Quick Look At Carlsberg

1Q net profit for CARLSBERG is 37.8millions, increased by 77%. This is the first synergy result after acquired Carlsberg Singapore for RM370mil in the fourth quarter last year.

Assuming :-

1Q EPS = 12.38sen

2Q EPS = ??

3Q EPS = ??

4Q EPS = ??

Forecast the future growth by simply multiply 3 of the remaining Q,

Estimated Total EPS = 12.38 X 4 = 49.52sen

Estimated PE = 9.79sen

Estimated Div Yield = 9%

Estimated Div Payout Ratio = 90%

 

Estimated FV = 11 X 49.52 = RM5.44

 

Significantly improved earnings from the synergy effect, likely to make CARLSBG even more appealing. However the forecast maybe just too loose but have given great discount in FV by just merely a low enough figure of 11 times of eps.

 
***********************************************************************************

Carlsberg Malaysia a 'buy': Maybank

Carlsberg Brewery Malaysia Bhd, the nation’s biggest brewery, was raised to “buy” from “hold” at Maybank Investment Bank Bhd, after first quarter profit jumped 77 per cent from a year earlier.

The share price estimate was increased to RM5.50 from RM4.60, Maybank Investment said in a report today. -- Bloomberg

KFIMA Continue Its Robust Earnings Indeed

KFIMA has just release its 4Q result, giving an EPS of 4.68sen comparing to its corresponding Q of 6.39sen which is about 26% decline but however the total financial year ended 31/3/2010 increased by 27% giving total of an impessive EPS of 22.32sen.

Simple FV calculation :-

PE = 0.89/0.2232 = 3.98sen

FV = 5 x 0.2232 = RM1.11

Have not gone into detail study of its 4Q result, briefly, the revenue increased by over 50% but the profit declined by 26% ??? Something missing someway ?? Will do an update once i got the detail information of its 4Q. No matter how, its total fiscal result is still an impressive one as it registered first time above 20sen per share, which is the highest thus far and the propose 5sen dividend is 2sen higher than previous 3sen, that represent a total increase of 67% in dividend and represent a 5.6%p.a DY, much much higher than FD right ? The dividend payout ratio is only about 22% in which i think is relatively low, hopefully, they might increase the dividend payout ratio in future if the remarkable result is continue to be attained.

Update : Have just gone through the report. The decline in profit for this quarter is due to it income tax expense where they get a deferred tax benefit in prior quarter and a higher tax rate this time round. Other factor could be due to its higher cost of sales by additional 12%.

Equity market outlook – Déjà Vu

The global noise emanating from Greece and the United States is a bit unnerving, but it is comfortingly familiar at the same time. The similarity was of course in broad strokes; with the teetering Greece economy threatening to drag down the European Union (EU) growth prospects - seemingly like the US housing bubble knee-capping the US economy. Similar noises were made then and they are being echoed now.

In respect to this, the EU will be dragged down for the next few years whereby the contagion effect and austerity drives will make European assets less attractive and the EU banking system will be under pressure from their loose lending standards to emerging Europe.

Similarly, the SEC investigation into Goldman Sachs’ sales practices sounds like the one made by the Government on the banking system 2 years ago and comes very close to emulating the Lehman’s mini-bonds saga.

The reassuring part of the equation stems from the "been there, done that" approach and how policymakers and markets are viewing these situations. The difference between now and 2 years ago was that markets know the ending, having seen the script before. We could call it global financial crises redux, or v2 if you may.

The announcements over the weekend underlined the EU’s actions on similar lines. We expect comparable measures to be implemented as they have worked before, as there is no point reinventing the wheel. Hence we expect government bailouts to continue (of other governments, not banks) and low interest regime to continue in the EU and in the UK.

Looking at this situation, what does it mean for the rest of the world? The low interest rate regime in the EU and the Fed continue holding low rates means that assets may underweight EU countries due to perceived currency weakness, thus benefitting emerging markets and the US. In the near term, we see these markets and currencies rallying from the movement of capital to better performing economies. This will add pressure to central banks to reconsider hiking rates, which will further fuel painful currency appreciation.

In this environment we believe the US markets and USD may be strong for several reasons. Firstly, the safe haven status of the USD. Secondly, the US bond market is the most liquid asset class globally and is capable of absorbing the billions of assets from rebalancing global portfolios.

