Sunday, September 29, 2013

Weekly Trades : 29/9/2013


TRADES DATED : 24/9/2013

TRADES DATED : 25/9/2013

TRADES DATED : 26/9/2013

1. WATCH LIST - YTLPOWR-WB

2. Good Luck. ^^

54 comments:

hng said...

YTLP buyback 74% of today total volume, range 1.76-1.79, increase stake by another 0.12%, cumulatively to 1.91% in treasury stock.

YTLP buyback speed seem getting stronger now, to reach target 3.5%, i think YTLP may only need another 14 trading days

Tan said...

What will happen after they stop share buyback? Without support the price will probably slide back, as was previously the case.

Teng said...

After 10% buyback limit,company can seek shareholder approval for another 10% buyback

hng said...

Buyback 80% of total today volume, range RM 1.78-1.79, increase another 0.16% stake, cumulatively 2.07% in treasury stock now.

horse said...

Teng,

Hope the coming AGM will have another proposal of 10% buyback. ^^

hng said...

玉楼金阙:如何长久? (5)杨忠礼电力退场应惠己及人

财经评论

2013-10-02 10:04

8月28日那天,杨忠礼电力(YTLPWR)做了一项前所未有的动作,它把2.5亿库存股一笔勾销。

是的,既不是派给股东也不是卖回去公开市场,而是把这笔库存股完全注销了。这几乎是3.4%的股份,若以当时市价1.55令吉来算,可是3.88亿令吉的价钱。

是什么原因促使杨忠礼电力改弦易辙,不好象往年一样将股票当股息派回给股东呢?

从会计的角度来看,这的确是处理库存股的最佳方法之一,不过人非草木,看到白花花的金钱一瞬间化为乌有,心疼在所难免。

或许是杨忠礼电力的董事想通了,一味的回购股票,再派出去,之后再回购,又再派出,似乎对每股盈利没什么裨益。

不是吗?好不容易强化每股盈利,转眼间因库存股派出了,盈利又再稀释。周而复始,对公司而言,好处不长久。反而注销了库存股,股票数额从此减少,增加每股盈利的努力终于落实。

迅速回购减少流通

更深一层的体会,股票减少之后,每位股东的权益还是一样,但如果大股东要私有化,就无需考虑库存股如何处理的问题。

公司快马加鞭,一经注销库存股,马上又开始股票回购,在一个月的时间内,库存股回到1.36亿,约2%的水平,行动快速惊人。这回的成本更高,股价提升到约1.80令吉。

大股东杨忠礼集团的持股不变,换句话说,如此迅速的回购股票,只是把市场流通量迅速的减低。

能够和公司回购股票抗衡的,似乎只有公积金局这个硬把子。

不过,只见其持股也迅速在减少之中,由一年前的9.5%,减到目前的6.8%左右。

杨忠礼集团的持股约是55%,加上家族持股,该有60%;而凭单更是控制了75%,预料随公司积极回购股票的行动,将导致其股权继续增加。

同时,公司把股息减到最低程度,正是逼使小股东将周息率不再吸引人的杨忠礼电力逢高卖出,找别的高股息股票来顶替。

那么,什么时候才是出手私有化的最佳时机呢?我想应该是快了。

公积金局减持配合

和大股东的持久战,一向是小股东吃亏,因为大股东可以享有董事费和薪水,小股东却只能靠股息或资本增值赚钱。

只是我们不明白,何以实力强大的公积金局这回配合杨忠礼电力,一卖一买。

难道公积金局不相信杨忠礼电力前景可期?抑或是杨忠礼电力的低股息“惩罚”见效,公积金局必须卖掉一些股票,以弥补失去高股息的错漏?

行文至此,欣闻丹斯里杨忠礼夫妇欢庆60周年钻婚纪念,一时佳话,贺喜连连。

我们深受丹斯里的情深义重所感动,也希望恩泽所及,对不离不弃的小股东一样情义深重,不巧取豪夺。

虽然在商言商,但行年八十有多的丹斯里,还有什么不曾拥有?

若让追随左右的小股东有一个令人满意的退场计划,突显情义,纵然百年之后,依然名留青史,为后人津津称善,60钻婚如此长久之余,添一喜满;到70白金婚之时,广邀杨忠礼集团股东如我等一齐衷心祝贺,何乐而不为?

•陈金阙 专业财务规划师

hng said...

Buyback record number of share, as much as 85% of today total volume, increase stake by another 0.24%, cumulatively record at 2.31% in treasury stock

hng said...

With such as record speed in accumulating, to exceed 3.5% target stake, YTLP buyback need by just another 7-10 days only.

hng said...

