Received 10sen Dividend From TENAGA & MNRB respectively

Just received 10sen Dividend From TENAGA & MNRB respectively.

Sold TENAGA @ 6.15 and Contra gain on BURSA

Finally, sold my Tenaga at 6.15 that i bought for 6.00 with 10sen dividend as well. Also manage to bought BURSA at 5.10 and sold them at 5.20 just this morning for a quick contra gain. Have gotten my Tenaga's 10sen dividend as well. Not bad indeed the gain from Tenaga, will try catch this giant again if it fall below RM6.

Received 31sen dividend from GUINNESS

Just received final dividend of 31sen from GUINNESS. This is the 12th dividend that i have received ever since i gotten this counter since 2003. Next dividend would likely to be declared in May.

Sold My Tenaga at RM6 for a Contra gain

Just gotten rid of my Tenaga that i bought for RM5.90 at RM6 for a contra gain. KLCI stood at 878.95 up 2.55 point.

Bought More Tenaga at RM5.90

Just bought in more Tenaga at RM5.90. KLCI stood at 876.64 drop 3.86.

Sold HLBANK for RM5.10

Sold all my remaining HLBANK for RM5.10. Queuing TNB at RM6.15.

Received 3rd Interim ST Dividend 3sen from ZHULIAN

Just gotten my 3rd interim Single Tier dividend of 3sen from ZHULIAN. This round is a clean 3sen without tax compare to 2nd interim dividend but it come out to be the same amount. As for my Tenaga, i'm still holding it, after failing to dispose it at 6.15 the other day. Will definitely disposing it when the price touches 6.15 again. My hit and run strategy will remain unchanged for now....

Market Outlook for Next 2 Years

Contra Gain on RESORTS

Bought Resorts at RM2.16 and sold them for RM2.19, making some fast contra gain.

Swap my PBBANK to PBBANK-01

Have just make a swap of my PBBANK at RM8.25 to PBBANK-01 at RM8.05. This swap will in turn make me some small contra pocket money. Have finally adopting "elmo1988" method....Will definitely making a swap back if price of "01" is higher than the local...

Bought TENAGA at RM6.00

Gotten TNB at RM6.00 just now....

Intraday Gain on Resorts again (Second round)

Intraday Gain on Resorts again for a second round today. Bought at RM2.34 and sold at RM2.37....

Sold RESORTS at RM2.37 for Intraday Gain

Sold Resorts at RM2.37 for a quick intraday gain.

Bought RESORTS at RM2.34

Gotten RESORTS for RM2.34 this morning....

Intraday Gain on Resort

Bought Resort at RM2.43 and sold for RM2.47 for an intraday gain.

Received Interim Dividend 3 sen T.E from Yilai

Just gotten Yilai's dividend of 3sen T.E. This is the forth i received so far, has been shrinking comparing to last year. Profit has been decreasing as well. So far it never fail paying dividend, i do hope that this continue to be their policy...
Today sold partially of my HLBANK for RM5.10 but too bad it matches a mere 100Units, this will translate a small contra loss for me, just hope that the remaining can fetch a higher price coming next week.

Are You Aware That There is a New BursaTrade (BT) launching on 1 Dec 2008 ?

Below are some of the changes with the new BursaTrade that will replacing the current one.

1) Pre-opening session 8.30am and 2pm (Opening Auction)
a) No order matching is done
b) Theoretical Opening Price (TOP) based on orders is dynamically calculated, and the last TOP calculated before opening time is set as the natural opening price

2) Opening and continuous trading 9.00am and 2.30pm
a) Market open with the natural opening price which is the last TOP
b) Orders are matched real time based on price-time priority
c) Opening price and quantity of orders matches are broadcast
d) After Opening Auction, system automatically moves to continuous trading phase
e) 5 best price limits are displayed

3) Pre closing 12.15pm and 4.45pm
a) Starts immediately after end of continuous trading phase
b) Orders are accepted and automatically updated in order book WITHOUT giving rise to trades
c) Theoretical Closing Price(TCP) based on orders entered, is dynamically calculated

4) Closing Session
a) Last opportunity to close position at fixed price
b) In the event of no TCP during the period, the closing price will be the last known traded price

5) Trading at Last Session
a) Orders can be entered and matched at last done price only

6) TOP - Theoretical Opening Price
a) Price at which an instrument would trade if it opens at the moment the price is calculated. TOP is calculated on a real-time basis in Pre-Opening Phase.

7) TCP - Theoretical Closing Price
a) Price at which an instrument would trade if it stops trading at the moment the price is calculated. TOP is calculated on a real-time basis in Pre-Closing/Closing Phase.

8) TLA – Trading at Last
a) Orders at TAL will only be entered and matched at the Closing Price. Only Limit orders are allowed and the system will reject any Market Orders.

MORE INFORMATION PLEASE REFER TO www.bursatrade.com

In addition their FAQ is very helpful for newbies http://www.bursatrade.com/guide/faqs.html

Sold Partially HLBANK at RM5.05

Sold partially HLBANK for an intraday contra gain. Remaining will need to set for higher price due to higher brokerage fee.. :-(

Sold Tanjong at RM11.90

Sold Tanjong for RM11.90 for an intraday gain. KLCI stood at 863.76 drop -13.89....

Bonght HLBANK & Tanjong for RM5 & RM11.70 respectively

Bought HLBANK & Tanjong for RM5 and RM11.70 respectively....

Intraday Gain on Maybank

Bought Maybank for RM5.00 and sold them for RM5.05 for an intraday gain. KLCI stood at 866.97 drop -10.68.

Sold Tanjong at RM12.00

Sold Tanjong for RM12.00 for a quick contra gain. KLCI stood at 879.56 drop -3.53.

Bought Tanjong at RM11.80

Bought Tanjong for RM11.80. KLCI 880.50 down -2.59 points. Market seem to be very quiet, hard to make any execution.

Sold RESORT at RM2.60

Sold Resort for RM2.60 for a contra gain. CI drop -14.46 stood at 875.88.

Bought RESORT at RM2.53

Bought Resort for RM2.53 this morning....CI down -7.43...

Huaan new update from RM

Dear WK,

Good day.

Thank you tracking the coal n coke price in custeel. Our Sept08 coal price was RMB 1,737 & coke price was RMB 2,500.

As for Oct08 one, i am still waiting from my Chinese accountant for the official figure. Usually 15th of the month. Anyway, i did my own simple average on the weekly figure from custeel, coal Oct08 was RMB 1,644 & coke was RMB 2,000.

Ya, ytday, i had phone conversation with my Chinese accountant, he was telling me the average selling price of coke was RMB 1500-RMB1,600 for 1st week of November. We recognize that the drop of coke price is fast which is very much in line with the downtrend of steel price in China. FYI, billet steel prices on 25 June 2008 in Shanhai was RMB 5,300 and on 4 November 2008, the price has dropped to RMB 3,150 which indicates a drop of 40% in 4 months.

During the 1H08, in view of skyrocketing of steel price in China, many building / infrastructure contractors have stock pile their steel (bought more than their requirements, which is natural human reaction) and caused oversupply of steel situation after Beijing Olympic. The oversupply situation is expected to persist until the end of the year, although we believe it will be to a lesser extend with demand gradually creeping up. This is because the steel stock would have been run-down by then and that the users of steel will have to start to re-stock. Infrastructure projects in China will not vanish overnight as once started or launched, it will need to be completed within a timeframe, although the said timeframe may be stretched out a little longer in view of the prevailing economic condition. As such, these users should begin to re-stock, if not by the end of the year, 1Q of 2009. That is where demand for steel will slowly recover and thus that of coke.

Our demand (of coke) started to slow down since August 2008 (Apr, May, June & July, there is no apparent sign of slowing down in demand). We expect slowdown in the demand for 4Q08. The recent global economic slowdown, coupled with a domestic housing slump in China has naturally hit China’s domestic demand and export of steel. Mittal group has recently accounced to cut down steel production by 15%. 4 large steel in northern China have announcedto cut down steel production by 20% (approximately 100 million tons).Malaysia steel manufacturers (listed co) are currently running capacity of approximately 50% and according to steel analysts, some are runnning at 33% only. ( According to a forecast by Shanghai-based Orient Securities recently suggested that Baosteel could see a loss of approximately RMB 500 million in the 4Q08 They expect EPS for 2008 and 2009 to be RMB 0.68 and RMB 0.41 respectively.Source: Starbiz dated 31 October 2008).

Sino Hua-An's coke business is very dependent on China steel industry as we sell all of our products to China domestic market. According to the Mr Tai, MD of a Masteel, a Malaysian steel maker, the international steel industry would likely rebound positivrly in the 1Q09 or 1H09, in tandem with other commodity prices. Steel is a commodity and also a necessity in any developing countries like China, should there be any rebound, we strongly believe, steel industry would be the first few industries to improve significantly. Therefore, we are very much in line with the performance of China steel players there. Eg during the good year like 2006 & 2007, we also enjoyed good GP margin of 20%.

Sino Hua-An's management will do the best to run the business effectively and efficiently. Sino Hua-An has no external bank borrowing and is a net cash company since Oct 2007. (As at 30 Aug 2008,the net cash position was more than RMB 120 mil).

Bursa Malaysia invited 7 listed companies from Malaysia (in fact 8, including Bursa itself) to present to retail investors in Singapore. This is the 3rd year Bursa Malaysia is actively helping to promote potential Malaysia companies in overseas. Dato' Yusli (CEO of Bursa Malaysia) will attend as well. The companies that are attending are HELP, Kossan Rubber, Muhibbah, QL Resources, Sino Hua-An, Pelikan, LCL & Bursa.


Thank you for your concern & best regards.

Best regards,
Bernard Tan

Sold Bursa at RM5.40

Sold Bursa at RM5.40, taken some profit from previous purchase. KLCI stood at 886.78 up 23.17 points. What a rebound.

Sold Tanjong at RM12.10 and IOI at RM2.95

Sold Tanjong and IOIcorp at a price of RM12.10 and RM2.95 respectively. Taken some profits from the previous purchases. KLCI stood at 883.81 up +20.20 points.

Received Interim Dividend of 3sen From Genting

Just received interim dividend of 3sen from Genting. KLCI up +6.89 points trading at 861.

