries to need help.

Before stock markets opened, the government reported that the U.S. economy expanded at an annual rate of 2.5 percent in the third quarter, up from an earlier estimate of 2 percent.

The Dow Jones industrial average fell 129, or 1.2 percent, to 11,049 in the opening minutes of trading.

The S&P 500 lost 14, also 1.2 percent, to 1,184. The Nasdaq composite index fell 27, or 1.1 percent, to 2,504.

THIS IS A BREAKING NEWS UPDATE. Check back soon for further information. AP's earlier story is below.

NEW YORK (AP) -- Stocks are falling in early trading after a skirmish between North and South Korea and amid ongoing worries about Europe's debt troubles.

Investors were already uneasy Tuesday about Europe's debt crisis after Ireland accepted a bailout this weekend. The concern is that Portugal and Spain may be the next countries to need help.

Before stock markets opened, the government reported that the U.S. economy expanded at an annual rate of 2.5 percent in the third quarter, up from an earlier estimate of 2 percent.

The Dow Jones industrial average fell 129, or 1.2 percent, to 11,049 in the opening minutes of trading.

The S&P 500 lost 14, also 1.2 percent, to 1,184. The Nasdaq composite index fell 27, or 1.1 percent, to 2,504.

Saturday, November 20, 2010

Pantech’s corporate exercise should yield positive returns

Pantech Group Holdings (95 sen) is on the final leg of a corporate exercise involving a bonus shares and rights issue of irredeemable convertible unsecured loan stock (ICULS) that also comes with free warrants. The entitlement date has been fixed on Nov 24.

We believe the exercise will offer shareholders positive investment returns over the next few years, underpinned by the company’s expansion plans and earnings growth prospects.

The bonus issue is on the basis of 1-for-5 shares. Shareholders will also be given the rights to buy two ICULS for every Pantech share held (before the bonus issue) priced at 10 sen per ICULS. The loan stock carries a 7% coupon rate with a conversion ratio of six to one, exercisable at anytime within a seven-year period.

As a sweetener, investors will be offered one free warrant for every 10 ICULS subscribed. The warrants have a maturity of 10 years and the exercise price is fixed at 60 sen. Post-bonus issue, Pantech’s shares will be adjusted to 79 sen based on its current price of 95 sen. This implies that the warrants will already be in-the-money upon completion of the exercise.

Decent 7% yield on ICULS

ICULS is somewhat similar to a warrant in that they give holders the right to convert their holdings into shares within the maturity period. However, holders will also earn fixed annual interest income until the loan stocks are converted into equity.

In Pantech’s case, its ICULS carries a coupon rate of 7%. That is a fairly decent yield, compared with current deposit rates. Of course, loan stocks are not risk free. But Pantech’s balance sheet is relatively strong with net debt of RM70.3 million at end-August 2010 or gearing of about 28%.

Plus, its business is expected to fare well over the next few years. We forecast steady double-digit earnings growth for Pantech going forward, following a slightly decline in FYFeb11 (excluding one-off items).

Both the ICULS and warrants will be listed on Bursa Malaysia on Dec 27. Their prices will likely track Pantech’s share price with reference to their conversion ratio/exercise price. For instance, based on current prices, the loan stock should trade at, at least, 13 sen (79 sen divided by conversion ratio of six).

Larger share base will enhance liquidity

Currently, Pantech has issued shares totalling 375 million. Assuming full subscription, the exercise will raise some RM75 million from the ICULS proceeds at the outset. The bulk of the proceeds will be used to fund the company’s expansion plans.

Future conversion of the warrants will raise a further sum of up to RM45 million. Upon full conversion of the ICULS and warrants, Pantech’s share base will be enlarged to about 650 million shares. The larger share capital — in step with its growing business — would improve liquidity and the stock’s attractiveness to investors over time.

Sales recovery, slowly but surely

We are sanguine on Pantech’s longer-term prospects. Sales are recovering, albeit at a gradual pace. Trading sales, in particular, dipped sharply in 2H09 on the back of a slowdown in contracts flow in the domestic oil & gas sector.

