Pending for a breakout
Business Background
Genting Malaysia (GENM) is one of the leading leisure and hospitality corporations in the world. Listed on Bursa Malaysia
with a market capitalization in excess of RM 16bn, it owns and operates Genting Highlands Resort (GHR), a premier
leisure and entertainment resort in Malaysia.
with a market capitalization in excess of RM 16bn, it owns and operates Genting Highlands Resort (GHR), a premier
leisure and entertainment resort in Malaysia.
GHR has 6 hotels with a total of 10,000 rooms, theme parks with over 60 fun rides and attractions, 170 dining and retail
outlets, as well international shows and business convention facilities. It was voted the World Leading Casino Resort
(2005, 2007 and 2008) and Asia’s Leading Casino Resort for four successive years (2005-2008) by World Travel Awards.
The Resort received 19.2m visitors in 2008, of which 27% were hotel guests and 73% were day-trippers.
Outlook & Comments
outlets, as well international shows and business convention facilities. It was voted the World Leading Casino Resort
(2005, 2007 and 2008) and Asia’s Leading Casino Resort for four successive years (2005-2008) by World Travel Awards.
The Resort received 19.2m visitors in 2008, of which 27% were hotel guests and 73% were day-trippers.
Outlook & Comments
A laggard in the KLCI rally. GENM share prices have underperformed the KLCI by 2.7% in 1-month, 13.4% in 3-month
and 11.8% in 6-month, respectively. We believe the discounts are mainly attributable to: 1) investors’ concern on the
potential competitive risk emanating from the Singapore integrated resort, 2) disappointment on the group’s inability to
unlock the value of its cash reserves, 3) fears of another related party transaction.
and 11.8% in 6-month, respectively. We believe the discounts are mainly attributable to: 1) investors’ concern on the
potential competitive risk emanating from the Singapore integrated resort, 2) disappointment on the group’s inability to
unlock the value of its cash reserves, 3) fears of another related party transaction.
Current valuations have more than priced in the negative news. GENM’s valuations of 13.6x FY10 PE and 12.9 FY11
PE are cheap against its 2-year historical average 17x PE as well as its regional peers which trade at an average of 43.5x
FY10 PE and 20.5x FY11 PE. If stripping out its net cash/share of 86sen, the stock is only trading at 9.4 FY10 PE and 8.9
FY11 PE.
Ready for a valuation catch-up: As we head into 2010, we expect investors to shift focus from liquid index-linked stocks
that have significantly outperformed FBM KLCI to laggards such as GENM. Apart from being a natural beneficiary of
improving local consumer spending, GENM's attractive valuations, liquidity and price’s under-performance (relative to
KLCI) are likely to draw interest from those investors who are looking for rotational play.
that have significantly outperformed FBM KLCI to laggards such as GENM. Apart from being a natural beneficiary of
improving local consumer spending, GENM's attractive valuations, liquidity and price’s under-performance (relative to
KLCI) are likely to draw interest from those investors who are looking for rotational play.
Valuation and recommendation
Visible earning and strong cash flow. We believe GENM’s wide valuations gap against its regional peers will narrow
given GENM’s stable earnings visibility and solid balance sheet. Based on Bloomberg estimates, GENM is expected to
record an average RM1.24bn PAT for FY 09-11 while having a RM5.9bn cash pile which is continuing to grow.
given GENM’s stable earnings visibility and solid balance sheet. Based on Bloomberg estimates, GENM is expected to
record an average RM1.24bn PAT for FY 09-11 while having a RM5.9bn cash pile which is continuing to grow.
RNAV at RM3.28/share Based on a 14xPE to FY10 PAT,GENM’s operations are worth approximately RM2.28/share while
based on Star Cruises’ closing price of HK$1.68per share, GENM’s 19.3% stake is worth RM0.18/share. Applying a 20%
discount to the above valuation while adding the net cash of RM0.86/share shall give us a RNAV of RM3.28/share.
based on Star Cruises’ closing price of HK$1.68per share, GENM’s 19.3% stake is worth RM0.18/share. Applying a 20%
discount to the above valuation while adding the net cash of RM0.86/share shall give us a RNAV of RM3.28/share.
Based on the RM3.28 RNAV/share, GENM is trading at 15.1x FY11 PE, which is about 11% discount to its 2-year historical
average 17x and 26% discount to peers average of 20.5x.
average 17x and 26% discount to peers average of 20.5x.
