Sunday, July 28, 2013

Weekly Trades - 4th Week Of JULY 2013

DAY TRADES : 23/7/2013
 
DAY TRADES : 24/7/2013 

DAY TRADES : 25/7/2013
 
DAY TRADES : 26/7/2013

1. Watch List : KPS, PUNCAK, RCECAP

2. Good Luck. ^^

78 comments:

Teng said...

TheStar-Is OSKProperty going private too?

cheeheng said...

sold off KPS @1.76 for quick contra profit.

cheeheng said...

bought GOB @0.84.

lg said...

cheeheng,
gob can rebound?

hng said...

Bought back YTL-Power WB at 51.5sen

cheeheng said...

lg
support for GOB is at .080 sen,resistance @0.875.Let's see how it goes.

New Investor said...

KPS has some update finally !

http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/1362929

horse said...

sold KPS @ 1.73 & 1.75 respectively. ^^

horse said...

cheeheng,

Any news on GOB?
seem not bad.

lg said...

today's volume limelight is sona's debut.

cheeheng said...

horse
bought it after reading this:


INVESTMENT MERIT

An unpolished gem. Apart from owning >200 acres of landbank in Batu Kawan, the group is also one of the few established developers in Seri Kembangan with a remaining landbank size of >200 acres as well. Besides, it also has two prominent joint-venture projects namely da:men or Gateway (a new mall in USJ Subang Jaya) and a mixed development in K.L. with Lembaga Getah Malaysia with gross development values (“GDV”) of RM1,000m and RM860m respectively. Based on our best guesstimates, this two 2 projects together with its ongoing projects in Seri Kembangan and Batu Kawan should provide ≈RM2.0b in GDV for the next 4-5 years.

- Numbers are getting better. The earnings has turned back into the black in FY11 after three consecutive years of loss-making. It has also recorded c.RM32m net profits for the last two financial years. In its recent 4QFY13 results, the group’s revenue increased by 55.3% to RM73.6m as compared to RM47.4m in 4QFY12 or 9.9% as compared to RM67.0m in 3QFY13. Its pre-tax profit also increased significantly to RM17.6m from RM1.3m in 4QFY12 and 14.6m in 3QFY13. Its net profit, however, were flat at RM32.0m for the last two years due to a lower taxation in FY12 of 10.6% vs. 28.1% in FY13.

- A laggard play? Being one of the potential beneficiaries of the opening of the Second Penang Bridge, the stock has underperformed its peers such as Tambun Indah (Not Rated) by 31.4% while it has performed inline with KLPRP Index.

- Deep in value? Based on our calculations, we believe that GOB will be able to register approximately RM36m in net profit or an EPS of 15.8 sen in FY14, representing <4.5x PER at this level. The RNAV for the stock is high at RM3.08/share and the projected FY14 book value per share (“BPS”) is at RM1.27.

- TRADING BUY with a fair value (“FV”) of RM1.23 based on a conservative 60% discount to its RNAV, implying a targeted FY14 PER and PBV of 7.8x and 0.97, respectively. These valuations are not excessive vis-à-vis the small cap property stocks average of 11.4x and 0.98x, respectively.

TECHNICALS

- Resistance: RM0.72(R1), RM1.10 (R2)

Comments: A bullish “Flag” formation appears to be taking shape on the daily chart. Should the share price break above the RM0.72 resistance, we reckon that GOB could potentially extend its gains towards RM0.85, and possibly RM1.10 next. Watch for a breakout.

BUSINESS OVERVIEW

Global Oriental Berhad (“GOB”) (formerly known as Equine Capital Berhad) was listed on the Main Market of Bursa Malaysia on 28 October 2003. The GOB Group is principally involved in the development of residential and commercial properties, and sale of development lands. Over the years, the group has successfully developed and handed over more than 6,800 units of residential and commercial properties with a GDV of more than RM1.3b. Its niche in township development since 1992 is best exemplified by its three flagship projects namely Taman Equine, Putra Permai and Pusat Bandar Putra Permai.

