Saturday, May 17, 2014

Weekly Trades Dated : 17/5/2014

1. Traded above. ^^

2. MAS - Loss widen. :( It will only turn worst coming quarter as tickets sale plunge 60% from China. Will MAS keep flying even with such pathetic result ? There is no chance for her to turn around in coming years i guess. How long more will Malaysia government coming into rescure on her ? It will just burning money away if something not done now and it has to be a drastic one if it considering making MAS to be around in the industry or else she will be destined for bankruptcy.
3. Good Luck.


Teng said...

MAS hit low of 15 cents today. MAS now survive from cash raised from right issue last year.But how long cash can last?Avoid aviation counters if possible

hng said...

Bankruptcy is the only route to restructure MAS

1. Cut unprofitable line,
2. Cut unproductive manpower,
3. Get rid of union interference whom trying to protect their self interest
4. Terminate lucrative contract to cronyism....e.g former PM brother is MAS food supplier....prepare low quality food and supply according to the number of seat instead of number of passenger per fight (e.g only 10 passenger in recent KL-Bali fight)

Teng said...


Well said. Main problem at MAS is its union

Congratulation on your KPS

hng said...

I have swap all KPS (sold yesterday at 1.60-1.62) to increase stake in Puncak (bought more at 3.06; average now at RM 2.95)

horse said...

YTLPWR - Bought more at 1.57.

GLOMAC - Bought at 1.07.

horse said...


Still in water play. ^^
Congratz on KPS.

Good luck.^^

hng said...

Sold off all YTLP at 1.59, realize contra profit

The main reason for selloff is Yes incur even higher loss in Q3 -RM 40m vs. Q2 -RM 19m...seem worsening back again.....disappointed....1besterinet still yet to contributing at all......

hng said...

Use free margin from divestment YTLP earlier morning to buyback KPS at 1.51

hng said...

Will look back YTKP/wb if

1. Share buyback resume back
2. Privatize via share swap with YTL
3. Yes turnaround or at least show narrowing loss.

Remark: Latest Q3 result indeed disappointed, not only can't narrow loss but worsening further....Q3 record -RM 40m vs Q2 -RM 19m

4. Secure at least 4A or 4B gas fire power plant
5. Grant extension of its expire IPP
6. Share price slump below RM 1.50 or about YTLP NTA 1.47

hng said...

Water consolidation may opt out splash. This is because State primary target already achieved, that is Syabas and Puncak Niaga already accept take over price.

There is 3 possible scenario for splash

1. Allow Splash to continue it concession for next 17 year, in which KPS able to continue derive steady earning form 30% associate splash and KPS future earning is largely unaffected despite opt for divestment Abbass. This is because KPS 30% associate splash is major earning contributor, form 70% of KPS core profit, and remaining earning 30% from Abbass loss could be offset from interest save from liabilities which to be assume by PAAB. In short, KPS will turn from debt laden to become net cash after disposal Abbass, net cash per share about 60sen/share + continue enjoy steady earning from 30% associate splash for next 17 year.

2. Splash regain back fair valuation, at least close to its book value RM 2.5 billion. Applying 20% discount, splash still value RM 2 billion, KPS 30% stake worth RM 600m or RM 1.20 cash/share. In short, KPS will turn from debt laden to become net cash after disposal Abbass and splash, net cash per share about RM1.80sen/share but loss core profit from water asset, affecting future earning

3. Splash take over remain RM 250m, Wasia enforce to take over splash management, but no ownership change. Legal action will be taken

hng said...

As mention earlier, there is no more conditional take over require all concession must accept in order for consolidation. This is because Khaild primary target is Syabas and Puncak Niaga. Therefore, Khalid will go on to consolidate Puncak, syabas and Abbass , reduce non revenue water, avoid adverse legal ruling from water traffic dispute. Khaild have less problem with splash, no urgency now and it could even allow splash to continue its operation for next 17 year as splash is consider very efficiency and Splash chairman have political connect with Anwar too.


Puncak wishes to update the Exchange that as at to date, the Company has neither concluded nor entered into any definitive agreement relating to the above with the Selangor State Government as discussions are still ongoing with the Federal Government and the Selangor State Government on the matter.

Once the discussions are concluded and a formal offer is received by the Company, the Company will make the requisite announcement to the Exchange as required under the Listing Requirements of Bursa Malaysia Securities Berhad and will also make the necessary arrangements to table the said offer to the extraordinary general meeting of the Company to be convened in due course for the shareholders’ consideration and decision as it is ultimately a matter to be decided by all shareholders of the Company.

hng said...

KPS record Q1 profit before tax = RM 29m, net profit = RM 23.3m, EPS = 4.7sen.

For the financial result, it clearly show that KPS 30% associate splash is major earning contributor as show below

'The infrastructure and utilities sector recorded a profit before tax of RM37.10 million as compared to profit before tax of RM32.97 million in the corresponding quarter 2013. The profit recorded by the sector during the current quarter was mainly due to higher share of profit from an associate company of RM34.71 million as compared to profit of RM26.84 million in the corresponding quarter 2013'

In summary, KPS infrastructure and utilities sector (water) profit derive from

1. Abbass RM 2.4m (Q1 2014) vs RM 6.13m (Q1 2013)
2. Splash RM 34.71m (Q1 2014)vs RM 26.81m (Q1 2013)

The most amazing is that KPS based on its 30% stake associate already record RM 34.71m, implying splash itself in Q1 in actual record RM 115.7m.....cumulative splash should record full year profit before tax RM 462.8m !!??

Khalid offer to take over splash is really crazy at just RM 250m...totally madness, splash only need half year earning already match the offer price....some more, splash have 17 year concession

It is therefore have valid reason to request Khalid to back to original offer price, or at least based on most conservative valuation...PE 5x = RM 2 billion nett or 20% discount to splash book value, to at least justify take over price

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