Take a simple look at Lonbisc. A company main business on manufacturing and marketing cakes and snack food.
Use to be classified under one of the high dividend yielding stock in my list but not anymore since year 2008. Recently Lonbisc has just been given 3% TE dividend, that represent a 3% DY based on current price. EPS has step up further in 1H to 9.16sen inline with the grow on revenue for 1H where a 20% increase in tandem.
Assuming, the current momentum stay on, we would expect the EPS to reach 23.58sen for the 2 remaining Q. That will represent a PE of 4.45sen. If the company resume it dividend payout ratio of about 50%, then a minimum 10sen dividend is possible in future.
For a counter to trade in EPS of 23.58sen (in future) and having a strong NTA of RM2, that is 50% discount there basing current price. So my simple way of conservative calculation of fair value for this counter, should be around 5 X 23sen = 1.15.
This could turn out to be a gem stock. At current RM1.04 should be worth buying.
28 comments:
Today, bought some keladi at 16-16.5sen under second portfolio margin line. Expect keladi to announce Q4 result cum propose dividend by these wk (today after 5pm) or by end of this month (31-3-10).
horse, ccdev, any one of you buying these counter ?
Update portfolio + ultramargin line
1. Keladi 113.2% (cost: 15.7sen)
2. Pharma 63.7% (cost: RM 4.30)
3. PIE 60.8% (cost: RM 4.00)
4. Yilai 8.7% (cost 75sen)
5. Combined total stake of Cresbld and UPA = 1.5%
Second portfolio + margin line
1. TH Plantation 140% (cost: 1.52)
2. Keladi 28.2% (cost: 16.2sen)
3. Chuan 16.2% (cost 60.5sen)
4. TWS 8.2% (cost 3.12)
Im still in accumulate stage on the counter mentioned. Today gone up another 3.8%. :(
Have not buy into Keladi yet. May consider once i have done so for above but by time already too late i think. haha.
Just can't concentrate too many. Will let it be, if boat sailed.
horse
Your picks seem everyday gone up; 3%, another 5%, then today another 3.8%, if increment is compounded, your pick must gone up more than 12% from initial price. Wah! if fully invested, your capital stand to increase by 10% by now.
Also wish to congratulate on your Citibank, have gone up to US4.27, in 10% paper profit already. Well done!
Hi everyone,
Long time didn't drop a msg here. Hng, keladi just annouce the dividend yesterday. Sad to say that it did not maintian last year payout. Will u b keeping till the dividend or selling it?
Steve
Keladi announce lower than expected dividend of 1sen, but still yield 6%. Will see market condition first before making decision.
Just sold my Tenaga at 8.05 for paper profit. :)
Sold partial keladi of my own portfolio at 16-16.5sen, realize marginal profit
Sold off all TWS at 3.25-3.28 under second portfolio; realize all paper profit
Update portfolio + ultramargin line
1. Keladi 78.4% (cost: 15.7sen)
2. Pharma 63.7% (cost: RM 4.30)
3. PIE 60.8% (cost: RM 4.00)
4. Yilai 8.7% (cost 75sen)
5. Combined total stake of Cresbld and UPA = 1.5%
Second portfolio + margin line
1. TH Plantation 140% (cost: 1.52)
2. Keladi 28.2% (cost: 16.2sen)
3. Chuan 16.2% (cost 60.5sen)
Add another new stock into own portfolio, bought Tomei at 57.5sen this morning
Sold some of Genm at 2.87. :)
hng,
good choice on Tomei. This one in my radar list. :)
I believe Tomei share bashed down by its recent private placement 10% at 50sen and these heavy sell off should be ease off soon once profit taking subside. Tomei is undervalue stock, trading <5x PE, expect upcoming dividend of 3-4sen, yield 5-6%.
Bought LCTH at 33.5sen
Bought more Tomei at 54.5-55sen, to average down holding cost to 55.5sen
Today also sold some keladi at 16sen to further cut stake, realize just marginal gain.
Update portfolio + ultramargin line
1. Keladi 70% (cost: 15.7sen)
2. Pharma 63.7% (cost: RM 4.30)
3. PIE 60.8% (cost: RM 4.00)
4. Tomei 12% 9cost 55.5sen)
4. Yilai 8.7% (cost 75sen)
5. LCTH 8.1% (cost 33.5sen)
5. Combined total stake of Cresbld and UPA = 1.5%
Second portfolio + margin line
1. TH Plantation 140% (cost: 1.52)
2. Keladi 28.2% (cost: 16.2sen)
3. Chuan 16.2% (cost 60.5sen)
Bought back GENM at 2.84 to gain intraday instead. :)
Just received IOI dividend. :)
Bought more Tomei at 55-55.5sen, volume has ease off selling pressure. Time to accumulating theses value stocks.
wow, that counter fly, almost 20% since i first bought. :(
Too bad just a small some with me. Look like no chance of getting more, will blog it up when i have time.
hng,
you say "Bought more Tomei at 55-55.5sen, volume has ease off selling pressure.", how do you make this kind of analysis based on vol? i look at the vol around 22 n 23rd march, also taper off already, especially 23rd price then was about 10% off high. but then it continue to drop somemore.
ccdev
I make judgment because Tomei share should find good support at 55sen or at least above 50sen. Recent surge in volume could be due to its private placement of 10% at 50sen.
Furthermore, Tomei is value buy stock based on PE<5x; NTA: 1.00; net yield: 5%. Downside limited
bought UPA at 1.40
Update portfolio + ultramargin line
1. Keladi 68% (cost: 15.7sen)
2. Pharma 63.7% (cost: RM 4.30)
3. PIE 60.8% (cost: RM 4.00)
4. Tomei 20% (cost 55.5sen)
4. Yilai 8.7% (cost 75sen)
5. LCTH 8.1% (cost 33.5sen)
6. UPA 8.2% (cost 1.40)
7. Cresbld 0.8% (cost 76sen)
Second portfolio + margin line
1. TH Plantation 140% (cost: 1.52)
2. Keladi 28.2% (cost: 16.2sen)
3. Chuan 16.2% (cost 60.5sen)
thks hng, wanted to see how your logical mind works. private placement 50c, eps 14c+, div maybe around 3c in may.
private placement play. why not consider cocoland. they've announced the price fixing at 1.35. so the listing of the new shares should be sometime next week. currently at 1.43.
the placees has the intention to push the price up higher so that they may dispose it later. in any event, they will not dispose at less than 1.35.
bought ultramax TH plant at 1.50 under second portfolio margin line
London Biscuits' earnings is fantastic no doubt. Its cash flows from operations is also highly commendable. Hence it appears that with the share price of RM1.16 as at 9th April 2010, it is a good investment. However, a closer scrutiny of its balance sheet reveals a disturbing fact. Its liabilities, both current as well as long-term are huge in relation to its current and non-current assets. What are your views on this?
KC,
Your concern is valid there about the huge liability. For a healthy company to growth & expand, it is a trade off to have liability, but again this define into current & longterm, if u have notice generally, longterm liability is greater or higher. So, for a growing company, dealing with longterm debt is normal but not enormous current debt, bcoz, that will affect the overall operation of the company in term of cashflow and debt paying.
If they can finance the debt in every Q with surplus then it is still profit and operational. SOme how to kill the debt one shot, instead run down by the nature of business, many company will raise fund through right issue. Judging the low base of LONBISC, RI is the more appropriate way. One thing good abt LONBISC is, it has a good NTA value, this somehow will provide confident for one to subscribe if this is truely happen.
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