Tuesday, November 20, 2012

My Limit Is Up !!!

 
 
1. BJTOTO - Make contra gain on this buy selling first at RM4.34 and bought them back at RM4.28. ^^
 
2. ALAQAR - Bought in at RM1.33. ^^ KWP is selling a lot. Taking this opportunity to grab some in. ^^
 
3. WCT-WB - Bought in more today at RM0.24. ^^ Hope for the best.
 
4. FABER - Congratz to those still holding. ^^ Try to buy at 1.37 eventually cancelled my queue and switch to ALAQAR. HOpe i make the right choice. ^^
 
5. With today's purchases my limit is up !!! NOw is just a waiting game from me. Hope for the best. hng's exposure is still in maximum level, he is yet to reach ultra-max as yet, still have more room to whack more. ^^ :) Good Luck hng.
 
6. Watch List - BJTOTO, ALAQAR, WCT-WB, IGBREIT, FABER, KULIM
 
7. Good Luck all cyber mates. ^^ May the best price be yours always.

31 comments:

Teng said...

Congratz Hng on your Faber.

CK-Lucky you dont sell yesterday

hng said...

Bought ultramaximum WTK, all at 97sen

Teng said...

Hng

Anything interesting in WTK?I bought more at 97.5 yesterday evening before closing

I bought because at 99.5 sens yesterday,it is 52 weeks low

hng said...

Sold off all Faber at 1.51, realize contra gain

karimaero said...

Hng,

Using this opportunity to average down WTK......still holding from my last trade.... ; )

hng said...

Teng, karimaero

Upcoming WTK financial result should be much better judging from almost 75% increment in its FFB yield and 20% increase in log production.

hng said...

About WCT-WB, the exercise price will be adjusted from 2.50 to 1.85, Similarly, another WCT-WC also adjust its exercise price from 2.75 to 2.04. The detail and formula for these adjustment is stated in its circular (page no 20 and 21) to shareholder in conjunction for upcoming EGM next Friday to seek approval for 3 bonus and 4 WCT-WD for every 20 exiting share.

After WCT ex-all theoretical price of 2.33 (based on share price of 2.70) there is BIG gap discount of 23.5sen between current WCT-WB of 24.5sen + exercise price 1.85) - WCT ex all price of RM2.33. The arbitrary discount almost 100% different is too hard to ignore or is it too good to be true!?

hng said...

The calculation of new exercise price involve two step:

Step 1: New exercise price after Bonus share

Exercise price = S x [A/ (A+B)]

= RM 2.50 x [823m/(823m + 123.4m)]
= RM 2.17

Step 2: New exercise price after step 1 and after free warrant

Final exercise price= S-[(Sx NI)/M]
= RM 2.17 - [ (2.17 x 164.6m)/ 1111m)]
= RM 1.85


Remark:
A = The number of WCT share on entitlement date (exiting no of share 823m)

B = The number of WCT to allotted to entitlement shareholder (bonus 3 for 20 = 123m)

NI = The number of new WCT to be issue assuming full exercise of warrant (5 free warrant for 20 share = 164.6m)

M = The enlarge share assuming full exercise of all outstanding warrant (exiting share + bonus 3 for 20 and full exercise new warrant 5 for 20, 823m + 123m + 164.6 = 1111m)

hng said...

I hope it is correct too, so that there will be real gap between WCT ex all price and WCT-WB from current less than 1% premium to more than 10% discount.

Discount/premium
= [(warrant price + exercise price)- underlying price] /underlying price

Current scenario
premium 0.9% = [(0.235 + 2.50)-2.71] /2.71

Ex-all scenario
Discount 10.5% = [ (0.235 + 1.85) - 2.33] / 2.33

ck5354 said...

someone start to see the VALUE of wct-wb.

WCT-wb up but mother flat.

Bravo Hng for your analysis.

But how come:
WCT-WC is only 2.33 - 2.04 = 0.28 if based on 0 premium. WCT-wc now trade at 0.44.

So all should sell WCT-WC and buy WCT-wb.

hng said...

ck5354

WCT-WC still have 'TIME' value, able to command premium

ck5354 said...

Hng how you work out the 2.33 ex price after bonus??

If based on 3 bonus for 20, 2.70 - (3/20)*2.70 = 2.30

This one excluding the free warrant.

Teng said...

Hng

WCT ex bonus+warrant of 2.33 is based on reference price of warrant WD at 0.5 or 1 cent( correct me if I am wrong). So after ex,WCT will trade at below 2.33 because WD will trade >1 cent.

Teng said...

Hng/CK

WCT-WB still worth more than 25 sens even taking into consideration of higher valuation for WD. My 6 sense

hng said...

ck5354

Bonus 3 for 20,

(20 x RM 2700) /23 = 2347

Free warrant 4 for 20

(4 x 10 sen )/23 = 17sen

Ex-all theoretical price = 2330

hng said...

Teng

The warrant price intrinsic value already take into account in theoretical ex-all price, by taking into consideration differentiate sum between upcoming WCT-WD exercise price and theoretical price

Teng said...

Hng/CK

I see Hng already use WD reference price of 10 sens. So 2.33 is ex price for WCT after bonus and free warrant

Gark said...

Hng,

your theory is correct, however there is still a risk of selldown after BI, but i think the selldown will be minor as WCT-WD will be about 0.40/5 shares = 0.08 sen.

Anyway tonight will be clearer as WCT will announce Q3 report and BI, BW ex date.

Gark said...

And worse come to worse is the negative premium of 10% is not realized in WCT-WB, then have no choice but to subscribe and then sell the shares..

hng said...

WCT Q3 result should be within expectation, the surprise will be only record in Q4 result due to revaluation surplus recognized from its newly completed Paradigm mall in kelana Jaya

The potential catalyst by year end are WCT ability to secure few more contract like a MYR700m hospital project in East Malaysia and MYR2b worth of earthworks at the upcoming Tun Razak Exchange property project by 1MDB

hng said...

Gark

WCT-WB fate rely on WCT performance after ex-all, which affect by trading pattern between EPF and LTH. However, if WCT indeed secure at least another contract by year end, any share price rally will send skyrocket profit in WCT-WB as the gearing is 10x

Gark said...

But somehow I am thinking, if everyone can count the price is 50% under valued, how come not much people bid up the price? I doubt it is ignorance....or they are waiting for the BI ex date and confirmation?

hng said...

Gark

The adjustment in WB and WC exercise price will be announce soon after the EGM.

I believe the formula calculation is right as it derived from law stated in WB and WC term and condition that protect the interest of both warrant holder. These WB and WC are issue NOT free as WD but issue at cost 25sen and 35 sen respectively

Gark said...

Yes, I check the deed poll for the WCT-WB and WCT-WB which state that the price is to adjusted for any bonus issue, private placement and further issue of warrants/iculs.

WCT WB price got adjusted from RM 3 to 2.50 after the issue of WC (from bond listing). Using the same formula.

So I am quite confident the price will be adjusted to 1.85.

However, the market did not react to it yet...

ck5354 said...

WCT just approved the bonus in today EGM.

hng said...

Gark

Wait and see now, patience is the key if wanna to reap windfall profit

hng said...

Sold off Bjtoto at 4.33-4.34, free up more margin line.

Bought more WTK at 93sen, further average down holding cost

alwayswin111 said...

Congrats to all FABER winners

hng said...

Swap all today free margin up margin from Bjtoto and Faber, bought ultramaximu WTK at 93sen, further average down holding cost

cheeheng said...

ah,here comes Amedia...:)

cheeheng said...

hng

u keep buying WTK,what is yr average cost?

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