Hence, in this scenario, the US market may not underperform emerging markets. This is actually perversely positive for emerging markets, as these markets would have been unable to absorb all the flows from Europe. These flows could have caused emerging markets to spike, and then endure a significant correction.

As the Chinese authorities’ tightening stance adds up to medium term bullishness for equities, we are not changing our view on equity allocations. While we are cognisant of the possible volatility as these events play out, we believe these aftershocks do not have the potential to drastically change the course of the economic recovery. However, in light of the volatility we are lowering the beta of the portfolio to shield it from unnecessary volatility.

Sunway woos REIT cornerstone investors

Largest REIT in Malaysia, save some money for it IPO....:)

KUALA LUMPUR: Sunway City may place out about a fifth of its planned IPO of a real estate investment trust (REIT) to cornerstone investors who have greater holding power for the shares, sources with direct knowledge of the deal said.

The country's sixth-biggest property company by market value is in talks with seven local funds in the hopes of getting some of them to become cornerstone investors in the IPO which is expected to raise around $500 million, Reuters reported on Monday, May 24, quoting the sources.

The Sunway REIT, with a fund size of 2.78 billion units, is set to become Malaysia's largest when it is listed in the third quarter of this year.

Sunway's planned REIT offering has received positive response from investors so far due to its size, steady income source and good growth prospects, a source said.

"This is something significant that investors would not want to miss. The interest is definitely there, the question is pricing," said the source.

The sources could not be named because they were not authorised to speak to the media.

The Sunway REIT will feature some 1.65 billion units for public subscription, of which 1.5 billion are for institutional and selected investors, the company said earlier this month.

"They are talking to seven funds, which consist of insurance funds, unit trust funds, government-linked investment companies, and a few pension funds," said a second source.

Sunway is looking to place out about one-fifth of the offering to cornerstone investors, one of the sources said.

Cornerstone investors normally commit to buy shares before a public listing and promise to hold them until a later date.

Sunway City declined comment.

The issue price of the Sunway REIT will be determined in a book-building process.

Earlier this month, Sunway City said it would receive 2.7 billion ringgit in cash and about 1.0 billion units in the REIT for the eight PROPERTIES it will inject into the unit.

The properties, comprise of shopping malls, office towers, and hotels, have a combined market value of about 3.7 billion ringgit.

Sunway City Group, controlled by Malaysian businessman Jeffery Cheah, will own about 38 percent of Sunway REIT after the listing, which the company said may be completed mid-July. -Reuters

Adverlets Has Finally Paid Me

For once, i've given up hope on Advertlets and decided to withdraw their advertisement but today i finally received the cash out payment from them which have been long waited for. The only thing that they need to do is to beef up the payment process, as it is just take far too long for that. Many has deemed feel cheated including me for once. They protrait the picture that they are non-paying advertising network by delaying payment, i am not sure for what reason. This will drive publisher away. Somehow i think it is not a good sign to company image if this delaying payment keep on remain an issue and unresolved over a long period of time. Hopefully future payment is a smooth one.

EON Capital's board accepts Hong Leong offer

As what i've expected earlier in my post that, the take over would likely to go through between HLBANK & EONCAP. HLBANK would likely to offer right issue to raise fund for the acquisition, in my opinion RI for such an exercise is worth taking up for those existing HLBANK shareholders.

**********************************************************************************

KUALA LUMPUR: EON Capital Bhd's board of directors has accepted Hong Leong Bank Bhd's offer to acquire the former's assets and liabilities for a cash consideration of RM5.06bil or RM7.30 per share.

MIMB Investment Bank Bhd said on behalf of the board that this was after taking into consideration Credit Suisse Securities (M) Sdn Bhd's opinion that the offer was not fair from a financial perspective.

Credit Suisse was appointed as the independent adviser for the deal.

MIMB also said EON Capital's board member Ng Wing Fai's views would also be included in a circular to shareholders for the upcoming EGM.

Ng, whose Primus Pacific Partners (HK) Ltd held a 20.2% stake in EON Capital, has expressed disagreement with the board over the offer.

The investment bank said after taking into consideration Credit Suisse's opinion, the advice of the international adviser Goldman Sachs and all relevant aspects of the offer, the board has resolved that the proposed disposal was in the best interest of the bank.

It said the board would table a resolution at the EGM on the proposed disposal as well as the proposed distribution of the cash proceeds to shareholders.

