Saturday, August 30, 2008

Received 9sen dividend from BJTOTO

Just received 4th interim dividend of 9sen from BJTOTO. BJTOTO is really a cash cow company never failed to give dividend every quarter so far. Hope to buy in more if price dip to around RM4.00, will that happen? we will wait and see. See you........

Friday, August 29, 2008

Bought more HUAAN at 0.545

Have been waiting patiently for it to dip, finally got settle another batch at 0.545. At this moment of time Huaan still look attractive, will buy in more if dip below 0.45 region. This definitely not a holland trip but it neither representing a buy call from me, act at your own risk.

Monday, August 25, 2008

Hong Leong Bank FY pre-tax profit crosses RM1b

KUALA LUMPUR: Hong Leong Bank Bhd recorded a historic pre-tax profit of RM1.01bil for its financial year ended June 30, 2008, up 18% from the RM857mil a year ago.
The bank announced on Monday that after-tax profit rose by 20% year-on-year to RM742mil from RM620.8mil a year ago. Earnings per share (EPS) were 51.19 sen versus 42.4 sen a year ago.
“Total net income crossed the RM2bil mark, ending at RM2,018mil, up 14% year-on-year. This was driven by an 18% growth in net interest income, 11% growth in net income from Islamic banking and 5% growth in other operating income (non-interest income),” it said.
Returns on average shareholder funds increased to 15.3% on an annualised basis, up by 1.5% from 13.8% in FYE June 2007. Return on assets improved by 6 basis points against the same period last year to 1.0%.
For the fourth quarter, net profit was RM133.98mil versus RM172.41mil a year ago. Revenue rose to RM486.37mil versus RM459.74mil. EPS was 9.24 sen versus 11.83 sen. It proposed a 15 sen dividend per share.
On the FY financial performance, Hong Leong Bank said shareholder value creation strengthened in tandem, with returns on shareholder funds (ROSF) advancing 150 basis points to 15.3%, compared to 13.8% reported for the whole 12 months last fiscal year.
Its group managing director/chief executive Yvonne Chia said in the last four years since the group laid out its Business Transformation agenda, pre-tax profits had grown almost two-folds from RM 529mil in FY04 to over a RM1bil.
“Returns on shareholder funds are up 610 basis points from 9.2% in FY04 to 15.3%. This financial result is evidence that the efforts to step up and scale up our organic franchise in liberalising banking sector are paying off. “Our Business Transformation agenda is flexible and adaptive, but the core themes of high performance and sustainable, profitable growth remain consistent. We are on track to achieve our twin goals of a strong domestic core franchise and regional embedment,” she said.

Friday, August 22, 2008

Bought Addtional MAYBULK

Today, bought additional MAYBULK at RM3.50. The reason is simple, i'm increasing my dividend portfolio for longterm holding by increasing Maybulk shares even though i already own some of this shares many years back but no harm buying more as i expect it going to declare 10sen dividend for this qtr. First half net profit RM314million increase by 15%. At current price, PE should stood around 6sen. Quite a fair valuation and an average of 10% Dividend yielding. Of course this does not represent a buy recommendation from me, act at your own risk.

Sino Hua An (BUY)

Effective yesterday, Chinese government has raised the export tax for metallurgical coke from 25% to 40%. No impact on SHA as all of its production is sold domestically.
Share price is at historical low (-27% YTD) vs coke prices which rose 100%YTD to RMB3100/tonne. Accumulate ahead of Q308 results release (22nd Aug) on step-up earnings from new capacity.


Some morning news from broker house :-

IOI’s share price has fallen -30% since our SELL call on Apr08. We now raise IOI to a
HOLD (PT, RM4.80), given our expectation of a short-term technical rebound on CPO
prices, and IOI’s close predictive share price relationship to CPO. We see a short-term
arbitrage opportunity in CPO because CPO has grossly under-performed crude oil (-40%
from peak, vs. crude oil’s 20%), on very marginal changes in fundamental CPO data
However, longer-term, we do not advocate a buy-and-hold strategy on plantations due to
structural issues facing crude oil (global economic slowdown; marginal supply cost of
USD60/bbl vs. USD110/bbl current price).