Sold GENTING at RM4.28

Sold my Genting at RM4.28 that was bought at RM4.18 last week. This type of market need to sell on strength. I believe this only a short live rally, thing will move downtrend again once the rebound end. Have placed my sell order for IOI as well but not match, will try my luck tomorrow.

Sold Tanjong at RM10.20

Sold Tanjong at RM10.20 for intraday gain. KLCI drop -37.26 (854.06).

Bought Tanjong at RM10

Bought Tanjong at RM10. KLCI down -31.81.....

Bought IOICORP at RM2.68

Bought more IOICORP at RM2.68. Averaging previous purchases....am i catching the falling dagger? KLCI drop -17.90 (873.42).

Received 3sen Dividend From Resort

Just received 3sen dividend from Resort. KLCI down -14.24 at the point of typing this....

Sold Tanjong at RM10.20

Sold Tanjong at RM10.20 for some intraday gain.

Bought GENTING (3182) at RM4.18

Bought GENTING at RM4.18. Averaging the previous purchases.

Bought Tanjong at RM10.10

Bought Tanjong at RM10.10 this morning. Averaging the earlier purchase that bought at RM11.80.

Received 6sen Dividend From BJTOTO

Just gotten BJTOTO's First Interim dividend of 6sen. The second interim dividend would likely to happen in coming december in which i expect the dividend rate is in the declining stage.

Sold TENAGA @ RM6.55

Just sold my Tenaga for RM6.55 for some contra gain. Unlikely that Tenage will lower down thier electricity tariff rate which many have hope for, in view that the price of coal — which makes up 60% of TNB’s power generation fuel costs and the weakening ringgit will result higher cost for coal and operation. TNB posted a net loss of RM282.9mil in the fourth quarter ended Aug 31 compared with a net profit of RM168.4mil in the previous corresponding period. For FY09, it is expected that the growth in electricity demand to slow down for TNB. It also expected higher capacity and energy payments to IPPs.
Bye and happy trading, may the best price be yours.

Bought Tenaga (5347) at RM6.35

Bought back Tenaga at RM6.35 again this morning. KLCI stood at 916 down -33.77. Till then happy trading.....

Bought Tanjong at RM11.80

Bought Tanjong at RM11.80. This is almost the same price that i bought back in year 2006, in fact i got it at RM11.90 then. After about 2 years i bought it back again but of cource if one were to factor the dividend in, then my cost price for the units bought in 2006 would now stood at RM10.60 approximately. See how a dividend stock can really cushion your share price....

Received Interim Dividend of 5sen from CARLSBERG

Just received interim dividend of 5sen from Carlsbg. This is the 6th dividends that i received from Carlsbg thus far and it never failed to give out dividend so far. Dividends have been given consistently twice a year in May and October respectively. Total dividend payout ranging from 35sen to 37.5sen per annum, this will translate to a DY of 9% to 10%....

Lending Market Problems have now hit Japan

Just For Laugh

Following the problems in the sub-prime lending market
in America and the run on Northern Rock in the UK , uncertainty has
now hit Japan.

In the last 7 days Origami Bank has folded, Sumo Bank
has gone belly up and Bonsai Bank announced plans to cut some of its
branches.

Yesterday, it was announced that Karaoke Bank is up for
sale and will likely go for a song while today shares in Kamikaze Bank
were suspended after they nose-dived.

While Samurai Bank are soldiering on following sharp
cutbacks, Ninja Bank are reported to have taken a hit, but they remain
in the black.

Furthermore, 500 staff at Karate Bank got the chop and
analysts report that there is something fishy going on at Sushi Bank
where it is feared that staff may get a raw deal.

Sold Bursa at RM6.10

Sold my Bursa at RM6.10 that gotten at RM5.75 this morning for a contra gain. Market bounce back strongly, current KLCI added +20.83 points. How long will this market last? will it take another dip later? We will wait and see....

Sold Tenaga at RM6.55

Just sold Tenaga at RM6.55 for a contra gain. Would definitely try to get it back when it dip back to 6.00 to 6.30 region.

Bought BURSA at RM5.75

Gotten BURSA at RM5.75 as well. KLCI is -33.61 now....PBBANK-01 is RM8.65 dip 85sen...wow my morning purchase at RM9.15 has cost me a loss of 50sen already. There goes my PBBANK-01 for now. Certainly will average downward based on my available fund.

Bought PBBANK-01 at RM9.15

PBBANK-01 matched at RM9.15 just now. Index is -26.05 now.... BURSA & MAYBANK still in queue....

Bought Tenaga (5347) at RM6.35

Gotten back Tenage at RM6.35 this morning. -22.39 point now...more downside expected. I have placed some buy orders as well, BURSA, MAYBANK & PBBANK-01 are all in the queue.

optimism ?? Light at the end of still a long tunnel !!

It seems really difficult to be an investor these days…doesn’t it? Everything you could possibly invest in seems to be going down down down, from the US, UK, China and Singapore. From stocks to commodities.

The intuitive reaction is to get out of the stock market and get into cash. There is intense fear everywhere that this is financial Armageddon and that the stocks will never recover. Yesterday, CNBC’s Jim Cramer (the guy who predicted that Bear Sterns was FINE) threw in the towel and urged all his viewers to SELL SELL SELL, saying that the Dow Jones dropping another 20% to 7,700 is a possibility.

This fear of buying any stocks and the ’sell before I lose everything’ mentality is what is causing the huge drops in stock prices. The Dow Jones plunged to 9955 (as low as 9,600 intraday) and the S&P 500 down to 1,056.The indexes are down roughly 30% from their highs in Oct 2007. The markets have been on a downtrend for 12 months since the Financial crisis erupted.

Before you start panicking like the rest of the crowd and sell your stock positions, always remember that history always repeats itself. This same panic and fear that caused investors to sell at huge losses (and never daring to go back into the market again) is what happened during the last three crashes.

The Crash of 1973- 1974: Stocks crashed 45% over 24 months. It later rallied 300% over an 11 year bull run.



Black Monday (1987). Stocks crashed 38%. Within 2 months, it rallied 561% over a 12 year bull run.



The dot com bubble burst (2001-2003). Stocks crashed 36% over 24 months. It later rallied 86% over a 4 year bull run.




History shows that the harder they fall, the stronger the bull run that follows. Fibonacci expansion in technical analysis shows that the next XOP (extended objective point on the Dow over the next decade would be 18,000 points, The Dow is now at 9,900. That is a 100% return from where we are.

Invest Only With Money You Do Not Need

So, am I saying that you should take all your money and dump it in the stock market right now? NO! There is a high chance that the market could still go a lot lower before it gets better. Remember that we have been in a bear market for only 12 months. The last bear markets of 200-2003 and 1973-1974 lasted 24 months. We are down 30% from the highs. We could well go another 10-20%. Again, nobody can predict the market and I am not pretending to. Anything can happen and it is almost impossible to buy right at the bottom. For all I know, the market could recover and rally next month.

So, what does a smart investor (opposed to trader) do? The most important thing is to invest with money you do not need to use for the next 2-5 years!!!! The reason why people lose out the the stock market is because they are forced to sell at ridiculously low prices (like now) because they HAVE TO raise cash to pay for their house payments, car payments, children’s education. Never Ever Use Money Which You Will Need. And NEVER EVER EVER borrow money to INVEST.

Invest In Great Companies With Solid Fundamentals

Remember that crashes are where FORTUNES ARE MADE. It is YOU, the well educated investor from Wealth Academy that must now put all your learnings to the practical test. Now is the time to research on those great companies (wide economic moat, way undervalued, history of consistent earnings, Low or zero debt, high ROE) and buy them at huge discounts when NOBODY WANTS TO TOUCH STOCKS. When the market turns around (anywhere from 1 month-12 months), you will be those very few who can say that the crisis was where you made your fortune and laugh all the way to the bank.

This is exactly what our dear Warren Buffett is doing right now, spending billions buying up companies for just pennies to the dollar. He just bought up GE, Added to UNH and also GS. The safest thing you can do is to look at non-financial stocks (the financial stocks have assets that are just too complicated to value) or even just simply buying the Index ETFs! That is a no brainer!

As I have always used a consistent dollar cost averaging model, I will not be looking to time the market so much. Rather, I will just happily and consistently add more and more very good stocks to my portfolio REGULARLY at these really great bargain prices.

Goodie…A Recession May Be Coming Soon!

9 Months ago, I mentioned to all of you (in my earlier postings) that the US will not be entering a recession as the boost from US exports (from a falling US dollar) and steady consumer spending will keep moderate growth DESPITE INCREASING OIL PRICES and the financial crisis. Sure enough, the last two quarters of GDP growth WERE POSITIVE and kept the US out of recession.

However. I now think that there is a big possibility that a RECESSION WILL BE COMING. Here are the reasons (extracted from moneycentral.com- Jim Jubak)

1. On Sept. 24, the Commerce Department reported that sales of new homes had dropped by a seasonally adjusted 11.5% in August from July’s already low levels. Sales of 460,000 for the month were down from the 520,000 new homes sold in July and the 500,000 sold in June. Sales for August 2008 were down 34.5% from sales in August 2007 and reached their lowest monthly total since 1991.

2. The Labor Department reported that new unemployment claims had risen to a seasonally adjusted 493,000 in the week ending Sept. 20. That was up from 461,000 the week before. The total number of new and continuing claims climbed to 3.5 million, about 1 million more than at the same time in 2007. Recessions typically see new weekly claims rise to 500,000. The economy isn’t quite there yet, but it’s getting very close.

3. New orders of durable goods — cars, furniture and other items that are expected to last three years or more — fell 4.5% in August, the Commerce Department reported, after posting slight gains in July, June and May. Even after the exclusion of orders for aircraft, which fluctuate wildly from month to month, and automobile sales, which everyone knows are in the tank, new orders were down 3% in August.

4. Consumer spending is starting to be cut and the rally in the US dollar (because of the plunge in Europe) will hurt US exports as well.

So, Why the Hell is this Good?

Recession = Stock Market Recovery

As crazy as it may sound, the START OF RECESSIONS often signals the ENDING OF A BEAR MARKET.

