Wedding Gifts, Favours, Bells said...
wat do u think of GENM... how much holdings they had in genting sp? GENM not moving at all... hovering between 2.70-3.00 for very long time liao...
January 19, 2010 3:36:00 AM GMT+08:00
Horse said...
Wedding Gifts,
GENM has been underperformed & it current valuation stood abt 13X PE which is far from 17X PE. I believe soon they will do a catch up. Strong cash flow & stable earning, i hope for a special div coming Feb 2010 since they got ton of cash but usually a fat hope. :(
Many avoiding this guy as there is competitive risk from Resorts Singapore where business might be affected.
Secondly, is the RPTs recently where Genting try to get cash out from GENM.
Thirdly, is the long waited special div never come to reality to unlock cash reserves that cause many disappointment including me. :(
Anyway im still keeping & hope for a turn around.
January 19, 2010 10:03:00 AM GMT+08:00
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I personally feel that GENM is a super laggard & underperformed stock, if one were to trading within the range, it will surely make a lot from this. Furthermore, buying anything at this range should be quite safe, the down side is limited but the up side is quite promising. Assuming the below valuation :-
Net profit for 3Q for year ending 2009 stood at = RM965m
Total EPS for all 3Q = 16.89sen
Assuming,
Expected Net profit for 4Q 2009 to be announced Feb2010 is = RM357m basing on 27% profit of it previous 4Q’s revenue
FY 09 profit = 965 + 357 = RM1.3b
EPS for 4Q = 6.05sen
Total EPS for all 4Q for year ending 2009 = 16.89 + 6.05 = 22.94sen
PE = 2.86/22.94 = 12.47sen
Fair value (basing valuation of 15X FY10 PE) = RM3.44
Did you see the FV !! Couple with GENM net cash pile approximately RM5b there which is continuing to grow, this represent about 0.85sen per share to be given away if they decide to but as I said earlier this is fat hope. If we just lump this amount into the valuation basing on current PE 12.47sen, so just whack the figure in (RM2.86 + 0.85) will give us RM3.71. Wow, see what I get here….!! With such solid cash backing, at current price (RM2.86) should be worth looking. I would expect or hope for a higher dividend payout announcement in the coming 4Q result at least if a special dividend is far too much.
37 comments:
Bought GENM at 2.85
Bought another 20% stake of Genting SP at 1.16 this morning, raising total stake up to 50% at average S1.18.
Bought GENM at 2.84. :)
Bought GENM at 2.82, IGB at 1.80
Continue sold more BsdREITs, Qcapital and UOAREITS, free up more margin line
Swap these margin line to further increase GENM 2.81-2.83 and IGB 1.80-1.82
Bought another 10% stake of Genting SP at $1.14
hng,
wow...back in action again. :)
Today, sold off all UOAREITs and Qcapital at 1.32 and 1.05, respectively. Sold partial BsdREITs at 1.37; all in all today alone manage to realize about 45k, all from REITs. :D)
REITs stocks
1. ARREITs 41.5%
2. BsdREITS 40%
5. TowerREITs 18%
Trading stock
1. IGB 60% (average price : 1.835)
2. GENM 50% (averga price: 2.815)
This afternoon also bought maximum of remaining 50% capital on Genting SP at $1.10; raising total 100% stake at average $1.14
Wow..Congrat !!!! :)
Hi Horse,
In between GenM and GenSP, which would you recommend for holding more? It seems like both of these stock are in your portfolio too.. Mind to share your thought on these 2 counters?
Sold off all GENM at 2.84; realize marginal T+1 profit
Wow lau, market continue to slump, down more than 15pts already....
Bought IOIcorp at 5.21; CIMB at 12.72
hi freak,
Yes, i hold both GenM & GSP. Of the 2 i hold most of GSP.
Take a look of today's news GSP has recorded full occupancy of the 4 hotels till april. The response is just overwelming. Just imagine what happen when themepark & casino open. All this is future earning which mean at 1.12 GSP is a gem. My target price S$2.00 in 3 years time, so i'm holding it longterm.
As for GenM, for it to go up above RM3 should be of no problem as mentioned i'm expecting a better div coming this 4Q to be announced in Feb2010, hopefully it does happen else just play within the range should be able to make some money there. See how hng trades on this guy, u will more or less learning something there.
In short just keep both for target price of RM3 & S$2 respectively. Good luck.
Bought back all GENM a 2.82; realize intraday gain :)
Bought Genting at 7.06 and PBBank at 11.68
Bought maximum Genting at 7.07
Regional market start to rebound. Since already used up all availble margin line (bought Genting; Pbbank; CIMB and IOI corp and resell back GENM), its time to wait for market rebound and take profit :)
Sold off all GENM at 2.85, realize even higher T+1 profit. Swap margin line to increase stake in Genting, bought maximum at 7.08
hng,
Your timing is always perfectly accurate. Really admire that. :)
Good trade mate. :)
horse
No one can predict stock direction, but one can increase odds by monitoring demand and supply of share as well as index movement that serva as guide.
