Sunday, October 27, 2013

Weekly Trades : 27/10/2013

DAY TRADES : 21/10/2013

DAY TRADES : 22/10/2013

DAY TRADES : 24/10/2013

1. Keep Scalping on YTLP-WB. ^^

2. Watch List : YTL, YTLP-WB

3. Good Luck. ^^

51 comments:

hng said...

Buyback 7.96m share, 74% of today total volume, range 1.88-1.89, increase 0.1% stake, cumulatively at 4.92% or 352.5m in treasury stock now.

Tomorrow 12.83 new share listing from warrant conversion

horse said...

Another 12.8m new share listing.
As long as there is arbitrary gap, those opportunies will keep sending WB for conversion.

Hope the buyback keeping up the momentum. ^^

horse said...

hng,

Myself already own a MPV, so just look see this Serena, not intend to buy.^^
That day i went and see the Serena, spacious & nice. I like the side door where it come with the auto open/close sliding door. Very neat and space saving. Like it very much. Somemore it is fully imported, value for money. ^^

Good Luck. !!!

hng said...

horse

So far, there is 67m warrant converted into share or about 5.74% of total warrant. But these altogether 67m convert share is just 0.92% of enlarge YTLP stake. It is just small fraction compared to YTLP sbb accumulate so far at 352.5m in treasury stake now, (excluding those already cancel 250m), which mean sbb accumulate is far more faster than new convert share by more than 5x higher or every just 20% share buyback is absorb from these warrant convert share and 80% is absorb from exiting share.

All in all, there is not dilution in earning due to warrant conversion at all, but instead, the net effect is still significantly reduce total number of share from open market and if opt for second round of cancellation, the impact is increase EPS.

Frankly, warrant covert new share offer opportunity for sbb to buy more share at lower cost and also create opportunity for healthy correction along current uptrend. As long as there is still gap between YTLP and WB, investor will keep converting to capitalize on these arbitrary profit.

Nonetheless, YTLP and WB is getting more narrow now at 1.5sen compared to more than 5sen last 2 week ago. The conversion will stop If WB can trading at premium, as 4.5 year time value and leverage 3 x offer no reason to convert now if without arbitrary gap.

hng said...

horse

I like Nissan Serena front digital meter, together with embedded Navigator, feel these MPV technology and design can keep value at least for next 10year.

hng said...

Buyback 6.07m share, 59% of today total volume, range 1.87-1.89, increase stake by another 0.08%, cumulatively at 358.6m share/5% treasury stock now.

hng said...

YTL eyes water and power projects in Johor?

PETALING JAYA: Conglomerate YTL Group is actively pursuing infrastructure assets in Johor which may include water treatment and power plants, sources said.

It is understood that among the assets YTL is eyeing is Ranhill Energy and Resources Bhd’s water treatment plants in the state. YTL and Ranhill could not be reached for comments.

Sources said YTL had already started initial discussions to secure large infrastructure projects in Johor.

Ranhill has an exclusive licence to supply source-to-tap water to end-customers in Johor. According to reports, the current licence is valid till 2014 and renewable every three years.

Johor is the country’s second most populous state with about 3.4 million people as at 2012. It is estimated that water consumption in the state would grow by a compounded annual growth rate of close to 7% in the next seven years, underpinned by heavy investment in the property and oil and gas sectors.

Besides its water assets, Ranhill also has a focus on energy and the two sectors had formed the basis for the company’s planned initial public offering for July 31 before it was withdrawn.

To recap, Ranhill’s listing hit a snag after Petroliam Nasional Bhd suspended the licence of its affiliate Perunding Ranhill Worley Sdn Bhd. On July 26, the company announced that it was not proceeding with the listing despite news the licence has been reinstated, albeit for upstream activities.

As for the power sector, YTL is said to be eyeing new assets in Johor.

Its listed utilities arm, YTL Power International Bhd, was one of five companies shortlisted to tender for the Energy Commission’s Project 3B, which comprises a new green field 2,000-MW coal-fired power plant.