Take a look at the timing of the bear market of 1973-74 and the recession of 1974-75. This 21-month bear market resulted in the S&P 500 500 Index falling 50% from January 1973 through October 1974. The economy didn’t actually go into a recession until the third quarter of 1974. Economic growth fell 4.4% in the third quarter of 1974, 2.2% in the fourth quarter of 1974 and 5.1% in the first quarter of 1975.

If you compare the timing of the recession and the end of the bear market, you’ll notice that the stock market bottomed in October 1974. That’s at the beginning of the fourth quarter. At that point, the recession had just begun and had another quarter and two thirds to run. From the end of October 1974 through the end of March 1975, while the recession was running in full roar, the S&P 500 ACTUALLY CLIMBED 13%.

Because STOCKS DO NOT REFLECT THE ECONOMY but ANTICIPATE IT, the stock market rallies before a recession actually ends. And it was the visible onset of a recession that, in the case of the 1974-75 recession, helped the stock market find a bottom.

So let’s hope that the actual economic recession will come and start signaling the start of the new bull market and the creation on our next fortune.

Sold TENAGA @ RM6.75

Sold my Tenaga at RM6.75 for an intra-day gain. At the point of typing this, KLCI drop 27.16 points. What a day, will market continue to slip or it will bounce back strongly ? Definitely an exciting thing to find out first thing in the morning tomorrow. Hope to catch this giant back again....see ya..

Bought Tenaga (5347) at RM6.45

Gotten TENAGA at RM6.45 as well.....wow!! -34 points now...

Bought IOICORP at RM3.74

Bought IOICORP for RM3.74 this morning. TENAGA was still in the queue. KLCI dip 22 points about 2.3% down in the first session. This look like is just the begining of the traumatise, overall global financial is in trouble. Hold your pants tight or there may be opportunity to lock in some good stock for long term.

Received Interim Dividend single tier 10sen from IOICORP

Just received 10sen dividend from IOICORP. Have placed 5 orders yesterday night but none of them match so far despite DowJone plunge 550 points. IOICORP, RESORT, PBBANK-F, BURSA & TENAGA are the counters that was placed, none of them hit my TP eventhough the margin that i placed is not too far off from yesterday's closed. May keep an eye on these counters. Happy trading and see you...

3 Ways to Value Stocks

By Ooi Kok Hwa
TheStar

MOST stocks sell at a certain price level influenced by the companies’ future income, the overall market conditions as well as the assets owned.

Three factors – income, market and asset approach – can be individually used to value a company.

Income approach: Under this approach, a company’s value is dependent on the present value of its future cash flows, which can be in the form of dividends, profits or cash movements. In Malaysia, we can use this approach on companies that are paying good and consistent dividends or companies showing strong future revenue and profits. In most times, these will show stable stock prices regardless of market conditions.

The overall condition may be weak, but these companies will be selling at high value due to the potential of their future businesses as well as the certainty of future dividend payments. Investors will hold them for the long term and will be quite reluctant to sell these stocks as they always reward them with handsome dividend payments. In Malaysia, these companies normally have repetitive consumer needs with products that wear out fast, are used up quickly as well as have strong brand appeal.

Examples include powdered milk, instant noodles, condensed milk, infant formula, soft drinks, canned milk, dairy products, toiletries or healthcare products. Most of these products are consumed fast and have strong brands. Given the present weak economic environment, despite higher operating costs, especially high raw material prices, these companies still enjoy good turnover and sales, as they are able to pass the higher costs to consumers.

Even though retailers need to fork out more money to pay for their products, it is necessary, as the products have already formed part of the essential items in most households. As a result, their financial results may not be much affected by the weak economic environment. In fact, they will still be able to reward their shareholders with good dividends. Hence, such stocks can be purchased any time, depending on the future outlook of their businesses rather than the overall market conditions.

If these stocks’ outlook is promising and able to generate high turnover, profits and cash flows, retailers may buy them now even though the future remains bleak. Market approach: Under this approach, the companies’ value depends on the market prices of similar types of companies. In most instances, the fluctuation of the overall market sentiment can affect their stock prices.

For example, the stock prices for companies like Telekom Malaysia Bhd, Tenaga Nasional Bhd and Malayan Banking Bhd will fluctuate based on the overall market risks and returns. Even though these stocks do pay dividends, their price movements tend to follow the overall market fluctuation. We use price-earnings ratio or price-to-book to value these stocks, which will depend on how many times the current market price is above their earnings or book value. Then we compare these ratios with companies in the same industry. The timing to purchase this type of stocks is important, as we need to catch them when the market touches the bottom.

Unfortunately, predicting the market bottom is a very difficult task in view of the uncertainties of the market outlook.Asset approach: We use asset approach on companies that own a lot of assets, like land banks, buildings or other fixed assets. Under this approach, the companies’ value will depend on the types of assets owned by the companies. Among the three approaches, this is the least important in evaluating any ongoing concern companies because they will not liquidate their assets.

When we buy into these operating companies, we are more interested in how much future cash flow that can be generated rather than to expect any cash proceeds from the disposal of their assets.

Ooi Kok Hwa is an investment adviser and managing partner of MRR Consulting.

Received Dividend from Panamy, MNRB & Maybulk

Just received dividend from Panamy of 100sen, MNRB of 15sen and Maybulk of 10sen respectively. Hope in the downtrend market we get more on this, as this provide some cushion to our share price and in the long run may generate some steady income stream that giving better rate than bank's interest rate.

Married Too Long

3 women: one engaged, one married and one a mistress, are chatting over
lunch and conversation turns to their relationships. They decided that night to surprise their men. All three would wear a black leather bra and thong, stiletto heels and a mask over their eyes.

A few days later they meet up for lunch.

The engaged woman: The other night when my boyfriend came over he found me
with a black leather bodice, tall stilettos and a mask. He saw me and said,
'You are the woman of my dreams. I love you.' Then we made love all night long.

The mistress: Me too! The other night I met my lover at his office and I was wearing the leather outfit, heels, mask over my eyes and a raincoat.
When I opened the raincoat he didn't say a word, but we had wild sex for hours.

The married woman: I sent the kids to stay at my mother's house for the night. When my husband came home I was wearing the leather bra, black stockings, stilettos and a mask over my eyes. He walked in the door, looked at me and said,
'What's for dinner, Batman?'

More Info from Huaan

Dear WK,

Good day.

Sorry to reply you late.

The decision to discontinue with Deloitte & Touche was primarily due to the fact that their fees was deemed to be on the high side. For the audit on the FY2007, we were charged approximately RM1 million, notwithstanding the fact that we have only 1 active company (ie Linyi Yehua Coking Co. Ltd) and the number of transactions are not voluminous. One of the shareholders, during the AGM, even spoke out highlighting that the audit fee that we paid was exceptionally high.



The reason for deciding on Anuarul Azizan Chew & Co. as the new replacement auditor is due to the fact that they are the member firm

of an international accounting firm called Morison International. Morison International was the firm that was involved in the re-audit of Linyi Yehua Coking Co. Ltd (our only active company in China) to ensure that the audit then was IFRS compliant for the purposes of submission to the Securities Commission for the IPO of Sino Hua-An. Premised on that rationale, we feel that the team from Morison International (Hong Kong office) are already familiar and well-versed with the Company (Linyi Yehua Coking Co Ltd and PIPO Overseas Ltd), the Coking business, our operating environment, etc and should be able to very quickly pick up where Deloitte has left off, rather than a totally new audit firm who will then need to take time to first try to understand our company, the business, the industry, etc. We take cognizance of your “concern” that Anuarul Azizan Chew & Co. is not one of the renown Big 4 Accounting firm, a similar point was also highlighted and deliberated at length by our audit committee. However, it was felt that since our active company, namely Linyi Yehua Coking Co. Ltd is the only company that our entire business operations are located at and that it is the only company that generates business revenue and profit for the Sino Hua-An Group, if we need to change auditors, we should choose one that has the competencies to perform audit on China companies and familiar with our business operations whilst meeting our objective of a lower fee structure.



Morison International (Hong Kong)’s PLC clienteles are as follows:



中國B股客戶

PRC Shenzhen B shares

- 深圳市飛亞達(集團)股份有限公司Shenzhen Fiyta Holdings Limited

- 合肥美菱股份有限公司 Hefei Meiling Company Limited

- 深圳本魯克斯股份有限公司Shenzhen Benelux Enterprise Company Limited

- 深圳方大集团股份有限公司 China Fangda Group Company Limited



中國B股客戶

PRC Shanghai B shares

- 上海華源凱馬股份有限公司 Kama Company Limited

- 上海華源股份有限公司 Shanghai Worldbest Company Limited



香港上市公司審計師

Hong Kong listed company

- 哈爾濱動力設備股份有限公司 Harbin Power Equipment Company Limited

- 普鈉集團有限公司 Plus Holdings Company Limited

- 艾克國際控股有限公司 Akup International Company Limited

- 百威國際控股有限公司 Bestway International Holdings Limited

- 新怡環球控股有限公司Sunny Global Holdings Limited

- 老虎科技(控股)有限公司Tiger Tech Holdings Limited



重大交易事項的申報會計師

Substantial transaction reporting to HKSE

- 南京熊猫电子股份有限公司 Nanjing Panda Electronics Company Limited

- 榮盛科技國際控股有限公司 Solartech International Holdings Limited

- 和記電訊國際有限公司 Hutchison Telecom International Company Limited

(上市招股書印度業務的申報會計師)



內部監控評核

Internal control review

宇陽控股(集團)有限公司 Eyang Holding (Group) Company Limited

利君國際醫藥(控股)有限公司 Lijun International Pharmaceutical (Holding) Company Limited



OTCBB US

- Home System Group Inc

- Gulf Resources Inc



馬來西亞主板上市公司

Malaysian listed company

- Sino Hua-An International Berhad



上市公司秘書

Company Secretary Services

- 中國人壽保險股份有限公司 China Life Insurance Company Limited

- 吉之島(香港)有限公司 Aeon Stores (HK) Company Limited





As for Anuarul Azizan Chew & Co. (which you are “concerned” of for their seemingly lack of public visibility), they will only be doing the audit on Sino Hua-An (company level) and consolidate the audited figures that generated out from Morison International, their member firm. We are dealing with Mr Patrick Chew (the managing partner of Anuarul Azizan Chew) directly and he will be assisted by Mr Declan Yong (a Principal in the firm, whom I believe is slated for partnership soon). Anuarul Azizan Chew’s list of PLC clientele are as follows:



· Tradewinds (M) Berhad (audit)

· Magna Prima Berhad (audit, tax)

· Prinsiptek Corporation Berhad (audit)

· GHL Systems Berhad (audit, tax)

· N2N Connect Berhad (audit, tax)

· LBI Capital Berhad (audit)

· Weng Zheng Resources Berhad (audit, tax)

· Nepline (M) Berhad (audit, tax)

· LBS Bina Group Berhad (audit, tax)

· Aturmaju Resources Berhad (audit, tax)

· Paragon Union Berhad (tax)

· My E.G. Services Berhad (tax)

· TSR Capital Berhad (internal audit)

· Komarkcorp Berhad (internal audit).



