Monday, July 30, 2012

CIMB Screw MSM-CA Warrant Holders :(



1. MSM-CA - Here we go again, CIMB manipulated the MSM share price by getting it price to settle at RM5.03 at last minute. With this MSM-CA settlement price to be settled at 0.1248. :( My cost on MSM-CA is at 0.125. My loss is at 0.0002 almost breakeven, think i will lose my brokerage fee as well. :( Small bruises. I have to avoid CWs for time being. :( As far as i know none of the CWs issuers are gentlemen enough to let the demand and supply to take it course just like HKSE. The worst being OSK, remember KNM case? SC needs to step in to do something here or regulate the MM from being manipulating the mother share to protect the CW holders else it is just an unfair game. Will boycott CWs for time being. Lucky it is just a small bruises from me.

2. MSM - I grab MSM at RM5.03 last minute by jumping queue and offering at a price of RM5.06. ^^ Hoping of jacking the price up last minute, LOL !! but the selling forces are just tremendous from MM. :( Hope i can recover some losses here that i incurred on MSM-CA. hng, what a coincident that you also grab the same price as me, we have something in common? I must say we both have a great brain that think alike. ha ha ^^

3. OSKPROP - Ex-dated price at RM1.05. Which mean the right OR would likely be around (1.28-1.05) * 10 = 2.30 to 3.00.

4. GENTING SP - Lucky me. LOL !!! Bought in S$1.23 last Friday and today garner 9sen at S$1.32. ^^ :)

5. To all newbies, please ask the expert here if you are in doubt or not sure pertaining to share investment. If you read this blog quietly and buy quietly, any losses incurred you have yourself to be blamed. Don't accuse anyone has mislead you for your action. We are here sharing our thought and exchanging information so that everyone would be benefited. Take responsibility on any penny that you invested in. Good Luck.

79 comments:

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Teng said...

I don't believe this. It is scam

horse said...

If such a thing really exist, many will be multi-millionaire. ^^

horse said...

Teng,

Hope YTLP-WB tomorrow got show. :)

Good Luck.

alwayswin111 said...

Horse
Congrats on your gen sp. I don't trade CA , ignorant on that.
Have not made any purchases lately. Thinking of buying IJM tomoro , cos it seems to have a flag formation.
GENTING and Airasia looks good too.
Poor Alex Lu had a bombarding from one reader this afternoon. Hope this hopeless guy do not visit your blog.

Teng said...

Horse

Ya,hope YTLPower-WB goes to 60cents level. My average cost now is 59 cents( I sold my last 2 batches at 61,so is kind of contra gains)

hng said...

horse

I thought warrant holder won't get anything back if the final settlement price is below their cost of purchase!? In MSM-CA. the final settlement is 12.48sen, lower than closing price of 12.50sen, to my understanding, CIMB no need to pay back single sen to warrant? That is reason why investment bank make every effort to press down underlying price in order no to payback anything.

Call warrant holder can either profiting 0.5 + 12.50 capital if final settlement is 13sen or risk of losing total 12.5sen capital if final settlement price is anything lower than 12.50, in this case is 12.48sen. Correct me if i'm wrong.

Teng said...

Hng

MSM-CA holder will get back 12.48 cents. Holder will lose everything if 5-day average price is below exercise price. For MSM-CA,exercise or reference price is RM4.5 with ratio of 5

While CWs are risky,it can be rewarding. My friend who bought 1 of Mudajaya CW at 1 cent,and it went up to 8 or 9 cents within 2-3 days.Could not remember detail

Issuer/Investment bank will make annoucement to Bursa after 5 pm today

hng said...

Teng

Oh i see, i thought warrant holder will lose everything. In that case it still worth of betting, warrant holder either loss 0.5sen or gain 0.5sn. Thanks for your clarification.

Teng said...

Hng

But there are still many cases where CW holder lose everything.I normally buy at 2nd or 3rd day of 5-day price averaging.If there is enough discount,I may buy some.Or discount is good enough to bet on it

hng said...

Teng

So next time, try to avoid those call warrant trade 2-4sen, as their chance to lose out everything is much higher than those trade above above 10sen, right

Teng said...

Hng

2-4 cents call warrants is normally out of money.Good exmaple is GENM-CU where exercise is 3.68,ratio 5. Issuer only pay you if 5 day average calculation is >3.68

But there are some CWs out of money also trade at high price. IJM-CJ which expire soon has exercise of 5.48( IJM now 5.20 or less)but trade at 8 cts. IJM-CJ expire soon.