Wednesday, August 20, 2008

YTL Power International Berhad

Accounting for 100% of net profit (NP) forecasts
YTL Power (YTLP) NP of RM1,038mn was 12% lower than FY07’s NP. Stripping
off one-off tax credit of RM133mn in FY07, YTLP FY08 NP would have registered
zero growth, in line with our and consensus forecasts accounting for 100% of
forecasts. YTLP declared a final DPS of 3.75sen (tax exempt), within forecasts.
We are keeping a Buy on YTLP for its achievable dividend yield of 10.6% (net).

Overseas ventures soften domestic weaknesses
For FY08, wholly owned subsidiary Wessex Water (2% growth muted by stronger
RM vs £) and 35%-associate PT Jawa Power (13% growth supported by higher
bonus) cushioned YTLP’s domestic core operations weaknesses (down 8%).
YTLP 4Q NP of RM280mn, though improved 1%QoQ, was 5%YoY weaker due to
lower contribution from Wessex Water and domestic IPP (20-24% lower).

FY09 NP should be flat
We expect flat FY09 NP of RM1,027mn. The potential improvements from
overseas ventures would likely be stripped off by the 30% windfall tax announced
by the government (June 2008). IPPs have commenced their first monthly
payment mid-August 2008. We forecast windfall levy of RM90mn for FY09.
Malaysia IPP now accounts for less than 20% of YTLP’s earnings.

On the prowl for new concessions
Despite the regulatory setback in Malaysia, YTLP is still actively bidding for
projects overseas, most recent – Senoko Power, Singapore (estimated price tag
of US$3bn). With YTLP’s current cash balance of RM9.4bn, it has sufficient
ammo for future acquisitions. Our RNAV based PO of RM2.07 offers 22% upside
potential. YTLP is trading at PE09E of 11.5x, a discount to its historical average of

Monday, August 18, 2008

Received Final Dividend of 4.55% T.E From HUAAN

Received 4.55% TE from Huaan. Expecting 2nd qtr result by end of this month. Hopefully profit can reach RM40 million and above else everything to stay stagnant. Can't hope for much at this juncture as the market is too slump for that. I do hope that Huaan, when they increase their production will bring brighter result to the company, this will likely to be happened much later in next year. Am crossing my figure hope the entire work according to my patient folk......

Thursday, August 14, 2008

Received 30% Dividend From PBBANK

Just received 30% dividend declared by PBBANK. It has been very generous and consistent that PBBANK giving out dividend in recent years. PBBANK earning has been improving year after year, hope that this can be sustainable in the coming year where a slow down of economic is expected but no matter how solid a share is, when the market turn into bearish mode some how thing will get stagnant as well.
At this stage, is best to keep on collecting dividends :) Many of my stocks are fall due into paying dividend at the moment such as Bjtoto, Panamy, MNRB & Zhulian. I am happily waiting for that patiently. Till then happy trading.

A meeting with the heir apparent for the first time

Yeow Seng is the younger of the two sons. He is involved in both the plantations and property businesses, while his brother takes care solely of the properties.
He will become more involved with investor relations now that Yeo How has departed.

He completed a law degree in the UK, worked at a bank in Singapore for one year and has been working at IOI for 5 years, under the watch of both his father and Yeo How.

My view of him: he is thoughtful, humble and knows the businesses well.

Some of his views:

IOI remains relatively bullish on prices - forecasting prices of RM3,300/t for this year and 2,800-2,900 in 2009.

Previously it was selling forward aggressively, often six months forward; now, it is holding back expecting prices to rebound somewhat from here.

It has largely sold forward at RM3,000/t average to November this year.

On supply/demand, thinks supply from Indonesia is a concern, but demand should hold up due to China/India consumption.

Thinks Malaysian supply will deteriorate next year after a great 2008. Due to cycle of trees and their yields.