Thks & rgds,

Bernard Tan















Th



T





----- Original Message -----
From: y wk
To: Bernard Tan
Sent: Sunday, September 21, 2008 12:11 PM
Subject: Re: Sino Hua-An International Berhad: Aseambankers & Kenanga Research report dated 25 August 2008 (2Q08)


Dear Bernard,

With reference to your announcement to Bursa dated 20/05/08, what are the reasons in regards the change of the previous auditors from Deloitte & Touche to a smaller & unknown auditor named Anuaral Azizan Chew & Co.? Which listed company are they (Anuaral Azizan Chew) engaged as an auditors for their firm? Will the new appointment be as reliable as the previous?

Thank you

Regards

WK

More Info from IR manager about HUAAN

Dear WK,

Good day.

I have spoken to my Chinese MD, Mr Liu on yesterday evening. He acknowledged that the rullings is purely in Shanxi (50% cut in production). So far in Shandong Province there is no such rullings. However, Mr Liu said the steel industry in China is slowing down since June 08 (as witnessed by the dropped of steel price). Although the growth drivers (Sichuan rebuilding, Shanghai-Beijing express rail, Western part /non coastal city developments)are still there, the demand of steel is slower due to year 2006 , 2007 & 1H08 the growth were too fast.

The poor demand of steel is mainly because steel manufacturers are currently facing with increasing raw materials issue(iron ore increased 96% since June 2008 from BHP and Rio Tinto). The end users (developers, contractors, shipbuilders, automobile manuf) could not fully absorb the high steel price in the Chinese market. Moreover, during the 1H08, many contractors stock pile their steel input (that time steel price was moving up very fast). Therefore, they are still having the enough reserve and temporarily their demand of steel is expected to be lower.

OSK Research reported in the Nanyang Business dated 12 Sept 2008 that short term the demand of steel in China is slower but they are positive that in the medium to long term, the steel industry would continue to grow. In the report, it mentioned that during summer season (On-going Beijing Olympic & Paralympic) and Puasa Month in Middle East, the demand of steel is generally cyclicaly slower.

As for Hua-An, our 1st phrase (1.2 millions tons of coke) is running at 110% capacity, 2nd phrase (new 600,000 tons coke, commissioned since June 2008), running at 70% capacity. In 4Q08 (after Paralympic), barring any unforseen circumstances (eg natural disasters to happen)if the demand & supply of steel in China come back to normal, we are hopeful that we would gradually increase our 2nd phrase capacity.

Thank you for your valuable inputs.

Best regards,
Bernard Tan

----- Original Message -----
From: y wk
To: Bernard Tan
Sent: Tuesday, September 16, 2008 9:48 AM
Subject: Re: Sino Hua-An International Berhad: Aseambankers & Kenanga Research report dated 25 August 2008 (2Q08)


Dear Bernard,

Thanks for your update. I read from the news that the coking association has urge their members to slash output by 50% due to poor demand.

Is Huaan following suit and what is Huaan's management take in tackling this issue.

(Refer attachment)

Thanks

WK

Received 2nd interim single tier dividend 3sen from ZHULIAN

Just received 2nd interim single tier dividend 3sen from ZHULIAN.....wonder when will be the next dividend ??

Sold PBBANK (1295) at RM9.85

Sold off my PBBANK at RM9.85 in which i bought yesterday at RM9.60. Making some small contra gain. I am still very pessimistic with the current market, not that i am gloomy about our local bourses but is the entire globe that having the crisis altogether. Somehow our local bourse which i felt have more negetive prospect than others beside US. Don't think it gonna spike up any surprise in the short term in which it will move up the index......

Sold IOICORP at RM3.88 for a quick contra gain

Sold my IOICORP at RM3.88 which i bought this morning at RM3.78 for a quick intra-day gain...

Bought IOICORP at RM3.78 & PBBANK at RM9.60

Bought back my PBBANK at RM9.60 in which i sold at RM10.20 couple of months back and averaging down IOICORP at RM3.78. Market is still drifting downward, don't think it stable for now, KLCI might go down further to the level of 850 to 900. Would start my level buy now and accumulate some solid stocks but as for now nothing sound safe, even Bank like Lehmen Brothers and big company like AIG also get into trouble. So no sure bet in any stocks you pick eventhough you think there are blue chips of the blue chips.

Sold TENAGA @ RM6.50

Sold my Tenaga at RM6.50 within the same day and make some tiny gain for lunch money....market sentiment not good, CI expected to go < 1000.....

Bought Tenaga (5347) at RM6.40

Just got in Tenaga at RM6.40 this morning....selling pressure is still there, may pick more in RM5.00+ region....

What had HUAAN's IR Manager got to say ??

taddaaa.....

huaan.. dropping like flies... but their IR manager still very optimistic.... hmm.... i think should wait till volume subside before going in again....

trading at below 40c.... tat is unbelievable la...

totoNote: forwarded message attached.
Get your preferred Email name! Now you can @ymail.com and @rocketmail.com.
-----Inline Message Follows-----
Dear Y WK,

Good day.

Attached herewith is the coke and coal prices of Linyi Yehua Coking Co Ltd, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Sino Hua-An for your kind perusal. We have till July08 only. Aug08, our Chinese accountant is still compiling them. Usually by middle of
Sept we would receive the email from him. The moment i receive i will update you.

Fundamental we are intact, just that recently the steel industry in China has slowed down (usually June , July & August-summer season slower & also Beijing Olympic & on- going paralympic). Steel players are facing increasing raw material prices (especially iron ore), bcos they need to import about 50% from Brazil & Australia. Growth drivers are still there, 西部大开发(western part of China development), Sichuan reconstruction, Beijing-Shanghai hi-speed rail, Shanghai Expo 2010, shipbuilding, automobile & construction... Hope the steel players in China could negotiatiate better iron ore price after the govenment recently increased coke export duty from 25% to 40% ( China export more than 50% of global coke supply).

Red chips in Singapore are also badly hurt / poor performance. In fact ,most of them are not performing (in tandem with Shanghai index drop from 6000 + to 2400 points). Many are trading PE below 5. Feedback from a few fund managers, their appetite are on blue chip with high liquidity and they are not considering 2nd liners or 3rd liners for the time being even though their PE are highy attractive.

Thank you very much.

Best regards,
Bernard Tan
----- Original Message -----
From: y wk
To: Bernard Tan
Sent: Tuesday, September 09, 2008 1:36 PM
Subject: Re: Sino Hua-An International Berhad: Aseambankers & Kenanga Research report dated 25 August 2008 (2Q08)
Dear Mr Bernard,

Any updates on the company's coke selling prices & coal purchase prices lately?

Thank you

Regards

Bought more Genting at RM5.25

Bought more Genting at RM5.25. Applying downward averaging.......

5 ThingsYou Need to Know to Ride Out a Volatile Stock Market

1 Watching from the Sidelines May Cost You
When markets become volatile, a lot of people try to guess when stocks will bottom out.
In the meantime, they often park their investments in cash. But just as many investors are slow to recognize a retreating stock market, many also fail to see an upward trend in the market until after they have missed opportunities for gains. Missing out on these opportunities can take a big bite out of your returns. Consider that in the 12 months following the end of a bear market, a fully invested stock portfolio had an average total return of 36.8%. However, if an investor missed the first six months of the recovery by holding cash, their return would have been only 7.6%.
The table below is a hypothetical illustration showing the risk of trying to time the market.
By missing just a few of the stock market’s best single-day advances, you could put a real crimp in your potential returns.
"The market seems to be up one day and down the next. I’d rather wait before investing.”

Jumping In and Out of the Market May Cost You 10 Years Ended December 31, 2007. Period of Investment Average Annual Total Return of S&P 500 Index2

Stayed Fully Invested 5.91%
Missed the 10 Best Days 1.13%
Missed the 20 Best Days -2.55%
Missed the 30 Best Days -5.72%
Missed the 40 Best Days -8.40%

2 Dollar-Cost Averaging Makes It Easier to Cope with Volatility
Most people are quick to agree that volatile markets present buying opportunities for investors with a long-term horizon. But mustering the discipline to make purchases during a volatile market can be difficult.
You can’t help wondering, “Is this really the right time to buy?”
Dollar-cost averaging can help reduce anxiety about the investment process. Simply put, dollar-cost averaging is committing a fixed amount of money at regular intervals to an investment. You buy more shares when prices are low and fewer shares when prices are high, and over time,
your average cost per share may be less than the average price per share.
Dollar-cost averaging involves a continuous, disciplined investment in fund shares, regardless of fluctuating price levels. Investors should consider their financial ability to continue purchases through periods of low price levels or changing economic conditions. Such a plan does not
assure a profit and does not protect against loss in a declining market.

Dollar-Cost Averaging at Work
Monthly Investment Shares Purchased
Month Amount Share Price Each Month
January $500 $9.00 55.6
February $500 $10.00 50.0
March $500 $8.00 62.5
April $500 $11.75 42.6
May $500 $12.25 40.8
June $500 $9.00 55.6
Total $3,000 $60.00 307.1
AVERAGE SHARE PRICE: $10.00 ($60.00/6 purchases)
AVERAGE SHARE COST: $9.77 ($3,000/307.1)
The average cost of your shares would be $0.23 less than the average price of your shares over that period.