Source: Kenanga

cheeheng said...

and this:

We are adding 15,000 Global Oriental Berhad (“GOB”) @ RM0.83 each to our Thematic and Growth Portfolios. The
stock has been highlighted in our On Our Radar series report on 4 June 2013 @ RM0.685, where we have a TRADING BUY recommendation on the stock with RM1.23 target price . To recap, We believe GOB is due for rerating in view of its ample of landbank. Apart from owning >200 acres of landbank in Batu Kawan and Seri Kembangan, the group also has two prominent JV projects namely da:men or Gateway (a new mall in USJ Subang Jaya) and a mixed development in K.L. with Lembaga Getah Malaysia with GDV of RM1,000m and RM860m, respectively. Based on our best guesstimates, this two projects together with its ongoing projects in Seri Kembangan and Batu Kawan should provide c.RM2.0b GDV for the next 4-5 years. Based on our calculations, we believe that GOB will be able to register approximately RM36m (+12.5% YoY) in net profit or an EPS of 15.8 sen in FY14, representing <5.5x PER at this level. The RNAV for the stock is high at RM3.08/share and the projected FY14 book value per share (“BPS”) is at RM1.27. Our GOB fair value of RM1.23 is based on a conservative 60% discount to its RNAV, implying a targeted FY14 PER and PBV of 7.8x and 0.97, respectively. These valuations are not excessive as compared to the small cap property stocks average of 11.4x and 0.98x, respectively.

Source: Kenanga

Teng said...

CheeHeng

What is relation between GOB and Equine park?

Teng said...

CheeHeng

I google GOB and only realized Equine Capital is now known as GOB

Damen construction progress is very slow.Maybe they want to complete project only LRT extension complete?

cheeheng said...

Teng
Actually I know very little about GOB.I know Equine Capital's Iousy stock.Now name change,return to profitability,methinks this one worth a bet.

Teng said...

CheeHeng

I know Equine Park because I was looking for property for own stay around 2009.Then Damen,which is just opposite USJ2( I was staying there till 2011). At that time,Damen was selling very well <1000sf service aprtment for RM500K,which consider high at that time)

Based on their RNAV,EPS etc,it is worth taking a look at GOB

cheeheng said...

Teng
Kenanga target price RM 1.23. I only required a 20% return from current price.Sell around RM 1.00 good enough fr me.

cheeheng said...

here comes GOB !

Teng said...

KPS here come again

cheeheng said...

Teng
yeah,hope uptrend can break RM2.00 this time round.

cheeheng said...

bought Ytlpwr wb@0.495

hng said...

Bought more YTL Power-WB at 47.5sen

Eric Kang said...

Hi Hng,
I am a silent reader in this blog.
Thank you for your call in KPS, Jaks and lots more.
I joined you in purchasing ytlpower-wb at 515 and 505.
In your opinion, would it be better to cut loss?
This is because ytlpower-wb has been downgraded to hold.
Please refer to the link below:
http://www.thestar.com.my/Business/Business-News/2013/07/31/YTL-Power-riskreward-not-compelling.aspx

Your opinion and other sifus opinions are highly appreciated!

Thanks.

horse said...

wow !! market being bashed down so badly. :(

horse said...

Need to see 2nd half, if still no improvement, have to wait till tomorrow to start buy in.

hng said...

Used up all margin line, bought ultramax YTLpower-WB at 46sen

hng said...

I simply don't understand, why Maybank failed to highlight recent contract award to YTL Power to supply chromebook and Mobile lab to over 2000 secondary school !?

Mobile lab cost RM 86,000 each: 2,839 unit x RM 86,000 = RM 244m
Chromebooks cost RM 1,255 each: 116,399 units x RM 1,255 = RM 146m

News:
YTLC equipped for 1BestariNet project
Kamalanathan: YTLC equipped for 1BestariNet project
Business & Markets 2013
Written by Fatin Rasyiqah Mustaza of theedgemalaysia.com
Wednesday, 24 July 2013 09:51

KUALA LUMPUR: YTL Communications Sdn Bhd (YTLC), a unit of YTL POWER INTERNATIONAL BHD [ ], is well equipped to undertake the 1BestariNet and Chromebook (laptop) supply projects, said Second Deputy Education Minister, P Kamalanathan.

“They have the ability to do the job. We have seen some of the work they have done and we are very impressed with it,” he told The Edge Financial Daily in an interview.