MIMB said the proposed distribution of the cash proceeds arising from the disposal would be done in two parts - a special dividend estimated to be about RM3.30 billion based on EON Capital's audited financial statements as at December 31, 2009 and, a capital reduction exercise amounting to RM1.76bil.

Free Seats From AIRASIA

Million of free seats given by AirAsia but the problem is this is what i get while trying to search for information.

The response is just overwhelming from the Free Seats Promotion, i've tried since the 1st day on the 18/5/2010 but all i get is above page. :(

Giving a try again today thinking that the traffic could be slowed down but in actual fact the overwhelming response just don't seem to subside. I was just wondering, by time you get to access the site, the good dates & free seats would have gone and grabbed. !! ha ha

Was told by one of my friend, he weaks up as early as 5am in the morning to get to AirAsia site and obviously the traffic is much lesser compare to normal hours. He got it done within minutes. Wow, i don't think i want to do that as i just don't like sacrificing my sleeping time for that coz i hardly have enough sleep already. ha ha

HLBANK to takeover EONCAP ?

My gut feeling telling me that the deal will go through eventually no matter how. The reasons are simple, there being no other bidder on the table and the big boys are eagerly wanting to liquidate.

**********************************************************************************

Credit Suisse says HLB's offer price for EON Cap too low

PETALING JAYA: Credit Suisse Securities (M) Sdn Bhd has deemed Hong Leong Bank Bhd's (HLB) offer price for the assets and liabilities of EON Capital Bhd (EON Cap) too low.

This has put the board of directors of EON Cap in a quandary, sources said. EON Cap's board met yesterday to discuss Credit Suisse's opinion on the offer.

The board had requested for its shares to be suspended from trading, pending an announcement related to the offer.

EON Cap said late yesterday evening that its board meeting had been adjourned “pending further clarification from independent financial adviser Credit Suisse.”

But a party familiar with the deal said with Credit Suisse telling the board that the offer was too low, the board has been put in a tough spot as to what to tell shareholders.

“The board had already said it was going to present the offer to shareholders. Does it now also tell shareholders not to accept the offer?” Sources say the situation is tenuous because HLB has no intention of raising its bid.

From its due diligence of EON Cap, HLB may be inclined to ask EON Cap to make some additional provisioning as a condition to the deal, stemming from what it (HLB) deems as unrecoverable loans.

This could mean that the price HLB is willing to pay for EON Cap may be lower than the RM7.20 per share it last made.

EON Cap is said to be disappointed that HLB has not recognised certain deferred tax assets in its valuation of the former, sources say.

HLB's offer is also priced at around 1.4 times the book value of EON Bank, which some analysts deem as low in light of other banking merger and acquisitions done at higher multiples.

The bottom line is that at present, HLB's offer is the only one on the table for EON Cap's shareholders.

Current market conditions are likely to make it difficult for other bidders, such as Affin Bank Bhd, to raise funds to acquire EON Cap.

If this deal falls through, the next bidder for EON Cap may no longer have the luxury of having a lower threshold of shareholder approval for the deal to go through.

Advertlets Is A Scam !!!

Picture Source from : imDavidLee.com

I wonder is this Ads carry weight? "make more with your blog"

BEWARE bloggers out there. You may end up with a non-paying advertising company if you’ve signed up with Advertlets. All your advertisement effort in your blog may well ran into vain. Obviously, whoever dealing with Adverlets has really found their doom destination and decided to call it quit. All you need to do is simply perform a mere google search of “Adverlets Scam”, you may well serve with ton of complaints from blogger out there crying out for non-paying issue. Of course, a click fraud blog site is deserved to be punished for non-paying but punishing the innocent one for their hard work is way too much to swallow unless they did it ONLY for one reason, Advertlets existence is to Scam advertising money from genuine companies making advertisement through them.

“Payments are processed 30-45 days from the end of the month which you cashed out”.

Yeah yeah !! Clear and understood. So, cash out being make on Feb 2010, waited for another 2 months but no payment made. Sent numerous emails unanswered until a recent one asking for Bank Account details. Furnished the information on the same day but no response after that.

Have finally giving up hope and treat this as a lesson learned, however, decide to blog it up here to warn those that dealing with Advertlets in anyway either by advertising their ads in your blog or direct business dealing with them.

My same advice goes to you from imdavidlee.com :-

“

My Point of View

If you’re still feel hardly to make decision whether to continue displaying Advertlets ads or remove them. Then, please take my last advice: Quit It Now !!! Go For Nuffnang !!! Reason: Will you stay with a company where the boss doesn’t pay for the 1-year work you have done?