Engulf all seller at 1.80, i think today volume will be even higher in afternoon session than yesterday. Lets hope it could breaking another record in afternoon session, and stay at least 1.79. Well done YTLP sbb...:)

lg said...

hng, what does sbb means?

btw, what do you think of RHB's downgrade of Puncak. Do you think its time to pick up again?

lg said...

sbb = share buy back?

hng said...

ya, sbb = share buy back

Teng said...

Toda YTLP SBB should match yesterday qty of about 10-11million

hng said...

Teng

Expect YTL sbb to exceed 2m volume today. the highest ever so far, accumulate 0.3% in single days i think. Should boosting it treasury to more 2.6%

hng said...

Buyback 92% of today total volume, increase another 0.31% stake, cumulatively 2.62% in treasury stock.

Teng said...

Amazing. 21Millions share buyback

Teng said...

17 millions YTLP share from warrant exercise listing Oct 7

horse said...

wow..17millions shares listing on Monday. ^^
Hope the buy back can be just absord them without any problem. ^^

Good Luck all. ^^

cheeheng said...

To all cyberfriends,check this out.

http://www.jbhouseforsale.com/mui-berhad-the-hibernating-giant/

http://www.jbhouseforsale.com/pan-malaysia-corporation-4081-an-overlooked-extremely-undervalued-stock-in-klse/

http://www.jbhouseforsale.com/my-recent-trip-to-agm-of-pan-malaysia-corp-4081/

hng said...

HwangDBS Research Highlights - 4 Oct 2013

YTL Power; Hold; RM1.78
Price Target: RM1.70; YTLP MK
Yield compression

Dividend cut to conserve cash for acquisition. New acquisitions are crucial to cushion against earnings drop after expiry of Malaysian PPAs in 2015. Maintain HOLD with TP of RM1.70

Q: Dividend cut to conserve cash for acquisition.
A: Dividend cut, but resume share buyback. So far, already buyback 2.6% and if take into account previous cancellation of 3.4% treasury share, total share buyback accumulate up to 6%, which is equivalent to 6% earning enhancement alike 6% dividend yield. Hwang analyst simply ignore current trend in YTLP, which aggressively buyback share via open market, as much as 80-90% of total volume trade is absorb by YTLP share buyback.

Q: New acquisitions are crucial to cushion against earnings drop after expiry of Malaysian PPAs in 2015.
A: IPP is going to expire on 2015. But the total contribution from IPP is just PBT: RM 178m just about 11% of YTLP earning. In addition, main culprit, Yes Wimax, record even higher loss than IPP, at RM 269m. If Yes Wimax can turnaround and start contributing earning in next 2 year, it is most than offset the loss of IPP earning after expire

hng said...

HwangDBS

Please redo analysis, based on YTLP share buyback record, including previous 250m treasury cancellation, totaling 250m + 186m = 436m buyback share, assuming YTLP average cost at RM 1.70, it already spent RM 740m. If these amount of cash RM 740m is opt for dividend payment, it give rise to 10sen /share already.

Thus, it YTLP is cum 10sen dividend, what is likelihood its share price trade, should be at least RM 2.00 peg 5% net yield.

However, all these analyst seem ignore it or simply favor cash dividend payment compared to share buyback despite share buyback and subsequent cancellation is much more better, as it enhance earning permanently by reduce total number of share.

Teng said...

CheeHeng

Rumors started last week that TS Khoo may privatize some of his listed companies in Msia

Teng said...

HDBS hold call mainly based on no dividend payout.Some companies like to keep cash for future growth( eg Oriental,KSeng,Genting).Their dividend yield is pathetic

cheeheng said...

Teng
yah,rumors that Khoo
may privatize PMCORP at 30 cents.
PMCORP is like a mini KSENG.Lots of cash and valuable assets.

Teng said...

This is a follow u p to my earlier posting on the Parliamentary question on YTL's 1Bestari project.

We now have an official answer from the Minister of Education that YTL does not have to pay any rental on the unipoles that they instal in national schools.

Here are some other relevant the basic facts:

1. There are 10,000 national schools in Malaysia.

2. If a telco puts up a unipole tower on land or on a building, it has to pay on average RM2,500 a month rental to the owner/landlord.

3. YTL will use these school unipoles to transmit their YES communication network.

By using the 1BestariNet project, YTL will potentially save up to RM300 million a year in rentals. RM300 million that should be paid to the Malaysian government as rightful revenue!

Here is the maths: RM2,500 a month rental x 12 months x 10,000 schools = RM300 million a year.