The plant, to be built at the respective bidder’s proposed site, is targeted to start by 2019 and may require a capital commitment of more than RM12bil, said analysts.

It is reported that YTL Power has proposed to build a plant in Tanjung Tohor, Johor. The other shortlisted bidders are 1 Malaysia Development Bhd, Formis Resources Bhd, Tenaga Nasional Bhd and Malakoff Bhd.

According to news reports, the closing date for the bid was Sept 30.

An analyst said that with YTL’s power purchase agreement on the Paka and Pasir Gudang power plants set to expire in 2017, the project was an opportunity to potentially replenish its independent power producer (IPP) earnings in the country. But he added that YTL Power would have to put in a competitive bid to bag the project.

YTL Power, the country’s first IPP, is also facing thinning margins from its Singapore unit Power Seraya Ltd due to greater pricing competition. YTL Power also has a 20% stake in PT Jawa Power, the second largest IPP in Indonesia, and a 33.5% stake in Australia’s ElectraNet Pty Ltd, which owns and operates the power transmission grid for South Australia.

In the water business, YTL Power’s main asset is Wessex Water Ltd, a utility concession in the United Kingdom that it bought in 2002.

It is no secret that YTL is on the lookout to acquire concession-type assets. YTL group managing director Tan Sri Francis Yeoh was quoted as saying at the recent Invest Malaysia 2013 forum that the group “had RM14bil in its coffers for years, but we haven’t made any new investment. We’re just waiting for the right time.”

YTL has diversified interests in utilities, construction, property development, hotels and resorts, and technology, among others. Earlier this year, the group, together with partner Malaysia Airports Holdings Bhd, failed to win the £1.2bil (RM5.89bil) bid it had made for London’s Stansted Airport.

hng said...

YTLP and Ranhill have close relation tie in bidding 3B project, new green field 2,000-MW coal-fired power plant. However, after Ranhill withdrawal IPO due to suspension of its Oil and gas license by Petronas, These financial trouble company is in urgent need capital to pare down debt, especially for its nonperforming Senai Desaru Expressway and the fact that all its shareholder anna to exit or pare down stake, especially Robinson Investment control by hedge fund Aqua Resource and Cheval as well as Ranhil CEO Tan Sri Hamdan.

Remark: Ranhil was taken private at 90sen, and wanted to relist at 1.70-1.85


I think what YTLP interest is its power plant in Sabah and Water in Johor.

Its power business is operated through 60%-owned subsidiary Ranhill Powertron I (RPI) and 80%-owned subsidiary Ranhill Powertron II (RPII) with PPAs with the Sabah Electricity, owns and operates two 190-megawatt combined-cycle gas-fired power plants in Sabah, provide an aggregate capacity of 380MW for 21 years under a long-term concession agreement

Its ts 30-years concession to lease water infrastructure from Pengurusan Aset Air Bhd (PAAB), benefit from the rapid development in Iskandar Malaysia and was awarded an exclusive licence by the government to provide ‘source-to-tap’ water supply services in Johor,

horse said...

Watch GAB. ^^

horse said...

Scalp on YTLP-WB, bought in at 0.655 sold them off at 0.665. ^^

1sen profit. ^^

hng said...

Buyback 7.4m share, 59% of today total volume, range 1.88-1.90, increase another 0.11%, cumulatively at 5.11% or 366m in treasury stock now.

alwayswin111 said...

Horse
Do you think the foreign beer issue will dampen GAB's performance?... Technically it is a buy on Monday(Morning star at support)..

alwayswin111 said...