“

Be more extra careful, you may get CON. Ha ha.

 

P/S - I have received payment from Advertlets finally. Here

A quick look at GENTING SP

The result for GEN SP 1Q has just been announced yesterday.

I have briefly glanced through the GEN SP financial statements for the 1Q ended March 2010. Lets briefly works out the figures :-

1Q Revenue = S$460 millions

1Q Gross profit = S$180 millions

Est. 1Q Net profit = S$82 millions (Omit the impairment loss on intangible assets and comprehensive loss for time being)

Let’s forecast that the coming growth would remain unchanged for the rest of the Qs.

So, just simply multiply the figures above by 4, that will work out as bellows :-

Full year Est. Net profit = S$82 X 4 = S$328 millions

Total number of issued share = 12,161,880,457

EPS = 328/12161 = 0.027sen

PE = 1/0.027 = 37sen (wow, relatively high!!!)

If you were to factor the impairment loss in, the figure is damn ugly for GEN SP but impairment loss is something worked out base on market value, the accuracy is always questionable. So, over the long run this impairment loss will be recovered over time no matter how either by ways of external or internal sources. Giving the brand name of “GENTING”, recoverable of impairment loss within a year or two is just that easy.

If the forecast figures are what were turned out to be, then, GEN SP 1Q result is indeed a moderate figures overall. Also note that this 3 months quarterly earnings is not a full Q as its actual operation only started on 14 February 2010.

Lets assume the full operation is what it should work out for eventually, then, the calculation will have improved a lot as follows:-

Assuming 1Q 82million profit cover only half of 1Q, then rightfully this figure will need to multiply 2.
Estimated 1Q net profit = 82 x 2 = S$164 millions

Full year Est. Net profit = S$164 x 4 = S$656 millions

EPS = 656/12161 = 0.054sen

PE = 1/0.054 = 18.52sen (wow, this is far much better !!)

***********************************************************************************

Genting Singapore reports 12-fold loss in Q1


Genting Singapore, which operates one of the city-state’s two mega casinos, reported its losses rose 12-fold in the three months to March, hurt by impairment losses on its UK casino operations.


Genting Singapore, a unit of Malaysia’s Genting Bhd, reported late on Thursday a net loss of S$396 million (US$286.5 million) for the first quarter, widening from S$32 million a year ago.


Resorts World at Sentosa, its US$4.8 billion Singapore casino resort which opened on February 14, achieved earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) of S$109 million.


Resorts World is being opened in stages and currently comprises a casino, four hotels, a few restaurants and shops, and a Universal Studios theme park. When fully completed, the complex will have another two hotels, spas and a maritime park with one of the world’s largest aquaria.


Rival Marina Bay Sands, owned by U.S. casino firm Las Vegas Sands, opened partially on April 27.


Las Vegas Sands CEO Sheldon Adelson has said he expects the US$5.5 billion Singapore property to generate EBITDA of over US$1 billion in its first full year of operations. -- Reuters

BToto earnings could rise 10.4pc: OSK

Assuming earnings rise 10.4pc in year 2011, what would this represent to BJTOTO ?

Current Estimated earnings = 410 millions

With 10.4% rise in 2011 = 410 X 10.4% = 452 millions

Estimated EPS = 33.5sen

Estimated PE in 2011 = 13.67

Simple FV would be = 15 X 33.5 = RM5.02 (almost 10% discount from current price)

**********************************************************************************

BToto earnings could rise 10.4pc: OSK

Gaming company Berjaya Sports Toto Bhd (BToto) could expect to see a 10.4 per cent rise in earnings in 2011 with the possibility of a sports betting licence on board.

 

In its research note, OSK Research Sdn Bhd said the earnings projection was based on the legal sports betting market which was equivalent to 50 per cent of the upper end of the unofficial estimate of RM20 billion for the illegal sports betting market.

 

The earnings projection premised on BToto gaining from a realistic 0.5 per cent agency commission rate, said OSK Research Sdn Bhd.

 

It said that the payout structure for sports betting is much higher at about 90 per cent versus traditional numbers forecast operations (NFOs) games' 64 per cent to 66 per cent.

 

"This, coupled with a similarly high tax structure, indicates that the agency commission rate charged by BToto is unlikely to be too lucrative in order to maintain the profitability of the sports betting business which is expected to reside at Ascot Sports Sdn Bhd (potential 51 per cent subsidiary of Berjaya Corp Bhd)," it said.