But calls for fresh tenders from the national oil company, Petroliam Nasional Bhd (Petronas), have been slowly picking up steam over the last few months. Pantech’s trading sales improved from a low of RM46.9 million in 4QFY10 to RM67.5 million and RM72.2 million in 1Q-2QFY11, respectively — and should continue to rise.

In addition to new deepwater and marginal oilfield projects, Petronas is also investing in enhanced oil recovery, where new technologies are expected to raise extraction rates in existing oilfields on upgraded facilities. Industry players are upbeat that the actual flow of contracts and jobs will gather momentum going into 2011-2012.

Meanwhile, its manufacturing arm is also doing better on the back of improving export orders. Crude oil prices have rebounded convincingly from the lows during the height of the financial crisis. At current levels, around US$85 (RM266) per barrel, prices are supportive of exploration and production activities.

Indeed, despite the weak US dollar, which translates into lower ringgit sales, Pantech’s manufacturing sales increased to RM25 million in the latest 2QFY11 from RM22.8 million in 1QFY11 and as low as RM10.3 million in the previous corresponding quarter.

Sales would gain a further boost from Pantech’s joint-venture deal with Saudi-based Al-Otaishan Trading Group, which paves the way for it to supply state-owned oil and petrochemical companies in the oil-rich country.

Manufacturing expansion to drive future growth

Pantech intends to focus on growing its manufacturing business over the next few years.

At the moment, its plant in Klang manufactures carbon steel pipes and fittings. Once the new manufacturing facility in Johor Bahru is completed — trial production is expected to begin sometime this month — its range will expand to include stainless steel pipes.

Under the next two phases, the product range will widen to encompass stainless steel fittings and eventually alloy-based pipes and fittings, targeted by 2013-2014. By then, Pantech plans to hit RM1 billion in sales, about 40% of which will be from the manufacturing arm, up from 16% in FY10.

In short, we believe Pantech has good upside potential given that prevailing valuations are still low. The stock is trading at just about 8.1 and 6.8 times our earnings estimate for FY11-FY12. Net tangible assets stood at 66 sen per share at end-August 2010.

Wednesday, November 17, 2010

Hupro Or Not Hupro ??

1. The stock that i intend to make a swap from AMFIRST is ARREIT but just manage to get some of it at 0.905sen yesterday :( still far below my desire target. The price seem reluctant to come down. Will try to buy more tomorrow when the market reopen. :)

2. A friend approach me and asking me, making 10% a week is it sound too good to you ?? wow !! what kind of investment that give such a high return ?? Yes, it is non-other than FOREX. I personally had tried it before since many years back, i still trade on and off even today but it is just not my cup of tea really, reason being is i just do not have time for it. Yes, i believe some may be able to garner such a high return consistently but this is no guarantee stuff here. On invitation, friend ask me to meet his FOREX guru, out of curiosity i step in to this company and being introduced to this FOREX guru so call. The guru show me live trading on the spot and tell me how easy making money is, all the stuff that shown look very familiar to me as mentioned it is not an alien thingy to me when dealing with FOREX.

I wonder what is this company doing here ?? An investment corporation or some thing else (SCAM) ?? as far as i know, Forex is prohibited here. After the session i pressed on my friend asking the real motive of this company. He told me, the company set based here as an IB (Introducer Broker) to Hupro FX an on-line Forex trading brokers based in UK. How does this company making profit being an IB so to speak ?? I more or less get some idea there after flashing back the long chat with that so call Forex Guru. I don't blame my friend as he is still a very greenhorn in investment industry.