Teng said...

Hng

OSKProp ex price-Before ex,it was 1.28.After ex,theoritical price is 1.05. In this case,Bursa use OSKProp Warrant value at 5 sens?

hng said...

Teng

Yes

[(RM 1280 x10) + (RM1000 x 1) - (RM 50 x 3)] / 13 = RM 1050

By the time OSK property -WA listing, the indicating price will be start from 5sen

hng said...

Teng

OSK property start to normalize its price now, to at least stay above its right price of RM 1.00. Off course the higher the better, so that upcoming -OR can get even trade at premium instead of discount.

Teng said...

Hng

For those who bought OSKProp cum right at 1.30 level,they only make money if OSKProp ex is 1.04/5 and OR at min RM2.7

hng said...

Teng


You're right, but if one will like to increase further odds to profiting on these exercise, can swap current share to upcoming OR on the listing, if OR trade at <2.70 and share at 1.03

hng said...

Selling OSK property at 1.03, realize contra gain

hng said...

Teng

Your Maxis rebound after several day press down. Good pick

Derick said...

Hng/Teng

Thanks for expplanation .

Teng said...

Hng

I first bought 5-6 months ago ( RM5+)and sold for profit.Two weeks ago bought at 6.45 and sold 6.65. So buying back at 6.30-6.35 is gains for me

40cents nett dividen is main reason I buy maxis

alwayswin111 said...

Hng
I remember way back you used to buy maxis . And made big money on that too. Am I right?

hng said...

alwayswin111

I've give up to follow Maxis since it trade above 6.00. However, with its dividend of 40sen, yield is still commendable at 6.3% nett and still one of the highest yield among big cap. However with valuation at PE 15x, upside also limited

Teng said...

Hng/Alwayswin111

Upside for Maxis is limited.Mobile users in Msia already saturated.Don;t think telcos can grow their subscribers 15-20% per year anymore.But with current subscribers of 10 millions for Maxis,cash generated is good for them to pay good dividens

hng said...

Sold off all Ann Joo, all t 1.63, realize all contra profit

hng said...

Sold back long term holding KSL at 1.40, realize slim paper profit.


Still its WA at cost of 34.2sen

alwayswin111 said...

Hng, Teng
Sold REDTONE 0.36 . Made some money. My only trade today. Still waiting for opportunity to sell KOSSAN and IHH higher.

Teng said...

Hng

Sold annjoo 1.63. Only managed to sell 2/3 at 1.64following day after buying last week. Hate when you queue to sell 100lot,99k matched

hng said...

alwayswin111

You have your IHH? IPO or bought after listing, at what price?

Teng said...

Bought hapseng 1.72

hng said...

Waiting to buy Mudajaya

hng said...

Bought YTL at 1.84

ck5354 said...

latexx crazy TO again at RM 2???

Teng said...

Hng

99% you can sell for intraday gains

ck5354 said...

sold wtk at 1.20

hng said...

Bought YTL Power-WB at 585.sen

alwayswin111 said...

Hng
Bought IHH after listing at 3.12

alwayswin111 said...

Teng
I think gloves sector looks like in play. Have been tracking this sector . Most of them waiting to resume uptrend.

Teng said...

Alwayswin111

Do not track gloves for some time,esp natural rubber shot up high 2 years ago. I heard Kossan and hartalega are most efficient .Topglove has volume advantage

hng said...

Sold off all YTL at 1.86 and YTL Power-WB at 59sen, realize all intraday gain

alwayswin111 said...

Teng,hng
Maxis HAIO moving nicely.

Teng said...

Alwaysin111

Still keeping Maxis for its dividend.Anyway will sell if it move up further

hng said...

alwayswin111

I still keep some Haio at 2.02. But q at 2.08 no done :(

hng said...

alwayswin111


Your IHH manage to stay at it highest level 3.20.

Maria^^ said...

hey guys may i ask how did u guys calculate those warrant price?

[(RM 1280 x10) + (RM1000 x 1) - (RM 50 x 3)] / 13 = RM 1050

any1 cn explain d above formula ? jus wanna learn thx alot

horse said...

hng,

Teng is right on CWs settlement price. CW holders will get ZERO if the underlying share price is lower than exercise price of a particular CW.
In MSM-CA case the underlying mother share 5 days average price is at 5.124 still higher than exercise price of 4.50, so i still get back 0.1248 the final settlement price.

