Wednesday, December 30, 2009
On assumption profit for years 2009 & 2010 remain the same as in 2008 for Carlsberg (M) & Carlsberg (S)……..
Total acquisition = RM 370m
Carslberg (M) Cash Balance = RM 231m
Borrowings to finance the acquisition = RM 150m
Gearing ~ 150/370 = 0.4 times (acceptable to me)
***Note : Borrowings may not occur as it may accumulate sufficient fund before 2009 end.
Carlsberg (M) Net Profit (Year 2008) = RM 76m
Singapore to contribute est 50% net profit to Carlsberg (M) in 2010
= 76 + (76 * 0.5) = RM 114 m
Conservatively 50% of the net profit will be used to pay dividend = 114/2 = RM 57m
1000units holding of Carlsberg will get a dividend of = 57m/308m = RM185
This represent a dividend percentage of = 185/4600 x 100 = 4% for year 2010 still better than 2009... :)
EPS = 114m/308m = 37sen
PE = 4.6/0.37 = 12sen (Not bad)
Compare to its peer GUINNESS stood at PE 14sen.
Fair value for Carlsberg (M) = 14 x 0.37 = RM5.18 ... :)
Beside what you get for above, do consider the following cost saving measure as well :-
1) The operational synergies where it would shift sourcing back to Carlsberg (M).
2) Advertising and promotions would enjoy double tax deduction.
I own some Carlsberg shares while writing this, join me if you want…. :)
Tuesday, December 29, 2009
Hi hng and horse,
Now, I understand why you mention buy high, sell low. Currently, I am holding BJTOTO which I bought at 4.28 and buy again at 4.2 cost average to become 4.22. I think that this is the way you mentioned, buy high sell low. :) Now, I have made some profit but I will not sell it yet because I think it will rise more again.
For the tax claim back, I have not done it because I really lazy to go to open the account and take the money. Because the money is quite little, I think not more than RM20 because last time, I buy very little amount of stock to try my trading techniques. So, I will claim it when I start working around June or July 2010 if I manage to graduate properly. :)
Thanks for the great guide. I am a bit confused about the fees and charges, if I buy at high price(eg: 4.28) and I buy again at low price(eg: 4.2), how to calculate the total fees and charges?
How to calculate Brokerage fee for newbies effectively ........??
Greenleaf, i suggest you to setup a table (spreadsheet) to calculate your brokerage fee and as a measure to your profit and loss or breakeven point for a particular stock that you purchase. This will give you exactly how much is your intraday or normal (T+1 onward) profit/loss.
Normal online brokerage is 0.4% (T+1 onward) negotiable and 0.1% for intraday.
Lets take 0.4% for your example and assuming you buy 1000units each on 4.28 & 4.2 respectively. Both transactions on the same day. Average price will have to take for calculation of brokerage as these two transactions are on the same day.
For Purchase :-
1) Average price = (4.28 + 4.2)/2 = 4.24
2) Total proceed = 4.24 x 2000 = 8480
3) Clearing Fee = 8480 * 0.0003 = 2..544 (RoundUp to 2 decimal) = 2.55
4) Stamp Duty = 8480/1000 = 8.48 (RoundUp to 1 digit) = 9 (subject to minimum RM1)
5) Brokerage(0.4%) = 8480 * 0.004 = 33.92 (subject to minimum brokerage whichever is higher)
6) Nett Purchase ( 2+3+4+5 ) = 8480+2.55+9+33.92 = RM8525.47
For Sales minus proceed with charges instead :-
1) Nett Sales ( 2-3-4-5 )
Greenleaf, with the above Puchase & Sales calculation you will be able to setup one table for your own to gauge your profit & loss..... :)
Thursday, December 24, 2009
Just take below figure as good, am too lazy to verify, after all it is just estimate and work out of my own imagination…
Total shares issued = 2,472,348,084
Total shares in treasury (before 1:35 share dividend) = 163,849,950
Shares dividend of 1:35 = 2,472,348,084 / 35 = 70,638,516
Note: just whack the figure in as accuracy is not important here.
Estimated balance shares in treasury (After 1:35 shares dividend)
= 163,849,950 – 70,638,516
Do you see what I see ?? Assuming no shares buyback this year, the balance shares left in treasury still remain high at 56%.
Wednesday, December 23, 2009
I've just finalized a simple account to all the “unit holders” so call, and to my surprise I managed to garner a return of 61.04% since inception of this fund. This is far too good compare to my own personal investment in which I merely get about 16% this year.
Sound pretty impressive right ??? Of course, in bull market this return is nothing to shout about. Many can achieve much higher than this I believe. What if bear is coming to town ??? Would you be able to sustain the same kind of growth ??? Frankly, i don’t know but what I have adopted is the same method I used to do all this while, by long term investing to quality and dividend stocks solely. Except that this fund I added some recipe in it where I traded some of the stocks by buying and selling and keep repeating them but limited only to the same group of quality stocks. Simple method, buy high sell low, buy high sell low and again buy high sell low on the same old stocks. Transaction traded not very high about 2 – 3 at most per month…. May be this is luck that just comes this year and you may not be that lucky next year. hahaha
Obviously, why is there such a big different comparing my personal return, 61% versus against 16% ?? A complete opposite ?? I notice that I dare not risk my own fund too much while dealing with trading, so I trade less, on the contrast, I trade more on people’s money… see the difference…AHA!! Who cares !! after all is not my money that I am dealing with. I lose nothing. So, who win this round ?? The psychology wins and wins real BIG this round. Dealing with people’s money tends to be fearless, aggressive, risk taking and determine. Of course, with these elements in me, I don’t just invest blindly, still stick to my rule of thumb, only quality & dividend yielding stocks.
