Wednesday, May 9, 2012

YTLPOWER-WB





1. Bought in more YTLPOWER-WB today at 0.47 & 0.475 respectively. Bought UOAREIT as well at RM1.37 but only partially matched but i wonder why isn't it show up in above all done orders. :( 

2. Some insight sharing from our cyber friend hng on YTLPOWER-WB...
horse

Have you buy YTL Power-WB at 48.5sen now? I'm hold back to buy more on YTLPower-WB now as its mother share likely to test its all year low of 1.63, with strong support at 1.60. 

In short term, YTLPower still engage trouble surrounding its PPA issue, with incoming GE, if PR takeover, PPA deal may restructure to reduce gas subsidy and re-set open tender for new PPA.

On the other hand, in medium to long term, privatization of this group by its parent is still on course. There is already clear signal from MD, fransic Yeoh that if YTL corp have nothing attractive assets to buy, it will buyout its subsidiary. By through share exchange, YTL corp need no single sen to take over all its subsidiary and enjoy full control over its subsidiary cash reserve, which in turn use these cash to continue its share buyback on its own to support enlarge YTL corp, and ultimately distribute share dividend in species to all YTL corp shareholder, which Yeoh family will entitle to most, a direct beneficial owner of YTL corp. 

The more YTL power suffer depress in share price, the more likelihood YTL corp will take over via share exchange to consolidate all under parent group. The rationale is simple, advice YTL Power share swap to YTL corp as it have more diversified earning derived from cement, REITs, property, KLIA transit, construction etc instead of relying just concessionaire ( power, water) and highly competitive telco as well as expected huge capex on new venture into oil and gas industry.

Changing government alone already have adverse implication to those government/UMMO/political dependent concessionaire.

The knee jerk impact will be immediate while material change in concessionaire deal will again laggard stock performance. Nevertheless, crisis mean golden chance for opportunist person like Fransic Yeoh, to take over YTL Power via share exchange...

3. The above sharing only serve as an information and speculation. It does not translate to a BUY or SELL call. As usual buy sell totally at your own risk.

4. hng, good sharing on above. I buy the idea of share exchange as the total beneficial will be YTL Corp itself. Let's see what it will turn out to be, given some time. We will wait and see on this interesting speculation, see how Francis is playing his game. Close watch on this. GOOD LUCK !!

39 comments:

Teng said...

Hng

Congratulation on yr Tambun-OR.I of course made small money

hng said...

Teng

I still hold back to sell as i think Tambun-OR still worth at least more than 10sen, targetred to reap at least 30% profit on Tambun-OR alone.

hng said...

Teng

If Tambun-OR can't reach my target price on Monday, last day of the trading, I prepared to subscribe all Tambun-OR at 50sen, to entitle both warrant and dividend and boosting Tambun to top holding holding in the portfolio.

hng said...

Bought YTL Power-WB at 47sen, since YTL Power share look like rebounding.

hng said...

Bought YTL Power-WB at 47sen, since YTL Power share look like rebounding.

Teng said...

Hng

Do you expect Tambun's mother share under selling pressure once all right issues are listed?Maybe this offer opportunity to buy

Teng said...

Hng

I q YTLPower-WB at 46.5 but cancel and q 47 now

hng said...

Teng

Its normal for mother under selling pressure once right and warrant are listed. But the condition is temporary, especially its dividend of 3.8sen will be going to declared after the listing of right share.

In addition, Tambun upcoming Q1 result should be at least in par with previous Q4 (4.1sen), as tambun will recognized progress billing of its unbilled sale this year

hng said...

Bought more Tambun at 52.5sen

hng said...

Bought more YTL Power-WB at 47sen, Lets see it can follow its mother share rebounding today.

Teng said...

Hng

I hold too much YTLPower-WB now. Howver,will monitor if want to buy more

Teng said...

YTLPower back to square. 2 transaction of abt 5k lots each done at 1.68 and 1.67. YTLCorp now dump YTLPower and not warrant?

hng said...

Sold off UOA dev at 1.56 (cost at 1.49) realize contra gain.

hng said...

Too bad, YTL Power-WB continue sliding....But as point out earlier, if hold longer term, should be safe. Nonetheless, in short term, dumping from YTL corp will still continue...

Teng said...

Hng

Congratulation on yr UOADev. I still keep some at 1.54 cost( I actually sold at 1.56 n bought back 1.54 for contra gains)

YTLPower-Wb has another 6 yrs to go. So I am not too worried.

horse said...

hi hng & Teng,

Fail to sell my YTLPower-WB at 0.48. I should have placed it at 0.475 to make small gain. :(

See how they throw out both YTLPower & WB at last minute. :(

I think further slide would be expected. :(

hng - your sharing on YTL takeover YTLPower may come true judging the way YTL is selling the share. Reducing from 91% to 88% now. :(

horse said...

I am still keeping the bulk of my UOADEV. :)

Hope to break 1.60 tomorrow. I expect more upside when the agm draw nearer.

horse said...

hng,

I will try very small on Tambun-OR on Monday. Hope to get some then. Would exercise the right and get the free warrant. :)

Good Luck guy !! Let's make profit altogether. :)

horse said...

Noticed YTLPower-WB is heavy traded today and very much on the versold position. Hope strong rebound is on its way. :)

hng said...

horse

YTL corp control YTL Power 45.3% only, but if take into account the Yeoh Family stake, together control 55.7% of YTL Power.