Believes biofuels to stay in US and Europe; won't be any change in policies.

Fertiliser costs are up 30% YoY and account for 40% of overall costs. Mostly bought from Russia and China in US$.

On the property side, he expects margins to decrease by 10% going forwards.

Surprisingly, he is seeing a pickup in Johor property sales (they have a township next to the airport).

In Singapore, they are ready to launch their first development in Sentosa, but waiting for the market to get better.

Consists of 150 high end condos. Paid S$460m for land, equivalent of S$1,360/sqf. Construction costs were S$460/sqf. Hoping to get S$2800/sqf for the 3,700 sqf units.

2nd parcel of Sentosa land cost S$1,800/sqf, which he estimates is around the current price.

Foreign shareholding in IOI is now 25-30%.

Best regards,

James Gruber

CLSA Malaysia

Friday, August 8, 2008

Malaysia strategy

Maximum political pessimism

Anwar Ibrahim was charged with sodomy today. He pleaded innocent and was released on RM20,000 (US$6,000) bail and a personal bond. Anwar will be contesting the by-election in Permatang Pauh on 26 August.
Anwar said an enormous injustice is about to be perpetrated. The Prime Minister said he asked the police to go on evidence alone but added: “Another person looking for justice is the victim. You forget Saiful. You think Anwar is more important.”

We are at the point of maximum political pessimism: The perception will be one of a political crisis, especially if there are demonstrations or rallies. If so, however, we think this is more perception than reality. As we pointed out above, freedom of the press has improved and continues to improve, as has freedom of speech, and so on.
Most investors caring less and less about politics: In our recent meetings with investors, no more than a quarter of our time was spent on politics. Only about half of them were in favour of Anwar becoming the PM, and among the other half, a number of them remember Anwar pre-1998, when he was Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister. We are reminded of what American comedian Will Rogers said once: "The more you read and observe about this politics thing, you’ve got to admit that each party is worse than the other. The one that's out always looks the best.”
Our view remains that we do not think it matters very much who is in power but political stability is the important thing. Important items on an investor’s checklist are:
§ Freedom of press, including alternative medias.
§ Freedom of speech, including that of the opposition leader.
§ Independence of the judiciary, including recent changes.
§ Rule of law, without use of excessive force (Anwar's party, the PKR, had to apologise to a press photographer who was allegedly assaulted by a group of PKR supporters when she was covering a speech by Anwar, and the PKR Youth vice-chief has had to guarantee the safety of the media).

Whichever way Anwar’s situation unfolds, we believe that any MPs thinking of crossing over would think twice, given the recent events. As a result, it looks highly unlikely that Anwar will be able to become Prime Minister by 16 September as he had claimed he would be. Furthermore, with Muhiyiddin Yassin withdrawing from the UMNO presidential race, it looks as if the PM is secure in UMNO; he now needs to wage battle on one rather than two fronts.
The people may also be pleasantly surprised on 29 August, Budget Day, to find their economic situation improved and therefore may be less discontent. If that is the case, the political situation will likely improve from here.

Monday, August 4, 2008

Sold YUNKONG-WA at RM0.25

Yunkong registered a 1st Half net profit of 15mil, that is an increased of 196%. Obviously this increased is indeed a positive result where it increase it EPS from a 8.02sen same quarter last year to a 11.88sen. If Yunkong retains it profit for the remaining quarters, it will bring a total of EPS to 26sen that will even enhance the PE to less than 2. Definitely a low PE base on current valuation of steel sector.
I subscribed to the right issue of Yunkong and the right issue offers a free warrant of every 2 shares to 1. As i wrote in my earlier article about Yunkong in which i recommended to take up the offer, if one opted to it then today he/she is really bearing the fruit at current trading price. I decided to unload the free warrant this morning at a price of RM0.25. Steel price is still at high level, i believed Yunkong will be benefited and able to further improve its result till year end. At current price, it is still relatively cheap where my target price is around RM0.80. However, above don't recommend a buy from me, act at your own risk. Till then happy trading......
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