Wednesday, September 5, 2012

What Do I Do If Market Slump !?

 
 
1. SUNREIT - Continue to bank on SUNREIT. Bought in at RM1.45 and sold at RM1.46. ^^ :) 1sen profit.

2. OSKPROP - Selling pressure continue today couple with bad sentiment and overall sell down. :( Nothing much can be done, just wait for the 5c dividend to be announced by end of this month hopefully.
 
3. HEKTAR-TR - With my average price at 0.1563 add the Right Issue price at 1.23, that make up to RM 1.3863, still below the mother share at 1.40. If the condition don't allow me to dispose at higher price, i will opt to subscribe all the Right shares, with that i hope to gain 1.3sen profit after conversion.
 
4. What do i do if market slump like this? as i stress many times, we only concentrade on dividend yielding stocks. Like what hng mentioned, dividend make some cushion there, if stock trading with cum dividend down side risk maybe minimised. If situation allow you to hold a bit longer, you may reap profit after that or possibly dispose at no loss. If you know your stock well, by all mean pick up more at the right price, dividend may in turn become your only confident factor to load in more for averaging cost down purpose or for earning even more dividend by cushioning your loss further. Either reason also should drive one to buy in more, as you know for sure dividend will set in to cushion your loss if given enough time.
 
5. AFFIN-CG - Teng, i think hard to get at 0.15sen. :( Nevertheless no harm for trying. Good Luck.!
 
6. Watch List - FABER, SUNREIT, OSKPROP, GLOMAC, HENTAR-TR, BREM
 
7. Congratz to hng on JCY. Salute. ^^
 
8. Good Luck !!!
 

73 comments:

Teng said...

Horse


Possible to get 15cents if Affin trade at 3.45 level either morning or afternoon session.but this will lower 5 days average price. Best is Affin trade at 3.45-7 level for short while and some owner desperate to sell

alwayswin111 said...

Hng
I am really amazed you manage to win on JCY today. As for me I dare not.... Congrats on your win
Horse
You are doing well too. Congrats ,
But tread carefully cos market looks like coming down. I am waiting for buying opportunity . Hng I didn't buy Brem bcos not much volume in the counter. Thanks for your tip.

hng said...

alwayswin111

I now waiting for opportunity to re-enter JCY

Teng said...

Hng

Seems like selling pressure on OSKProp and its WC is less today.My queue for WC at 22.5 matched yesterday

hng said...

Teng

Again its all depend on underlying share, if OSK property stop bleeding and gain support now, WC almost certain will follow. Lets imaging once OSK declare dividend of 5sen, assume share up to 1.05 (5%), WC follow half an amount to reach at 27.5sen :)

ck5354 said...

walau wei drop 20 points

Matilah

hng said...

Cut Losssssssssssssssssssssssssssssss

Gark said...

Other country no as bad as us.. usually KLSE more resilient one mah? Wonder really whats up. :/

hng said...

Gark

GE is almost confirm on Nov, Immediately after PM present Budget 2013, Parliament will resolve by end of this month.

Gark said...

No wonder so painful these few days...anyway haven't announced yet right? Could be still be postponed...

Gark said...

I hold a lot of BN crony companies.. hahaha...if lose then die.. :)

hng said...

Gark

Political risk getting higher now, the closer the higher the risk, the painful last 308 is lesson to avoid at all cost. I'll rather cut loss now then wait for bigger loss.

alwayswin111 said...

With this huge plunge, support may come at 1608
which is incidentally Fibonacci 38.2% down and gap support.
We may have a relief rally then ... My thoughts only.

ck5354 said...

wct-wb 3 months low at 0.18, how low can it go???

hng said...

instead of thinking to sell now, i reverse my stand to buy now using my available trading limit to buy.


Bought
Faber 1.31
Huayang at 1.72
WingTM at 1.67
OSK property at 93.5sen
Apollo at 3.14
Gtronic at 1.45
1


ck5354 said...

why suddenly u change your thought?

Mind to share?

Thanks

hng said...

Bought YTL at 1.78, YTL Power-WB at 46.5sen

hng said...

ck5354

I'm opine that after 2 consecutive day down more than 35point, market could due to relief for a while + positive European market

Gark said...