Accumulate around RM2.70-2.75. GENM’s share price has been hovering around the RM2.60-3.00 level for the past 5
months and was unable to break the downtrend line (DTL) which started from the RM4.60 peak in July 07. For the uptrend
to commence, it is crucial for GENM to consolidate above the 150-day SMA around RM2.70. The next critical support is
RM2.62 (76.4% FR from RM2.49-3.02).
months and was unable to break the downtrend line (DTL) which started from the RM4.60 peak in July 07. For the uptrend
to commence, it is crucial for GENM to consolidate above the 150-day SMA around RM2.70. The next critical support is
RM2.62 (76.4% FR from RM2.49-3.02).
Technically, the momentum and trend indicators are gradually bottoming up. A breakout above DTL, which currently stands
at RM2.78 will drive prices higher to RM2.82 (38.2% FR), RM2.89 (23.6%FR) and YTD high at RM3.02. A tougher
resistance level is RM3.30.
at RM2.78 will drive prices higher to RM2.82 (38.2% FR), RM2.89 (23.6%FR) and YTD high at RM3.02. A tougher
resistance level is RM3.30.
Current price 2.79
Upside 17.7%
Upside 17.7%
64 comments:
Bought maximum Genting at 7.05
Selling more Amfirst at 1.08, realizing higher profit margin :)
Genting being bashed down so low. :(
That is the reason why i'm loading almost maximum on Genting at 7.05. There is mismatch in today share price between Genting (down 11sen) and GENM (up 4sen), as well as Genting SP (up 2sen). I've fully exploit on Genting weakness.
In summary, i've fully sold out all Amfirst, realize total more than 10k profit; further reduce stake on Cheetah. Bought some Axiata and maximum Genting
Core portfolio
OIB 9.6%
Lonbisc 8.9%
Cheetah: 7.1%
Hunzpty 2%
Trading portfolio
TA global + ICPS 75%
Genting 86.4%
Axiata 7.6%
Congrat on Amfirst trades. !! :)
Have a feeling that GENM will likely surge higher come tomorrow.
Today, Genting still under selling pressure. Have to wait for for it to ease off, before it can rebound. Portfolio almost fully invested, take some rest now.
Horse
You GENM start performing well, up 3sen.
Ha! my Genting also ease selling pressure, rebounding now also, already on papaer profit, at 7.11 now :)
Yeah! sold off all Genting at 7.13, realize few k profit :D)
Wow!?, market resume selling pressure, down 3pts now, prepare for possibility to buyback Genting :)
Market closed, down 6pts in the morning session. Genting flat, while GENM down 1 sen. Regional market all in negative territiory. Still aim to buyback Genting if on weakness.
Take today bearish market, bought back some Amfirst at 1.06, every 1 sen already can make profit :)
Yeah! just sold back partial Amfirst at 1.07, realize few hundred intraday profit :)
Congrat hng. :)
Making ton already.. laughing all d way to bank. :)
Market under beraish mood, its time to test our capability to beat the market :)
Wow, Amfirst still got a lot of seller, Q to buyback now at 1.05 :)
Yes! sold some OIB at 1.34-1.35; realizing higher paper profit
Bought back half of Genting stake at 7.08
What a day!!1!
Genting rebound successfully; sold back all Genting at 7.18 in last bidding time, realize additional few k intraday profit!!
Bought Amfirst at 1.05; its seem Amfirst have a lot of seller today :)
Today add Hingyap at 1.10-1.11; Hingyap is expected to declare it final dividend of 10sen consist of 7.5sen TE + 2.5sen less tax; yield 9.1%
sold off all OIB at 1.34-1.36 and sold some Cheetah at 55-56sen
Core portfolio
Hinyap 14.9%
Amfirst 11.1%
Lonbisc 8.9%
Cheetah: 6.2%
Hunzpty 2%
Trading portfolio
TA global + ICPS 75%
Axiata 7.6%
Yeah! early morning already sold off all Amfirst at 1.07, realize more than k, T+1 profit :)
Market under correction mood, Amfirst still under selling pressure, there is a lot of motivated seller, believing from institiution investor; better take a break from this counter, until clearer picture :)
Bought Axiata at 3.07, to reduce holding cost
Wow, market recoup earlier loss; lead by CIMB and Maybank
Bought some Hingyap at 1.12
Really Making money in just fingertip.
Good trades mate. :)
Bought more Hingyap at 1.11
horse
'Making money in just fingertip'
As full time trader, dayrading is just my job, earning money each day is very normal. It is however very abnormal if one to loss money.
Imagine employee work everday, derive monthly income e.g 15k from salary, if divided, everyday they get pay 0.5k. There is impossible for them to get negative income every single day.
Thus, it is my routine job to make money every trading day, there is nothing special about this job, except sometime get more pay, while other day get less. However, as full time trader, i have to make effort to avoid any loss. if it happen, i'll treat it as special study case to record down and learn from these mistake and study the reason to avoid repeat similar mistake in future.
