Thursday, August 2, 2012

The True Value of OSKPROP-OR



1. OSKPROP - Buying 4 batches, hope to get a quick profit here. ^^

2. OSKPROP-OR - Assuming OR is fully exercised, what is the true value of OR ? One Right comes with 2 Bonus Issue and free 3 Warrants. Estimated actual value of OR :-

1 Right = 0.98
2 Bonus Issue = 0.98 x 2 = 1.96
3 Warrants = 0.98 x 25% x 3 = 0.735 (* as hng pointed out that warrant a least 30% premium but i just quoted 25% here)

Actual value of OR = 0.98 + 1.96 + 0.735 - 1 = RM2.675

Will try to apply excess units. hng, may i know what is the chances of getting excess units ?

3. YTLP-WB - Something fishy on this ? Big buying toward last minute....

4. MSM - Still keeping.

5. Watch list - OSKPROP-OR, MSM, YTLP-WB, YTL

6. Good luck.

82 comments:

hng said...

horse

I don't think there will be offer for excess application as OSK prop stand to lose out 2 extra bonus share for every 1 excess. This is different from other corporate exercise involve warrant with right share. whereby the excess application will be take into consideration, as warrant have no immediate dilution and is main for future fund raising.

hng said...

horse

In the OSK latest right issue prospectus, it shown that its flagship Mega project in Cyberjaya Pan'gaea, phase I (launched in April), Paragon, two towers, 16 and 22 storey consist of 196 SOFO and 49 boutique retail office have SOLD OUT (previous was 70% take up)

The registration list for its next phase II (planned to launched Q4), 4 tower, 1446 unit, service apartment have received total of 4200 interest buyer.

hng said...

horse


I'm concentrating on OSK property-OR as it offer greater upside potential based on sum of part as shown in your blog.

hng said...

horse

I'm sold off all MSM in order to free up more margin line for OSK property-OR and realize quick contra profit.

horse said...

Thanks hng for the sharing.

In that case i must grab from the market then.

Will take in some tomorrow hopefully.

horse said...

I am planning to sell my MSM as well tomorrow. Hope to get higher price. ^^

Will free up more cash for oskprop-OR. :)

Good Luck mate. !!

Teng said...

Hng/Horse

Today I missed to trade OSKProp even I managed to get some at 2.48

YTLPower-WB-Last minute buy again?I still keep some bought last week

Tomorrow may buy OSKProp or sell OSKProp and switch to OR

Teng said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
hng said...

Bought WCT-WB at 26.5sen

Teng said...

Bought WCT-WB at 26.5,sold 27 for intraday gains

Try to grab more OSKProp-OR but sell volume is small.Guess has to buy sedikit demi sedikit,lama lama jadi bukit

Teng said...

Bought YTLPower-WB at 58.5

Teng said...

Hng

Your WCT-WB is giving free lunch today

Teng said...

Bought YTL 1.77

hng said...

It is interesting to note that WCT-WB warrant price response exaggerate for every movement of its underlying share, WCT. The 2-3 sen down from WCT also follow by its WB, but in turn of percentage, WCT only down by <1%, while WB down >10%. Nonetheless, it is understandable as WB gearing is almost 10x of its underlying share, 27 sen vs. RM 2.45

I do acknowledge that the warrant expire in 7 month time, due Apr 2013, the premium now is about 13%, exercise price at 2.45. The warrant was issue back in 2008, issue at cost 25sen on 1 for 5 underlying share.

Since there is close relationship between warrant and underlying share, any good news for WCT will be follow by its warrant now.

WCT is expect to announce its Q2 result by middle of these month, which will come with interim dividend payout of at least 5sen. WCT also scheduled to have EGM on 14 of these month to conclude deal for acquisition landbank in OUG for total 450m. These piece of land have GDV more than 4b, situated in mature area, next before Endah parade along KESAS.

Currently WCT already secure more than 1b job, namely HQ for MITI, Medical center in Sabah, widening Plus highway, Vale projects. and is targeting to secure addition 1b by end of these year. This is sharp contras compared to last year, whereby WCT only manage to secure 187m.