3 Now May Be a Great Time for a Portfolio Checkup
Is your portfolio as diversified as you think it is? Meet with your financial advisor to find out. Your portfolio’s weightings in different asset classes may shift over time as one investment performs better or worse than another.
Together with your advisor, you can re-examine your portfolio to see if you are properly diversified. You can also determine whether your current portfolio mix is still a suitable matchwith your goals and risk tolerance.

4 Tune Out the Noise and Gain a Longer-Term Perspective
Numerous television stations and websites are dedicated to reporting investment news 24 hours a day, seven days a week. What’s more, there are almost too many financial publications and websites to count. While the media provide a valuable service, they typically offer a very short-term outlook. To put your own investment plan in a longer-term perspective and bolster your confidence, you may want to look at how different types of portfolios have performed over time. As you can see below, while stocks may be more volatile, they’ve still outperformed income-oriented investments (such as bonds) over longer time periods.

Hypothetical Performance of Asset Allocation Portfolios (12/31/87–12/31/07)

100% Stocks $75,110 10.61% 38.36% -19.41%
80% Stocks 20% Bonds $69,752 10.20% 31.51% -13.48%
60% Stocks 40% Bonds $63,562 9.69% 24.66% -7.54%
40% Stocks 40% Bonds 20% Cash $54,945 8.50% 19.51% -3.31%
20% Stocks 60% Bonds 20% Cash $44,949 7.80% 17.44% -0.48%
The hypothetical asset allocation portfolios shown above are for illustrative purposes only. They do not represent the past or future portfolio composition or performance of any Franklin Templeton fund and are not intended as investment advice. We suggest working with a financial advisor to see which allocation opportunities may be right for you.

5 Believe Your Beliefs and Doubt Your Doubts
There are no real secrets to managing volatility. Most investors already know that the best way to navigate a choppy market is to have a good long-term plan and a well-diversified portfolio. But sticking to these fundamental beliefs is sometimes easier said than done. When put to the test, you sometimes begin doubting your beliefs and believing your doubts, which can lead to short-term moves that divert you from your long-term goals. To keep from falling into this trap, call your financial advisor before making any changes to your portfolio.

Cancer Update from Johns Hopkins

1. Every person has cancer cells in the body. These cancer cells do not show up in the standard tests until they have multiplied to a few billion. When doctors tell cancer patients that there are no more cancer cells in their bodies after treatment, it just means the tests are unable to detect the cancer cells because they have not reached the detectable size.

2. Cancer cells occur between 6 to more than 10 times in a person's lifetime.

3. When the person's immune system is strong the cancer cells will be destroyed and prevented from multiplying and forming tumours.

4. When a person has cancer it indicates the person has multiple nutritional deficiencies. These could be due to genetic, environmental, food and lifestyle factors.

5. To overcome the multiple nutritional deficiencies, changing diet and including supplements will strengthen the immune system.

6. Chemotherapy involves poisoning the rapidly-growing cancer cells and also destroys rapidly-growing healthy cells in the bone marrow, gastro-intestinal tract etc, and can cause organ damage, like liver, kidneys, heart, lungs etc.

7. Radiation while destroying cancer cells also burns, scars and damages healthy cells, tissues and organs.

8. Initial treatment with chemotherapy and radiation will often reduce tumor size. However prolonged use of chemotherapy and radiation do not result in more tumor destruction.

9. When the body has too much toxic burden from chemotherapy and radiation the immune system is either compromised or destroyed, hence the person can succumb to various kinds of infections and complications.

10. Chemotherapy and radiation can cause cancer cells to mutate and become resistant and difficult to destroy. Surgery can also cause cancer cells to spread to other sites.

11. An effective way to battle cancer is to starve the cancer cells by not feeding it with the foods it needs to multiply.

WHAT CANCER CELLS FEED ON:

a. Sugar is a cancer-feeder. By cutting off sugar it cuts off one important food supply to the cancer cells. Sugar substitutes like NutraSweet, Equal,Spoonful, etc are made with Aspartame and it is harmful. A better natural substitute would be Manuka honey or molasses but only in very sma ll amounts. Table salt has a chemical added to make it w h i te in colour. Better alternative is Bragg's aminos or sea salt.

b. Milk causes the body to produce mucus, especially in the gastro-intestinal tract. Cancer feeds on mucus. By cutting off milk and substituting with unsweetened soy milk, cancer cells are being starved.

c. Cancer cells thrive in an acid environment. A meat-based diet is acidic and it is best to eat fish, and a little chicken rather than beef or pork. Meat also contains livestock antibiotics, growth hormones and parasites, which are all harmful, especially to people with cancer.

d. A diet made of 80% fresh vegetables and juice, whole grains, seeds, nuts and a little fruits help put the body into an alkaline environment. About 20% can be from cooked food including beans. Fresh vegetable juices provide live enzymes that are easily absorbed and reach down to cellular levels within 15 minutes t o no urish and enhance growth of healthy cells. To obtain live enzymes for building healthy cells try and drink fresh vegetable juice (most vegetables including bean sprouts) and eat some raw vegetables 2 or 3 times a day. Enzymes are destroyed at temperatures of 104 degrees F (40 degrees C).

e. Avoid coffee, tea, and chocolate, which have high caffeine. Green tea is a better alternative and has cancer-fighting properties. Water-best to drink purified water, or filtered, to avoid known toxins and heavy metals in tap water. Distilled water is acidic, avoid it.

12. Meat protein is difficult to digest and requires a lot of digestive enzymes. Undigested meat remaining in the intestines become putrified and leads to more toxic buildup.

13. Cancer cell walls have a tough protein covering. By refraining from or eating less meat it frees more e nzymes to attack the protein walls of cancer cells and allows the body's killer ce lls to destroy the cancer cells.

14. Some supplements build up the immune system (IP6, Flor-ssence, Essiac, anti-oxidants, vitamins, minerals, EFAs etc.) to enable the body's own killer cells to destroy cancer cells. Other supplements like vitamin E are known to cause apoptosis, or programmed cell death, the body's normal method of disposing of damaged, unwanted, or unneeded cells.

15. Cancer is a disease of the mind, body, and spirit. A proactive and positive spirit will help the cancer warrior be a survivor. Anger, unforgiveness and bitterness put the body into a stressful and acidic environment. Learn to have a loving and forgiving spirit. Learn to relax and enjoy life.

16. Cancer cells cannot thrive in an oxygenated environment. Exercising daily, and deep breathing help to get more oxygen down to the cellular level. Oxygen therapy is another means employed to destroy cancer cells.

Received 9sen dividend from BJTOTO

Just received 4th interim dividend of 9sen from BJTOTO. BJTOTO is really a cash cow company never failed to give dividend every quarter so far. Hope to buy in more if price dip to around RM4.00, will that happen? we will wait and see. See you........

Bought more HUAAN at 0.545

Have been waiting patiently for it to dip, finally got settle another batch at 0.545. At this moment of time Huaan still look attractive, will buy in more if dip below 0.45 region. This definitely not a holland trip but it neither representing a buy call from me, act at your own risk.

Hong Leong Bank FY pre-tax profit crosses RM1b

KUALA LUMPUR: Hong Leong Bank Bhd recorded a historic pre-tax profit of RM1.01bil for its financial year ended June 30, 2008, up 18% from the RM857mil a year ago.
The bank announced on Monday that after-tax profit rose by 20% year-on-year to RM742mil from RM620.8mil a year ago. Earnings per share (EPS) were 51.19 sen versus 42.4 sen a year ago.
“Total net income crossed the RM2bil mark, ending at RM2,018mil, up 14% year-on-year. This was driven by an 18% growth in net interest income, 11% growth in net income from Islamic banking and 5% growth in other operating income (non-interest income),” it said.
Returns on average shareholder funds increased to 15.3% on an annualised basis, up by 1.5% from 13.8% in FYE June 2007. Return on assets improved by 6 basis points against the same period last year to 1.0%.
For the fourth quarter, net profit was RM133.98mil versus RM172.41mil a year ago. Revenue rose to RM486.37mil versus RM459.74mil. EPS was 9.24 sen versus 11.83 sen. It proposed a 15 sen dividend per share.
On the FY financial performance, Hong Leong Bank said shareholder value creation strengthened in tandem, with returns on shareholder funds (ROSF) advancing 150 basis points to 15.3%, compared to 13.8% reported for the whole 12 months last fiscal year.
Its group managing director/chief executive Yvonne Chia said in the last four years since the group laid out its Business Transformation agenda, pre-tax profits had grown almost two-folds from RM 529mil in FY04 to over a RM1bil.
“Returns on shareholder funds are up 610 basis points from 9.2% in FY04 to 15.3%. This financial result is evidence that the efforts to step up and scale up our organic franchise in liberalising banking sector are paying off. “Our Business Transformation agenda is flexible and adaptive, but the core themes of high performance and sustainable, profitable growth remain consistent. We are on track to achieve our twin goals of a strong domestic core franchise and regional embedment,” she said.

Bought Addtional MAYBULK

Today, bought additional MAYBULK at RM3.50. The reason is simple, i'm increasing my dividend portfolio for longterm holding by increasing Maybulk shares even though i already own some of this shares many years back but no harm buying more as i expect it going to declare 10sen dividend for this qtr. First half net profit RM314million increase by 15%. At current price, PE should stood around 6sen. Quite a fair valuation and an average of 10% Dividend yielding. Of course this does not represent a buy recommendation from me, act at your own risk.

Sino Hua An (BUY)

Effective yesterday, Chinese government has raised the export tax for metallurgical coke from 25% to 40%. No impact on SHA as all of its production is sold domestically.
Share price is at historical low (-27% YTD) vs coke prices which rose 100%YTD to RMB3100/tonne. Accumulate ahead of Q308 results release (22nd Aug) on step-up earnings from new capacity.