Bought more Hingyap at 1.11 in afternoon session
bought more Hingyap at 1.10
Just sold back all today Axiata at 3.10, realize few hundred intraday gain.
Lastly, have decided to buyback all + add more stake on Amfirst at 1.05.
In summary, make higher intraday profit on Amfirst as well as few hundred from daytrade Axiata. Today, add more Hingyap at 1.10-1.12.
Core portfolio
Hingyap 41.7%
Amfirst 21.4%
Lonbisc 8.9%
Cheetah 6.2%
Hunzapty 2%
Trading portfolio
TA global + ICPS 75%
Axiata 7.6%
Hi hng,
See you accumulating Hingyap with big volume at 1.10. I have accumulate some & wanted to get more at lower price. I guess there goes my chance of getting hingyap below 1.10. Mind sharing wht your TP to sell hingyap? Thank you
Steve
Steve
Hingyap is my target now, will keep accumulating until the dividend catalyst is announce :). Target selling price will depend on share performace after dividend is declare, preferably in margin of 10%.
Selling back Amfirst at 1.06
hng,
Then i make sure i need to sell before u do. Becoz with the volume u holding, if u sell ur share, i think it will fall all the way down to the bottom of earth :>
Then i make sure i make 5% is enough...haha.
Steve
Steve
Hingyap should have more upside if value more reasonable PE. With its net cash position, and current PE of just 5x, 0.5 NTA, 10% dividend yield, and recent 'upgrading to Main board' valaution should be gradually appreciate.
There is still about 2 week time for me to accumulate more Hingyap on weakness :)
Steve,
If you follow my previuos posting, most of the core stock holding still appreciate subtantially after my sell off. Take more recent core stock for example: OIB
, i've sell off all OIB at average 1.30; now OIB trade at 1.39.
Beside, bought more hingyap at 1.10-1.11, i've also sold more than half Amfirst at 1.06. Cut further share holding by sold off all Hunzpty at 1.44 and Axiata at 3.11, realize few hundred total one off loss, to free up more capital for next bargain hunt.
hng,
giving up hope on hunzpty already ?
not waiting for its RI and div ?
hng,
I do notice that the share u bought do go up even after u sell it. But for hingyap case, even though the PE is low, I will not keep it for long term. This is because the nature of their business and also it is a small cap & run by family. I guess OIB is different because they are in palm oil. Anyway, I'm also still accumulating as well. I hope it can can to reach to $1.30 like OIB. That will translate into a handsome profit for me.
Steve,
At first, i'm comparing OIB (averge cost of buying: 1.10) can be like Ptaras (cost of buying 1.40), as both also declare 10sen dividend. Now; both still trade cum dividend at 1.37 abd 1.49 respectively.
Now, i'm comparing two previous second board counter that delcare 10sen dividend: Hingyap to compare with TGL, whereby, TGL surge from 98sen to current 1.20 after it declare its dividend.
Its all depend on which parameter you intend to compare, To me, i'm comparing amount of dividend and its yield. As long as stock is value for money and have limitied downside, and buy at relative good saftey of margin, there should be good odds of profiting.
I think your average cost on Hingyap is less than RM 1, if so, you already in very safe position and just wait to reap 20% profit margin.
horse
I'm free up more capital for upcoming bargain hunt on Hingyap and Genting.
GENM is holding steadily :)
likely to break 2.90 soon.
horse
Why no adpot sell and buyback strategy on GENM, make some intraday profit ?
I'm eyeing on Genting
yea, would do that but not now. It haven't hit my target yet.
Have been doing sell & buy back strategy but so far not many trades have allowed me to do so as i can't afford to stare the screen whole day.
just bought more Hingyap at 1.10
bought back all Amfirst at 1.05, realize higher intraday profit :)
Wow! TA regain momentum, still need wait TA global listing :(
Bought first 10% stake of Genting at 7.09
horse
If no have enough time, better adopt buy and hold, sell until share hit or surpass selling price. if not, may regret if sell, but unable to buyback.
By the way, have you manage to get your Maxis IPO. It going o list on these thursday, most of the fund manager have 10-15% upside for Maxis. Good luck if you have it and materialize on listing day.
my effort down to the drain on maxis, did not strike any. :(
Portfolio for today
Core portfolio
Hingyap 58.2%
Amfirst 21.4%
Lonbisc 8.9%
Cheetah 6.2%
Trading portfolio
TA global + ICPS 75%
Genting 10%
Horse
Congratulation, your GENM is soaring now, surpass 2.90, at 2.91 now. Your buy and hold strategy indeed rewarding, well done :)
I've further increase my stake on Genting this morning; bought at 7.10, hope it can perform in par with GENM
bought another 10% stake of Genting at 7.08, average down cost to 7.09.