U turn coming? Lots of stocks is off session low...

cheeheng said...

hng,

whn others r selling,we buy....:) cos indiscriminate selling= bargain prices.

i too bought faber@1.31
huayang@ 1.75

ck5354 said...

JCY keng U turn fast

ck5354 said...

YTL share buy back again at 1.83???

hng said...

Sold off YTL at 1.83, thanks to last min share buyback

hng said...

Lets hope all my today purchase can swing back like JCY did.

hng said...

cheeheng

We share same thought on Faber and Huayang. Faber wait for renewal news, while Huayang wait for 1:4 bonus.

Teng said...

I was busy today and missed the sell down excitement

I was telling Horse I will queue Affib CH at 15cts.Horse said unlikely to get,and I was paying highest price today. LOL

Today average is 3.43 and closing 3.41. First 3 days average is 3.471. If tomorrow and monday if can close above 3.45,I still make .004cents

Teng said...

Hng

With exception of Gtronic,most of all counters purchased today already make money or breakeven

I like your YTLPower-WB buy at 46.5. YTLPower closed at 1ct higher at closing( and wb closed at 48.5 cts,down 1 cents). think you can make 2-3 cents if tomorrow mother rebound

horse said...

No trading from me, i was having training today. :(

Teng - I think you can still make from Affin. I share the same view of hng where tomorrow will be rebound. Though getting it at highest, should be able to make some gain there. Good Luck.

horse said...

Look like is can't sell my Hektar-TR, will subscribe all its right. :(

No posting from me tonight.

horse said...

All,

Worry not. DJ future green and europe up firmly.
Tomorrow should be ok for KLCI.

Good Luck.

Gark said...

WCT propose bonus issue 3 for 20 & free warrants 1 for 5...hopefully can go up... :)

horse said...

Thanks Gark for the update.

Congratz to those holding WCT. :)^^

Gark said...

Warrants D proposed at 2.25...discount to current price. Wonder if the BI will affect WCT-WB exchange price or not?

Gark said...

WCT-WB exercise price is proposed to be reduced to 1.85... so good meh? Instant profit! :D

Gark said...

Need expert to verify the WCT proposal, if correct can wallop all the WCT-WB tomorrow. :P

horse said...

Normally Warrants will be readjusted accordingly.

Teng said...

Horse

Hope tomorrow Affin can rebound above 3.48 level

ck5354 said...

this is what i dig out from page 14:

4.5 Convertible securities
The Proposals will give rise to adjustments to the existing convertible securities of the
Company, as follows:-
(i) Warrants B
The adjustment to the exercise price* of the outstanding Warrants B as a
result of the Proposals will be made in accordance with the provisions of the
deed poll dated 12 March 2008 constituting the Warrants B to ensure that the
status of the holders of Warrants B is not prejudiced as a result of the
Proposals. The rights and obligations of the holders of Warrants B will remain
unchanged, save for the adjustment to the exercise price* of the outstanding
Warrants B.
Note:-
* Strictly for illustrative purposes only, assuming the adjustment to the exercise price of
the outstanding Warrants B had already been effected as at 30 August 2012, the
current exercise price of Warrant B at RM2.50 shall be adjusted accordingly to RM1.85,
being the new exercise price of Warrant B.
(ii) Warrants C
The adjustment to the exercise price* of the outstanding Warrants C as a
result of the Proposals will be made in accordance with the provisions of the
deed poll dated 17 December 2010 and supplemental deed poll dated 30
August 2012 constituting the Warrants C, to ensure that the status of the
holders of Warrants C is not prejudiced as a result of the Proposals. The
rights and obligations of the holders of Warrants C will remain unchanged,
save for the adjustment to the exercise price* of the outstanding Warrants C.
Note:-
* Strictly for illustrative purposes only, assuming the adjustment to the exercise price of
the outstanding Warrants C had already been effected as at 30 August 2012, the
current exercise price of Warrant C at RM2.75 shall be adjusted accordingly to RM2.04,
being the new exercise price of Warrant C.

hng said...

ck5354

I don't think the adjustment will be lower to 1.85 as it is based on assuming all outstanding WB and WC converted to WCT before the ex-date for WD and bonus.

The more conservative calculation is to assume none of the outstanding WB and WC converted to WCT before the ex-date. My calculation based on minimum scenario work out to adjustment from 2.50 to 2.00.

