Wednesday, March 24, 2010

Dividend-paying companies

Personal Investments - By Ooi Kok Hwa

Despite investing in profit-making companies, a lot of investors have been complaining that they are not getting the desired returns from the companies that they have invested in.

One of the main reasons is that these companies usually pay very low dividends or no dividends to their investors.

Hence, even though these companies make good profits from their businesses, they are not sharing the profits with their minority investors.

Companies that pay good dividends to their investors imply that the major shareholders of these companies are willing to share their wealth with minority investors.

Given that minority investors have no control over these companies, they have only two sources of returns from their investments, namely dividend returns and capital gains.

If the companies refuse to reward their investors with good dividends, then investors need to make sure that they buy low and sell high in order to get capital gains.

Warren Buffett proposes one concept, which is called the one-dollar premise - for every dollar profit that a company makes, it either pays one dollar dividend to its shareholders or if that dollar is being retained, it needs to bring additional one dollar market value.

Companies with good management will always try to maximize the wealth of their investors.

The following table will show the importance of dividends to an investor.

Assuming you have invested in Company A with an average cost of RM15.

Company A generates earnings per share (EPS) of RM1.00 with price-earnings ratio (PER) of 15 times and pay out 80% of its profits as dividends or dividend per share of RM0.80.

Hence, with the purchase price of RM15, the dividend yield (DY) is 5.3%.

We also assume that Company A has a constant PER of 15 times and dividend payout ratio of 80% for the next 20 years.

Annual growth rate of EPS is 8% based on our country’s average nominal GDP growth rate of 8%.

For the first 10-year period, given that our original cost of investment is fixed at RM15, our dividend yield will be getting higher and higher.

For example, first year DY of 5.3% is computed based on DPS of RM0.80 divided by RM15.

And second year DY of 5.8% is calculated based on DPS of RM0.86 (RM0.80 x 1.08) divided by the same original purchase price of RM15.0.

As the company’s businesses continue to grow and generate higher profits, as long as the company practices a fixed dividend payout policy (our example is based on a fixed dividend payout ratio of 80%), investors’ DY will increase.

At Year 10, given that our purchase price remains the same at RM15, with a DPS of RM1.60, our DY is 10.7% (1.60/15.0).

Thus, the average DY for the first 10-year period is 7.7%.

Coupled with the annual capital gain of 8% (the share price has grown by annual growth rate of 8% from RM15 to RM29.99), investors will generate an annual total returns rate of 15.7% (7.7% + 8%)!

If we keep this stock for another 10-year period, our next 10-year annual total return is 24.7% (16.7% + 8%)!

From here, we can see that if we have invested in good companies that always reward their investors with very high dividend payments, our returns will be huge if we hold it long term.

Normally, consumer-based companies and companies that do not need high capital expenditures will be able to reward shareholders with good dividend payments.

Besides, major shareholders must be willing to share their profits with their investors through good dividend payments.

Ooi Kok Hwa is an investment adviser and managing partner of MRR Consulting.

9 comments:

Anonymous said...

Today, add new stock: Chuan, bought at 60-61sen. Increase further stake of keladi, bought at 16-16.5sen. All under second portfolio margin line.

Update portfolio + ultramargin line
1. Keladi 113.2% (cost: 15.7sen)
2. Pharma 63.7% (cost: RM 4.30)
3. PIE 60.8% (cost: RM 4.00)
4. Yilai 8.7% (cost 75sen)

5. Combined total stake of Cresbld and UPA = 1.5%


Second portfolio + margin line
1. TH Plantation 140% (cost: 1.52)
2. Keladi 22.4% (cost: 16.1sen)
3. Chuan 16.2% (cost 60.5sen)
4. TWS 8.2% (cost 3.12)

Anonymous said...

Bought some keladi at 16sen this morning under second portfolio margin line.

Market sideline, perhaps its time to digest recent rally and trying hard to stay above 1300 level.

Anonymous said...

bought more Chuan at 58sen under second portfolio margin line, average down holding cost to 59sen

Anonymous said...

Sold back some Chuan at 59-61sen, realize intraday gain.

horse said...

congrat hng. :)

I hv not accumulate enough of my picked stock, it when up 5% already. :(
Hope it can drop back a bit for me to pick up more.

Anonymous said...

Sold back all today Chuan at averge 60sen, realize all intraday gain, but still retain yesterday stake.

horse
if your pick stock on uptrend, seeing in gradually up from 3% to today 5% is bit uncomforable espcially if already set aside capital to be fully invested on these stock. But, market still yet to correct and on bull mood, your undervalue stock may just get spotted by other investor/fund manager. If confident that your pick still have potential, buy some even if share price already appreciate and wait again to see whether or not the trend really confirm by observing its volume, so that don't miss boat. Typical example is of your previous call on kfima and yilai

Update portfolio + ultramargin line
1. Keladi 113.2% (cost: 15.7sen)
2. Pharma 63.7% (cost: RM 4.30)
3. PIE 60.8% (cost: RM 4.00)
4. Yilai 8.7% (cost 75sen)

5. Combined total stake of Cresbld and UPA = 1.5%


Second portfolio + margin line
1. TH Plantation 140% (cost: 1.52)
2. Keladi 25.6% (cost: 16.1sen)
3. Chuan 16.2% (cost 60.5sen)
4. TWS 8.2% (cost 3.12)

horse said...

already bought some but the portion not big enough. Trading volume is still relatively small, will try to enter more if it retreated else just let it be.

hng, you probably can enlighten ccdev's queries in my chatbox there by posting here. What is your picking criterias ? he is interested to know, of course if u think tis is yr trade secret. Please ignore.

ccdev said...

hng, no need to write long letter but if you free to chat now n then, or just drop hint in comment box like you did earlier for horse. Now i have 'rojak' info about you and horse. still trying to picture the approach (earnings come first? div come first? how does mkt conditions and mkt volume affect buy/sell choice?) but i am also much curious about how you do your swing trade (your buy price usually lower of the price range). as for trade secret, i'm cannot even guarantee i can follow what you say because my knowledge/experience level may be few level below yours. but what u can share will be appreciated.

nice to talk some stock stuff too which is different from the "ehh, this one i hear can buy..." market talk.

Anonymous said...

ccdev

Trading stock really need own experience, once you have experience and learn from mistake, you'll be able to develop your own investment plan that suit your own risk profile.

Another approach is buy some first and learn latter if no very sure and then gain experience gradually from day to day share movement and observe supply and demand as well as market barometer.

I've been very transparent in my investment journey and posted my everyday stock portfolio, you can treat it as guide if you wan to follow.

About swing trade, as full time trader, I'm observing every second market movement, if feel time is right, just spare some capital to trade. there is no 100% sure that trade will be profitable, if stock on downtrend again, i'll just need to cut loss as previous done on Genting.

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