The Minister says that YTL is not charged any rental because the schools needs the unipoles in order to enjoy the broadband service. Hmmm...I don't need a unipole in my garden to get internet access. I am sure none of you need to do that also. So why put up unipoles in schools? What if a unipole crashes down an injures schoolchildren?

The Ministry is either extremely stupid to flush RM300 million a year down the drain or is this another case of under BN, Malaysia apa pun Boleh?

I have put in Parliament (for the next session) a new question on how long is the YTL concession. If YTL gets a 50 year concession, they could save up to RM15 billion.

Stay tuned for more revelations in about 1 to 2 months time..or when the Ministry decides to give me an answer..if at all.

hng said...

Teng

No every school need to build up transmission tower. As long as these school, primary/secondary/kebangsaan or jenis kebangsaan school are adjacent to each other within 4km radius, only one tower enough to cover all. I think to maximum is about 3000 towers is needed.

If you look at the sites, the tower is build at the corner edge of the school playing field and is gated around.

The concessionaire of 1 Bestarinet is 5 year tenure, extendable by another 5 + 5year total 15 year.

About the rental fee, its depend on provision in the concessionaire, as whether ot not YTLP bid and won the 1 bestarinet at lowest cost + highest coverage offer and is compensated by rental free for its tower transmission.

hng said...

Buyback 78% of today total volume, range 1.79-1.81, increase another 0.19% stake, cumulatively 2.81% in treasury stock now.

hng said...

I think there is no more EPF selling now. It could probably has stop already.

Current seller could be from other GLC shareholder that holding below 5%, such as Skim Amanah Saham bumiputera 4.18%; Value cap: 3.27%; ASM/ASN: 3.6%

hng said...

About YTLP and chromebook

http://m.youtube.co/watch?v=OjZAjqxC-xY&desktop_uri=%2Fwatch%3Fv%3DOjZAjqxC-xY

hng said...

Chromebook Lab Launch at SJK(C) Choong Wen

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xYCzP3URD_E

alwayswin111 said...

Cheeheng
Are you still holding MBMR-WA? Am thinking of collecting some if it breaks out of 0.715

horse said...

NO posting from me this week.

SO far bought YTLP-WB at 0.545 and sold back at 0.55 on Thursday.

horse said...

Scalp trades :-
Sold 0.56 and bought back 0.555. ^^

cheeheng said...

alwayswin111

ya,still holding some,not much though.Average cost is 70 cents.Like hng,holding more YTLPOWR WB.

cheeheng said...

YTLPOWR WB GOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!

cheeheng said...

YTLPOWR’s technical picture looks positive as the share price is approaching the long-term uptrend channel resistance and previous high @RM1.86. In fact, buying interest seems to be gaining traction as all indicators are mostly biased to the upside with active trading volume. Should the uptrend resistance is taken out in a decisive manner, we suspect YTLPOWR may form a new bullish picture as the share price may potentially end its 3 years down-trend direction since Nov-2010. Meanwhile, a protective support is pegged at RM1.77 (20-day SMA).

Source: Kenanga

horse said...

YTLP-WB sold at 0.585. ^^

Bought back at 0.58, 0.565 & 0.56 respectively. ^^

ck5354 said...

KUALA LUMPUR: YTL Power International Bhd stepped up its share buyback programme, purchasing 7.19 million shares on Wednesday for a total of RM13.218mil.

A filing with Bursa Malaysia showed it bought the shares from the open market at prices ranging from RM1.82 to RM1.84.

The recent purchase saw its cumulative net outstanding treasury shares as at to-date at 237.798 million shares or 3.34%.

Teng said...

15 million YTLPower share will be listed Oct 14( next monday)

hng said...

Teng

The more warrant converted, the more better for warrant to close the gap faster.

hng said...

With YTLP successful breakout major resistance level a 1.85, more upside is expected with next target RM 2.00.

YTLP sbb is now getting more difficult to accumulate share as seller become more greedy now, or realize that once sell, its one way direction, never ever able to buyback on weakness later as there is only accumulation, no distribution back. All treasury share could be subject to second round of cancellation.

Teng said...

Hng

Yes.Warrant holder convert to mother,sell in open market which will be absorbed by YTLP sbb. Then they will buy WB again

horse said...

Wow. Ytlp continue to rock, so does Ytlp-wb.^^
This time will wait for a while. ^^
Congratz to those still holding.

Congratz hng^^

horse said...

Hng,

This time round it is for real I think for YTLP. Hope the privatization can really come true and couple with capital payment. ^^

horse said...

