Saturday, January 12, 2013

Top Up More UOAREIT ^^

1. UOAREIT - Bought more UOAREIT at RM1.40. ^^ DPU likely to announce next week.

2. YTLPOWER - Bloggerhng said...
Teng

Agreed, YTL power sell off its power plant to 1MDB is best solution to no only get rid of political risk, but realize value on its power plant.

Based on 1212MW, fixed assets: 990m and profit 250m, the selling price could be worth RM 5-6b.

The amount is derive from mixed formula: RM 4.6m/MW; 20x PE and 5.8x fixed power asset est RM990m.

The above parameter is based on 1MDB acquire Genting Sanyen.

Conservatively,lets assume the power plant sell at RM5b, YTL Power should be able to recognized around RM4b net gain, translate to increment of 55sen/share.

YTL Power could then opt for special dividend or capital repayment via par value reduction from 50sen to 10sen.
January 11, 2013 10:11:00 PM GMT+08:00
 
3. Watch List - MBFHLDG, UOAREIT, IGBREIT, YTLPOWER-WB, WCT-WB, CCM
 
4. Good Luck. ^^
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50 comments:

tcg82 said...

MK Land plans to build 3,000 affordable homes in Cyberjaya next year to leverage on the Group’s experience in the segment. Also, its founder and chairman Tan Sri Mustapha Kamal Abu Bakar said that MK Land intends to sell 2000ha to get the cashflow to undertake future projects.

As expected, we believe MK Land will be involved in the 1Malaysia People’s Housing Programme (PR1MA) to support the government’s initiative. Nonetheless, we understand the plan is still at preliminary stages and furthermore, the earnings contribution will not be substantial due to the low margins in the segment. The plan to dispose 2000ha (mainly the landbank in Perak) is consistent with the Group’s plan to streamline the assets. We also believe the Group is looking at disposing the land in Setiawangsa and few plots in Damansara Perdana which will raise c.RM300m. Maintain OUTPERFORM and RM0.80 TP.

Source: PublicInvest Research - 20 Dec 2012

hng said...

Teng

1. Genting control Genting Sanyen 97.7%

2. Genting Sanyen control 100% stake in Mastika Legenda.

3. Mastika Legenda control 75% Kuala Langat power plant, 720MW

Therefore, Genting effective stake in Kuala Langat power plant is 73%. Based on selling price to 1MDB at RM 2.5b (including RM208m), Thee net selling price is RM2.3b for Genting 73% effective stake in power plant.

Therefore the whole deal value 720MW at RM3.2b. Based on kuala Langast power plant 720MW gas fired net assets 547.4m and gross profit at RM 164m, the selling effective value 720MW at about RM 4.6m/MW

hng said...

1BestariNet is a project initiated by the Malaysian Ministry of Education (MoE) and carried out in partnership with YTL Communications. Under the project, 10,000 primary and secondary public schools in Malaysia will be equipped with high-speed 4G Internet access and a virtual learning platform, providing fast and reliable Internet connectivity as well as access to a world-class Integrated Learning Solution known as The Frog VLE.

In today sinchew newspaper, YTL claim there is already more than 10m Yes ID available in all school, offering 5m students, 4.5m parents and 0.5m teacher all integrated under virtual learning platform (VLE) and will be able to access The Frog VLE for free on Yes Network under the MOE 1BestariNet initiative, but will cost 2.5sen/MB if to surf the internet

hng said...

Recall Franchis Yeoh claim that Yes need at least 100,000 subscriber to breakeven. It only need 0.1% of total 10m 1Bestarinet Yes 1D opt for data plan (2.5sen/MB) to surf internet, Yes wimax already can profiting.

Teng said...

Hng

While most people agreed YES has excellent speed,their package is way too expensive for high data users. Their 10GB is RM168 vs RM108(Digi), RM128( 20GB),RM88(5+15GB)

YES should repackage their internet plan

hng said...

Seem MK land due to rebound

hng said...

Teng

Sorry, i quoted wrongly, Yes need at least 1000,000 (1m) subscriber to breakeven. So, it need to attract 10% of total 10m 1Bestarinet Yes 1D opt for data plan (2.5sen/MB) to surf internet, in order to turnaround wimax.

Teng said...

Hng

Once telco hit 1 mim subscriber,profit come in immediatey. Once with subscribers 300K or more,telco will breakeven after few years( guess depreciation is less after few years)

P1 with less than 500K last year reported profit. P1 offer mainly data without sms. YES offer all including you will get a phone number

hng said...

