Saturday, July 21, 2012

Theoretical Ex-Price For OSKPROP



1. OSKPROP - Sold all at RM1.30. :)

Let's work out the theoretical price for OSKPROP :-

OSKPROP (10) = RM1.30 * 10 = RM13
Right (OR) (1) = RM1
Free Warrant (3) = 0
BI (2) = 0

Estimated Theoretical Ex-Right Price (10) = (13+1)/13 = RM1.077
Estimated Theoretical Right (3+3) = (3.23 - 1.00) = RM2.23 (*Did not factor Warrants in, if one were to estimate 20% warrant price of the Theoretical Ex-Right Price, it would be around 21sen, that would mean estimated 21 * 3 = 63sen extra) 

2. PAVREIT - Sold all at RM1.31. :)

3. Watch list - OSKPROP, PWROOT, YTLP-WB, IREKA, IJM

4. Good Luck !!!

74 comments:

Teng said...

Horse

I think OSK Property OR worth more than 2.23 as warrants worth about 25-30 cents.

Not manage to sell my OSK Property Friday.I queued at 1.32 in morning session. Afternoon I was busy,only had time to monitor for 1/2 hour. Bought Hapseng and Pwroot. Maybank investment server under maintenance Friday evening to sat evening. So I could only knew my buy queue done last night.

horse said...

Teng,

I did not factor the warrants in. Never mind just an estimate.

Why don't you change broker, since Maybank give so much of trouble.

Public has quite a stable system, i think Hong Leong Investment also not bad.

Derick said...

Teng & Horse

I am using hong leong not bad :-) thanks for showing us the oskporp OR price ?

Teng said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
hng said...

Bought Ireka at 67-67.5sen

hng said...

Since horse already work out the ex-right and potential intrinsic value of its OR, let me highlight OSK property projects development.

1. Atria Damansare redevelopment: Its was acquire for the cost RM75m, subsequently demolish to redevelop into new 5 storey shopping Gallery (500,000sft) + 2 SOFO 19 storey tower atop, GDV 1.0 bilion. The 2 tower SOFO already sold out for 270m, but retain shopping mall for future recurring return to be ready by 2014/15. What is interesting is OSK property has appoint Beijing Urban construction firm to develop the the whole Atria for RM 230m, which mean, OSK essentially will fund the construction through progress billing from SOFO for entire Atria or get its shopping mall for 'free'.

hng said...

2. Suria Damansara.

Its is develop by JV company between OSK property and PKNS (51:49). It has 100arces and so far already 50% developed. Its current launched Zaria Superlink (42 unit, 24x85, 3795sqt, 1.2m onwards) and Sutera square (2, 21/2 storey shop office) already sold out and latest The Vale, Townhouse (98 unit for 833k onward) is also selling well. Again the interesting point is that OSK also derived management fees from these JV company and has revised the T&C since last year from 2% of PAT (profit after tax) to 3% of GDV (gross development value, an increase of 150% passive income.

hng said...

3. Mirage Residence

Its is 25 storey tower, low density with only 102 unit, freehold, selling at 1.0 onwards, with total GDV 175m, complete by 2015. The unit has smaller size (850-1800sft) to cater for affordability market and every 3 level equip with sky garden terrace. So far the take up rate already exceed 60%.

Teng said...

Hng

Is Mirage going for 600PSF?Remember I did visit Mirage website and was surprised by the price

Teng said...

Hng

600PSF was last year price.Now probably higher

hng said...

4. Mirage by lake

Located at Perdana lakeview west, enjoying beautiful towering skyline of Putrajaya lake east. The 12.14 acrs freehold land to be develop into 2 phase, the 413 high end condo (1084-1361sqft), GDV 350m already sold out, ready by 2013. The second phase consist of total 68 landed villa is still selling now, so far exceed 30% take up

Teng said...

Mirage by the lake was the project I was interested in last year ( or 2010?) but price was high but as Hng said,sold out.Pity young graduates who want to buy decent home

hng said...

5. Pan'Gaea

The most ambitious project by OSK property, total 16 acres, GDV 1.2bilion, to be compelte by 2016) The project dividend into several phases.

Phase I, The Paragon: 2 office tower (200 unit SOFO).

Phase II, The square: 49 boutique retail office.

So far the phase and 2 already achieved take up rate more than 70%


Phase III, Solstic, 4 bock of service apartment tower (450-900sqft), 1446 unit

Future phases consist of street mall (The patio), shopping mall (The Gallery) and Resort hotel.

Teng said...

Pan'Gaea-OSKProp teamed up with groupon for 8k discount few months. ago. Very innovative way of marketing

Cyberjaya-Too many projects now. MahSing,SPSetia,MCT,UEM,MKLand are launching in CJ

hng said...

6. Bandar Puteri jaya township

OSK bread and butter developed in Sungai petani, kedah. Still have 1500 acres to be develop over the next 10-15year


Other mirror property development are from both Seremban and Seremban 3

Teng said...

