Company news really drive people crazy, a minute was rated "SELL" and the next minute can turn 180 degree to 'OverWeight". What can you expect from this overnight turn ?? Up or down ?? One suggestion from me, don't bother. What the hack, just keep till the cow come home........toto, hng, & KC are you all agree ??
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Genting Malaysia Bhd, the country’s sole casino operator, rose the most in three weeks in Kuala Lumpur trading after Morgan Stanley initiated coverage of the stock with an “overweight” call and RM3.05 share forecast.
The stock rose 1.1 per cent to RM2.69 at 9:05 a.m. local time, set for its biggest gain since June 18. -- Bloomberg
9 comments:
If one follows the market calls everytime an "analyst" barks, one is no better than a donkey being pulled right,left and center. I do my own judgements, if I think, yes "think", the price is right for me to sell, I sell. And walk away from the market and don't let the bull runs off "hurt" your ego. The other reason I sell is when I need some cash. That necessity I got recently and I sold off all my Genting last week 9/7/2010 at 7.46. May be I'll regret if the market price runs up to 8.00 or 9.00. But at KLCI 1340 you can't be far wrong the downside risk is far greater than the upside gain. Again, that's my 2 sens opinion.
Analysts normally have more information about companies than others. They obtain advance information and insight of companies from managers and do a lot more research. Well that is their rice bowl. However, there always arise the conflict of interest in the investment bank concerned whereby the analysts are always succumbed to pressure into always having to write favorable report about a company which they have dealing with. Enron in 2001 was one of the classic case which no analyst dared to write a true negative report about the predicament Enron was in, fearing of losing millions of fees from Enron. Many analysts very often just follow the tide. How dare they write a sell report when the share keep on going up? They just change their recommendation from sell to buy when it happens just to avoid being branded a fool. In short, there is no integrity and professionalism. For an interesting reading, read the book, 'Wall Street Meat' by Andy Kessler. I believe the other 'culprit' who recommend buy and one day later sell is the technical analyst, looking at the chart on historical price and volume and decide on the calls. In summary, I do not just ignore the reports because analysts are supposed to have more information than us but I also will not take their advice on face value. I will do my own analysis and check the basis of their recommendation is correct or not. (sigh) I still have not made a lot of money yet though.
elmo & KC,
i believe all of us came from a long way in term of investment in stock. i myself came from a speculator more than a decade back and got myself burn badly then, we all learn from mistake & hope not to repeat the same silly mistake again, that make me a longterm and dividend player now. Is the experience change people & people learn from mistake, shape ourselves better in time of bullish & bearish market. We adapt to the market & grow wiser along with the market, so experience really count. Market force us to do our own analysis, learn to be patient and invest wisely.
Both of you share the same common point where own decision and analysis is upmost important. Invest in yourself is what we ought to do and trust nobody or hearsay except your own decision. Once this is in placed & sharpen the skill that possess in you then making money is just that simple in stock market.
One most important factor people must learn is avoid and never touch loss making companies, coz this can really kill. Just this simple rule you will never wrong badly even if you do.
Quote K C ..."I still have not made a lot of money yet though."
--a lot of money. what do you mean by a lot of money. How many of us here have? How much is a lot? haha. Never mind that. We are all here to make money. Looking at KLCI at 1341 (today's closing)I bet all of us here if we got in early have make some money. Some less some more. Some in between. I set my target to get out when it touches 1450 but have to get out on some counters when I desperately needs some cash. I honestly don't trust analysts as you said. They are paid to write. What do you expect?
Horse. Greetings. In the years 2007-2008, I tried my hands on speculation. Honestly I made some money, before that I just buy and keep. Dividend stocks, some makes money some loose. PBBank makes may day. Looking back, I think it's the bull market that speculation makes money 2, the amoount made isn't very much. The bank makes even more! 3. It's tiring stressful but you get the kick out of it. There after I just buy and keep again...plan to clear everything after KLCI 1450 or more! Still waiting.
in fact i make when i speculate but that was super bull then, i lose it back and even double my loses when the greed get over me, a bear turn caught me to vomit back and even more... :(
Horse,
yea, I too feel it's in the bull markets that one can makes money from speculation.
BUT if during the bull market one were to buy and keep. The return would be far higher.
Now it's during the bear markets how are we to play the ballgame?
elmo,
I agree with you and horse that one can only make money in a bull market and I also agree with you that if one is to buy and hold in a bull market, he will also make more. In a bear market, I believe more than 90% of retail investors lose money. The simple and straight forward explanation is the transaction costs involved. Let's share some opinion here. You said it is a bear market now, why do you say so? As how to play the ball game whether it is in the bull or bear market, here are my thoughts:
1) Look for economic moats
2) Exploit Mr. Market in pricing inefficiency due to herd emotion
3) Buy at reasonable price
4) Insist on margin of safety
5) Know your limits
6) Invest only in companies with credible management
7) Avoid quick flipping strategies
8) Learn, read, study, share investment knowledge.
9) Listen to rumours but confirm and satisfy yourself completely based on 8 above before taking actions.
10) There is no free lunch, no short cut to success.
Cheers
hi guys! horse, you say last time you speculator kena burn. but now with your more advanced knowledge and experience, have you considered short term trading? not that i want to play devil, since you are a secure long term /dividend player but you are more matured now and can better control the risk factors involved.
and yeah, i also have bitter experience with analyst report. bought stock when analyst say is the stock is "shooting star" (yes, he actually put that as the title) but i forgot that 'shooting star' can shoot downward also. cialak! i bet half the time they are 'controlled' reports, the other half is the analyst hoping they don't get it too far wrong (so don't look like too much of a fool). and no doubt they have more 'info' than us, but how much of that info is actually usefull, i don't know. plus, they also cannot buy the kuci-rat stocks (before it become big) like us retailers.
Hi KC,
sorry I did not make it clear. I don't mean it's bear market now. Looking at history, KLCI at 1340 is about to peak. We are now playing with fire. The index will not go up forever. May be it will peak at 1450; may be 1550; or may even be 1700. It's anyone's guess. But if it were to buy and keep. I won't play it this way now. In fact I am "disposing" along the way. But greed got me again. I am still holding on to some of the stocks which I bought during the low tide and hold for some 2 yrs now. Makes money BUT want to make more. that's why still keeping. If any I am now playing a bit of trading in one or two counters e.g. BJTOTO in-and-out. As a whole we are still on the bull side of the market. If not mistaken every big bull is going to end up with an even bigger bear. So I'll still stick to my plan. Watch out.
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