The result for GEN SP 1Q has just been announced yesterday.
I have briefly glanced through the GEN SP financial statements for the 1Q ended March 2010. Lets briefly works out the figures :-
1Q Revenue = S$460 millions
1Q Gross profit = S$180 millions
Est. 1Q Net profit = S$82 millions (Omit the impairment loss on intangible assets and comprehensive loss for time being)
Let’s forecast that the coming growth would remain unchanged for the rest of the Qs.
So, just simply multiply the figures above by 4, that will work out as bellows :-
Full year Est. Net profit = S$82 X 4 = S$328 millions
Total number of issued share = 12,161,880,457
EPS = 328/12161 = 0.027sen
PE = 1/0.027 = 37sen (wow, relatively high!!!)
EPS = 328/12161 = 0.027sen
PE = 1/0.027 = 37sen (wow, relatively high!!!)
If you were to factor the impairment loss in, the figure is damn ugly for GEN SP but impairment loss is something worked out base on market value, the accuracy is always questionable. So, over the long run this impairment loss will be recovered over time no matter how either by ways of external or internal sources. Giving the brand name of “GENTING”, recoverable of impairment loss within a year or two is just that easy.
If the forecast figures are what were turned out to be, then, GEN SP 1Q result is indeed a moderate figures overall. Also note that this 3 months quarterly earnings is not a full Q as its actual operation only started on 14 February 2010.
Lets assume the full operation is what it should work out for eventually, then, the calculation will have improved a lot as follows:-
Assuming 1Q 82million profit cover only half of 1Q, then rightfully this figure will need to multiply 2.
Estimated 1Q net profit = 82 x 2 = S$164 millions
Full year Est. Net profit = S$164 x 4 = S$656 millions
EPS = 656/12161 = 0.054sen
PE = 1/0.054 = 18.52sen (wow, this is far much better !!)
Lets assume the full operation is what it should work out for eventually, then, the calculation will have improved a lot as follows:-
Assuming 1Q 82million profit cover only half of 1Q, then rightfully this figure will need to multiply 2.
Estimated 1Q net profit = 82 x 2 = S$164 millions
Full year Est. Net profit = S$164 x 4 = S$656 millions
EPS = 656/12161 = 0.054sen
PE = 1/0.054 = 18.52sen (wow, this is far much better !!)
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Genting Singapore reports 12-fold loss in Q1
Genting Singapore, which operates one of the city-state’s two mega casinos, reported its losses rose 12-fold in the three months to March, hurt by impairment losses on its UK casino operations.
Genting Singapore, a unit of Malaysia’s Genting Bhd, reported late on Thursday a net loss of S$396 million (US$286.5 million) for the first quarter, widening from S$32 million a year ago.
Resorts World at Sentosa, its US$4.8 billion Singapore casino resort which opened on February 14, achieved earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) of S$109 million.
Resorts World is being opened in stages and currently comprises a casino, four hotels, a few restaurants and shops, and a Universal Studios theme park. When fully completed, the complex will have another two hotels, spas and a maritime park with one of the world’s largest aquaria.
Rival Marina Bay Sands, owned by U.S. casino firm Las Vegas Sands, opened partially on April 27.
Las Vegas Sands CEO Sheldon Adelson has said he expects the US$5.5 billion Singapore property to generate EBITDA of over US$1 billion in its first full year of operations. -- Reuters
Genting Singapore, which operates one of the city-state’s two mega casinos, reported its losses rose 12-fold in the three months to March, hurt by impairment losses on its UK casino operations.
Genting Singapore, a unit of Malaysia’s Genting Bhd, reported late on Thursday a net loss of S$396 million (US$286.5 million) for the first quarter, widening from S$32 million a year ago.
Resorts World at Sentosa, its US$4.8 billion Singapore casino resort which opened on February 14, achieved earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) of S$109 million.
Resorts World is being opened in stages and currently comprises a casino, four hotels, a few restaurants and shops, and a Universal Studios theme park. When fully completed, the complex will have another two hotels, spas and a maritime park with one of the world’s largest aquaria.
Rival Marina Bay Sands, owned by U.S. casino firm Las Vegas Sands, opened partially on April 27.
Las Vegas Sands CEO Sheldon Adelson has said he expects the US$5.5 billion Singapore property to generate EBITDA of over US$1 billion in its first full year of operations. -- Reuters
10 comments:
bought more GENM at 2.82
Bought also GENM at 2.84-2.85 in the hope to swing trade for some quick gain, but failed as no last minute rebound this time :(
Update portfolio + Ultramargin line
1. Classic scenic 100% (cost 69sen)
2. Kfima 62% (cost: 97.5sen)
3. Manulife 27.4% (cost 2.65)
4. GENM 20% (2.83)
4. PJ development 11.2% (cost 73.5)
5. MWE 8.1% (cost 94.5sen)
6. OKA 5.2% (cost 60.3sen)
7. CCM Duopharma 3% (cost 2.39)
Second portfolio + margin line
1. CCM duopharma 42.5% (cost 2.40)
2. Chuan 16.2% (cost 60.5sen)
Horse, if you are interested in Genting SP, I think its structured warrant Gen-C3 offers a better bet. With today's closing price of SP and Gen-C3 at S$0.985 and RM 0.04 respectively, Gen-C3's intrinsic value is 0, and it is selling at a premium of 16%. However, as it is expiring in 4/10/2010 and with a historical volatility of 52% (quite high), it has a time value of about 5.6 sen using option pricing as a guide. This means Gen-C3 has a potential 40%(1.6/4)upside. Moreover, it has a high gearing of 14 times and an effective leverage of about 9 times. It is exciting as a leverage play, unlimited upside potential but limited downside. If Genting SP goes up to S$1.30 as some investment banks predicted, Gen-C3 will be closed off at expiry date for about 12 sen,or 3 times more but if the knife cuts the other side, the most you lose is 4 sen per warrant only.