In turn of WCT revenue breakdown, infra and construction still contribute more than 70%, follow by property development and property investment. However, the ratio going to change soon, as WCT already embark more aggressive in property development, especially high end , high rise development. Its first venture in Iskandar, IMedin, GDV 700m received take up rate 90%. Its upcoming EGM, if approve, will allow WCT venture outside klang to KL (OUG), plan to build integrated high rise condo + SOFO + mall + hotel

WCT also building up its property investment namely exiting Aeon Bukit Tinggi + 1st 4 star Premier Hotel, and newly open Paradigm Mall (91% occupied) + 2rd premier Hotel in kelana Jaya. The paradigm will be wholly manage by WCT itself rather than lease out like Aeon Bukit Tinggi, which could command higher earning. By next year, another mall, Gateway in KLIA2 will be ready. All in all, these property investment will at least PAT 40m pa onwards. WCT also build up its landbank in Rawang, replicate its success in Bukit Tinggi Township in klang

WCT ultimate aim is to diversify its earning based into more sustainable, breaking into 45% infra/construction: 30% property development: 25% property investment

Teng said...

Hng

Good write up on WCT

My cousin bought Semi D at Bt Tinggi many many years ago.He paid <500K for BIG landed semi D

hng said...

As previous highlight in these blog, that i have bad experience in warrant investing on MTD-WA last 10year ago, which cause me loss almost all capital due to expire date, even at slightly in money as MTD at that only at 1 sen higher of its exercise price.

Will history repeat itself on me !!?? I really wish to try again, as Chinese proverb said, 'we have to stand out from where we fall'.

With additional 10year trading experience + full time online trading + better trading skill + enlarge capital base = success

Teng said...

WCT is flat now. WB will also back to 29cents?

Good luck Hng. Add oil

hng said...

Teng

The fate of WCT-WB all rely on WCT itself, the critical point is that WCT must stay above 2.45, which is warrant conversion price and Warrant should have strong support at 25sen, which is their original cost.

Currently WCT still struggling to break and stayed above RM 2.50 resistance level, which then could signal further upside to 2.80 and 3.00. It have many attempt though and yet unable to firmly stay above these level.

I expecting its upcoming Q2 result to show much better result + dividend + latest news from MD after EGM on 14 Aug to provide much need catalyst to spur share price.

Again due to close relationship between WB and underlying share, investor could expect multiple 10% increment for evry 1% upside from WCT.

hng said...

Teng

What happen to YTL power and WB, seem yummy to me.

However almost all my already tight up with my 3 major holding OSK property-OR, WCT-WB and Ireka and other like AnnJoo and KSL-WA

Teng said...

Hng

My Maybank portal show exercise is 2.50.

Teng said...

Hng

WCT-WB warrant is strong. I enter to sell immediately after matched.Within minutes,my sell also matched

hng said...

Teng

Sorry, my mistake, WCT warra t exercise is at 2.50. Thanks for correction

hng said...

Teng

As point close relation between WCT warrant and WCT, there will market manipulated, whom purposely press down WCT to collect its warrant at cheaper price. In the end, they stand to gain massive profit in turn of percentage between loss 1% in WCT, gain 10% in WCT warrant

hng said...

Teng

Have already swap your OSK property to OSK property-OR, like what you did on Amfirst? This is cheaper alternative to continue exposure in OSK property.

However, after the ease of trading of OR, share price normally will rebound back.

hng said...

Teng


WCT swing upwards, lets hope my prediction will materialize, reaping up handsome profit on it

hng said...

WCT at 2.50 critical marks, its warrant still laggard behind, waiting for convincing breakout of its underlying share

Teng said...

Hng

OSKProperty-Not yet.OSKProp share is under mild selling pressure.Still hope to buy OR today or next few days

WCT-Once mother stay >2.50,WB should be well supported.Very good timing for you. My buy timing is perfect but not sell.Anyway good enough for lunch today

hng said...