Thanks Teng for the explaination. ^^

horse said...

Today no trading for me. :(

Maria,
I already explained in my earlier post on oskprop. This is how it work out.

Before ex oskprop = RM1.28
Ratio of Right Issue = 10:1
Right exercise price = RM1
Free 3 Warrants
2 Bonus Issue

After ex oskprop = RM1.05

From hng's formula :-

(1280 x 10) - this is your holding of oskprop
(RM1000 x 1) - this is the right exercise price
(RM50 x 3) - this is the Free warrants
1050 - this is the ex-price of oskprop.

This is just a simple calculation, just stick with this one and apply it for your next counter if you happen to come across.

horse said...

Divide by 13, because you will get 13,000 oskprop eventually.

alwayswin111 said...

Hng
Hope we can both sell tomoro at higher price. your haio and my IHH

Maria^^ said...

thx alot for d explanation horse =)

horse said...

alwaywin,

You are very cautious. In fact it is good at this juncture, i am trying to reduce as well.

hng said...

Bought Ann Joo at 1.61

hng said...

Bought more Ann Joo at 1.60

karimaero said...

hng

bought Ann Joo at 1.60 also but not much..... My first try following experts here : )

hng said...

As expected, MSM start to rebound after purposely press down by CIMB. Could it back to initial 5.20, wait and see. Current price already siting on handsome paper profit

hng said...

horse

Your blog seem getting more and more newcomer. Could be score as one of the famous investing blog already, Congratulate. :)

hng said...

karimaero

Ann Joo just record another new low level at 1.59!? In fact, its lowest level over than past 3year.

Could Ann Joo reverse its Q1 result loss? it remain a question till release it upcoming Q2 by these month.

hng said...

Among the catalyst for Ann Joo are

1. Secure steel plate supply contract by mega construction project, namely extension LRT and MRT

2. Secure customized high grade steel contract by Petronas for its Oil and Gas project

3. Newly completed blast furnace commence commercial production in Q2 and contribute maiden revenue to Ann Joo

4. Input cost stabilizing namely scrap metal and molten iron

5. Reduce cost of production through reduction in electricity cost from its state of art RM 650m blast furnace

6. Absence of inventory write down

hng said...

and last but not least

7. Tight up with new strategy partner whom have expertise in manufacture high grade steel product. It could be through equity stake sell via private placement at least 20%. With that Lim family effective stake in Ann Joo will be diluted from 66% to 55%

karimaero said...

hng,

Thank for the info. You definitely do your homework very well. Need to start doing that.

Any lead or website that we can source this kind of info?

hng said...

karimearo

Bursa, google search, annual report, company website, bizweek etc

Teng said...

Hng

I was reading report that China is dumping steel for oversea market because slow down in domestic market.But upcoming LRT and MRT project may provide some catalyst for steel maker

Teng said...

So fast,queue for Annjoo at 1.59 matched some.Still has some in the queue

Teng said...

Sold Maxis at 6.46 for contra gains

Teng said...

YTL at its two month low

hng said...

Teng

YTL under selling pressure, a lot of seller, will consider buying some now depending on market sentiment

ck5354 said...

q some ytl at 1.80

hng said...

Bought YTL at 1.80

Teng said...

Hng

Bought YTL at 1.80

hng said...

YTL at 1.80 is also conversion price for its exchange bond. hopefully it is the floor price, and YTL will start share buyback from now

Teng said...

Hng

I see.You suspect seller is from those bond holder?

hng said...

Bought more YTL at 1.80

hng said...

Teng

I think so, otherwise whose got such big volume. Unless, is EPF again, when YTL price at 1.40, keep selling, but when YTL price at 2.00, keep buying.

ck5354 said...

CLSA - ffm is selling in YTL

Teng said...

Hng

Did you get Mudajya yesterday or today?

Teng said...

Selling pressure now is on YTLPower as well.But my queue for YTLPower-WB was matched at 59.5 sens. Mother down,but son up

Teng said...

Queue for YTLPower-WB at 60 also done.Horse and I bought this at 58.5 level

Teng said...

Sold YTL at 1.82.Realise intraday gains. I love YTL group today

hng said...

What a narrow escape, sold off all YTL at 1.82, realize good intraday gain

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