Till then happy trading, may the best price be yours.
Tuesday, December 22, 2009
Recent News of GSP :-
Malaysian gambling concern Genting Bhd. is on track for a partial opening of its Singapore casino-resort by Christmas, stealing the lead on a competing project by Sheldon Adelson's Las Vegas Sands Corp.
Officially, Genting hasn't strayed from its target date of early 2010 for the opening of its US$4.4 billion Resorts World on the holiday island of Sentosa. But despite its cautious public projections, the developer has quietly been preparing for an earlier ramp-up, and a consensus is emerging among market-watchers that Resorts World will open ahead of Sands' Marina Bay Sands project in the heart of Singapore's business district.
Beating Sands to opening day would allow Resorts World to capitalize on the excitement around Singapore's long-awaited entry into gambling. Singapore's government for decades resisted allowing casinos, but reversed that policy in 2005. Morgan Stanley estimates Singapore's gambling industry could generate between US$3 billion and US$3.7 billion of revenue in its first year of operation.
Singapore's casinos are also well-placed to tap a deep reservoir of interest in Southeast Asia, and could take business from Macau casinos.
An earlier opening by Genting would be a setback for Sands, which won approval from Singapore's government to open a casino six months ahead of Genting and had for years been widely expected to open as Singapore's first casino.
Under Singapore law, local residents will be required to pay an entrance fee of 100 Singapore dollars (US$72) per casino visit or an annual membership fee of S$2,000 for each casino. That gives whoever opens shop first a chance to stake out a strong position in the marketplace, according to Praveen Choudhary, a Morgan Stanley analyst.
A spokesperson for the Sands' Marina Bay Sands project declined to comment on Resorts World's timetable, but maintained its stated position that the Marina Bay project was "targeting to open" in the first quarter of 2010, though with only about 1,000 of its 2,600 hotel rooms ready, as well as most of the convention center, the casino and up to half of the retail shops completed. "The rest of the attractions will open progressively throughout the year," the spokesperson said.
Since Sands won its bid in May 2006, construction delays and high-level management changes have bedeviled the ambitious $5 billion project. As the credit crunch threatened Sands' financial health last fall, Mr. Adelson issued several news releases to reaffirm the company's commitment to the Singapore project.
One particularly challenging feature of the Sands project is its SkyPark, a 7,000-ton cantilevered floating garden that perches atop the project's three 55-story hotel towers. Sands says the public observation deck will be longer horizontally than the Eiffel Tower is tall.
In its official statements, Genting is delicate about the timing. Lim Soon Hua, who is marketing Resorts World in four mainland Chinese cities as well as Taipei and Hong Kong, said in an interview Wednesday in Hong Kong that the project was "moving very fast," with rollercoasters and rides at the casino project's Universal Studios project undergoing testing.
"We are on time, and [Sands has] said that they are delayed," Mr. Lim said. "As to which will be first, that's the $100,000 question—no one knows yet." But, he added that anyone who went and "took a look" would see the difference.
Over the summer, Genting announced a three-day charity benefit concert for mid-December at Resorts World, which analysts say indicates a late 2009 "soft opening" of the casino-resort.
Aaron Fischer, who covers the Asian casino business for CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets, said he believed Genting "is well on track for a late December opening," though he expected the opening to be restricted to high-rollers and loyal Genting clients ahead of grand opening in mid-February 2010.
Genting, which has a gambling monopoly in its home market of Malaysia, bought a 3.2% stake in MGM Mirage Inc. in June.
Thursday, December 17, 2009
Sold off all TM at 3.00, realize few hundred intraday gain :). In summary, portfolio realize intraday gain on Dijaya+TM and T+1 GENM, totalling more than 17k
Portfolio also manage to buyback more Dijaya at 91-92sen to further average down holoding cost from 95.5sen to 93sen (excluding earlier intraday gain). Dijaya has become top holding in portfolio.
Wednesday, December 16, 2009
Tuesday, December 15, 2009
ONCE YOU READ THIS YOU WILL UNDERSTAND!
A young man learns what's most important in life from the guy next door.
It had been some time since Jack had seen the old man. College, girls, career, and life itself got in the way. In fact, Jack moved clear across the country in pursuit of his dreams.
There, in the rush of his busy life, Jack had little time to think about the past and often no time to spend with his wife and son. He was working on his future, and nothing could stop him.
Over the phone, his mother told him, "Mr. Belser died last night. The funeral is Wednesday." Memories flashed through his mind like an old newsreel as he sat quietly remembering his childhood days.
"Jack, did you hear me?"
"Oh, sorry, Mom. Yes, I heard you. It's been so long since I thought of him. I'm sorry, but I honestly thought he died years ago," Jack said.
"Well, he didn't forget you. Every time I saw him he'd ask how you were doing. He'd reminisce about the many days you spent over 'his side of the fence' as he put it," Mom told him.
"I loved that old house he lived in," Jack said.
"You know, Jack, after your father died, Mr. Belser stepped in to make sure you had a man's influence in your life," she said
"He's the one who taught me carpentry," he said. "I wouldn't be in this business if it weren't for him. He spent a lot of time teaching me things he thought were important...Mom, I'll be there for the funeral," Jack said.
As busy as he was, he kept his word. Jack caught the next flight to his hometown. Mr. Belser's funeral was small and uneventful. He had no children of his own, and most of his relatives had passed away.
The night before he had to return home, Jack and his Mom stopped by to see the old house next door one more time.
Standing in the doorway, Jack paused for a moment. It was like crossing over into another dimension, a leap through space and time The house was exactly as he remembered. Every step held memories. Every picture, every piece of furniture....Jack stopped suddenly..