Teng

I pledge high hope of YTL Power-WB now, as it is my largest stock holding in portfolio, more than 60% capital and margin line concentrate on it. I'm banking on 3 scenario now

1. Divestment on YTLP power plant to 1MDB, realize awesome gain, payout special dividend and stock re-rating

2. Privatization by YTL through share swap, preferably 1 for 1

3. Turnaround Yes wimax

Teng said...

Hng

It will be good if MK Land has JV with reputable property developer( eg SP Setia) in Damansara Perdana,or sold part of the land.Their marketing team is not doing enough

Maybe their properties sell by itself due to its location?

Teng said...

Hng

I also hold sizeable YTLPower WB.

For YES,I think next quarter loss will be narrowed,and breakeven for following quarter. I think loss at communication division is about RM60million in recent quarter

Teng said...

YTLpower PLLLSSSS move up further

Hope my decision to buy back WB last friday is right

hng said...

Teng

You have my full support, lets our 'Huat' can come as early as before CNY

Gark said...

I also have some YTLP-WB at abp 0.38 but the abp for my YTLP shares is 1.90...

Wonder should I switch from YTLP to YTLP-WB but realize some losses?

For every YTLP share sold can buy 4 YTLP-WB...

hng said...

Teng

MK land already sold some land to Mammoth Empire group, which is of its currently in the midst of development for its flagship project Empire city and Empire tower in Damasara Perdana. Over the next 5 year, beginning 2010, MK land will gradually received cash for its sale of land.

Teng said...

Hng

My record on YTLPower WB was like coaster.Made good money after WB hit 60cents,but lost most when I bought back at 58-59cents.Sold 58cents batch and swithc to WR with bigger quantity.

hng said...

Gark

I think bet on YTLP WB is better than YTLP now, as there is almost no premium and no cum dividend + enjoy 4x multiple gain

Teng said...

Hng

I know Damansara Empire project but not aware land was bought from MK

At least I know they did the right thing. No wonder their gearing is so low now.Remember gearing used to be higher

hng said...

Teng

MK land must engage reputable developer to co-develop Damasara Perdana and enjoy mutual benefit

cheeheng said...

hng
ok,i join u on the Ytlpowr wb bandwagon.Bot in at 44.5

hng said...

Make share swap, sold CCM at 97sen, realize about 1.5sen loss, and swap margin to increase stake in YTL Power-WB at 44.5sen

cheeheng said...

hng

man,ur betting BIG on YTLPOWR WB. :O

hng said...

cheeheng

Ya! i've feeling these time at least i can reap 6D on it

Teng said...

Hng

5D is good enough for me

Regardless privatisation materialise or not,YTLP is under value now.Lower dividends payout last few quarters was due to huge capital investment in YES

cheeheng said...

hng/teng

i'll settle fr 4D..muahahaha !

yh said...

thks hng

make my decision
bought ytlp max @ 450

Gark said...

Sold all YTLP @ 1.65, realized loss. Increased YTLP-WB 4x the units @ 0.45... :)

I hope something positive coming up...

Teng said...

Gark

I think is good move. Now almost zero premium

I also suffer loss when I sold YTLPower WB at 41. But I bought more YTL-WR at 17-19( forgot actually costing).So my cost for YTLP WB is about 38-39 cents

Gark said...

My YTLP-WB cost is at 41.5 cents..

But suffer several K of loss of YTLP bought in 2009-2011.

Hope to make back the difference. :)

hng said...

Hope the news can release as soon as possible, so that we all can 'Huat Huat' early. Too eager to wait for these 30-50% potential windfall

Arthur said...

Hng,

Do u think YTlpowr could be affected by the upcoming 13GE or do u think the share price will boom even before that can happen?

Gark said...

If they are selling to 1MDB, they would want to sell before GE, otherwise after GE if change Govt, they might be able to sell anymore.

Gark said...

sorry "not be able"

hng said...

Gark

Agreed, YTLP should conclude deal to sell power plant to 1MDB before GE to avoid unnecessary political risk.

horse said...

Sold my 2nd batch of uoareit at 1.41 with 1sen profit.

ck5354 said...