As full timer, this is my homework and have to keep learning and experience it. Once, confidence and preceive share may oversold, i'll pour all capital in and swap share and leverage it with even ultramax margin line....Of course some time may burt but i rather not to miss bargain oppurtunity than stay sideline just
Regional market all in positive territory, hopefully bursa can tunaround soon..so that, i can make $$$$$$
Yeah! sold off IOIcorp at 5.31; realize few k intraday profit :)
Freak
I'm totally agree with horse. My portfolio for Singapore stock is fully invested in Genting SP at average cost $1.14. This is my second attempt to invest in Genting SP after sold off and realize about 35% profit on first round.
Although i'm unlike horse intend to hold Genting SP for 3yr longterm, but relatively, my holding on Genting SP can be considered long (week to month)compared to my Msia Portfolio (day-week)
Resorts World Sentosa hotels fully booked
PETALING JAYA: Resorts World Sentosa’s (RWS) four newly opened hotels are booked solid till end of next month, according to the Singapore Business Times (SBT).
The SBT report said the republic’s first integrated resort (IR) revealed on its Facebook fan page last Friday that the four hotels “have reached maximum capacity” until the end of April. In an update post on Saturday, however, it said that it had “managed to free up some rooms” in March and April.
Occupancy rates at RWS’ four hotels soared to over 90% during this past weekend, assistant director for communications Robin Goh was quoted as saying. Both the Festive Hotel and the Hard Rock Hotel Singapore recorded full houses.
SBT said RWS expected to operate at full or near-full capacity during the weekends for the foreseeable future.
“Already, every room during the nine-day period spanning the upcoming Chinese New Year holiday from Feb 13 to 21 has been snapped up by both Singaporeans and overseas guests eager to be among the first in the world to stay at the IR,” the report said.
Collectively, the four hotels – Festive Hotel, Hard Rock Hotel Singapore, Hotel Michael and Crockfords Tower – offer 1,350 rooms and 10 restaurants.
Two other hotels, Equariyus Hotel and Spa Villas, will be launched later this year and add 500 rooms. SBT reported that when the IR’s call centre first opened its hotline on Jan 11, the first three days alone saw some 5,000 room nights booked.
horse & hng,
thanks for the info. Admire the way you guys earning $$. Somehow, i find it very useful for newbie like me. Will keep an eye on GenSP if it dip further.
Just bought back all IOI corp at 5.28
market take a u-turn again. :(
Bought GENTING at RM6.98.
Bought more GSP at 1.04.
Sold off all IOI corp at 5.32; realize intraday gain; sold also BsdREITs at 1.36, ARREITs at 86.5sen and channel all margin line to average down GEnting cost, bought at 6.95-6.96 and bought back all GENM at 2.80-2.81
Update portfolio
REITs stocks
1. ARREITs 27.4%
2. BsdREITS 26.2%
5. TowerREITs 18%
Trading stock
1 Genting 81.7% (aver: 7.02)
2 IGB 60% (average: 1.835)
3 GENM 18.2% (averga: 2.81)
4. CIMB 8.5% (12.72)
5. PBBank 8.3% (11.68)
horse
Apparently, my entry price for Genting SP was at wrong timing and wrong entry price :( ,....These stock go as low as $1.03 today. Nonetheless, will keep these stock for relatively long and wait for turnaround especially once its theme park and casino is opening.
Locally, most of the today stock unable to make profit: CIMB, Pbbank and Genting. Fortunately, manage to make some intraday gain on IOIcorp and GENM.
Portfolio force to sold some more REITs stock to free up more margin line : sold BsdREIts at 1.36 and ARREITs at 86.5, but manage to realize all of these REITs paper profit.
VEry much depend on US tonite, hope US can perform well. Then rebound is possible tomorrow else if it take another 20points dip we are in deep shit. This will likely fall in long battle again because CNY is around the corner, coming 2H of 2010 is world cup, by then stock market will be very slack.
Defensive stock like REITs should be quite safe as dividend can cushion the fall.
GSP's first Q result is very important, if it result is good then we are in the right track to make $$$$ by then. So, 3 to 4 months hold should be quite safe to gain some money there. :)
Sold off all GENM at 2.84.
Sold off all Genting at 7.06-7.09, realize one time transaction loss first
Just bought back all Genting at 7.01, realize handsome intraday profit :D)
Swap margin from GENM to buy IOI at 5.21.
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