He said the bidding process for both projects was evaluated and monitored by the Performance Management and Delivery Unit (Pemandu), the Malaysian Administrative Modernisation and Management Planning Unit (Mampu) as well as the Securities Commission.

Kamalanathan said YTLC would not only provide its 4G Yes Internet service and virtual learning environment (VLE) and the Chromebooks, it will also erect its own transmission towers and build mobile labs as part of the contract.

He said that with a long-term project such as this, YTLC has more cost advantage and offers “a lot of value-add” for both projects as the company is able to provide various services in one bundle.

“Why would we ask two or three people to do the job when we can have only one person to do it?” he asked. Kamalanthan revealed that 19 companies had put in bids for the 1BestariNet project and only six were shortlisted. The companies shortlisted were Celcom Axiata Bhd, Maxis Bhd, Multimedia Synergy Corp Bhd, TELEKOM MALAYSIA BHD [ ] and TIME DOTCOM BHD [ ] as well as YTLC.

As for the supply of Chromebooks, Matrix One Solution Sdn Bhd, Mutiara Smart Computing Sdn Bhd, Trustwell Sdn Bhd, Bitara Induk Sdn Bhd and YTLC were the companies shortlisted for the job.

“The company chosen for the job was evaluated through its competency and capabilities in implementing the project at a very affordable rate,” said Kamalanathan.

The 1BestariNet contract, which was authorised by the Finance Ministry, is valued at RM663 million for a tenure of 2½ years. The project was implemented in January 2012. According to Kamalanathan, RM463 million has already been paid to YTLC.

As at May 31, 2013, the company had completed 1,503 transmission towers or customer premises equipment (CPE).

As for the supply of Chromebooks, each unit is priced at RM1,255 and comes with a three-year guarantee.

The project took off last month and will be implemented in phases. YTLC will be providing 116,399 units for 2,839 “mobile labs”.

These mobile labs, which are portable storage and charging trolleys equipped with WiFi, enable teachers to utilise the Chromebooks in their classrooms. Each mobile lab, costing about RM86,000, can hold 41 Chromebooks.

The Education Ministry is currently targeting 2,002 schools, mainly secondary schools, for the Chromebook project.

The 1BestariNet and Chromebook supply projects have of late come under heavy criticism from the opposition coalition.

The DAP MP for Bukit Bendera Zairil Khir Johari had, among other things, questioned the rationale for awarding “several projects worth RM9 billion” to YTLC.

Kamalanathan, however, refuted the figure, saying “I want to know where he [Zairil] got the RM9 billion figure. He did not calculate it the right way”.

hng said...

Eric Kang

Based on 3Q result: PBT for Power generation (151m: profit margin 18%); Utilities/Power Seraya (507m: profit margin 5.8%); water and sewerage (506m: profit margin 27%); Brondband/1besterinet (loss RM 193m).

The loss in broadband attributed to 17% of the total earning. According to YTL Power management, YTL broadband division is expect to breakeven by end of 2013. If materialize, YTLP without take into account potential future earning contribution from broadband, just alone breakeven already is earning enhancer by as much as 17% in EPS already.

In addition, YTL Power majority of earning contribute by oversea concession, currency appreciation UK pound and Sing dollar against ringgit, will add more earning to YTL P bottom line.

lg said...

what will be the good counters to buy in?

horse said...

KPS rebounce fast.

hng, do you still holding kps ?

Teng said...

Hng

Weak MYR good or bad for YTLPower?I know many years ago reading YTL CEO comment he always/prefer loan local currency( except for start up fund that need MYR funding) to fund any acquisition. For example,YTL will loan British pound for any acquisition in UK

hng said...

Teng

Of course weaker RM is better for YTLP. Every Sing dollar or UK pound earing after payoff schedule loan amount based on local currency (offset loan), surplus will be converted to RM profit

hng said...

horse

Yes, KPS and Puncak are my two core stocks mow.

New Investor said...

KPS is running...

horse said...

KPS like never taking rest, up down so fast. Must grab back if dip to 1.70 level.

cheeheng said...

Also bought YTLPOWR WB @0.46

cheeheng said...

whoa,selling is fierce,2moro more selling I think.

horse said...

cheeheng,

u have a lot of bullet huh...^^
keep shopping..^^

ck5354 said...