IOICORP

Some morning news from broker house :-

IOI’s share price has fallen -30% since our SELL call on Apr08. We now raise IOI to a
HOLD (PT, RM4.80), given our expectation of a short-term technical rebound on CPO
prices, and IOI’s close predictive share price relationship to CPO. We see a short-term
arbitrage opportunity in CPO because CPO has grossly under-performed crude oil (-40%
from peak, vs. crude oil’s 20%), on very marginal changes in fundamental CPO data
points.
However, longer-term, we do not advocate a buy-and-hold strategy on plantations due to
structural issues facing crude oil (global economic slowdown; marginal supply cost of
USD60/bbl vs. USD110/bbl current price).

YTL Power International Berhad

Accounting for 100% of net profit (NP) forecasts
YTL Power (YTLP) NP of RM1,038mn was 12% lower than FY07’s NP. Stripping
off one-off tax credit of RM133mn in FY07, YTLP FY08 NP would have registered
zero growth, in line with our and consensus forecasts accounting for 100% of
forecasts. YTLP declared a final DPS of 3.75sen (tax exempt), within forecasts.
We are keeping a Buy on YTLP for its achievable dividend yield of 10.6% (net).

Overseas ventures soften domestic weaknesses
For FY08, wholly owned subsidiary Wessex Water (2% growth muted by stronger
RM vs £) and 35%-associate PT Jawa Power (13% growth supported by higher
bonus) cushioned YTLP’s domestic core operations weaknesses (down 8%).
YTLP 4Q NP of RM280mn, though improved 1%QoQ, was 5%YoY weaker due to
lower contribution from Wessex Water and domestic IPP (20-24% lower).

FY09 NP should be flat
We expect flat FY09 NP of RM1,027mn. The potential improvements from
overseas ventures would likely be stripped off by the 30% windfall tax announced
by the government (June 2008). IPPs have commenced their first monthly
payment mid-August 2008. We forecast windfall levy of RM90mn for FY09.
Malaysia IPP now accounts for less than 20% of YTLP’s earnings.

On the prowl for new concessions
Despite the regulatory setback in Malaysia, YTLP is still actively bidding for
projects overseas, most recent – Senoko Power, Singapore (estimated price tag
of US$3bn). With YTLP’s current cash balance of RM9.4bn, it has sufficient
ammo for future acquisitions. Our RNAV based PO of RM2.07 offers 22% upside
potential. YTLP is trading at PE09E of 11.5x, a discount to its historical average of
15.2x.

Received Final Dividend of 4.55% T.E From HUAAN

Received 4.55% TE from Huaan. Expecting 2nd qtr result by end of this month. Hopefully profit can reach RM40 million and above else everything to stay stagnant. Can't hope for much at this juncture as the market is too slump for that. I do hope that Huaan, when they increase their production will bring brighter result to the company, this will likely to be happened much later in next year. Am crossing my figure hope the entire work according to my expectation.....be patient folk......

Received 30% Dividend From PBBANK

Just received 30% dividend declared by PBBANK. It has been very generous and consistent that PBBANK giving out dividend in recent years. PBBANK earning has been improving year after year, hope that this can be sustainable in the coming year where a slow down of economic is expected but no matter how solid a share is, when the market turn into bearish mode some how thing will get stagnant as well.
At this stage, is best to keep on collecting dividends :) Many of my stocks are fall due into paying dividend at the moment such as Bjtoto, Panamy, MNRB & Zhulian. I am happily waiting for that patiently. Till then happy trading.

A meeting with the heir apparent for the first time

Yeow Seng is the younger of the two sons. He is involved in both the plantations and property businesses, while his brother takes care solely of the properties.
He will become more involved with investor relations now that Yeo How has departed.

He completed a law degree in the UK, worked at a bank in Singapore for one year and has been working at IOI for 5 years, under the watch of both his father and Yeo How.

My view of him: he is thoughtful, humble and knows the businesses well.

Some of his views:

IOI remains relatively bullish on prices - forecasting prices of RM3,300/t for this year and 2,800-2,900 in 2009.

Previously it was selling forward aggressively, often six months forward; now, it is holding back expecting prices to rebound somewhat from here.

It has largely sold forward at RM3,000/t average to November this year.

On supply/demand, thinks supply from Indonesia is a concern, but demand should hold up due to China/India consumption.

Thinks Malaysian supply will deteriorate next year after a great 2008. Due to cycle of trees and their yields.

Believes biofuels to stay in US and Europe; won't be any change in policies.

Fertiliser costs are up 30% YoY and account for 40% of overall costs. Mostly bought from Russia and China in US$.

On the property side, he expects margins to decrease by 10% going forwards.

Surprisingly, he is seeing a pickup in Johor property sales (they have a township next to the airport).

In Singapore, they are ready to launch their first development in Sentosa, but waiting for the market to get better.

Consists of 150 high end condos. Paid S$460m for land, equivalent of S$1,360/sqf. Construction costs were S$460/sqf. Hoping to get S$2800/sqf for the 3,700 sqf units.

2nd parcel of Sentosa land cost S$1,800/sqf, which he estimates is around the current price.

Foreign shareholding in IOI is now 25-30%.

Best regards,

James Gruber

CLSA Malaysia

Malaysia strategy

Maximum political pessimism

Event
Anwar Ibrahim was charged with sodomy today. He pleaded innocent and was released on RM20,000 (US$6,000) bail and a personal bond. Anwar will be contesting the by-election in Permatang Pauh on 26 August.
Anwar said an enormous injustice is about to be perpetrated. The Prime Minister said he asked the police to go on evidence alone but added: “Another person looking for justice is the victim. You forget Saiful. You think Anwar is more important.”

Impact
We are at the point of maximum political pessimism: The perception will be one of a political crisis, especially if there are demonstrations or rallies. If so, however, we think this is more perception than reality. As we pointed out above, freedom of the press has improved and continues to improve, as has freedom of speech, and so on.
Most investors caring less and less about politics: In our recent meetings with investors, no more than a quarter of our time was spent on politics. Only about half of them were in favour of Anwar becoming the PM, and among the other half, a number of them remember Anwar pre-1998, when he was Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister. We are reminded of what American comedian Will Rogers said once: "The more you read and observe about this politics thing, you’ve got to admit that each party is worse than the other. The one that's out always looks the best.”
Our view remains that we do not think it matters very much who is in power but political stability is the important thing. Important items on an investor’s checklist are:
§ Freedom of press, including alternative medias.
§ Freedom of speech, including that of the opposition leader.
§ Independence of the judiciary, including recent changes.
§ Rule of law, without use of excessive force (Anwar's party, the PKR, had to apologise to a press photographer who was allegedly assaulted by a group of PKR supporters when she was covering a speech by Anwar, and the PKR Youth vice-chief has had to guarantee the safety of the media).

Outlook
Whichever way Anwar’s situation unfolds, we believe that any MPs thinking of crossing over would think twice, given the recent events. As a result, it looks highly unlikely that Anwar will be able to become Prime Minister by 16 September as he had claimed he would be. Furthermore, with Muhiyiddin Yassin withdrawing from the UMNO presidential race, it looks as if the PM is secure in UMNO; he now needs to wage battle on one rather than two fronts.

The people may also be pleasantly surprised on 29 August, Budget Day, to find their economic situation improved and therefore may be less discontent. If that is the case, the political situation will likely improve from here.

Sold YUNKONG-WA at RM0.25

Yunkong registered a 1st Half net profit of 15mil, that is an increased of 196%. Obviously this increased is indeed a positive result where it increase it EPS from a 8.02sen same quarter last year to a 11.88sen. If Yunkong retains it profit for the remaining quarters, it will bring a total of EPS to 26sen that will even enhance the PE to less than 2. Definitely a low PE base on current valuation of steel sector.

I subscribed to the right issue of Yunkong and the right issue offers a free warrant of every 2 shares to 1. As i wrote in my earlier article about Yunkong in which i recommended to take up the offer, if one opted to it then today he/she is really bearing the fruit at current trading price. I decided to unload the free warrant this morning at a price of RM0.25. Steel price is still at high level, i believed Yunkong will be benefited and able to further improve its result till year end. At current price, it is still relatively cheap where my target price is around RM0.80. However, above don't recommend a buy from me, act at your own risk. Till then happy trading......

JULY MARKET COMMENTARY

29th July 2008
“The Oil Factor”

The price of crude oil seems to be now ‘the factor’ affecting global market sentiments and a downward trend in oil prices may be the answer to a trend reversal in the current market sentiments. This month’s commentary focuses some questions on the oil factor.

Oil prices have risen to record levels in recent weeks, with traders in London and New York paying more than $147 a barrel for crude oil at its peak on 11 July. How much has oil fallen and has this been translated to cheaper pump price for the consumers?
Since July 11th, prices have fallen, dipping more than 20% to a low of $121.34 for a barrel on 29 July. Crude oil prices affect the wholesale cost of the petrol and diesel paid for by the major retailers. The good news is a number of those firms have passed on the lower prices to motorists at their forecourts, including our neighboring country, Singapore. The wholesale price of fuel also fell substantially last week. The price of refined diesel, for example, has fallen by 8.3% since it reached an all-time high on 11 July of $1,241 per metric ton.


Why did oil prices fall?
The perception in mid July that the slowing US economy could trigger a worldwide economic slowdown had clear implications on the expected demand for oil. Countries such as India and China depend on the US, Europe and Japan as major markets for their manufactured goods and services. If demand for their goods declines, as is expected, so too will their thirst for the oil and fuel needed to produce the products. Another factor helping to cut oil prices was on the supply side, where there were indications that tensions were easing between oil-producer Iran and the US over its nuclear program. This reduced fears that the supply of crude oil from Iran could be interrupted. Traders also pointed to news that a Chevron oil pipeline in Nigeria had reopened following an attack on it in June.


Are these the only factors that determine oil prices?
No. The price of oil on the international markets is determined by a combination of forces. There are the so-called fundamental factors of supply and demand which are expected to keep prices high in the longer term. On the demand side there is the rising need for oil from the ever-expanding economies of India and China, which need more fuel oil to run their factories and more petrol for a growing number of motor vehicles. On the supply side, there are concerns that it is taking longer than before to develop new oil fields, an average of at least 10 years, so it is difficult to increase output quickly to meet increasing demand.
This is exacerbated by critical shortages of skilled oil engineers, and the limited investments made by many state-owned oil companies who control the vast majority of the world's oil production. In the even longer term, there are worries that we may be reaching the limits of the world's finite oil resources and that production could begin to fall in the decades to come.


