Saturday, December 11, 2010

BJTOTO - Time To Scoop ?



1. I did a scalp trade again on Gamuda-CI. :) Quick in quick out and fast money. :)

2. C has reached USD4.77 yesterday. I continue to be bullish on C, as now that the government has unloaded its stake in the company. Minimum USD5 is not a problem. :)

3. We should be glad if BJTOTO drop below RM4 due to below news, that's mean is an opportunity for us to grab more. 1 or 2 Q profit drop is nothing, so long as we know the future projection is good and dividends keep coming. :) We should be happy when people are in fear. Just watch and see how much we can scoop if it really come. :) 


BToto Q2 net profit down on higher prize payout, duty
PETALING JAYA: Berjaya Sports Toto Bhd (BToto) made a net profit of RM65.1mil for its second quarter ended Oct 31, which is 36.5% lower than the RM102.5mil posted in the same quarter last year, mainly on higher prize payout and pool betting duty.

Revenue for the period came in at RM845.8mil against RM857.1mil previously while earnings per share stood at 4.87 sen compared with 7.62 sen. The numbers-forecast operator declared a second interim single-tier exempt dividend of 4 sen per share for the quarter.

The drop in revenue and profits was due to lower number of draws and an increase in pool betting duty from 6% to 8%, coupled with higher prize payout, BToto told Bursa Malaysia yesterday.

Barring unforeseen circumstances, the directors are optimistic that the group's operating performance for the remaining quarters of the financial year ending April 30, 2011 will remain satisfactory, it said.

For the six months ended Oct 31, BToto made a net profit of RM129mil compared with RM203mil a year earlier.

12 comments:

elmo said...

Hi Horse,

Long time no see. I see you are confronted with the option whether to scoop or not to scoop when coming to this sneaky share… BJToto. I too am confused. It’s not as easy as Buffett’s words of wisdom when he said it in his twenties.. “Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful”. BJToto is slippery, to me it’s slimier than the slipperiest eel I have ever caught! We have to take a closer look at what makes our efficient market dump this share? Why the price drop and have not recovered over the last 12 months? It’s just beyond my expectation.

It’s not as simple as a straight forward maths. They quoted 2 reasons for the poor performance of BJToto….1) higher payout prizes and 2) higher pool betting duty.

Higher payout prizes: If you read the quarterly reports over the past 1 year, this has been the recurring reason for BJtoto’s poor performance. In betting, “recurrence” of “bad luck” is difficult for shareholders to stomach. Is there something wrong with the system/company or what? Some directors up there need to exorcise the gaming attar before we are on one slippery road downhill!

2nd reason – Higher pool betting tax/duty: this one is even more interesting. When in this country have the gov’t been kind to “sin” industries? When coming to taxation of gaming industries, cigarettes and alcohol drinks, taxation always defies the law of gravity. That goes up will never comedown again! Correct me if I am wrong. So don’t bet this duty-problem BJtoto is facing is going to go away.

Now, to counter that for the “benefit” of shareholders, they applied to reduce the payout prizes for the draw… from RM200 to ??RM180. Good. But how are the clients going to take it? If you or I were to play these additive games and get lower pay out prizes with the same amount of cost-per-game? I feel short changed too. I have to look for a more “profitable” avenue to try my luck? Genting? Of horse racing? Tht’s something new. How about , like illegal cigarettes, I too will move on to look for “under water” illegal betting outlets.. where these gaming duty donot reach them? Bet they will “offer” you the same old payout or more! What then next? If BJToto is going to lost her clients to the illegal betting syndicates, will her business going to pick up in the near future? Anybody's guess.

Now let’s look back to the past performance of BJToto. 4 sen Dividend this quarter is an insult to the shareholders! As long as the records shows, BJToto never pay it’s share holders less than 5 sens per quarter! Ten years back when business was bad- I mean REAL BAD!, she scraped out 25sen that year to the shareholders.. Divide that by 4 and it’s higher than 5 sen per quarter!

In the happier days we were having returns of 51sen per year!

Back to our drawing board:To scoop or not to scoop? I might, but not on fundamental reasoning. Unless I see this sneako Vincent going to fry up this share like what he used to do in his good old days. I haven't seen him doing this for quite sometimes now. Has he lost his magic or may be Age is catching up with him. Pass him some Viagra boy. Yes, a stronger forte version.

Until then good luck pal.

elmo

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horse said...

hi elmo,

long time no see. how do you fare in your investment lately ??

good analytical view on BJtoto.

straight forward approach for me on BJtoto, i will start scooping if it ever drop below RM3.80 irregardless what. :)

elmo said...

Horse, I have not been very active lately in the market. After selling off all my shares in Resorts (GenM) average of 3.20RM and Genting from 7.50 to 7.90RM the prices of both stocks flew off to my horror! esp the Genting counter! Still feeling the pain of missing the main bulk of the winnings. Well that's the name of the game.Just have to take it.

Actully i planned to get out of the market at KLCI 1450 but the market seems not to slowdown.The GREEDY part inside me hanged on to my other stocks for the "last bite". I still have my AXREIT; BJTOTO (BLACKSHEEP); BURSA; DLADY; GAB; JTINTER;MAYBANK and my money printing machine PBBANK!.

The market IS sort of jitterily high at the moment. But you know, players are crazy. We have to follow the crowd to be greedy too.But keep an eye on the exit door. When the ground moves, I am out!
elmo

horse said...

in fact no need to fear much on your holdings. all of them are solid one. :)

I am still clinging most of my holdings as well. Sold most of my GENM and Genting at low price as well. Left some insignificant units. :(

My major holdings are now on REITs and GSP. DY is still my prefered choice. To relieve my itch, i trade small on call warrant while riding on the rally on my current stocks. Definitely keeping an eye on exit door but i have a feeling it won't come so soon but anything can happen when come to investment. Never under estimate the market, been thru the up & down so should at least learned from previous mistake. :)

Good luck. :)

Anonymous said...

ha!, manage to secure about 75% excess PJdev-WA under over subscription at just 2sen!!!.

All PJdev-WA (both PJdev own portion + excess application at 2sen) all sold out in early morning at 28-28.5sen, reaping handsome profit!!!!!!!!!!

Anonymous said...

Yeah! Sold off also all remainin g PJdev at 78.5-79sen.

Overall, portfolio have achieve and surpass almost double of my original target ROI 0f 50% to 100%. In essence, i have double up my total capital these year :D)

A bulk of return are contributed by PJdev and today PJdev-WC + excess entitlement from PJdev-WC at cost of only 2sen. This return off course magnify by margin, which help to double up profit.

Anonymous said...

Portfolio now bought more uchitech at 1.33 and would like to end portfolio very soon.

Portfolio likely to enjoy Uchitech dividend of 5sen TE by this month, treat this as bonus for year end. After all. the hard work already payoff and exceed KPI with double up my total capital.

Its time to plan for next year KPI, should be more prudent and likely to set at lower target to protect capital while aiming for reasonable return.

horse said...

congrat hng !! :)
thumb UP !! :)

WK said...

USD dropping... wont affect uchitec?

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