Hng
Sorry for late reply . Didn't read blogs since I last posted on 23oct. Scanned back just now and saw your post.
I trade mainly on technicals with an eye on latest news.
YTLPOWR-wb
0.475 after bottoming and close above M50 (mainly due to your recommendation)... Since sold at 0.655.. Thanks a lot
CMSB.
4.54 on Morning star/Bottomimg/Macd bull c/o and RSI cross back from oversold area... (Sold on 25oct 5.20)
AAX
1.12 gap up above M50 after double bottom.. Showing higher highs.
Also tony Fernadez counters normally drop after listing and then there will be a nice run up after that
TDM
0.85 bottoming/bollinger squeeze/Macd bull signal and centreline crossover . Plantation index also bullish
PADINI
1.80 ..bought in anticipation of breakout.. Since sold at 1.76 at loss
Recent purchases:-
Magnum 3.30
TENAGA 9.39

hng said...

http://www.theedgemalaysia.com/business-news/260964-highlight-ytl-power-leads-the-pack.html


Good news for YTLP coming?

hng said...

若購柔基建資產 楊忠禮能源盈利可增8%
(吉隆坡30日訊)市場傳楊忠禮集團或收購柔佛基建資產,倘若計劃成真,料楊忠禮能源(YTLPOWR,6742,主要板基建)2014財政年每股盈利將提升8%。

 據《星報》報導,楊忠禮集團有意在柔佛擴大基建資產,包括水務處理和發電廠。這符合楊忠禮能源(YTLPOWER)通過收購活動,補償購電合約在2015年到期而導致盈利降低效益。

 據悉,該集團有意收購聯熹能源(Ranhill Energy And Resoures)污水處理業務-柔佛水務控股有限公司(SAJ),並建議在柔州永平東部Tanjong Tohor設立發電廠。

 假設柔佛水務控股價值20令吉,以5%盈利收益而言缺乏吸引力,因此艾芬投資研究分析師認為,預期定價將是聯熹和楊忠禮能源之間絆腳石。

 不過以柔佛水務控股每年可貢獻約1億1000萬至1億3000萬令吉計算,楊忠禮能源進行收購可提高2014財政年每股盈利達8%。而且楊忠禮能源不具融資問題,柔佛水務控股亦有雄厚現金實力。

 分析師維持楊忠禮能源“買進”評級,合理價為2令吉。

 但楊忠禮能源股價走勢表現平平,休市平盤報1.88令吉,閉市收在1.91令吉,起3仙,1261萬1200股易手。
【中国报财经】

hng said...

YTLP afford to bid most competitive against a=other player as it have more financial strength and wining to grab even at margin of 6%, similar to its Power Seraya compared to other player need high teen margin in order to secure financing from bank/loan due to their tight and sketch financial

hng said...

YTLP afford to bid most competitive against a=other player as it have more financial strength and wining to grab even at margin of 6%, similar to its Power Seraya compared to other player need high teen margin in order to secure financing from bank/loan due to their tight and sketch financial

hng said...

http://www.theedgemalaysia.com/business-news/260964-highlight-ytl-power-leads-the-pack.html


Good news for YTLP coming?

hng said...

YTLP has submitted the lowest bid at 25 sen/kWh for the Energy Commission’s tender of Project 3B involving a 2,000MW greenfield coal-fired power plant. YTLP, which submitted the bid with Ranhill Power, has proposed Tanjung Tohor in Johor as the site for the new plant which is expected to cost RM12bil and scheduled to be commissioned in stages in October 2018 and April 2019.

The second closest bid was 1MDB’s proposal at a brownfield site at Jimah, Negeri Sembilan, which apparently does not appear to be in compliance with the terms for a greenfield site

Malakoff, which proposed Pulau Carey in Selangor, submitted a bid at 26 sen/kWh. Surprisingly, Tenaga’s bid at Tanjung Hantu, Segari in Perak turned out to be the most expensive at 28 sen/kWh.

After these 3B tender close on 23 Oct, and expect to announce result by end of these yeat, the Energy Commission is expected to call for another competitive bidding for two gas-fired power plants with a total capacity of 2,000MW under Track 4A and Track 4B by the end of the year

alwayswin111 said...

Hng
Bought some KFIMA today at 1.96.. this is one of your favourite counters?

alwayswin111 said...