yer analysis on GENSP is PE 1x or PE 10x?
Horse, based on your figures, the price earnings ratio is 100, not 1, ie $1/$.01. RHB has a forcast its core earnings of 2 sen per share, or a PE of 50. If we were to value Genting SP from PE point of view, it is expensive at $1. RHB uses EV/EBITA to value Genting SP at $1.35. It is generally expected that its growth rate will be very high and hence it is arguable whether Genting SP's price is cheap or expensive. It depends on who has a better view of the crystal ball.
KC & Wedding,
Thanks for pointing out my error, as mentioned i just merely make a quick glance through of its earnings.
Today, i did a refresh on its report again and hv thus far make the adjustment i my post.
Overall it is not a good/bad 1Q earnings for GSP, just bearly acceptable.
You are very right there if based on PE alone, i would say at $1 is just it right value for now. Provided it growth rate as u mentioned is superbly high, then the whole senario will be different. Lets hope for the best. :)
KC - btw, are u able to provide the RHB forecast link here ?
Horse, here is the RHB link
http://rhbresearch.blogspot.com/2010/05/genting-singapore-plc-exceeding.html
Horse, you have a very good attitude of accepting comments. We are here to learn from each other and I also hope people point out my wrong analysis or mistakes, if not we never know ourselves.
KC,
thanks for the link.
is always good to hv someone counter check what we hv done. Doing this kind of thing is boring and many time will overlook certain thing.
contructive comments are always welcome, no one is perfect and no one is dare say he is always right as we are just human being.
After so many years in market i'm still finding my niche in longterm investment, transforming from a speculator initially to bluechip and now solely concentrate on dividend ctrs.
One of my friend hv over 20 yrs experience in stock mkt, when i interview him, he told me, he earns nothing over the 20 years until recently i recommended him some REITS div ctrs, he started to accumulate those ctrs & reap some profit slowly, as at now he is happy with that result even venturing in Singapore Reits lately, as he started to realise that wealth is accumulated and not thru speculating/punting, as this kind of method is like gambling, u win some and u lose some.
I'm not saying my way is the best, every individual hv thier own. Like hng, his method suit him well as a fulltimer and his div play also superb as u can see his track record so far. I believe yr method also suit you well.
Many ppl trade based on tips, this type of investor will soon find it hard to hv it own way of success. Eventually, they are destine to fail. So, one must equip themselve by sharping your own saw, like what you hv possessed the skill/method to analyst stock and scrutinize the financial report to find it true mean value. The best way to investment is to invest yrself by enhancing the power of financial knowledge & report study.
Investment is a long hual thing, the greatest enemy is our own emotion, i sometime find it hard to succumb as well. One we bet wrongly, emotion started to overrule our judgement, by then we are unable to think well. Always make wrong decision. :(
Horse, we have a common goal in searching for small cap undervalued stocks to invest for long term. It is very hard to find the undervalued big cap stocks nowadays. I differ with you that I do not fancy high dividend stocks. With the single tier tax system, dividends declared will be taxed 25% at source and there is no more tax imputation. This does not benefit me as one who has no other income. If instead a company reinvests its excess cash back into the business with higher return, it should enhance the future earnings, and hence the share price. We can then sell some of the shares if we need cash or if the valuation is too high then. There is no capital gain tax in Malaysia. Of course this is provided that the management does not squander off all the cash away. Besides earnings, I am also very particular about ROIC, ROE, growths of revenue, earnings, equity and free cash flows, for one year and for 5 years. I also punt, especially in warrants and structured warrants by trying to find any perceived mis-pricings between the warrants and the underlying shares. Not that easy though to make money. As I have mentioned before, I find day trading hard to make money, mainly because of all the transaction costs. Hope we can share information and learn from each other.
KC,
i presume u r a fulltimer like hng from what u've described above. r u?
many ppl assess stocks differently, it depend whoes matrix is the best & suit one style.
One underlying factor that draw the price up of a ctr is none other than the very basic fundamental fact that, d stock has to be a profit making & sustainable company. That no doubt about it, so just concentrate on this factor is good enough to make some money thru stock mkt. It is just as simple as that. Even if i punt also with solid company not speculating in where i use to be very active long long time ago.
My target is simple every year, so long as i get more than FD return i am happy, just need to keep doing so before my retirement. :)
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