Can these explain the sudden changes in oil prices?
Not really, and crude oil is something of a special case. Oil is traded on futures markets, making it more vulnerable to the kind of speculation that can move prices by as much as $5 a barrel in a single day. According to Dr Manouchehr Takin of the Centre for Global Energy Studies this volatility is caused by oil traders. He says that oil traders are making decisions to buy or sell oil on a minute-by-minute basis, and are much more influenced by rumors and stories than their counterparts trading shares on stock markets. "Perception is the key word here because the fundamentals of the oil market don't change every minute". It is the perception of changes in either the demand or supply of oil that drives and fans market rumors.


Is the sudden drop in prices going to keep going?
Well, it’s hard to tell though measures have been put in place for curbing of oil trades. As the US Dollar continues to strengthen, demand begins to soften, and market manipulation is under a more watchful eye of the regulators, crude oil prices can be on the way down to as much as $70 to $80 per barrel by year end. Except for any other uncontrollable disruptions e.g. tropical storms or geopolitical risks, crude oil prices seem to be heading southwards which is translated to higher consumer confidence and better margins for many sectors of the economy worldwide. Certainly, inflation which is a huge concern at this moment for many Asian economies will ease as crude oil prices fall to sub $100/barrel levels. This will translate into more corporate margins, more money in our pockets and certainly a reversal in market sentiments globally.
.

Received 4.5sen Dividend From Genting

Received dividend from Genting - 4.5sen. At this juncture, the best way dealing in bearish market is to concentrate bluechip counters that give consistent dividend. Dividend yielding of more than 7% onward is no doubt a good choice in your selection criteria. This dividend yield will provide a better yield comparing to FD rate at the same time cushion your stock price, it is the best defensive stock that one can consider holding them and lock them in long run like FD. Bluechip that given consistent dividend is a safer bet as these type of counters have solid background which is worth putting your investment money without fear......

Received Final Dividend of 3.6sen and 4sen from Resort and Yilai

Just received the final dividend of 3.6sen from Resort and final dividend of 4sen T.E from Yilai respectively. During bear market is good to source for high dividend yielding stock as a more defensive stock to cushion your losses, it may in turn produce higher return comparing to FD rate in the long run. At current level many blue chips have came down drastically and comparatively the dividend yield looked even more attractive at this level in around 8% - 10% which is far more better than FD rate. This bearish market provide greater opportunity in increasing your dividend portfolio to a larger portion if one is really looking for more. I am still sourcing and waiting as for now no need to act hastily, just be patient and buy in stages at the right time. Divide your bullet in few bucket and lock them in gradually. Till then happy trading.

Bruce Lee - Just For Laugh

Bought IOICORP at RM5.80

Can't resist myself by buying back IOICORP at RM5.80 this morning which i disposed at RM7.15 some months back. Market condition is definitely still in the loom of downtrend due to many factors. Same strategy buying in in stages and keep very long term, this is the approach i am adopting. Happy to see that PBBANK is declaring 30sen dividend again with it 13% increase in profit. It may be tough in coming second half of 2008 in which economy may be slowing down due to global oil price hike, US recession, high inflation rate (abt 6-7%) and political uncertainty. I foresee that market will be drifting down further and the impending increase of interest rate by BNM will be a concerned where, by how many basis points will they implementing ? If it marginal say 25 basis points, i think the impact will not be that great to the market. Hope that this can be carried out in a proper and planned manner compare to increase steep oil price in a sudden without proper planning of curbing inflation by our government.

The Effects of Time

Got time to read this...perhaps? BEAUTIFUL:)

My wife called, 'How long will you be with that newspaper? Will you come here and make your darling daughter eat her food?

I tossed the paper away and rushed to the scene. My only daughter, Sindu, looked frightened; tears were welling up in her eyes. In front of her was a bowl filled to its brim with curd rice. Sindu is a nice child, quite intelligent for her age.

I cleared my throat and picked up the bowl. 'Sindu, darling, why don't you take a few mouthful of this curd rice? Just for Dad's sake, dear'.

Sindu softened a bit and wiped her tears with the back of her hands.
'Ok, Dad. I will eat - not just a few mouthfuls, but the whole lot of this. But, you should...' Sindu hesitated. 'Dad, if I eat this entire curd Rice, will you give me whatever I ask for?'

'Promise'. I covered the pink soft hand extended by my daughter with mine, and clinched the deal. Now I became a bit anxious. 'Sindu, dear, you shouldn't insist on getting a computer or any such expensive items. Dad does not have that kind of money right now. Ok?'

'No, Dad. I do not want anything expensive'. Slowly and painfully, she finished eating the whole quantity. I was silently angry with my wife and my mother for forcing my child to eat something that she detested.

After the ordeal was through, Sindu came to me with her eyes wide with expectation. All our attention was on her.

'Dad, I want to have my head shaved off, this Sunday!' was her demand.

'Atrocious!' shouted my wife, 'A girl child having her head shaved off? Impossible!'

'Never in our family!' My mother rasped. 'She has been watching too much of television. Our culture is getting totally spoiled with these TV programs!'

'Sindu, darling, why don't you ask for something else? We will be sad seeing you with a clean-shaven head.'

'Please, Sindu, why don't you try to understand our feelings?' I tried to plead with her.

'Dad, you saw how difficult it was for me to eat that Curd Rice'.
Sindu was in tears. 'And you promised to grant me whatever I ask for.
Now, you are going back on your words. Was it not you who told me the story of King Harishchandra, and its moral that we should honor our promises no matter what?'

It was time for me to call the shots. 'Our promise must be kept.'

'Are you out of your mind?' chorused my mother and wife.

'No. If we go back on ourpromises, she will never learn to honour her own. Sindu, your wish will be fulfilled.'

With her head clean-shaven, Sindu had a round-face, and her eyes looked big and beautiful.

On Monday morning, I dropped her at her school. It was a sight to watch my hairless Sindu walking towards her classroom. She turned around and waved. I waved back with a smile. Just then, a boy alighted from a car, and shouted, 'Sinduja, please wait for me!' What struck me was the hairless head of that boy. 'May be, that is the in-stuff', I thought.

'Sir, your daughter Sinduja is great indeed!' Without introducing herself, a lady got out of the car, and continued, 'that boy who is walking along with your daughter is my son Harish. He is suffering from... leukemia'. She paused to muffle her sobs. 'Harish could not attend the school for the whole of the last month. He lost all his hair due to the side effects of the chemotherapy. He refused to come back to school fearing the unintentional but cruel teasing of the schoolmates. Sinduja visited him last week, and promised him that she will take care of the teasing issue. But, I never imagined she would sacrifice her lovely hair for the sake of my son! Sir, you and your wife are blessed to have such a noble soul as your daughter.'

I stood transfixed and then, I wept. 'My little Angel, you are teaching me how selfless real love is!'

The happiest people on this planet are not those who live on their own terms but are those who change their terms for the ones whom they love...

Defensive stocks the choice picks

CIMB: Investors should go for high-dividend counters
PETALING JAYA: Stocks with high dividend yields continue to provide some form of protection to investors who are seeking defensive stocks amid the current market and political concerns, said CIMB Research.
CIMB has picked its top five high yield stocks- DiGi.com Bhd, Gamuda Bhd, Public Bank Bhd, Telekom Malaysia Bhd and Wellcall Holdings Bhd.
The stocks were expected to give a dividend yield of close to double-digit percentage and above in financial year 2009 and were rated “outperform”, it said.
In its recent research report, CIMB said: “We believe that the high dividend yields of these companies are sustainable thanks to strong cash flows and balance sheets.”
The report said DiGi is an outperform stock that offers both defensive and growth elements in an uncertain environment.
“We believe DiGi will pay above its free cash flow yield of 7% to 9% in the next few years to optimise its balance sheet,” it said, adding that key catalysts for growth includes potential capital management moves, a positive impact from mobile number portability and a greater competitiveness with 3G.
Assuming that DiGi pursues a net debt and earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation of 1 to 1.5 times in FY08, shareholders are expected to get a return of RM3.20 to RM4.65 per share.

Despite rising raw material prices and weaker long-term earnings visibility for the construction sector, Gamuda remains an “outperform.”
Given its strong cash support of about RM300mil per annum from its concessions, Gamuda offers a solid three-year earnings compound annual growth rates of 31% and the highest dividend yield of above 10%.
In addition, the sale of Gamuda's 40% stake in Syarikat Pengeluar Selangor Holdings Bhd and 80% stake in Gamuda Water Sdn Bhd estimated at RM1.5bil to RM2bil would result in a potential special dividend.
Public Bank remains CIMB's top-pick thanks to its strong fundamentals that includes a high return on equity of 20%, fastest loan growth, non-performing loans ratio of 1% and the lowest cost-to-income ratio in the banking sector.
CIMB is maintaining a “trading buy” on Telekom as it believes the shares have not priced in the likelihood of a special dividend in coming quarters.
TM is believed it would consider a special dividend after receiving TM International Bhd's loan repayment to TM, said CIMB.
Due to rising production costs, rubber hose manufacturer Wellcall's group earnings is expected to remain strong as there are further signs that major players in the rubber hose industry are outsourcing their orders to smaller players such as Wellcall.
Currently, Wellcall offers more than 11% dividend yield at its current price.
It pays out 50% of its earnings backed by its strong net cash position of RM28mil.
DiGi, Gamuda and Wellcall are in a good net cash position and enjoy robust earnings growth, while Public Bank is pursuing a 100% payout ratio and TM has surplus cash, said CIMB.

Sold PBBANK (1295) at RM10.20

Political uncertainty and market heading south, this trigger my decision in off loading PBB for the time being. Will definitely buy back this giant when it dip, hope that i did not make the wrong decision by getting rid of this golden goose that really lay eggs. Market sentiment is just bad, it might drift down further. Feel a bit uneasy while selling PBB, in fact i have been keeping this giant for almost 6 years. The capital appreciation, bonus and dividends received thus far has giving me an approximately 500% gain if calculation is not wrong, that indeed a handsome gain considering an average of 83% per year. Wow...So, all the best and good luck to you guy. I am staying out at the moment.