Sold Tenaga,MAGNUM.. Incurred contra loss..
Make up for it from sale of TDM..
Remaining stocks in hand AAX and KFIMA

Teng said...

Congratulations Hng on YTL-WB handsome profit

Teng said...

Alwayswin111

Can I ask reason you sold Tenaga?Think Tenaga will release result soon.Positive is coal price soften but weak ringgit may dampen earning

hng said...

alwaywin111

I can't trade anymore at the moment, as all my capital and margin concentrate on single stock; YTLP-WB, already keep it more than 2 month already.....

hng said...

All in all,recent YTLP is full of good news incoming:

1. Possible 2000 MW Coal fire power 3B project
2. Possible acquire Ranhill power in Sabah and water assets in Johor
3. Completion Mega project 1 BestariNet ahead of scheduled on last Sept.
4. Share buyback and cancellation 3.5% treasury share, increased EPS
5. Continue share buyback, accumulate so far 5.11%, reduce outstanding share, possible paved way for privatization

hng said...

Lets extract historical price for both YTLP and WB last 2 year ago

9/9/2011 YTLP: 1.91; wb: 82sen
2/8/2011 YTLP: 2.00; wb 96sen
19/7/2011 YTLP: 2.11; wb 99.5sen
8/7/2011 YTLP: 2.20; wb 1.03

hng said...

alwayswin111

Kfima and TDM both have exposure to palm oil which already bottom up and should in the midst of recovery.

1. If gov decide lifted subsidy for household oil, cooking oil will hike, good for downstream player

2. If gov decide to increase biodiesel from 5% to 10%, should be able to pare down stock, and boost palm oil price.

hng said...

Teng

What stocks in your portfolio?

hng said...

alwayswin111

So, your portfolio now are padini, kfima and AAX right. So be safe if keep for long term to enjoy recurring dividend income from padini and kfima and expansion growth from AAX, possible repeat historic path of its sister company, the next AirAsia

noordin razak said...

hi horse,
i've been a silent reader of this blog for quite sometimes. im just curious. if you dont mind me asking how much do you put in one trade to profit from .005 tick? and what broker do you use? and do you use any stop limit to scalp or you just monitor and q'ing by yourself.

thank you in advance.

alwayswin111 said...

Hng
I already sold Padini. Right now only have Kfima and AAX..
I intend to buy back TDM, if it is able to break above 0.935(or retracement to support around 0.855)
Teng
Sold Tenaga bcos it seems unable to close above 9.42 resistance convincingly.
Moreoover KLCI looks like it may retrace a bit.
I try to keep my losses small.

alwayswin111 said...

Hng
But my highest gain this round from your ytlpowr-wb...
Sigh... should have held on to it.

horse said...

alwayswin,

I've been keeping GAB for more than a decade ago. If not mistaken the price that i bought during that time was at about 4+.
I believe the dividend that i collected all these years would have already cover my investment.
To be frank, up & down of GAB is of no concern to me, i don't intend to sell at all. Thus, i didn't pay attention to external factor on GAB, all i want from this GAB is dividend. ^^

horse said...

I am still clinging all my YTLP-WB. ^^

On & off scalping on this.

More or less fully funded on YTLP-WB.^^

Congratz to all.^^

horse said...

noordin,

Try these brokers, Malacca Sec., Jupiter & HLeBroking. Upfront cash brokerage from 0.08 to 0.1%.

Quantity purchase is vary from counter to counter. Maybe you can try out below range:-
1.00 - 1.60 buy at least 10,000 and above
0.60 - 1.00 buy at least 20,000 and above
0.005 - 0.60 buy at least 50,000 and above

Above just for reference, very much depend how strong and healthy is your capital.^^
Many times i hit max brokerage at RM200 and my trades qty could hit 500,000 per transaction but don't follow me as this one need huge capital and risky. Trades according to your mean and only waht you can afford. ^^

Good Luck. ^^

alwayswin111 said...