Dissect from the conversation with the "Forex Guru", i can roughly guess the entire "Modus Operandi" of this company :-
  • They first target to lure job seekers by aggressive marketing and advertisement through newspaper.
  • Starting interview the potential job seekers candidate cum investors. (i saw many was waiting to be interviewed when i was there)
  • Provide few days of training as described by my friend. I was told by the Forex Guru, even a few days of training is enough to beat anyone with 10 years of trading experience. Gosh !! they are making these newbies or coerce them to believe that they are a "master trader" only with few days of training.
  • These "Master Traders" are "put" to get investors like friends or family members to invest by opening an account with them in which the investment will be handled by these so called "Master Traders" under supervision of the company's "Managers" or "Consultants". The more trades you performed the more income or "commission" you get. Not sure how much they get by introducing an investor though ??
  • When ask how much is the investment amount?? The investment amount is a whopping 40K minimum. wow!! what kind of investment concept is this ?? This is hell lots of money to an ordinary family. With so many years of Forex trading, i can trade Forex even with a mere USD10....... just think about it dude, with RM40K investment is about 12.8K USD there. Their reason is simple, they don't due with mini account. WOW !! what the hack, investment also got style one, forget about small amount, don't waste my time if you don't have minimum 10K USD, sound like they are telling you off. :) (ain't investment is to make sure every one making money irrespective big or small??). Indirectly telling you that you are not up to my level if you are small fish. wakakakaka
  • I suspect the next thing they will tell you once you dumped in that 40K, "Hello friend, your investment burst or hit margin call, you need to put in more fund else you are not up to our level. We have right not to handle you account unless you deposit more fund".
Fellow investors and friends out there, you tell me, Hupro or not Hupro ?? Scam or Not Scam ??

Tuesday, November 16, 2010

Portfolio Update

1. Sold AMFIRST at RM1.23 today, the batch that i gotten them recently between RM1.18 - RM1.19. Still keeping bulk of it for DPU, and the ex-date is tomorrow. :)

2. My application to PCGB (Petronas Chemical) IPO was not successful. More or less already sense it as the chances of getting it is far worst than MAXIS IPO unless you applied under "Bumi" units than 100% allocation. Good luck to those strike it. :)

3. Tomorrow will make a switch from the AMFIRST's proceed to another counter. Will reveal it once gotten them tomorrow. :)

Thursday, November 11, 2010

Golden Agri Q3 net profit rises 41%

SINGAPORE: Commodities firm Golden Agri Resources said its third-quarter net profit rose 41 per cent to US$99 million, led by robust demand for palm oil.

Revenue grew by about 43 per cent to US$965 million for the same 3-month period.
Output of palm products expanded 21 per cent from the previous three months to 608,000 tonnes during the quarter.
Golden Agri said that its financial performance also got a boost from higher crude palm-oil prices.
The company added that demand is expected to be well-supported in the medium to long term, thanks to growing consumption of edible oils and fats, particularly by the growing middle class in developing countries such as China, India and Pakistan.

Genting Singapore earns S$188m in 3Q

SINGAPORE: Casino operator Genting Singapore earned a net profit of S$188 million in its third quarter.

The profit in the three months ended September 30 compares with a net loss of S$93 million a year earlier.

However, the third-quarter's profit is lower than the S$397 million it earned in the previous three months.

Total revenue in the third quarter jumped to S$744 million, compared with S$12 million for the same three-month period a year earlier.

But on a quarter-on-quarter comparison, revenue fell from S$979 million in the second quarter.

Genting said Resorts World Sentosa (RWS), home to a Universal Studios theme park, contributed about S$731 million to the third-quarter revenue.

It added that the integrated resort has seen strong demand since it opened in the first quarter of this year.

Going forward, Genting said RWS is well on track to meeting its 2010 visitor target.

Tuesday, November 9, 2010

Petronas Chemical IPO

1. Stocks are getting pricey each day, so when there is nothing much to do, do nothing. :). When things are getting irrational better be cautious.

2. Today i applied Petronas Chemical's IPO as it is the last day of application. Think applying IPO is the safest for now.