"What's wrong, Jack?" his Mom asked.
"The box is gone," he said
"What box?" Mom asked.
"There was a small gold box that he kept locked on top of his desk. I must have asked him a thousand times what was inside. All he'd ever tell me was 'the thing I value most,'" Jack said.
It was gone. Everything about the house was exactly how Jack remembered it, except for the box. He figured someone from the Belser family had taken it.
"Now I'll never know what was so valuable to him," Jack said. "I better get some sleep. I have an early flight home, Mom."
It had been about two weeks since Mr. Belser died Returning home from work one day Jack discovered a note in his mailbox. "Signature required on a package. No one at home. Please stop by the main post office within the next three days," the note read.
Early the next day Jack retrieved the package. The small box was old and looked like it had been mailed a hundred years ago. The handwriting was difficult to read, but the return address caught his attention. "Mr. Harold Belser" it read. Jack took the box out to his car and ripped open the package. There inside was the gold box and an envelope. Jack's hands shook as he read the note inside.
"Upon my death, please forward this box and its contents to Jack Bennett. It's the thing I valued most in my life." A small key was taped to the letter. His heart racing, as tears filling his eyes, Jack carefully unlocked the box. There inside he found a beautiful gold pocket watch.
Running his fingers slowly over the finely etched casing, he unlatched the cover. Inside he found these words engraved:
"Jack, Thanks for your time! -Harold Belser."
"The thing he valued most was...my time"
Jack held the watch for a few minutes, then called his office and cleared his appointments for the next two days. "Why?" Janet, his assistant asked.
"I need some time to spend with my son," he said.
"Oh, by the way, Janet, thanks for your time!"
"Life is not measured by the number of breaths we take but by the moments that take our breath away,"
Think about this. You may not realize it, but it's 100% true.
1. At least 15 people in this world love you in some way.
2 A smile from you can bring happiness to anyone, even if they don't like you.
3 Every night, SOMEONE thinks about you before they go to sleep.
4.. You mean the world to someone.
5. If not for you, someone may not be living.
6. You are special and unique.
7. When you think you have no chance of getting what you want, you probably won't get it, but if you trust God to do what's best, and wait on His time, sooner or later, you will get it or something better.
8. When you make the biggest mistake ever, something good can still come from it.
9. When you think the world has turned its back on you, take a look: you most likely turned your back on the world.
10. Someone that you don't even know exists loves you.
11.. Always remember the compliments you received.. Forget about the rude remarks.
12 . Always tell someone how you feel about them; you will feel much better when they know and you'll both be happy .
13. If you have a great friend, take the time to let them know that they are great.
Monday, December 14, 2009
AmEesearch Sdn Bhd has strengthened its "buy" call on Tan Chong Motor Holdings (4405) stock and revised upwards its fair value to RM4.30 from RM3.70 a share after meeting the company's management.
The research house upgraded its valuation of Tan Chong's motor division to 13 times its forecast 2010 earnings from its historical mid-cycle price-earnings of 12 times, noting major structural changes that could elevate Tan Chong's competitive positioning.
AmResearch said it came out of the meeting with Tan Chong's management and identified three developing themes which could be catalysts in lifting its share price.
The themes are its structural regional expansion, wider model mix and plans for property redevelopment.
Tan Chong has said that it intends to become an integrated Asean automotive supply chain manager, that is, turning the company into a borderless manufacturer and one with a higher level of autonomy from its principals.
Succeeding in this goal could see an expansion of its assembly and distribution rights in the region.
Acquisitions are on the cards involving markets such as Indonesia, Cambodia and Laos, after similar moves in Thailand and Vietnam last week.
The move would involve a total investment of RM1 billion over the next four years, it said.
AmResearch projects Tan Chong's strategy of widening its model mix on the Malaysian scene to bring about robust growth in its market share.
At present, Tan Chong is not represented in three major vehicle segments - A, B and D - which account for 61 per cent of total industry volume in the country.
Its management expects earnings to double in 2012 from 2009 levels with the introduction of A and B segment models.
Around RM250 million has been allocated for Phases 2 and 3 capacity expansion at Tan Chong's plant in Serendah, Selangor, over the next two years, which would more than double the annual capacity to between 50,000 and 60,000 vehicles.
At the same time, a property redevelopment theme is unfolding at its Segambut land.
AmResearch said the catalysts are revaluation of its property in Segambut; conversion of the land to commercial real estate; and value enhancement from development of the land.
Friday, December 11, 2009
•Petra Perdana to dispose of Petra Energy stake
•Kencana targets RM4bn in contracts
•Nestle to enter FBM KLCI, Parkson will be dropped
•GBH aims to raise RM74m from right issue
•Puncak consortium fails to pre-qualify for Kimanis power
•Astro’s 3Q10 net profit jumped to RM133m
•Genting Malaysia to buy Wisma Genting
•Lion Corp’s Parkson targets 15% retail space growth
•TA Enterprise 3Q profit falls
•AirAsia to grow Indian network
•Maxis may increase leverage
•ECM Libra 3Q profit in at RM7.3m
•PNB’s new property group will not include Mah Sing, SP
•BAT estimates impact from Ministry of Health ruling
•JCY International’s 2nd attempt at IPO
•KPJ plans RM100m expansion
•Green Packet secures 3 European contracts
•Sime Darby subsidiary in groundwater venture with
•Yoong Onn to target overseas expansion
Thursday, December 10, 2009
Monday, December 7, 2009
Thursday, December 3, 2009
THE managers of 11 Malaysian real estate investment trusts (REITs) have teamed up to set up the Malaysian REIT Managers Association (M-REITMA), allowing players in the sector to work closer with the authorities to grow the industry.