OSK Property 132-133. Thanks Hng

Teng said...

Hng

OSK Research: YTL Land could extend rally

horse said...

Just got my home installed with MAXIS 10Mbps !!!

Teng said...

Horse

Are there any drilling involved?Lot of wiring?

karimaero said...

Hi everyone,

Just a newbie...hope can join in the party.

Cheers

karimaero said...

Hi Everyone,

Just a newbie.....hope can join your discussions. Very lively blog.

Cheers

Teng said...

Horse/CK

MSM-CA Trading at negative premium now. Last day of traidng 26/7. If today and tomorrow mother close at 5.20( MSM closing price has been 5.20 plus minus 1-2 cents last 1-2 weeks),worth to buy at 11.5 cents. But trading volume is very thin,so easily manipulated by any party

horse said...

Tiny wire come from behind my house, drill 1 small hole to enter my back room & mount with switch box. Simple and easy installation. Complete within 2 hours.

horse said...

Welcome Karimaero !!

Any watch list from you ?

Teng said...

Good.Do a speed test esp around 5pm. Most area has slower speed around 5-6pm. I was told about this by many internet provider

horse said...

Teng,

Good one on MSM-CA. A must grab CW !!
Start counting tomorrow. Close watch. ^^

alwayswin111 said...

Horse
You are right , I normally buy heavyweights. That's why you blog is so helpful for me to learn other stocks. . Learning a lot from you all.
By the way congrats to you all on oskprop. I didn't buy but happy for all of you. ... Laughing all the way to the bank... Seems to be this blogs logo.

alwayswin111 said...

Hng
What do u think of FAJAR at this level. Technically looks like a good buy

Teng said...

Sold half OSK Property at 1.31

hng said...

Ireka have generous and steady dividend payout record, shareholder can expect 5 sen TE by end of these month or early next month.

The most interesting is that, its 23% associate Aseana, listed in London exchange has proposed capital return of US$100m to shareholder, Ireka portion work out to be around US$23m x 3.25 = RM 75m, translating to 65sen/share. If take into account upcoming at least 5sen dividend, shareholder essentially get RM 0 cost of ireka share !?.

horse said...

No trading from me as yet. :(

Expect market to consolidate further tomorrow, cautious all...

Teng said...

Horse

Agreed.Europe market open broadly lower.

Teng said...

Horse

So far Msia stock holding well. If tonight US market suffer another sell down,Msia may be affected ?

horse said...

If tomorrow continue to go down, i will start buying.

horse said...

I have queued quite a number of counters but all not matched. :(

If today close weak, most likely we can do shopping tomorrow.

horse said...

Teng,

You still keeping ytlp-wb ? Look solid.
Close watch on this.

Teng said...

Horse

Armada CA-If mother close >4 today,and market is down tomorrow,can queue CA at 22.Of course provided mother is not down too much.Tomorrow last trading day.

horse said...

Armada-CA at 22sen. Hard to get. Forget about this. MSM-CA is a much better bid for possible settlement gain.

Teng said...

Horse

YTLPower and its WB is active today.

hng said...

Bought Haio at 2.02

hng said...

Bought more Haio at 2.02

horse said...

Congratz hng, instant profit on Haio. :)

No trading from me today. :(

alwayswin111 said...

Hng
Checked FAJAR chart again. Weekly chart bearish as just broken down M200. Will watch if it can support at 0.78-0.785

hng said...

alwayswin111

I'm not familiar with fajar, will do study on it first.

Market will undergo correction mode in next few day. Will collect more OSK property and ireka if opportunity arise. Currently both are my major holding in portfolio, comprise more than 1/3 for OSK property and 1/5 for Ireka.

Teng said...

Hng

Poweroot annouce 2.5cents TE dividen.Last year total div is 4.5cents TE.I like counter with high DY

Teng said...

Hng

I sold 1/2 of my OSKProp holding. I am thinking to buy OSKProp rights when it is listed. I find OR always trade at discount when listed.What do you think?

hng said...

teng

This time could be different! Lets examine the theoretical ex-price and found out that upcoming -OR worth more than triple of its underlying share.

Estimated Theoretical Ex-Right Price (10) = (13+1)/13 = RM1.077

Estimated Theoretical Right (OR) = RM 13.00 - RM 10.77 = RM2.23

If factors in intrinsic value of warrant (35% premium)

RM 2.23 + (3 warrant x 0.35) = RM3.28

So, the fair value for its upcoming OSK property-OR could be worth RM3.28, 3 time higher than its underlying share of RM 1.077 !?

Imagine, the OR is 3 x higher than its underlying share, what could happen to OSK property share when its 3x higher OR is listed...

Teng said...

Hng

I have feeling most OSKProperty holder may be confused with actual value for OSKProperty-OR

US stock is down >1.5% now. Tomorrow may see selling pressure in KLSE

horse said...

Dow Jones in big shit. :(

Tomorrow could be another down side for KLCI...

hng said...