 

Earlier, Berjaya Corp had requested for a halt in trading today pending an announcement of an acquisition from a related party of the company and a capital-raising exercise.

 

With the acquisition of Ascot Sports, Berjaya Corp will gain if the government decides to legalise sports betting in the country as Ascot Sports will become one of the beneficiaries of the move.

 

Over the longer term, it said all the NFOs will benefit if the government eventually liberalises the sector by leveraging on all the NFOs to expand the distribution network for sports betting to take away market share from illegal operators.

 

"This will be positive for the industry as it will provide a strong leg up on earnings growth given the relatively mature legal NFO gaming market in Malaysia," it said.

 

The research firm said given the limited distribution channels and the fact that the illegal market will continue to thrive given its key advantages of convenience and credit facilities granted, the legal market is unlikely to overtake the illegal market, at least over the immediate to medium term. -- Bernama

 

**********************************************************************************

Berjaya Sports raised to ‘Buy’ at HwangDBS

Berjaya Sports Toto Bhd had its stock rating raised to “buy” from “hold” at HwangDBS Vickers Research Sdn Bhd after the company’s parent agreed to buy a 70 per cent stake in a sports betting company.

Berjaya Sports will benefit because its outlets will be used for the sports betting game, according to HwangDBS, which set its price estimate for Berjaya Sports shares at RM5.20. - Bloomberg

GUINNESS vs CARLSBERG

GUINNESS

1Q EPS = 8.85

2Q EPS = 14.5

3Q EPS = 15.38

4Q EPS = ?? take previous 4Q as guide = 9.07

Estimated total EPS = 47.8sen

Estimated PE = 14.47sen

Div Yield = 6%

Div Payout Ratio = 41/47 = 87%

CARLSBERG

1Q EPS = 7.00

2Q EPS = 4.28
3Q EPS = 7.1
4Q EPS = 6.57
Total EPS = 25.02sen
Estimated PE = 19.58sen
Div Yield = 5%
Div Payout Ratio = 92%

Obviously on paper, GAB provide a better deal than CARLBG. GAB give a better earnings as well as DY, probably due to its better market shares captured in Malaysia but certainly we cannot discount CARLSBG's potential in catching up especially we have yet to see the actual synergies contribution from CARLBG (S) as yet. Further development on both would be very interesting on the coming World Cup 2010 as i believed not only GAB will get a lift on this event. CARLSBG would also benefited from it. After all preferences & flavour still lie on individual interest no mater how.

World Cup 2010 to give Guinness Anchor a lift, says OSK Research

KUALA LUMPUR: OSK Investment Research has maintained its buy call on GUINNESS ANCHOR BHD [] (GAB) at RM6.91 with target price RM7.35, and said the company's earnings were within expectations, with the bottom line figures to date accounting for 76.5% and 78.3% of OSK Research's and consensus estimates.

 

Moving into 4Q10 (April-June), it said sales would remain firm on intensified promotion activities in view of the 2010 World Cup Soccer season.

Since the Malaysian brewery industry rides on seasonal and event factors, the World Cup has been a positive factor for the industry every four years, it said.

The research house expects GAB to see robust numbers in the next quarter, although strong competition from its closest competitor means the risk of downside to earnings will persist.

"We see the stronger earnings on the 2010 World Cup soccer season lifting earnings in 4Q and meeting our earnings forecast.

"As we are making no changes to our earnings estimates or valuation parameters, we maintain our discounted cash flow-derived target price for GAB at RM7.35, with our buy recommendation intact," it said.

Excellent Customer Service

Yesterday just make a call to Dell technical support reporting my faulty USB port on my laptop which still under warranty and today engineer came to my door step to get the whole motherboard replaced. Wow superb & speedy service. This is the kind of customer service i like. Thumb up !!

1. Make a report to dell center and she ask for a thorough diagnostic check over the phone. Confirmed it is faulty and assigned with case number.

2. Engineer call me the next day and arrange a time to get my laptop fit.

As simple as just 1, 2 and done !

When come to stock tradings, there are five things that every successful trader needs to know how to do:

1. Have a method to trade.

2. Have the discipline to follow your method.

3. Have the mental fortitude to accept the fact that losses are part of the game.

4. Have the mental fortitude to accept huge gains.

5. Find a mentor.