"For the purpose of registration with the Registrar of Societies (ROS), we have proceeded to form a protem committee comprising seed members from Am ARA REIT Managers Sdn Bhd and Axis REIT Managers Bhd when we handed in our application to register the association to the ROS on September 4," said protem committee chairman Steward Labrooy of Axis REIT in a statement.
"Without an official association representing members of the local REIT industry, it soon became apparent to all of us that we were unable to have effective dialogues with the regulators and the Ministry of Finance in order to communicate the issues facing the industry and to propose changes," it added.
The association, currently pending approval from ROS, will comprise AmFirst REIT, AmanahRaya REIT, Atrium REIT, Axis-REIT, Al-Hadharah Boustead REIT, Al-Aqar KPJ REIT, Hektar REIT, Quill Capita Trust, UOA REIT, Tower REIT and Starhill REIT.
The REIT sector is now over four years old, with the first REIT having listed in August 2005. Today, there are 13 listed REITS with a market capitalisation of RM5.4 billion.
Wednesday, December 2, 2009
AS a result of the financial crisis, even though most commodities have not been performing well, gold has outperformed the conventional asset classes like equity and bond.
This has prompted some investors to consider commodities as one of their investment asset classes. In this article, we will look into how to invest in commodities.
Bruno H. Solnik and Dennis W. McLeavey in their book titled “International Investments” classified commodities in three major categories – agricultural products, energy and metals.
Examples of agricultural products are fibres (wood, cotton), grains (wheat, corn, soybean), food (coffee, cocoa, orange juice) and livestock (cattle, hogs, pork bellies). Energy products can be crude oil, heating oil and natural gas whereas examples of metal products are copper, aluminum, gold, silver and platinum.
The main reason behind investing in commodities is that they have negative correlation with stock and bond returns. This will provide a good way to diversify portfolio risks. Besides, given that commodities are positively co-related to inflation, they can help investors hedge against inflation.
Investors can consider investing directly in commodities or indirectly by buying into futures contracts, bonds indexed on some commodity price as well as stocks of commodity related companies.
Some companies will invest in commodities that are extensively used as raw materials in their production processes. High commodity prices or raw material prices will affect those companies’ performance. However, if they have invested in their raw materials, even though their profitability might be affected by high raw material prices, the gains from their investment in those commodities will offset the losses in their operations.
Some investors will consider buying into commodity futures, such as crude palm oil (CPO) futures as this is one of the easiest and cheapest ways to get exposure to commodities.
However, investors need to understand that futures trading requires a high level of trading skills as most commodity players are well-equipped with the required market information, like total world supply and demand of CPO as well as the weather conditions in those producing countries. Some financial institutions may offer unit trust funds that invest directly in those commodities or indirectly through buying into commodity futures. In the United States, investors can buy into commodities via exchange traded funds (ETF) that are invested in commodities futures.
An ETF is a special type of fund that tracks some market indices and it is traded on a stock market like any common share. Given that the world economy may recover further and oil prices may go beyond US$100 per barrel again, buying into oil or other commodity related ETFs may provide retail investors an alternative to get exposure into commodities.
Since commodity cycles and the general business and stock market cycles are usually different, investing in commodities provides a good way of portfolio diversification.
Besides, investors can consider buying into collateralised futures funds (sometimes they are referred as structured products). A collateralised futures fund is a portfolio that takes a small long position in commodity futures and invests the rest of the money in government securities. Normally, it is capital guaranteed as the yield generated by government securities will be used to cover for the cost incurred for the futures contracts.
Lastly, investors can consider buying into listed companies that are commodity related. In Malaysia, if investors wish to gain from higher CPO prices, they can consider buying into plantation companies.
Given the current gold prices of more than US$1,150 per ounce, some investors are eager to know whether there are any further upsides to the gold prices. Some analysts and fund managers have predicted that the gold prices may go beyond US$1,200 to US$1,300 per ounce. Investors will rush into gold during a financial crisis, like the current financial crunch and the Great Depression in 1929-32, because gold can keep its value during those periods.
We believe that gold is a cyclical product. Even though nobody knows how high the gold prices can go, given that the world economy is showing signs of recovery, the upside potential for gold investing may be limited.
● Ooi Kok Hwa is an investment adviser and managing partner of MRR Consulting.
Tuesday, December 1, 2009
A state-owned investment conglomerate - Dubai World Group, announced that they want to restructure its debt of US$59 billion including its property subsidiary, Nakheel. This sudden news caused a shudder in the financial markets and concerns about the ability of the UAE banking sector and foreign banks have on businesses related to Dubai World Group. Worries on how this would also affect the fledgling US real estate sector were evident as the Dow Jones U.S. Real Estate Index fell 2.9 percent, nearly twice the decline of broader U.S. market indexes on Friday 27th November.
Background of Dubai World and Nakheel
Dubai World, whose majority stakeholder is the emirate’s ruler, Sheikh Mohammad bin Rashid Al Maktoum, borrowed from more than 70 lenders to buy assets ranging from stakes in Las Vegas casino company MGM Mirage to upscale retailer Barneys New York through Istithmar. Their property arm, Nakheel is also perhaps best known as the developer of Dubai's palm-shaped islands, also carries the Mandarin Oriental and W hotels in New York in its portfolio, and has a 50 percent stake in the Fontainebleau Miami Beach resort. Dubai World's holdings go far beyond real estate. It has a 20 percent stake in Canada's Cirque du Soleil, and also invests in the global bank Standard Chartered Plc and New York boutique investment bank Perella Weinberg Partners.