OSK property-OR start to pick up, lets hope its could reflect its intrinsic value soon

Teng said...

With OR up and mother flat,guess have to keep status quo and not doing switching

hng said...

For OSK property-OR to truly reflect its value, Market market need to offer support and absorb selling pressure on underlying share, OSK property. the effect is multiplier, as OR entitle additional 2 bonus and right subscription at 1.00 same as its warrant have conversion of 1.00

hng said...

Teng

There is opportunity to buyback OSK property the day before the ease of trading of its OR. I think it will rebound back soon after OR ease of trading. Like what experience in MSM and Amfirst

Teng said...

Hng

Good info.Will keep track on OSKProp on day before OR cease trading

hng said...

OSK property OR at 2.60, very to horse intrinsic value

Teng said...

OSKProp OR cross 2.60

hng said...

Buying spree is strong for WCT, but not on its WB !? Guess, investor still scary away for sharp selldown just now and yesterday.

ck5354 said...

wtk 1.18 sipeh attractive but money lock in ytl alamak.

Teng said...

CK

I was tempted to buy WTK at 118 ( B117 S 118) but dare not commit too much as I bought YTL this morning

ck5354 said...

need to open a new account in HLE cash upfront account which charge only 0.1 in order to trade.

Currently using osk which charge me 0.42.

anyone have better rate?

hng said...

ck5254

Can try ECM Libra, cash upfront charge only 0.01%. But there are term and condition. However, it suit for buy and hold investor rather than trading purpose. For more info, call them to check it up.

hng said...

Teng

I queue some WTK at 1.17

hng said...

ck5453

What price you tight on YTL ? If wanna to get free lunch from Francis Yeoh, be prepare to run whatsoever at last min share buyback.

The fact that, YTL don't aggressive support share price could be due to weak technical chart and /or could have intention to share similar share price level with YTL power, privatized could be on card via share swap??!

Derick said...

Hng/ Teng,

Good info for OSK prop. This morning managed to grap Osk prop - OR at 2.47.��

hng said...

Derick

Welcome to join OSK property club here :).

ck5354 said...

hng,

I tight with 1.80, need to 1.82 only break even with 0.42%.

Thanks for your suggestion.

Really learnt a lot and appreciate it.

Teng said...

CK

Maybank cash account also 0.1%,min RM8.So trading counter like YTL( 1.80~),break even is 1cent. But Maybank still charge 0.42% and rebate every month

Teng said...

Derick

Good to get OSKProp OR at 2.47. I monitor early morning but buy/sell volume small( <10lots most of the time. Pls note 1lot=100 share)

Teng said...

LATEST from Theedge

YTL to privitise more firms

hng said...

Teng

Nothing new, already many time Francis Yeoh signal to privatize its subsidary, but the problem is that at what price and exchange ratio. recall, early this year, YTL intend to take YTL cement priavte at lower than its market price!? , sending YTL cement to selling pressure. However, YTL share mange to surge from 1.40 through aggressive e share buyback and reach at current level, all former YTL cement should be happy. I was the one concentrate all my capital into YTL cement and opt for exchange with YTL at 1.40, but already sold out at these level, miss the big runnup YTL share price. However, still manage to reap 5 digit profit from arbitrage price alone

Teng said...

Hng

Yes,Francis Yeoh said it many times

ck5354 said...

Hi teng,

should we apply for the maybank cash account?

or same as the original account as long as you have cash??

hng said...

horse

Your MSM can sell at higher level now, Well done

hng said...

Bought YTL Power WB at 58.5sen

Teng said...

CK

I am not 100% but should be different account.After I open cash account,Maybank also ask if I want to open margin account

Teng said...

Good for Horse.Hope this cover his loss for MSM-CA.I won't feel so guilty as I was the one introducing CA to Horse

ck5354 said...

According to Nanyang, analysts have singled out cash-rich YTL Power as the next logical candidate for privatisation as this company paid out about RM680 million dividend in FY2011.