I think is safe to buy YTLP-WB as there is quite a big discount there. Convert them to mother also can make the arbitrary profit there.^^

Good luck all^^

alwayswin111 said...

congrats to all ytlp0w-wb holders. Hng rocks....

lg said...

what is the conversion price again?

hng said...

horse

Laughing all way to bank loo :)

lg said...

Assumption : YTLP hits RM2.00, one buys WB at today's price @ 0.600.
Conversion price = 1.21+0.62 = 1.83
Sell the share at 2.00 back to market = earn 0.17.
Is the above calculation correct?

cheeheng said...

lg

yes,correct.

hng said...

Today, shark wann to capitalize on YTLP sbb and wan to take opportunity for the breakout, but their effort turn down by YTLP strategy to buy as more volume at lowest cost possible.

Today, YTLP down 2 sen, so can accumulate more share at lower cost without interference from shark to mark up share price too fast and WB up 1sen, move more closer to mum, narrowing gap to just 2.5sen, less discount.

Result YTLP and WB are winner vs. shark loser

hng said...

buyback 54% of today total volume, range from 1.82-1.89, average at cost at 1.87, increase stake by another 0.17%, cumulatively at 3.59% in treasury stock now.

hng said...

In 2012, YTL corp selldown YTLP-WB from 91% to 66.74% and later opt for 1: 15 restricted offer for sale at 20sen, resulting YTL corp stake in YTLP-WB down 7.8%. The majority of YTLP-WB stake now is in direct control by Yeoh Family.

The motive of doing so is for Yeoh family to have more control over YTLP through its WB, the cheaper entry cost.

Based on last year shareholding, Yeoh family control YTL corp 49.11%, which in turn control YTLP 45%. Which mean Yeoh family effectively only control 22% stake in YTLP. However, Yeoh family itself also have direct stake in YTLP about 7.7%, therefore the effective control stake is 22% + 7.7% = 29.7%.

With the selldown and offer sale of YTL stake in YTLP-WB, Yeoh family entitle the most, which effectively transfer YTL initial 91% ownership in YTLP-WB to Yeoh family, allowing Yeoh family to have direct stake in YTLP-WB at much lower cost. Based on YTLP-WB volume, it make up about 16% of enlarge YTLP share capital. Lets assume, Yeoh family currently control more than 80% in YTLP-WB, if fully converted, Yeoh family can increase effective stake in YTLP by another 13%.

In addition, YTLP current ESOS of 10%, exercise price for first tranche is at RM 1.49 and second tranche is at 1.65, Yeoh family entitle about 87% of the ESOS with remaining share by independent director.

All in all, Yeoh family iF fully convert their WB and exercise ESOS share, control effective YTLP share 22% + 7.7% + 13% + 8.7% = 51.4%

With current share buyback 7% so far, but already cancel first 3.5%, and if continue to reach 10% and all cancel later, Yeoh family effective stake could further increase to 57%

By controlling high effective stake in YTLP, Yeoh family is preparing to privatize Yboth YTLP and YTLP-WB via share swap with YTLcorp at much higher ratio, example 1 YTLP: 1.6 YTL and 1 YTLP-WB: 0.8 YTL. With high direct stake in YTLP and YTLP-WB, Yeoh family ultimately still control enlarge YTL corp+YTLP

hng said...

I still believe privatization is the ultimate goal. Yeoh known well the turnaround of its Yes Wimax is happening soon, contribute by massive 1BestariNet project which is already completed in Sept, deriving just maintenance and operation fees + licensing alone already make up RM 500m pa for next 5year and its renewal for another 5 + 5 year, total 15years concession. The turnaround from loss of RM 260m in Yes Wimax to breakeven or even start making handsome profit will send YTLP skyrocket high. Bear in mind, YTLP share is trading around RM 2.20-RM 2.50 in last 2year back and share slump till now due to main culprit loss in Yes Wimax. If Yes Wimax + 1BestariNet turnaround now, its just normal for share to recover back to above RM 2.20.

Its Yeoh style to move ahead to privatize YTLP at cheaper price now than wait for research to re-rate YTLP to higher value, Just like what happen to YTL cement, just few month before posting quantum leap in profit, YTL privatize it first.

Please link below website to have serious look on what YTLP have done for its 1 BesteriNet that utulmate will serve 5.5m student, 500k teacher and 4.5m parents

1. About YTLP and chromebook

http://m.youtube.co/watch?v=OjZAjqxC-xY&desktop_uri=%2Fwatch%3Fv%3DOjZAjqxC-xY



2. Chromebook Lab Launch at SJK(C) Choong Wen

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xYCzP3URD_E

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