3. Gen SP will be announcing 3rd Q result on 11/11. Hope it is a good one. :)

Monday, November 8, 2010

Golden Agri

1. Today make a swap of QCAPITA to ARREIT. Judging the time table of QCAPITA the DPU will be declaring sometime Feb next year still a long way :(, the reason of swapping for ARREIT is because Arreit already declared its DPU and will be going to ex on 11/11. Hope the switch will provide me a faster stream of income and giving me more chance to earn more DPU. :)

2. Today, I have entered another batch of the counter that i mentioned the other day. As of now, i had enough of this counter after today purchase and would likely keeping it for longterm and waiting for it to bear fruit after this. :)
This counter is GOLDEN Agri (SGX). This does not represent a buy call from me. You can judge your own by basing the surging of CPO price recently.

3. Yesterday, i had a wonderful breakfast, it is called "Fish Mee" specially recommended by the shop owner. See picture attached above. see ya.......

Wednesday, November 3, 2010

GAB 1Q Profit Up By 45% !!!

1. GAB's 1Q profit up by 45% !!! Certainly a very commendable result comparing with its previous corresponding Q. Just add up all the rolling Qs we will get EPS of 12.81+11.81+15.38+14.50 = 54.5. This would mean a PE of 8.83/54.5 = 16sen. Simple FV = 54.5 X 0.17 = RM 9.26. Achievable ??

2. Added more AMFIRST today between RM1.18 - RM1.19. Just notice that AMFIRST has just announced interim income distribution of 4.81sen. Not bad, not bad. :)

3. HEKTAR also just announced 3rd interim dividend of 2.5sen. :)

4. Still in the accumulating stage for the counter that i spotted XXXXX the other day. Will buy in more either tomorrow or Monday.

5. As promised. My latest portfolio is as follows:-

6. I have a very heavy weightage on REITs on my portfolio recently. Reason being is that, CI already in the zone of >1500, better be cautious than sorry later, you may caught off guarded if anything were to happen though i still have confidence with the market. (Lessons learned from previous crashed, adopted a different investment style now)

7. Concentrate on dividend play isn't that bad at all, cause all of my above are already in the profit level except for the AMFIRST batch that just gotten them today, some of them (profit) as high as few 100%, do you know which one of it ?? whoever guess it right get free units from me....hahahaha, just kidding. Till then, happy investing. May the best price be yours.

Monday, November 1, 2010

AIA-C1 Worth Investing ??

Type of Structure Warrants : Call Warrants

Underlying Stock : AIA GROUP LIMITED


Stock Code : 0553C1

Stock Short Name : AIA-C1

ISIN Code : MYJ0553C1L67

Board : Structured Warrants


Initial Listing Information

Listing Date : 29/10/2010

Term Sheet Date : 28/10/2010

Issue Date : 28/10/2010

Issue/ Ask Price : MYR 0.1500

Issue Size Indicator : Unit

Issue Size in Unit : 90,000,000

Maturity Date : 27/06/2011

Exercise/Strike/Conversion Price : HKD 18.0000

Revised Exercise/Strike/Conversion Price : MYR 0.0000

Exercise/ Conversion Ratio : 6:1

Revised Exercise/ Conversion Ratio :

Settlement Type/ Convertible into : Cash

Lets work out whether it is in the money or out of money by leveraging on AIA-C1 :-
Conversion Rate = 1HKD : 0.399RM
A) Current Share Price of AIA GROUP LIMIT = HKD 23.00
B) Call Warrant Price = RM 0.42 (Convert to HKD = 0.42/0.399 = 1.05)
IN the Money/OUT of Money = ((23 - 18)/6) - 1.05 = -0.22HKD (Convert to MYR = -0.22 * 0.399 = -0.088)
Overvalue % = 0.088/0.42 * 100 = 20.9% (To me anything more than 10% is high)
If AIA stay at HKD 23.00, then it is only worth taking in AIA-C1 at (0.42 - 0.088 = RM0.33) or offer slightly 10% more of RM0.36.
You work out the range according to the underlying stock of AIA's price, then you should know where you heading to. Till then happy investing.
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