The market over-reacted on Friday but over the weekend, the UAE showed support to Dubai's debt, and provided some assurances. Today, the global markets and banking shares are rebounding. In Hong Kong, shares of HSBC and Standard Chartered rebounded overnight as investors viewed Friday's reaction and fears of exposure to Dubai as overdone. However, stocks in the United Arab Emirates, trading for the first time (after a 4 day Hari Raya Haji holiday), fell with Dubai's index down 6.9 percent and Abu Dhabi's share benchmark 8.1 percent lower. Overall, the MSCI index of Asia Pacific stocks traded outside Japan rose 2.8 percent. Reflecting some of the calm, U.S. stock futures are up 0.4 percent pointing to a firm start at Wall Street, which had already started showing some signs of a recovery on Friday having erased some of the losses toward closing time. European stock index futures also point to a higher open, futures for the Eurostoxx 50, German DAX and French CAC gaining 0.3-0.4 percent.
Investors' Nerves Soothed
Investors were also placated by authorities' moves on Sunday (29 Nov) to prevent any major fallout from the looming debt default by Dubai World. The United Arab Emirates offered banks emergency support to ease fears in financial markets and to inject liquidity into Dubai's banks by the central bank, together with promises by neighboring city-state Abu Dhabi to provide selective support. The Central Bank of the United Arab Emirates said they would support domestic banks and foreign banks and would give banks a channel access to special liquidity which is tied to their current accounts at the Central Bank. This amount can be withdrawn at rates higher than 0.5% above the 3 month local inter-bank interest rate benchmark.The benchmark three-month Emirates interbank offered rate was at 1.919 per cent on Nov. 25, the last working day before the Raya Haji religious holiday.This is a very reassuring move by the central bank to limit the risk of any run on Dubai-based banks as it will alleviate any liquidity concerns by foreign banks about the banking system, mostly those based in Dubai.
What should we do ?
As usual, do not panic. For some reassurances, Asian markets rebounded sharply today. The Middle Eastern markets are down as today is their 1st trading today after a long public holiday. Investors should wait for the markets in the Middle East to calm down. You may want to do a portfolio review on your middle eastern positions (if you have any) after the storm subsides, hopefully by end of his week and realign them to more Asia centric positions
Saturday, November 28, 2009
ANYONE contemplating an early exit from the rat race faces just as many rewards as they do risks. The most obvious reward: Early retirement means more time to live life instead of working. On the other hand, there is always the risk of running out of money needed to survive the later years of life.
If the purpose of early retirement is simply ceasing to work because you are tired of working, this in itself may not lead to a fulfilling retirement lifestyle. Be sure you have something to do that occupies your time, interests and takes advantage of your talents. It will be even better if you know your life goals and purpose for your early retirement because doing something meaningful will keep you mentally healthy. You don’t want to be waking up everyday wondering what to do with your life.
You may experience these different stages if you decide to retire early:
Stage 1. The active years: This phase may be typified by a “very active self-indulgent behavior”. You start doing things now that you were constrained from doing before. These new opportunities can require spending of your financial reserves.
Stage 2. The legacy years: In this period, you may to be less self-indulgent and more concerned with legacy or relationship building with people. This can also be a time of “giving service to others,” either to the community, family and friends. Otherwise, you may experience loneliness or mental depression, which can affect your physical health.
During this legacy phase, you also need to plan for a permanent dwelling including a support system and medical assistance for old age. You have to review your financial situation to ensure that your financial nest egg continues to generate growth for stage 3.
Stage 3. The golden years: This is when life’s endgame is played out. You may look back on life and feel a sense of fulfillment. Success at this stage leads to feelings of wisdom, while failure can result in regret, bitterness, despair and financial depression.
The risks of not having enough
You need to be “in the driver seat” of your investment portfolio to ensure constant growth because your retirement lifestyle will depend on what your investment portfolio can generate for you. Your investment profits must replace your career income. Hence, you cannot second guess in making financial decisions. You must know the answers to the following important questions about your financial reserves:
● What kind of retirement life do you want for yourself so that your financial reserves can last a lifetime?
● If you are presently single, would you want a family, children or companion during your retirement? Be aware that this may deplete your financial reserves.
● If you have a family now, what kind of lifestyle does your family want that can affect your financial reserves?
● How good are you in your investment skills and choosing the right investment products for your financial reserves?
● When your financial reserves run out, what is your contingency plan?
Actions speak louder than words
To the early retirement wannabes, realising your early retirement dream means investing your money and getting into a debt-free situation as soon as possible. It is about making sensible decisions about your life and financial matters.
You can begin by creating a process of gradual change with plenty of mental planning and making adjustments to fit an early retirement mindset and life expectations.
Mastering your investment skills and getting good advice will become your retirement priority. So, start your investment process today by considering the following:
● Can a bad economy and financial markets destroy the value of your financial nest egg?
You need to be cautious of being lulled into investment products that project average returns. An average doesn’t take into account the possibility that there may be several years of below-average returns that could force you to dip into your investment principal.
● Will inflation cut down your purchasing power? Watch out for the ravages of inflation.
A portfolio can earn handsome returns, but if the cost of living increases at a faster clip, retirement can be jeopardised.
So you will need assets that will grow over time and provide a hedge against inflation.
● How reliable is your investment income? Weigh this carefully when you need a continuous stream of income to pay your daily expenses.
When there is a need to cash out your investment principal during retirement, you will need to review your lifestyle and practice frugal living.
● What kind of investment choices will fit your financial needs? Take your time to understand the types of investment products in the marketplace because a choice of investments that are risky or not easily converted into cash can affect your retirement living. Unless you can quickly find a job, you can be caught in a cashless situation.