On the other hand, YTL corp control 85.3% YTL Power-WB and together with Yeoh Family, control as much as 92.9%. At the moment, the selling pressure come from combined stake of Yeoh and YTL corp which already reduce stake from 92.9% to current 84.8%.

If YTL corp need more cash, the proper way will be selling YTL-Power WB as it won't affect its controlling status and can raise as much as 50m cash from selling 8.12% stake at average price of 55sen.

The maximum allowable for YTL corp to sell YTL Power-WB is another 9.8%, reducing its stake to 75% in order to retain majority stake in YTL power of 50%, if all its WB converted.

Teng said...

In mth of May,YTLCorp bought back its share,average 3-7Million share costing them up to RM10million.

hng said...

Sold off all YTL Power-WB at 46-46.5sen, realize contra loss

Sold partial Tambun-OR at 9sen, realize handsome contra gain

Teng said...

Hng

Just arrived my home town.Seems YTLPower-Wb will see weakness due to continued selling by parents.

Congratulation on your Tambun-OR

hng said...

Teng

I've personally called up YTL corp, according to person in charge, the selling YTL Power-WB is come from their board director.

As to why they are selling at such low price and at what extent, the person said they are not aware but have to follow instruction and according they point up that YTL Power-WB are carry at just 11 sen per warrant, which translate to windfall gain of 300-400%

Teng said...

Hng

According to Bursa filing,selling is from YTLCorp( listed company) and not from Francis's family owned private company.

I am now worried about YTLPower and WB. Few minutes ago WB was done at 45cts. Selling pressure not only on WB,YTLPower also the target

hng said...

Teng

This is my second times entrapped by YTL Power-WB. But the odds still in my favor 3 win: 2 loss. In short, it is uphill task for minority to win over major shareholder. Must admit, they have upper hand, never try to flight.

Lets get rid of YTL Power-WB on my radar screen for time being as there is other more attractive stock around in the market.

Teng said...

YTLCorp sold 3million each day for May8-10 period

horse said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
horse said...

hng,

I wonder which dept do you call in ytl to get infor with regards to ytlpwr-wb ??

horse said...

hng,

Thanks for the infor sharing. :)

In fact i think their cost on WB is 10sen instead.

Very crucial for ytlpower to stay above 1.60 else it will be heading south further. :(

No trading for me today.

hng said...

Horse

I've initially called up YTL corp corporate affair, after which she intend to pass my line to Tan Sri special assistant, but the person refuse to further comment and disclosed further detail. That all information what i gather.

hng said...

Below is one of the cyberfriend, justicepao on YTL Power-WB estimation

YTL corp holds ytlp = 45.22%

YTL corp+Francis also hold ytlp-wb = 84% = 989295557 (floating in market is 187497724 = 16%)

ytlp total share issued = 7326603729 + 1176793281(WB) = 8503397010

ytlp-wb portion constitute to ytlp is = 1176793281/8503397010 * 100 = 13.8%

ytl corp holds 45.22% of ytlp = 45.22% X 7326603729 = 3313090206
ytl portion constitute to ytlp is = 3313090206/8503397010 * 100 = 38.96%

ytl total holdings of ytlp = 13.8% + 38.96% = 52.76%

in order to continue stay majority, e.g ytl just need to reduce to 50.1% holdings by selling away ytlp-wb aka ytlp to raise "cash for share buyback of ytl"(i am speculating here). ytl needs to reduce (52.76% - 50.1% = 2.66%) more to do that.

--> 2.66% X 8503397010 = 226190360
--> 226190360/989295557 X 100 = 22.86%

which mean ytl still can dispose another 22.86% of the 84% currently already own to about = 84% - 22.86% = 61.14%

say ytl dispose 22.86% at an average price of 0.40 of wb, which mean ytl can raise = 400 X 226190360/1000 = 90m to use it for share buyback on ytl (again speculate here)
bear in mind earlier, ytl already reduce from 93% to 84%, this easily give ytl another = 47m to 50m

so, to control ytlp like they did it for ytlcement, they might jet up ytl and continue pressure ytlp (speculate only)

base on above i think ytlp still have more room to go south.

horse said...

wow, very detail sharing and speculation. :)
Good job from justicepao. I do hope the speculation is wrong else many YTLPower fans will suffer. :(
I should move away from YTLPower for now to be on the save side. Since not very sure what the game that they are playing, we follower just sing to the tune.

hng said...

Bought UOA dev at 1.50

hng said...

Sold another portion of Tambun-OR at 8.5sen, realize contra gain. I've opt to subscribe remaining stake of Tambun-OR into right share at 50sen, to entitle for its free warrant and dividend

hng said...

As expected, both YTL Power and TTL Power-WB continue heading south. With support level at 1.60, both YTL Power and its WB remain fragile if selling pressure persist from YTL corp. These condition may spread to the other subsidary YTL land.

Very unfair trading to minority shareholder as YTL corp continue to realize their paper profit from -WB (cost at just 11sen), all other become loser.

I'm afraid if YTL corp continue selldown YTL Power WB and manipulate YTL Power price to as low as 1.21, which effectively translate to zero value to WB, avoiding dilution effect and fund raising from YTL corp to convert its stake in WB to mother share.

hng said...

YTL Power now testing its strong support level at 1.60, if violated, selldown will exacerbate.

Teng said...

No trading for me today as I am out all day

hng said...

YTL Power reached as low as 1.55, broke its strong support level at 1.60, closed at 1.58. If can't rebound to soon to stay above 1.60 in next few day, then, heading further south ahead

Bought more UOA dev at 1.47

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