Assume WCT trade at 2.60, ex-bonus and ex-warrant D, WCT share should adjusted to RM 2.20-2.260. Based on adjusted conversion for WB at 2.00, warrant-WB worth at 20-26sen

The formula is S-(S-NI)/A

S= current conversion price
NI= number of new WCT to be issue assuming full exercise of WCT warrant
A: enlarged and paid up share capital of the company assuming full exercise of all outstanding convertible securities issue


hng said...

Teng

Sorry, I bought YTL power WB should be at 47.5sen (not 46.5sen), but should have no problem to sell at >50sen tomorrow :)

I like Gtronic for its excellent record in dividend payout, 3 time a year, currently trade cum dividend of 7sen TE, annualized should be 11sen, 7.6% nett .

WingTM recommend here also my target today, expect minimum downside risk and expect 8sen TE to be declare soon.

Teng said...

Hng

Gtronic was counter I miss this year. My friend bought this counter at around 1.40-1.50 about 2 years ago. He kept asking me to buy when it was 90 cents level.

hng said...

Teng

Lets hope Gtronic can rebound tomorrow, and back to >1.50 level. Gtronic currently trade cum dividend of 7sen TE, ex-date on 16 Oct

hng said...

选前效应 信评受压 马股猛跌23点 失守1620


(吉隆坡6日讯)富时大马综合指数走势偏离亚洲区域整体表现,连续两天下跌,因市场揣测政府將在11月举行大选,同时外围因素未有显著改善,加上评级机构警告大马若不解决高债务赤字將下调大马主权信用评级。

马股週四以1633.59点开市后即直线滑落,一度跌至1613.16点,最后收在1617.99点。马股全天下跌23.02点或1.403%,创下两个月低水平。全场30只成份股,只有2只上扬,分別是英美烟草及杨忠礼电力。银行及电讯股则是拖地综指的主要成份股。同时,原棕油价格走势低迷,市场產量和库存量增加的预期,亦拖累种植股项走跌。

对於马股下跌的因素,一名不愿透露姓名的研究主管对《东方財经》表示,相信是过去几天市场认为首相纳吉暗示將在11月进行全国大选,促使投资者爭先在宣布解散国会前拋售股票。按照过去案例,在国会宣布解散前皆出现卖压。

他补充:「其他导致马股下跌的因素,还有各企业宣布的次季业绩表现让人失望。同时,过去几天股市都有人为扶持,一旦机构投资者停止扶盘,市场即陷入跌势。」若以技术面而言,一旦股市跌破关键扶持水平,將触发卖压情绪。

除此之外,来周公布的8月份棕油数据,相信棕油库存的增加,將持续拖累棕油价格走势。同时,政府將在本月杪公布2013年財政预算案,但是我国的財务赤字已引起评级机构的警告,加上国內各种负面因素,进而影响马股走势。

外围方面,近几天都有重大活动,包括欧洲央行酝酿收购成员国债券计划、中国和美国製造业数据不佳,以及上週末的杰克逊霍尔会议。这名研究主管表示,马股呈现大幅跌势,相信是国內因素导致。不过,他仍维持马股年杪1630点的目標水平,並建议投资者进行短期交易,增加手中现金,减持股票。

標普预警降评级

另一方面,標准普尔(S&P)最新报告指出,大马政府若无法兑现承诺,通过改革减少財政赤字和提升国家成长前景,该机构或下调大马主权信用评级。同时,政府的政策改革,应包括推介消费税(GST)和减少津贴。

「若经济强劲成长,政府降低开销,让赤字低於预期,如第十大马计划中的指標,我们或上调大马主权信用评级。」

至於惠誉(FITCH)评级机构於上个月也指出,大马尚未呈现具有说服力的计划,以解决赤字预算和债务的双重威胁。过去四个季度的数据清楚显示,与公眾领域相关活动以及活跃的私人领域活动,成为国內生產总值(GDP)成长的主要推动力。

「在没有显著改革解决燃油津贴、扩大財务收入基础,或减少依赖能源相关收入,要提升国家財务將充满挑战。」

另外,国家財政疲弱的和政府债务,將使主权信用评级受压力。標准普尔表示,大马要从高额津贴以及疲弱收入结构,进行財务结构整顿。「然而,基於政治敏感,我们相信在大选后,才会进行显著的改革。」

该机构指出,大马超过十年的经济成长由大型公共投资带动,对政府財务带来不利影响。但这种模式或出现改变,因政府提倡的经济转型计划,让近期私人领域投资反弹。若这股趋势持续,大马经济將重拾活力

Teng said...