At the end of the day, only if you are proficient in your investment skills and can build sufficient wealth, will you be in control your retirement destiny. But a poorly planned and executed transition into retirement can mean you may end up living dangerously!
Wednesday, November 25, 2009
Both of my biggest core stocks Hingyap and Protasco are performing well. If everthing go as plan, portfolio stand to reap highest profit in this yr :D)
Wednesday, November 18, 2009
DUE to the current low interest rate environment, a lot of investors may be wondering whether there are investments that can provide returns higher than fixed deposit (FD) rates.
Despite the current high stock prices on Bursa Malaysia, there are still many stocks providing dividend yields higher than the current FD rate of about 2% to 2.5%.
Based on our estimation, the average dividend yield for all stocks on Bursa Malaysia is about 3.5%, which is higher than the current 12-month FD rate of 2.5%.
Nevertheless, investors need to have critical financial information, adequate investment skills as well as be willing to spend time researching information.
There are many research companies providing information on Main Market companies on Bursa Malaysia based on their highest dividend yield, lowest price-earnings ratio (PER) as well as lowest price-to-book ratio (P/BV).
For serious investors, they need to familiarise themselves with these terms. In addition, investors need to know how to analyse the information.
In this article, we will explain how to use the dividend yield ranking. The table shows the top 10 Main Market companies according to highest prospective dividend yield.
Prospective dividend yield is calculated by taking the market price divided by the estimated current year dividend per share (DPS).
For example, Hektar Real Estate Investment Trust (Hektar REIT) shows a prospective dividend yield of 9.53%, which was computed based on the market price of RM1.07 (as at Oct 18) and estimated 2009 DPS of 10.2 sen.
The latest actual dividend yield of 10.01% for Hektar REIT was computed based on the same market price but divided by last year’s actual DPS of 10.71 sen.
Even though the dividend yield for 2009 is anticipated to decline slightly to 9.53% from 10.01% in the previous year, it is still much higher than the current FD rate of 2.5%.
However, investors need to be careful as some of the high dividend yields may be due to one-off special dividend payments.
The companies may not repeat these dividend payments in the following year. Besides, we need to make sure that the latest PER is lower than the overall market PER.
This is to prevent us from paying too high a price against its earnings level. For Hektar REIT, its latest actual PER of 9.45 times is lower than the current market PER of about 11 to 12 times.
This method does not require a lot of time to carry out research. Once we identify good fundamental companies that are paying high dividends every year, we only need to monitor them.
We may not even need to sell the stocks for a long period of time if the companies continue to reward good dividend yields that are higher than FD rates.
Wednesday, November 11, 2009
with a market capitalization in excess of RM 16bn, it owns and operates Genting Highlands Resort (GHR), a premier
leisure and entertainment resort in Malaysia.
outlets, as well international shows and business convention facilities. It was voted the World Leading Casino Resort
(2005, 2007 and 2008) and Asia’s Leading Casino Resort for four successive years (2005-2008) by World Travel Awards.
The Resort received 19.2m visitors in 2008, of which 27% were hotel guests and 73% were day-trippers.
Outlook & Comments
and 11.8% in 6-month, respectively. We believe the discounts are mainly attributable to: 1) investors’ concern on the
potential competitive risk emanating from the Singapore integrated resort, 2) disappointment on the group’s inability to
unlock the value of its cash reserves, 3) fears of another related party transaction.
Current valuations have more than priced in the negative news. GENM’s valuations of 13.6x FY10 PE and 12.9 FY11
PE are cheap against its 2-year historical average 17x PE as well as its regional peers which trade at an average of 43.5x
FY10 PE and 20.5x FY11 PE. If stripping out its net cash/share of 86sen, the stock is only trading at 9.4 FY10 PE and 8.9
that have significantly outperformed FBM KLCI to laggards such as GENM. Apart from being a natural beneficiary of
improving local consumer spending, GENM's attractive valuations, liquidity and price’s under-performance (relative to
KLCI) are likely to draw interest from those investors who are looking for rotational play.
given GENM’s stable earnings visibility and solid balance sheet. Based on Bloomberg estimates, GENM is expected to
record an average RM1.24bn PAT for FY 09-11 while having a RM5.9bn cash pile which is continuing to grow.
based on Star Cruises’ closing price of HK$1.68per share, GENM’s 19.3% stake is worth RM0.18/share. Applying a 20%
discount to the above valuation while adding the net cash of RM0.86/share shall give us a RNAV of RM3.28/share.
average 17x and 26% discount to peers average of 20.5x.
months and was unable to break the downtrend line (DTL) which started from the RM4.60 peak in July 07. For the uptrend
to commence, it is crucial for GENM to consolidate above the 150-day SMA around RM2.70. The next critical support is
RM2.62 (76.4% FR from RM2.49-3.02).
at RM2.78 will drive prices higher to RM2.82 (38.2% FR), RM2.89 (23.6%FR) and YTD high at RM3.02. A tougher
resistance level is RM3.30.
Thursday, November 5, 2009
I would like to ask you about dividend from stocks.
I am still a student and I started trading stocks last year (1.5 years) using RM7000. Now, I have around RM8200 in total after trading some stocks and gain the profit.
I would like to add more money to my account and go for dividend style.
If I am still a student, I receive dividends from stocks, how can IO claim my part dividend that is being Taxed?
I read from a forum saying that dividend is taxed 26%. Since I am not working and my income does not hit the 26% bracket, can I claim my dividend?