Teng

I'm not overly concern on OSK property prospect. OSK has already secure as much as 800m unbilled sale, capable to last for 2-3 year, which ensure good earning visibility. In addition, by then the 'free' Atria shopping mall will be ready and able to derive recurring rental income.

In essence, the whole corporate exercise benefit Ong the most, as he is largest shareholder control 70% stake.

The fact that right issue issue at 1 for 10 and only raise as little as RM18m compared to its total equity of 380m, a merely less than 5% shown that the fund raise is secondary important. Ong will not convert its warrant, but will instead opt to exchange with new warrant based on 1:1, so the right exercise only can raise 18.7m based on current share capital instead of enlarge capital, to account for if warrant converted.


It is the further raise of Ong stake and to take new lower warrant exercise price are the primary objective of these exercise. Ong decision to terminate last WB earlier than its tenure is to facilitate the new warrant, which come attach to right share in these exercise, and allow all its unconverted warrant to exchange into new warrant. That essentially prolong its going to expire warrant stake to another 5 year and enjoy benefit of lower exercise price of 1.00 instead of last exercise of 1.25.

With that, if Ong entire new warrant stake to convert in future at RM 1.00 + fully opt for its current right in these exercise, Ong stake in OSK property will be exceed 85%.

Teng said...

Hng

I did know right issue exercise only raise small $ for OSK Property,and I was wondering why.now I understand

Maria^^ said...

omgggg wads happening to poweroot

Teng said...

Maria

What do you mean about Poweroot?

Derick said...

Hng

Thanks for your explaination. What do think of Faber ? Do u think can get extension for hospital contract ?

hng said...

Derick

Faber used to be UMMO linked stocks under UEM, but already separated and run by professional and have good balance of institutional shareholder backing. However, due to dependency on government concessionaire, political link remain tight to ensure continuous of its business. Upcoming GE become risk factor if unable to secure concessionaire before it.

If wanna to trade faber, one must prepared to buy only on weakness in different batch and waiting for rebound. There is market maker to push up share price and cycle repeat again and again. So, must adpot accumulation on weakness, hold a while, then selling on strength and repeat cycle.

Faber have good support at 1.30 and its dividend 8sen offer stock limited downside risk unless, faber failed to secure renewal. In contrast, if faber mange to secure 10year concessionaire, stock will spark and retest resistance at 1.90-2.00

hng said...

Maria, Teng

There is no bit deal in PWROOT, currently it under some correction even with dividend declare as it already runnp ahead and need time to absorb selling pressure. PWROOT offer attractive dividend yield of 6.8% nett, beat all other and its recurring due to fairly stable business model and net cash position.

I intend to accumulate more on its weakness or after ex-dividend to lower down my cost further and push up its yield to above 7%. It is one of my stock to be fill in my special dividend yield portfolio (purposely created to replace my bond fund, which yield less than 6%)

Derick said...

Hng

Thanks a lot :-)

Teng said...

Hng

Poweroot-I plan to accumulate more.Currently I hold quite substantial quantity of REITS.Most Reits price has gone up this year,and DY are mostly 7% or below( still need 10% tax for some REITS).With >6% nett,it is good to hold Poweroot

Teng said...

Bought Poweroot at 66.5

hng said...

Teng

I've change my coffee brand from Oldtown to PWROOT white coffee and tea, to support my stock holding last week in Giant cheras, got free gift + promotion, already stock up for next few month :)

hng said...

Bought WCT at 2.43, WCT-WB at 31.5sen

alwayswin111 said...

Hng
Thanks for info.

Teng said...

Hng

Too bad I don't drink instant coffee as it cause me diarrhea.But I do buy Alicafe for my in law

hng said...

Bought WTK at 1.20

Teng said...

Horse

You manage to get any MSM-CA?It is now 12-12.5cents

Teng said...

Bought WTK at 1.18. Actually wanted to buy Mudajaya at 2.53 but queue for before lunch till now still not done

hng said...

Bought more WTK at 1.18

hng said...

Buy even more WTK at 1.18

hng said...

Bought ultramaximum WTK at 1.18

hng said...

Sold back all WCT at 2.50, realize handsome intraday gain

tcg82 said...

congratz hng/horse/teng/all

mnrb, bought 3.05, juz announced dividend 17% less tax,in bursa lunch news

Teng said...

Hng

Poweroot annouced result. EPS 2.6 cents but I did not go into detail if there is any one time off gains. If not,then results is impressive

hng said...

Teng

PWROOT deliver a very solid and impressive Q1 result, EPS at 2.6sen, mainly due to increase export for its Beverage business. Annualized EPS stand at 10.4sen, or merely 6.4x and net cash of 11sen/share. I think its dividend will be increase as well to at least 7sen, based on 70% payout. Wait no more, tomorrow will start accumulating to fill up my special purposed portfolio

Teng said...

Hng

Yaya.Today missed 65-65.5 when it was 65-66. Tomorrow will buy more

Well done on your WCT.

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