KPS holder take note:

5843 KPS KUMPULAN PERANGSANG SELANGOR
KPS-Employee Share Option Scheme ("Scheme")

LISTING'S CIRCULAR NO. L/Q : 68436 OF 2013
Kindly be advised that the abovementioned Companys additional 1,923,051 new
ordinary shares of RM1.00 each issued pursuant to the aforesaid Scheme will be
granted listing and quotation with effect from 9.00 a.m., Thursday, 1 August
2013.
Sr Mgr, Issuers, Listing Div

hng said...

Decided to sold KPS at 1.80-1.81 first

Derick said...

KLCI support at 50MA.

hng said...

Bought back some MKland at 35.5sen

ck5354 said...

Hng,

Did u notice TMS big buy and sell volume???

Any chances for us to play???

hng said...

ck5354

if wan TMS exposure, opt for its WA for cheaper entry

horse said...

Queuing to buy rcecap.

hng said...

horse

RCE 1.5en dividend is good, but management in last quarter report expect more bad debt provision/ write off in coming quarter :(

alwayswin111 said...

Cheeheng, Hng
Are you still holding MBSB ?

Teng said...

RCE price is supported by share buyback.But new BNM rule limiting personal loan of max 10 years affecting MBSB and RCE Capital

hng said...

Teng

BNM has force those non banking lending companay to clean up their non performing loan to be in par with banking industry. RCE need to make effort to make written off it bad debt and clean up its book to comply with new rules.

Titus said...

horse,

Any news on RCEcap? I have been holding this stock for long long time. I seen a frequent buyback by the company.

hng said...

Bought back all KPS at 1.77-1.79

cheeheng said...

alwayswin111

yeah,still have, good results but stock still go down :(

hng said...

I still think YTLP and its WB offer more upside

hng said...

YTLP need to break again RM 1.68 in order to resume uptrend to next resistance level 1.85

lg said...

hng,
kps - suprisingly the esos didn't impact much on the share price today - am i right?

hng said...

Sold off Puncak at 2.43 first, realize loss first.

hng said...

Ig

All the ESOS already expire on 31 July. Those entitle director and management team must excise ESOS share before it lapse. Listing of ESOS share will be tailing soon.

lg said...

hng,
i see.. are you thinking of swapping puncak to kps & make back?

thanks!

hng said...

Ig

Yes...

hng said...

Ig

If wan to get involve in Selangor water restructuring theme. I think KPS has upperhand compared with Puncak.

Once KPS fixed the EGM date, stock will restart its upswing again, breaking RM 2.00 is just a matter of time. KPS have trio advantage over Puncak: firstly disposal of KHSB give rise write back of previous provision, increase its NTA to more than RM 3.00, Secondly, part of the proceed from disposal will be reward back to shareholder through special dividend payout 26.6sen, or 15% yield. Thirdly, if Selangor state water restructuring materialize, both Puncak and KPS stand to reap huge lump sum windfall profit and but only KPS have better chance to reward another round of special dividend to shareholder as KDEB is its holding company

lg said...

sounds like a good idea. me too on paper loss still. puncak might take much longer time to move.

thanks.

hng said...

The absolute price for KPS is RM 1.78 vs, Puncak RM 2.41. However, in turn of valuation, Puncak is cheaper than KPS (PE 4.5x vs. 10x).

But, Puncak have 2 derivative, Puncak-WA and convertible sukuk, both are dilution factors, (Puncak-WA conversion is RM 1.00; Puncak sukuk at RM 2.00)

lg said...

at least there is foresee-able gain from kps special div.
10x puncak = 13.5xkps. if both rise 26cents, kps still get to "untung" more

hng said...

Ya, bought more KPS at 1.77

horse said...

will see if any chance to buy back KPS tomorrow. ^^

hng said...

Many investor have perceived YTLP is debt burden after it incur huge capex to develop Wimax and yet is not delivering earning. Well, no doubt YTLP total debt is increase from 20,553m to 23,468m, or 14% (+ RM 2,915m); but bear in mind, YTLP net cash increase also 6,638m to 10,184m, or 53.4% (+ 3,546m); resulting in actual net increase in cash of RM631m despite being developing Wimax from scratch.