Hop to hear from you soon. Thanks. :)
November 3, 2009 2:29:00 PM MYT
Interesting question posted to hng to answer....hahaha
My reply is why not, so long as you are above 18 years of age, you are eligible to make your claim back from the IRD unless of course the dividend vouchers do not carry your name... :)
Who care you are student or jobless !! Just submit your claim Greenleaf....
Thursday, October 29, 2009
You can split your capital into buynhold for long term and buynsell strategy for shortterm. First of all, monitor targeted stock movement and study its 1month-12month range and volume. Develop investment plan for entry and exit price, monitor your stock movement for last few days and initiate buy few first and on share weakness. Later study the next movement. Accumulate if stock direct to further weakness to average down holding cost, provided you are confident stock will rebound as you must already done thorough research that the risk of lossing money is minimum and sell once hit or just before target selling price. Of course, there will be exceptional, if stock keep fail to rebound and further dampen by overall poor sentiment and underweight, you may need to cut loss in accord to exit plan, cut at 10-15% loss In regard to transaction cost, trading online is cheaper. Brokerage for normal online trading is 0.38%; if trade exceed 100k, brokerage cost is at 0.21% and for intraday, brokerage is at 0.15%. Due to current capital size, i always opt to trade above 100k. Take for example, today i've brought glomac at 1.24, if cann't sell today for even 1sen higher (profit RM 205), i still can make profit after T (profit RM 105). If glomac stock heading further downward, i may opt to wait bit longer for its upcoming dividend of 4.5sen, which act as buffer.There is almost impossible to anyone to predict next market direction, thus, anytime is good time of investing. What can be done is do more study and make research on stock with both bottom-up and top-down approach. Belive me, knowledge can lower risk of investing. Stock fundamental is a core (e.g. EPS, dividend yield etc) and complement by technical analysis and stimulate by current market sentiment.I regard to dividend stock, i tend to buy before dividend is declare and sell once it make annoument. I seldome keep dividend as i'm unable to redeem tax dividend back and have to free up capital to invest other similar stock
Thursday, October 22, 2009
Tuesday, October 13, 2009
Master Hng, What is the minimum capital to follow your system?TQ & Rgds
October 8, 2009 10:28:00 PM PDT
IgcsdvPlease don't call anyone master, as we are all at learing stage...I'm not here to sell my strategy or tips, but just like to share with everyone on investment.First of all, one need to have capital disregard any amount 10k, 20k , 100k or 1 milion. I myself start as parttime with intial 10k, 10year ago. Achieve first milestone, reap first profit 100k in 2yr time, but almost all wealth (nearly 500k) get loss after take excessive risk invested in warrant in 6th year (went expire), take rest, and seek job in Sinagpore, recoup capital....restart as fulltime trader/investor in last 2yr, with intital capital 100k until now...
October 9, 2009 12:05:00 AM PDT
Unable to make intraday on GENM and TA :(Sold little Ptaras jaya at 1.43-1.44 and round up stake to 20%.Core portfolio OIB 50% Pintaras Jaya 20%Cheetah: 10.3%Trading portfolioGENM 60% (average cost: 2.724)TA 50% (average cost: 1.375)
October 9, 2009 2:10:00 AM PDT
hng,have a good weeked and good next week as well.
October 9, 2009 2:34:00 AM PDT
just gotten my dividend from Carlsberg & ioicorp :)
October 9, 2009 7:41:00 PM PDT
This morning, sold off all T+1, GENM (at cost 2.724) at 2.75, realize more than a k profit. Sold also T+2, TA (at cost 1.37) at 1.38; realize marginal profit. Portfolio still have T+1, TA at cost 1.38
October 11, 2009 7:42:00 PM PDT
Bought back some GENM at 2.73, and all TA at 1.37...
October 11, 2009 8:17:00 PM PDT
Sold off all GENM at 2.75 again; sold TA at 1.37; bought back again TA at 1.36; and sell back at 1.37...
October 12, 2009 1:02:00 AM PDT
like machine gun, pulling the triger so fast... :)
October 12, 2009 1:33:00 AM PDT
Ha! this is so-call day trading, must act fast and sometime, buyer and seller are same person! just make different of 1sen, one can make few hundred to thousand intraday profit :) Core portfolio OIB 50% Pintaras Jaya 20%Cheetah: 10.3%Trading portfolioTA 30% ( T+2, cost: 1.37)TA 20% (T+1, cost: 1.38)TA 20% (today, cost: 1.36)
October 12, 2009 2:04:00 AM PDT
Hng,No wonder you are doing so well day trading n investing. U r sharing your positions so generously, unlike SAMGOSS. I only have 10k for investment/trading. I opted for forex. I feel that I need at least 200k to follow your trading system. Thanks again for sharing tour trade positions.
October 12, 2009 2:13:00 AM PDT
IgcsdvIf your capital is small, eg. 10k, you should'nt do day trading, but instead should concentrate on fundamental analysis: select stock with dividend and undemanding valuation. Taking profit once catalyst emerge and continue select other value stock. Compound your profit and keep practise until you are confident and accumulate enough capital. This process may take few year and along the way you learn from experience. Wih sufficent experience and capital, then you can learn some technical analysis, start baby step on daytrading and take full force on daytrading only if you're fulltime..
October 12, 2009 2:28:00 AM PDT
IgcsdvIn fact, I'm only start daytrading just few month ago, and most of the time use margin line for quick profit. I'm still buy and hold on core stock using my own capital (Core portfolio) and make full use of margin line to create another source of income throungh daytrading (Trading portfolio). I intend to further speed up wealth accumulation to capitalize on current bullish sentiment.
October 12, 2009 2:37:00 AM PDT
hng,the more u give good advices,the more return u will get.keep it up,bro.keep an eye to tgoff.