Sold back some Amfirst at 1.06; bought some OIB at 1.09
Still holding mine. Keep longer a bit, hope to reap more profit. :)
Porfit taking set in fast, market pare down earlier gain, up just 3pts. Portfolio almost fully invested, sideline now...
Core portfolio
Hingyap 61.2%
Amfirst 18.6%
Lonbisc 8.9%
Cheetah 6.2%
Trading portfolio
TA global + ICPS 75%
Genting 30%
hi hng,
The average price of my purchase is slighly below RM1. But now i'm accumulating more. SO it went above 1+. I'm also selling my others hardly move shares and moved it to hingyap.
Steve
So drastic today, from almost 10points up to now 2 points down.
Steve
Good strategy, i'm also apply similar move, to sell more Amfirst and Cheetah, swap capital to buy more Hingyap
horse
Market volatile, after strong run, perhaps its time to take break and lets bluechip to self-correction. However, most of the peeny stock are sufferring now: Affin, affic-wc, Gpacket, Gpacket wa etc
bought Sign at 1.60; for its upcoming dividend of 8sen TE
Bought also some Protasco at 94.5-95sen, for its upcoming dividend of at least 5sen
Wow! market manage to reverse back and close up 1.6pts.
Core portfolio
Hingyap 61.2%
Amfirst 9.8%
Lonbisc 8.9%
Protasco 8.2%
Cheetah 5.1%
Sign 1.5%
Trading portfolio
TA global + ICPS 75%
Genting 30%
hng,
I need to swap my non performing stk to hingyap. Hope hingyap will move up later. I can only look for high dividend stk as i dun priviledge to monitor stk bcoz company blk it. But i really need to thank u for highlighting hingyap.
hng...mind telling us your 61% of hingyap is below or above $500K? really curious.... :>
Steve
Steve
So direct !? wanna to track my position ? above
Portfolio almost fully invested, will increase stake if hingyap continue on weakness by disposing other stock in portfolio. I think, still can afford to wait hingyap until nex week, lets other stocks perform first : Protasco, Sign, Amfirst and Genting
horse
Congratulation on your Citi, share price almost reach your initial target of 4.30; Wow! almost ripe take more than 10% net profit margin, worth few k. Well done!
Stocks that offer dividend yields higher than fixed deposits
Personal Investing - By Ooi Kok Hwa
(investment adviser and managing partner of MRR Consulting)
DUE to the current low interest rate environment, a lot of investors may be wondering whether there are investments that can provide returns higher than fixed deposit (FD) rates.
Despite the current high stock prices on Bursa Malaysia, there are still many stocks providing dividend yields higher than the current FD rate of about 2% to 2.5%.
Based on our estimation, the average dividend yield for all stocks on Bursa Malaysia is about 3.5%, which is higher than the current 12-month FD rate of 2.5%.
Nevertheless, investors need to have critical financial information, adequate investment skills as well as be willing to spend time researching information.
There are many research companies providing information on Main Market companies on Bursa Malaysia based on their highest dividend yield, lowest price-earnings ratio (PER) as well as lowest price-to-book ratio (P/BV).
For serious investors, they need to familiarise themselves with these terms. In addition, investors need to know how to analyse the information.
In this article, we will explain how to use the dividend yield ranking. The table shows the top 10 Main Market companies according to highest prospective dividend yield.
Prospective dividend yield is calculated by taking the market price divided by the estimated current year dividend per share (DPS).
For example, Hektar Real Estate Investment Trust (Hektar REIT) shows a prospective dividend yield of 9.53%, which was computed based on the market price of RM1.07 (as at Oct 18) and estimated 2009 DPS of 10.2 sen.
The latest actual dividend yield of 10.01% for Hektar REIT was computed based on the same market price but divided by last year’s actual DPS of 10.71 sen.
Even though the dividend yield for 2009 is anticipated to decline slightly to 9.53% from 10.01% in the previous year, it is still much higher than the current FD rate of 2.5%.
However, investors need to be careful as some of the high dividend yields may be due to one-off special dividend payments.
The companies may not repeat these dividend payments in the following year. Besides, we need to make sure that the latest PER is lower than the overall market PER.
This is to prevent us from paying too high a price against its earnings level. For Hektar REIT, its latest actual PER of 9.45 times is lower than the current market PER of about 11 to 12 times.
This method does not require a lot of time to carry out research. Once we identify good fundamental companies that are paying high dividends every year, we only need to monitor them.
We may not even need to sell the stocks for a long period of time if the companies continue to reward good dividend yields that are higher than FD rates.
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