Lets compared current and 3 year ago YTL balance sheet to reexamine its financial strength after it start venture into Wimax.

2010 (2013)

Non current assets: 23,407 (25,606)
Current asset: 9,473 (13,769)
Cash: 6,638 (10,925)
Total asset : 32,880 (39,375)
Total equity: 6,956 (10,184)

Non current liab: 21,181 (23,940)
Current liab: 4,742 (5,249
LT Borrowing+ bond: 18,233 (20,908)
Current borrowing: 2,32 (2,56)
Total Liab: 25,923 (29,190)

Net Asset per share: 1.00 (1.36)

Financial ratio:

1. Net Gearing : 2.95 (2.30)
2. Current ratio: 1.998 (2.62)
3. Cash ratio: 1.40 (2.08)
4. Debt ratio: 0.788 (0.741)
5. Debt/equity ratio: 3.726 (2.866)

Valuation

1. Share price/book: 2.27 (1.205)
2. PE: 12.1x (10.9x)
3. DY: 13.13sen (nil)
4. Yield : 5.8% (nil)

(Remark: YTLP share price on 2 Aug 2010 was RM 2.27; annualized EPS 18.66sen vs. current share price RM 1.64; annualized EPS=15sen)

hng said...

Bank Negara’s regulations to dampen household debt, specifically the one that deals with lowering the tenures for personal loans from 25 years to 10 years.
The non-bank financial institutions (NBFIs), or shadow banks, were less than happy with this ruling. Angkasa, the umbrella bodies for cooperatives which enable deductions from the salary for government servants, came out to say they would lose money.

Koperasi Jess Johor complains that the new regulations will force them to include “loans from other sources which are not in the payslip such as housing and car loans as well as credit card” when calculating the 60 percent debt-to-income ratio to determine loan limits.

This would make “most of the members unqualified even for a small loan from us now”. If the entirety of one’s debt when including credit cards and private loans exceeds 60 percent, then has one any business getting loans that would take up to 25 years to pay off?

Bank Negara Malaysia had introduced guidelines early last year that would require the debt service ratio to include all debt obligations. Yes, BNM at that time had no jurisdiction over cooperatives or NBFIs, but the Cooperatives Commission was supposed to impose similar requirements on the organisations under them.

Source KiniBiz

hng said...

Yeah, hope my swap is correct, KPS outperform puncak

Derick said...

Hng
Good moved :-)

horse said...

Still queuing rcecap...
Hope to get some. The 1.5sen dividend is hard to resist. ^^

lg said...

hng,
if were to buy puncak , would buying it's warrant a better choice?

hng said...

Ig

Puncak-WA offer cheaper entry, but if Puncak declare special dividend after water restructuring, warrant holder will entitle.

hng said...

Sold off all KPS at 1.85-1.86 first

hng said...

Bought back KPS at 1.83

alwayswin111 said...

Hng
congrats... keng.....

hng said...

Bought back all KPS at 1.80

Teng said...

Bought some GOB at 81.5 cents

hng said...

Just want to update new development and its source link which may impact on YTLP.

a) Electricity charges in Indonesia will rise an average 4.3%, effective April 1, 2013.

Positive impact on PT JAWAPT Jawa Power which owns a 1,220MW coal-fired power plant located at the Paiton Power Generation Complex in East Java

http://www.balidiscovery.com/messages/message.asp?Id=9266
http://www.jakartaupdates.com/2085-the-electricity-price-increased-effective-1-january-2013-for-large-customers

b) 30% stake in Jordan- potential earning capacities from next IPP (500MW) since 2017

https://www.enefit.com/news/-/news/2013/06/13/enefit-jordan-given-green-light-by-ministry-of-environment-to-proceed-with-oil-shale-fired-power-plant

c) Average household water bill to rise by 3.5% to £388 a year

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/9849057/Average-household-water-bill-to-rise-by-3.5pc-to-388-a-year.html
http://www.theguardian.com/money/2013/feb/09/rising-water-bills-profits

d) Underestimate of 33.5% in ELECTRANET- - revenue and price hike in 2014-2018

http://www.aer.gov.au/sites/default/file/ElectraNet%20Revenue%20Proposal%20.pdf

e) Potential earning from YTL Communication via YES, after subscribes more than 600,000

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