October 12, 2009 2:44:00 AM PDT
IgcsdvHow you doing on Forex so far ?Can long EUR/USD, i capture 200pips last week for this pair but on a very insignificant amt. haha. good enough for some free toy.I still think that FOrex is not my cup of tea, just merely play for fun at night.
October 12, 2009 2:45:00 AM PDT
lofan,i'm too eyeing on tgoff. I think i might go in tmr if it dip below 1.10. :) Good call from you there.
October 12, 2009 2:47:00 AM PDT
This morning, bought another 30% TA at 1.37 (margin line hit maximum level)...
October 12, 2009 8:13:00 PM PDT
Sold today 30% TA at 1.38, realize few hundred intraday profit first :)Core portfolio OIB 50% Pintaras Jaya 20%Cheetah: 10.3%Trading portfolioTA 30% ( T+3, cost: 1.37)TA 20% (T+2, cost: 1.38)TA 20% (T+1, cost: 1.36)
October 12, 2009 9:30:00 PM PDT
hng,congrat. make money again. :)I'm just watching doing nothing for now.Genting SP still trading at 1.14, transferring money to my trust account, ready to strike again if it ever go below 1.05.
October 12, 2009 11:06:00 PM PDT
Ha! just sold off T+3 (cost at 1.37) at 1.39, realize few k, T+3 profit :D)Core portfolio OIB 50% Pintaras Jaya 20%Cheetah: 10.3%Trading portfolioTA 20% (T+2, cost: 1.38)TA 20% (T+1, cost: 1.36)
October 12, 2009 11:37:00 PM PDT
wow, touches 1.40 now...Laughing all d way to bank...Can unload all already.. :)
October 12, 2009 11:53:00 PM PDT
Yes! sold off T+2 (cost 1.38); realize more than a k profit. :D) Core portfolio OIB 50% Pintaras Jaya 20%Cheetah: 10.3%Trading portfolioTA 20% (T+1, cost: 1.36)
October 12, 2009 11:59:00 PM PDT
Wow lah!!!!Sold off last portion of TA (cost 1.36) at 1.42; realize more than 10k, T+1 profit ....:) ... :D):
October 13, 2009 12:06:00 AM PDT
Look like TA continue surging.Ha, i've enough, realize contra gain of more than 15k altogether. Afford to take rest now.. Core portfolio OIB 50% Pintaras Jaya 20%Cheetah: 10.3%
October 13, 2009 12:17:00 AM PDT
CONGRAT !!!hohoho...early merry christmas again. :)
Thursday, October 8, 2009
Tuesday, October 6, 2009
Past records have shown that markets can rally for long periods without any major corrections
ONE of the most frequently asked investment question in the world over the past few months is: When are we going to get the major stock market correction we have been waiting for?
Amid the doom and gloom predictions of global economic freefall and capital market disasters, the strong rebound in stock markets (worldwide but more so in emerging Asia and Latin America) since March has surprised many market participants.
Asia’s stock markets have been rallying for the past seven months without any major corrections, with the exception of a 24% and 20% drop in China’s Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets respectively in August. Furthermore, the size of the market rallies have been pretty impressive – for stock markets such as Hong Kong, Singapore, Indonesia (up 67% to 92%), it has been the best rally since 2005.
Many view the global economy to still be in a fragile state over the past seven months, and it seems logical to say (and many did) during this period that the rally was too high, too fast. Consensus view throughout this period is that stock markets are due for a major correction in excess of 15%-20%. Yet months have passed and the global market rally still continues. Rather than follow the consensus view that markets should pullback as stocks have rallied throughout this period, we should ask ourselves two simple questions:
·Do stock markets necessarily have to correct sharply?
Past records have shown that stock markets can rally for long periods without any significant correction. In fact, the sharper the drop, the stronger the rebound; long sustained rallies are not totally unseen before. In 2003, MSCI Emerging Markets rallied 13 months while in 1987, the S&P 500 rallied for 23 months without any significant correction in excess of 10% (see chart below).
We define significant correction as a drop of more than 10% as we have seen periods where stock markets hardly experienced any significant corrections for one to two years.
We believe the values of many companies were already emerging in late September and October of 2008. The subsequent panic sell down were mostly driven by fears of a systemic meltdown of the global financial system. Since then, governments have successfully propped up the financial system.
It is not surprising that global stock markets have recovered to pre-September 2008 levels today. In other words, this rally has placed us back to where we should be.
Markets therefore are not running ahead of fundamentals and there should be more room to improve as companies and economies recover in the months ahead.
·Should we wait for a major stock market correction to buy?
It is great if one is able to time the market; sell before the market corrects and buy back at the dips and make profit. In reality, we all know that it is easier said than done.
Even if one were to know a correction is likely to occur, one may not necessarily be better off. For instance, if one purchases a share at 50 sen and then sells it at RM1.00 anticipating the market is about to correct. Subsequently the share goes up to RM1.20 and then dips to RM1.05, before recovering back to RM 1.20. In this scenario, is one really better off?
Market timing abilities and transaction cost is one part of the story. Equally important, even if broad market corrections are expected, individual stocks may be affected differently.
In the case of good companies, share price behavior may not be so dependent of the broad market, even if a correction does eventually occur. Companies such as Tencent, a China Internet company listed in Hong Kong and Indocement, one of the largest cement producers in Indonesia, are good examples of strong fundamental companies doing well despite broad market movements.
Rather than trying to second guess when the market correction is coming and how deep the correction will be, we find it easier to identify and stay invested in companies that are still undervalued and benefiting from the global recovery.
Finding good value companies to invest in however involves a lot of persistent leg work, research and company visits. But then again, isn’t that the challenge for value investors?