Yeoh also added in the interview that YTL group is now in the market looking for takeover opportunities and asset purchase. The markets he is looking at now include Australia and China.

He said: "Every economic crisis and economic downturn provide opportunities for YTL to expand. In previous crises, we had bought Wessex Water of UK, Power Seraya of Singapore, Niseko Village of Japan and other assets."

Teng said...

CK

Previous report said YTLPower is too BIG to be privatise.But possibility still there via share swap

hng said...

Decided to move up 1 sen, bought WYK at 1.18

hng said...

Bought YTL at 1.78

Teng said...

Why Maybank investment want ocnfirmation if I want to subscribe OSKProp right issue?Told her I am buying more OR from market,she said so expensive( RM2+),still need to pay RM1.She know bonus issue and warrant but I guess she thought it is 1 B and W for every right issue subsribed

ck5354 said...

anyone tested out AMbank securities. Now lowest 0.035%, platform same as cimb iclick N2N.

hng said...

Teng

I can tell you for sure, those broker in investment bank are salary based, they lack of trading experience.

Teng said...

Hng

I think so. Early early want me to confirm if I want to subscribe right issue. OR still trading ( in fact 2nd day only).

Tay SK said...

YTL announce that the bond convert into shares effective next Monday. Will it have any effect on its share price?

CK may I know what is ambank securities minimum brokerage? I am using jupiter and osk. Jupiter 0.1% minimum rm10 per contract.

hng said...

Teng

Confirmation can be done till the last day of trading and submit your entitlement.

ck5354 said...

minimum RM 6 or 0.035% which ever is higher for cash upfront.

just now click their website to apply but the form seems like checking your background.

http://www.ambankgroup.com/en/Promotions/Other/Pages/eDirect.aspx

Currently I have 2 - maybank and osk, both also charge very high

Teng said...

0.035% is attractive. I thought it was 0.35%

ck5354 said...

Teng if you interested email me.

Currently I am engaging with 1 of their sales person.

I can forward all the information to u.

She say no limit of time this promotion and if you have cash considered cash upfront. No cash considered normal trade. No need to open two account like HLE and OSK.

Teng said...

CK

Other charges by Ambank is quite high.For example,dividens charged is RM5 for RM20-500dividens and 1% for >RM500. Maybank is RM2.50 per dividen received

Teng said...

Hng

WCT mother is getting more momentum now

Teng said...

CK

AMbank 0.035% or RM6 is good to trade counter like warrants,call warrants or short term trade

ck5354 said...

I plan to open 2 account.

HLA - for divident play, free no charges

Ambank is use for trading and contra purpose.

Teng said...

Hng

WCT-WB near 30. You revenge all including yesterday purchase.( again Cantonese saying)

hng said...

Aiya, YTL closed at 1.76, unable to sellback as i q at my cost 1.78 :(

However, the is more buyer at 1.76, mean tomorrow YTL may gain

hng said...

My average cost on WCT-WB for today and yesterday are about 28.3sen. Due to big volume, every 1 sen advance in WCT-WB give rise handsome paper profit. Still hold it, aim for 5 digit profit.

unavailable kaito said...

HLB account is nominee or personel direct account? If nominee, got any fee charge on dividend?

Teng said...

Hng

I am greedy on YTL as my last trade made 2 sens. Today I want to make 3 sens( 177-180). If I queue 179,it would be matched before 4.45pm. Anyway,hope next tuesday can sell >1.80

hng said...

WCT closed at 1.17, major shareholder buy spree absence today :(. However, these price consider low enough and limited downside risk. Catalyst will be upcoming Q2 result.

hng said...

Sorry, i refer to WTK not WCT typing error again,,,,

ck5354 said...

Not sure. You can email them and ask.

Helpdesk@hlib.hongleong.com.my

They are very fast and efficient.

unavailable kaito said...

Teng
Monday got market
dnt need wait till nxt tues

Teng said...

Kaito

Because monday is public holiday in Selangor,so I thought no market

unavailable kaito said...

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