Hng for you:

CCM:
写稿前和朋友聊天,听到他和一位很成功的投资者的对话,颇为有趣,忍不住在此节录下来,让读者反思。
话说敝友对投资致富有感而发:“看来我得捉住几个超凡的投资,才可成为超级富裕。”该投资者含有深意的回应他“反过来做也无不可。”
不是吗?当你超级富裕时,也很有条件抓几个超凡的投资。不但如此,当你超级富裕时,就算你做了很傻的投资,身边的人也未必敢明说,甚至曲意奉承。
我们前周做了一个投资,上周也同样,买了1000股马化工(CCM,2879,主板工业产品股)(每股95.5仙)。购买这只的动机一定会惹来一些争论,不过不要紧,读者看了下来的事情,会觉得更具争议性。
我们先将历史转回两个月前,那时风平浪静,马化工股价在1.20至1.30令吉。在11月尾,马化工提醒凭单持有者,其凭单将在12月26日届满,要行使转换权得附上1.36令吉的转换价。
此时,公积金局展开了疯狂的沽货,硬生生的把股价压到85仙,股权从9%以上降到5%以下。
由于马化工股价向来稳定,长期站在1.20令吉以上,加上政府机构持股超过80%,一个国民投资公司(PNB)就控制了70%,因此,公积金局这意外的分道扬镳,让许多股东措手不及,账面上亏损了不少钱。
也有一些投资者见猎心喜,在1令吉时大手笔买进,不过很快就买到手软或弹药耗尽,只能做壁上观。
公积金局是否要清到一张不剩我们不晓得,因为它持股少过5%,下来的买卖已无需呈报。
公积金贱卖国投贵买
我们好奇于它到底为甚么对这只股票如此唾弃,但在凭单12月26日届满时,国民投资公司做了一件让人刮目相看的举动。
它将手上所有5283万凭单转换,还在公开市场买进100万股,正式和公积金局还以颜色。
我和健诚左思右想,就是想不通国民投资公司的深谋远虑:当马化工股价只有85仙时,国民投资公司有必要用1.36令吉转换吗?
国民投资公司的股权已有62.3%,固若金汤,转换后增至70.6%,看不出对控制权有甚么分别。真要增加股权,不如把转换凭单的资金省下,转而建议一个出价1.36令吉的全面收购?
这样一来,凭单持有人没转换的理由(因为不可能用1.36令吉加服务费来换1.36令吉),而其余1.19亿股的股东在85仙跌得焦头烂额时,有个救世主出来扶他们一把,还不快快接受?
别说多8.3%的股权,说不定多用9000万令吉(加上转换凭单原本要用到的7200万令吉),就此成功将马化工变为私有。
只是,这样一来,可能有违政府执力于爱心、关怀的社会吧?
所以,早先我说的超级富翁所做的投资,有时看来很傻,但谁敢吭声?说不定傻的是我们这些看不懂的人。
不过,两个政府机构在这一次行动缺少交流,一贱卖一贵买,总有一方是错的吧?!
我们决定站在大股东PNB那边,向它看齐。而且,我们虽然捉不到底,但96仙的成本也显着比PNB的成本低很多。
下期我们再看看PNB的持股历史,和马化工的财务

Arthur said...

Gark

Thank for the clarification =)

ck5354 said...

Based on the Life span of Undeleted ink, they have to hold the election before March.

Else they have to buy the INK again.

Can you see money in YTLPOWER?????

Chocoanut Production said...

most lightly they don't want to use the ink again, sure last minute decision like the last election

hng said...

ck5354

Thanks,hope more people aware of CCM

Jason Sim said...

ck5354,

You wrote the article? :)

Jason Sim said...

ck5354,

You wrote the article? :)

ck5354 said...

No Jason, not me.

Bei tahan look at wct-wb price.

David said...

MBf why the selldown? Bad news coming?

Gark said...

WCT-WB pricing is continuously closing the gap.

Mother 2.38, Therhetical Price is 2.38-1.85 = 0.53

WCT-WB now selling at 0.46.. only 7 cent difference.

If convert now, profit margin is only 0.07/(1.85+0.46) x 100% = only 3%??

If like that better sell the WB? Any thoughts on this?

Teng said...

YTLPower closed at its highest today.Hope tomorrow got more uump

hng said...

Teng

Ya, if YTLP momentum continue, tomorrow likely to retest 1.68 resistance and if stay above 1.72 even better

hng said...

YTLP seem wanna to catch up YTL share price, so to facilitate share swap 1:1 !?

hng said...

Bought more MBF Holding at 1.16

Eelyn Soon said...

I'd allow my profit to run further for WCT-WB. I think there would be more to come though the discount gap is closing up. So far, my chart still have not shown any sell / exit signal yet.

Will act accordingly. Btw, i do not think i would convert to the mother for now. I guess what they were doing in the past was to attract shareholders to convert to mom, as many see the attractiveness on the mom, only then later they close the gap by stagnanting / reducing the mom's price and this son moves up. Right now the mother seems like it is turning down from my chart, though it has not broken below 2.35 level.

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