Horse
Wow .. That's really good investment. By the way , GAB has corrected so much.. You think I can Coll some?

Teng said...

Hng

As usual,still keep bluechips like PBbank,Sime.Also in my portfolio are Uchi,Mudajaya,KeckSeng and Reits(Starreit,Twrreit,UOAReits,IGBreit)

This week bought Sunway( 284-286)

Sold all YTLPower-WB

hng said...

Teng

Your portfolio is very solid and balance mix across various business segment. Most of them already in handsome paper profit especially PBank, Uchi, KSeng. Well done.

lg said...

Hng, horse,
What is your TP for ytlpwb? Do you think it's possible to break 1.03 with all the good news to push it?

hng said...

Ig

Time is essence, time a lot of patience. Based on historical price, if YTLP able to stand above RM 2.20, wb should be able to trade abobe RM 1.00

9/9/2011 YTLP: 1.91; wb: 82sen
2/8/2011 YTLP: 2.00; wb 96sen
19/7/2011 YTLP: 2.11; wb 99.5sen
8/7/2011 YTLP: 2.20; wb 1.03

Alwaywin111 and Teng,both have realize their handsome profit on YTLP-WB, i thought only left me and horse still keep hold it, now, add Ig still together.

alwayswin111 said...

Teng
Yes very solid investments. I agree with Hng..
Why do you buy Sunway?

lg said...

Thanks hng.
I've losses before on ytlpwb, so this time the opportunity has arrived, so must earn back more & 'maximise' on the profit.
haha.

hng said...

Once Real Estate gain tax begin next year, ,most property counter will have impact on earning, especially Johor based, as no only foreign buyer need to pay REGT, it also need to pay upfront 6% process fee, which will further deter investor interest.

hng said...

Anyone interest on Cap !? going to announce 1 for 2 bonus warrant, exercise price at 35sen. But cap also at the same time will private placement 10% share at 35 sen as well....Cap IPO is 68senm NTA: 49sen and have 20% dividend policy payout. Based on annual EPS of 12sen, potential dividend is 2.4sen, PE 3.6x

alwayswin111 said...

Hng,
TDM....... Sold too early...

hng said...

CPO price stay above 2500 mark, if gov abolish windfall tax, all planter share will be boosted

Teng said...

Hng

CAP listed not too long ago.So fast asking $$ from shareholder again?

hng said...

Based on last financial result, cap have RMB 343m net cash, translating to RM 178m or 30sen/share, is about 2/3 of current share price is in the form of net cash.

Up to own risk profile, must able to pick up share and waiting for Q3 result and bonus warrant 1 for 2 by end of these month.

CAP already announce dividend policy to payout 20% net profit for year 2013 and 2014. With its consistent earning and strengthen RMB against RM, the upcoming Q3 result should record better result. Beside, Cap in actual is in net cash position, and together with private placement, Cap cash balance should even higher and afford to payout dividend.

The private placement and warrant also opportunity for shareholder to average down holding cost at 68sen IPO price.

hng said...

My initial target price is above 60sen. It depends, as Q3 result may record higher earning, if just based on cap net cash deposit alone of RMB 343m, currency strength in RMB from 0.49 to 0.52 vs. RM , Cap already can reap more than 6% higher. With much improved China economy, Cap stand to benefit from recovery of its product and its weakness in its major input cost stainless, CAP should be able to command better margin more than 30%.

I think the private placement and warrant offer opportunity for shareholder/investor to average down their holding cost at 68sen IPO price and share price should response positively once the entitlement of free warrant is announce.

hng said...

After buy CAP today at average 43.7sen, portfolio now add another new stock WCT-WC at 44.5sen.


I'm using available trading limit to buy today these 2 stocks, have to sell back T+3, otherwise need to pledge in FD to secure additional margin line.

hng said...

Buyback 6.89m share, 83% of today total volume, increase 0.1%, cumulatively at 5.28% in treasury stock now.

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