Just For Laugh

An elderly lady was standing at the railing of the cruise ship holding her hat tight so that it would not blow away in the wind.

A gentleman approached her and said, "Pardon me, madam. I do not intend to be forward but did you know that your dress is blowing up in this high wind?"

"Yes, I know," said the lady. "I need both my hands to hold onto this hat." "But madam, you must know that you are not wearing any underwear and everything is exposed!" said the gentleman in earnest.

The woman looked down, then back up at the man and replied, "Sir, anything you see down there is 85 years old. I just bought this hat yesterday!"

Why did he cry? A True Story

A true story that happened in China。 A bus full of passengers was travelling on hilly road.

Midway through the journey, 3 armed thugs was eyeing the pretty woman bus driver. They forced the bus to stop and wanted to have fun with the driver! 。

The woman driver naturally shouted for help, but all the rest of the passengers just kept quiet. Then a weakly looking middle-aged man came forth to ask the 3 men to stop; but he was instead beaten up.

The man was very angry and appealed loudly to the other passengers to stop this uncivilised act but nobody responded. And the driver was dragged by the 3 men to the bushes nearby.

An hour later, the 3 thugs and the ruffled driver came back to the bus and the driver is ready to drive off again.... "Hey you, get down the bus!" the woman driver shouted to the man who tried to assist her earlier on. The man was bewildered and said: "What's wrong with you? I was trying to save you just now and was I wrong in doing so?" "You save me? What have you done to save me?"

The driver retorted, and a few of the passengers were quietly laughing away. The man was really angry. Even though he did not have the ability to save her, he should not be given this treatment at all. He refused to get down the bus and said; "I paid for the trip and I have the right to remain."

The driver put on a grim face and said: "If you don't get down, the bus will not move on." What was unexpected was that the passengers, who were oblivious to the barbaric act of the thugs just now, suddenly woke up and in a concerted effort asked the man to get down the bus saying: "You might as well get off the bus, we have things to attend to and cannot afford anymore delays!"

A few stronger passenger were indeed trying to drag the man down the bus The 3 thugs were smiling knowingly at each other and commented: "We must have done a great job to the lady!" After much ado, the man's luggage was thrown out the bus window and he was ousted out of the bus.

The bus started on its journey again. The driver straightened up her hair and turned the radio to full volume. The bus was reaching the hill top and will go downhill after a turn. The right side of the bus was facing an unfathomable cliff. The speed of the bus increased gradually. The driver's face was very calm with both hands on the steering wheel. Tears started to swell in her eyes.

One of the thug realised something amiss and said to the driver: "Drive slowly, what are you trying to do?" The driver said nothing, but the bus travelled faster and faster. The thug tried to grap hold of the steering wheel, but the bus shoot towards the cliff like an arrow leaving the bow.

The next day, the local paper reported a tragic accident at the 'Tiger Taming Hill' region. A medium sized bus fell through the cliff and the driver and the 13 passengers were all killed. The man who was chased down the bus saw the paper and cried. Nobody knew what was he crying about and why he cried! You know why he cried? If you were in the bus, would you stand up like the man did? We need people like him to create and sustain a normal society! When we treat others with our hearts; we will receive warmth and love from people!

Buying and selling signal

Wednesday June 18, 2008
This article by Ooi Kok Hwa, an investment adviser and managing partner of MRR Consulting, tackles some basic skills needed to detect the buying and selling strength of a stock price.
THE price movement of a stock is dependent on the demand and supply of the stock, which in turn is influenced by the buyers’ buying interest and the sellers’ selling interest.
Every buyer or seller has different purposes when entering into a trade. The followings are general “rules”, which provide us with some hints on whether the stock price will probably go up or down.
Investors should not view these “rules” as a foolproof method that will hold true all the time. There are certain occasions that market manipulators might be using these “rules” to mislead the general public.
Rule 1: Buyers are showing small orders and sellers are showing big orders. However, the stock prices are holding quite well – buy signal.
When we want to purchase a stock, we will call our remisiers to check on buying or selling orders on the stock. A lot of selling orders with only a few buying orders on the stock may imply that the stock price would come down.
However, if the stock prices are holding quite well, it could mean there are some net buyers accumulating the stock.
The reason for this is buyers may refuse to show their buying orders to attract sellers to sell at the buyers’ buying price.
Showing high buying orders may delay selling interest, as sellers will wait for the buyers to buy at their selling price. Hence, it is a “buy” signal if we notice the above rule on any stock.
On the other hand, if buyers have big orders and sellers have small orders while the stock price continues to drop, it might be a “sell” signal that this stock has some big sellers that are not willing to show their selling orders but they need to sell the stock now.
Showing big selling orders may cause panic on the stock. Hence, to sell at higher prices, sellers will try to hide their selling orders.
Logically, if a stock has a strong buying interest, the stock price should go up instead of come down. Hence, the weakening stock price may imply that sellers outnumber buyers.
Rule 2: The overall market is weak but your stock price is moving against the overall market trend – buy signal.
In a down market, if a stock that you own is inching up steadily despite the overall weak stock market sentiment, this may imply that there are some net buyers on this stock.
We view this as a “buy” signal where buyers are eagerly accumulating the stock in spite of the weak market. In most instances, the stock price will move higher the moment the overall market sentiment recovers.
In contrast, if the overall market is moving up but your stock is being beaten down, it is a “sell” signal. Normally, insiders are aware of certain crucial bad news that is still not available to the market yet.
Rule 3: Stocks carry a lot of bad news and are trading at high volume but stock price remains stable – buy signal.
Sometimes a certain stock is facing huge bad news but the stock price is holding on quite well. Normally, it may imply that buyers are not worried about the market concerns on this stock. The current stock price may have discounted all the bad news.
In contrast, if a stock, despite having all the good news in the media, continues to see its price decline, this is a “sell” signal that shows there are certain sellers who have some concerns over the stock, but the overall market is still not aware of the news.
Ooi Kok Hwa is an investment adviser and managing partner of MRR Consulting.

Subsidy cut the better option

Thursday June 12, 2008

COMMENTBy KHOO KAY PENG
The recent restructuring of fuel subsidies shocked the nation. It seems like a drastic move but it is better than spending RM40bil a year on oil subsidies when there are other pressing socio-economic needs.
LAST Wednesday, Prime Minister Datuk Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi shocked the country by announcing subsidy cuts for both petrol and diesel. His main critics slammed the decision as a move to spike whoever would take over from him.
A Pakatan Rakyat leader surprised at the decision reckoned that Abdullah had forfeited his option to call for snap polls should there be crossovers.
From this observation, it is clear that Abdullah did not put politics above the interest of the nation.
It simply does not make economic sense to spend RM40bil a year on oil subsidies when there are other pressing socio-economic needs. Every year, almost half of the fuel subsidies go to private cars, more than 75% of which are single occupant.
If the Government can deliver on its promise to improve and enhance the current sloppy public transport system, this money can be used to fund other more pressing needs such as essential food items, education, affordable housing and healthcare.
Again, the decision made was correct and timely, but the manner in which it was done robbed it of the full credits it deserved. Only weeks ago, Abdullah and his deputy Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak had given assurances that subsidy cuts would be deferred at least until August.
Flip-flop in the decision making process did not help to consolidate people’s confidence in the government’s management of rising oil prices and inflation.
Considering our current socio-economic condition, a gradual cut of subsidy is a better option. The people and industries need time to adjust to the new environment. These industries have operated in an artificial cost structure supported by subsidies since 1982.
However, I agree with some economists who observed that it would be better for Malaysia in the long run to adjust its subsidy structure now, before we reverse our position to become a net importer by 2014. Moreover, we cannot continue to subsidise the rich and foreigners.
With the subsidies significantly reduced, the Government must now deliver on its promises to reduce wastage and streamline the bureaucracy.
All government expenditures must be made accountable and transparent to the public. Abuses of public funds reported in the Auditor General’s report must be curbed. The Government must show more teeth in fighting corruption.
Ironically, the question is no longer whether the Government can or cannot deliver on its promises. For its own political survival, Barisan Nasional has no other choice but to perform.
Inevitably, the manner in which the cuts were made courted severe criticism from several Pakatan Rakyat (PR) top leaders.
Parti Keadilan Rakyat de facto leader Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim described the retail petrol price increase as “wanton in size and callous in effect”. He charged at the way the profits of Petronas were disbursed, and criticised the “wanton waste in government expenditure”.
Touted by the foreign press as the “prime minister in-waiting”, Anwar pledged, “I will resign immediately” if a PR government was unable to roll back the subsidy cuts.
DAP secretary-general and Penang Chief Minister Lim Guan Eng criticised the move as “economically insufficient and socially unjust”. He claimed that the new structure “does not deal with ensuring that fuel subsidies fulfil the intended objective of helping the poor instead of benefiting the rich”.
But surely the Government, including a PR-led one, cannot continue to support a subsidy structure which is unsustainable once the country becomes a net petroleum importer.
The promise to reverse the subsidy cuts is an attractive one. But for how long can the subsidies be maintained before our limited resources are eaten away?
Anwar has to justify why we should continue to pay through our nose so that six million drivers can continue to enjoy the subsidies.
If the increase of 78 sen is too drastic now, can Malaysians accept a RM2 rise by 2014 should the fuel price continue to climb?
By using the money saved from the subsidy cuts on other pressing needs, the Government is addressing the basic needs of the poor. On the contrary, the continuation of the fuel subsidies is detrimental to the interest of the poor, and benefits only the upper echelons.
On this part, the enforcement bodies must work tirelessly to contain unnecessary price increases triggered by the higher retail fuel price, and not merely pay lip service to its intention to manage inflation.
If Anwar wants to position himself as a strong candidate for the premiership, he must prove that he has a plan to do better than merely proposing to reverse the cuts.
It is more productive for his coalition to propose an alternative strategy on how to control retail fuel prices, to prepare for the reverse of position to being a net importer, to improving quality of life, to ensuring finite resources are channelled to food security and public transport rather than to organise and support street protests.
Can the PR do better? We are listening.
Khoo Kay Peng is a corporate consultant and an independent political analyst.