Msia really boleh. DOW up 200 points,almost whole Asia up,Msia flat after down for 2 days

hng said...

Sold off all Huayang at 1.77-1.79; YTL Power WB at 48.5-49sen, realize contra gain

Sold off all Ivory at 50sen, free up margin line but realize paper loss

Teng said...

Hng

Again I have to learn from you the art of cutting loss.

Any reason you choose to sell off Ivory over other counters?( eg OSKProp,Wingtai etc).

hng said...

Teng

The main reason is upcoming GE political risk in Penang.

Gark said...

Now WCT is trading at 2.64, if ex BI/WR then the theoretical price will be 2.29. WB should be valued at about 29 cents? So current WB price is selling at negative premium? Correct me if I am wrong. :)

Teng said...

Hng

Make sense.

Counters with politic link-I think safer to go for GLC rather than counters link to politician?

hng said...

Gark

Right

hng said...

Gark


The adjustment of WB conversion price from 2.50 to 2.00 (or based on maximum scenario 1.85) only can be donw after the ex- bonus and WD, expected in Q4

Teng said...

Gark/Hng

Actual value for WCT ex div/right may be lower than theoritical because free warrants.

Gark said...

Maximum scenario is not likely...
but to unlock the under value, have to wait until Q4, which is very near to the ex-date. Quite high risk...

Gark said...

I think the free warrants should be worth around 0.56 - 0.65 each. (25%-30% premium)

hng said...

I think market still weak despite o/n Dow surge, any relief could be opportunity to sell on strength.

I'll reduce stock holding.

hng said...

Gark

Beware of political risk, is getting higher now and the risk can not solely mitigated by external rally.

We can opt for short term trade to minimize risk and even can capitalize on stock oversold to reap some swing back profit. But overall, try to reduce stock holding even at lost whenever is possible if sentiment turn worse.

Gark said...

Thanks for the sound advice.. anyway I am currently about 25% invested.

Still holding on to some loss laggards, hoping to cut loss at better price than now.

Teng said...

Hng is right.Political uncertainty is biggest risk

I actually not too worry if current government lose in GE.Worse is 'hang parliment' or BN /PR win with slim majority

hng said...

Bought YTL at 1.80

Teng said...

Hng

Both price and volume YTLPower increase today.I never llearn about chart movement.is this signal buying sign?

Gark said...

Look like index losing it's strength, and coming down... even other index gain 2%-4% also not enough power to push up. :P

Teng said...

Gark

I believe GLC/PNB related funds want to preserve their funds for GE.Normally once election called,stock market will down. Imagine how people will cast their vote if they lose money on stock?

hng said...

Bought more YTL at 1.79

hng said...

Teng

I believe so, YTL Power momentum look positive, perhaps already touch its previous hard rock bottom at 1.63 yesterday and rebounding now

hng said...

Bought ultramaximum YTL at 1.79

Teng said...

UOB KH advised investor to sell GLCs and politically link companies before GE. These include FGV,DRB-Hicom,Petronas Gas/Dagangan,Airasia,Armada,UMW,Setia and BAT

Recommend to buy plantation and gaming(BJToto)

I don't quite agree gaming is good choice if one to avoid GE risk

Teng said...

Hng

YTL look good now. I lack of fund now,if not I will buy when it was 178/9,hoping for share buyback before 5pm

Teng said...

Hng

YTLPower-WB now jump faster than mother

alwayswin111 said...

Hng
I agree with you on the weakness of the market. Follow you, sold all my Ivory , incurred loss but prudent move. Chart not so nice. Now I dont have any stocks ... Hng waiting for your cue.

alwayswin111 said...

Hng
I actually wanted to trade Genting today... should have ya? what you think..

hng said...

Sold off all YTL at 1.82, realize 4d gain, more than enough to cover loss on Ivory

hng said...

alwaywin111

Genting hit its hard rock bottom yesterday, today show technical rebound, but chart indicate either sideline or continue upsurge depending on subsequent performance

Teng said...

OSKProp 5 cents dividend ex date 21/9

Major shareholder sold warrant 4-5/9 but bought mother at 0.95

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