Saturday, October 22, 2011

财女风情:做投资市场的赢家



成功的投资应该是不带感情的。对任何投资品,你既不能恨它,也不能爱它。
只有当心胸和智慧宽广到能平静地否定自己的习惯思维,并冷静地思索未来,你才会发现沙石堆里的珍珠。
人们总会自觉不自觉地把成功的投资归功于自己的才智、努力和对投资对象的判断能力,却忘记了时代发展和趋势的作用。
人们还会自觉不自觉地把失败的投资归咎于制度缺陷、投资对象本身的问题以及时机的不合适,却忘记了自己的恐惧、贪婪和无知。

投资理财和工作生活的很多事情一样,有三层境界:

第一层是”看山是山,看水是水”。

刚开始投资时,只要看到书上、电视里说的,或是朋友推荐的,就迫不及待、想当然地加入,稀里糊涂地赚钱,也稀里糊涂地亏钱。

第二层是”看山不是山,看水不是水”。

当受过伤、上过当后,发现原来很多东西不是宣传品上所说的那样,于是学乖了,凡事都带着怀疑审视的态度,无论风险还是机会一概排斥。

第三层是”看山还是山,看水还是水”。

在经历过第二层的人当中,只有少数人能升到第三层,这时会发现原来本质的东西就是最简单的一些道理,有些看似复杂的问题,其实判断起来很简单。

恐惧(fear)及贪婪(greed)都是人性的弱点,一旦意识到这两种情绪出现时,我们就要告诉自己:你想的跟做的要不一样(try to be have differently)。

拉长观察期

记得提醒自己:如果把整个投资的观察期拉长到3-5年来看,未来情况会变的很不一样的。

因此,做任何决定,都要冷静。在市场波动变大的时候,应该对“价格”这件事更注意,就像一般生活消费一样,在商品价格低的时候,多买一点,当价格高的时候,就要少买点。

股价低的时候,可以多建立一点部位,价格高的时候,千万不要一古脑只想着赚钱就追高,而是要想着如何避开风险。

从理性看,人都希望找到各种机会能买到低价的股票,且把股票卖在最高点,大家都知道这是赚钱的原则。

但就像之前说的,这些原则其实跟真实的人性不合,因为当市场上涨的时候,大家发现身边的人赚钱好容易,很想跟着买,如此就容易买到高点,相反的,当市场跌的时候,不论是新闻或者很多说法都是负面的,又让大家很难在价格下跌时买进。

时间是最大成本

现在投资的难度越来越高,这无关乎你是否资讯丰富或够勤奋,反而与你的投资时间长短有关。

如果你还想只投资三、五个星期,或三、五个月,那就太注意短线了。

这样,你容易变得十分情绪化,动不动就“天啊!今天发生什么事?”,就会急着杀进杀出。

你不是被贪婪或恐惧淹没,就是在情绪转换间摆荡得筋疲力竭。

但永远别忘了,长期持有的风险比想象的大,时间是最大的成本。长期持有必须牢牢建筑在好股、好价的基础之上。

长期持有的理念不是要我们更坚定,而是要我们更严格地挑选公司。

不可否认,贪婪是人性的一大弱点,市场上总是不乏追求短期暴利的投资者。

没有人能单凭复杂的模型软件、灵通的消息成为赢利高手,最赚钱的人一定是最有大思路的人。

人因盲从而动摇,因思考而坚定。

7 comments:

Anonymous said...

I've sold off all Eng at 1.52, realize one time big loss. The decision is make after notice that Eng major shareholder; Teh Eong Liang, former CEO of Eng is selling its stake through open market so much so until he ease to be substantial shareholder <5% now and will likely to continue dispose off share now, already seek intention to deal with share during close period

As Teh Eong Liang (from 6.31% to 4.73% now)is brother to current to CEO Teh Yong Khoo (9.98%)and son of Low Yeow Siang (13.24%), which collectively is shareholder of TYK, a party to takeover Eng at 2.50, it is thus highly unlikely now that the takeover will be abort soon.

Anonymous said...

Sold off all Malton at 60.5sen, realize handsome profit

Gark said...

Dato Teh Eong Lian disposed of all his shares in ENG on the 12 to the 14th October. This is during the initial stage of 'panic' selling due to the flooding news.

So far the other big partners including PNB have not disposed of their shares yet.

Still worth a bet?

Anonymous said...

Gark

Dato Teh still hold approximately 4.73% from initial 6.31% and ease to be substantial shareholder now (shareholding <5%).

Teh is currently seek to deal with share during closed period with intention to further cut now he stake holding which will not disclose in bursa from now as he ease to be major shareholding <5%. it is almost certain that takeover by he brother and mother under TYK at 2.50 will be aborted

Anonymous said...

Gark

Without the takeover deal at 2.50 offer by TYK control by Teh Eong Liang mother Low Yeow Siang and Teh brother, Teh Tong Khoo, Eng will not only lost these major catalyst, but will continue suffer from prolong flood situation in Thailand.

As an immediate family member and former CEO of Eng, Dato Teh should as insider person and best know the company status, if the takeover by he mother+brother control company TKY at 2.50 will go as plan, its is very unlikely that Dato Teh will dispose share through open market. This is very bad implication and the fact that Dato Teh now seek to deal with remaining stake of 4.73% during the closed period imply that he will continue selling his stake through open market.

Gark said...

Hng,

Thanks for the explanation, but since I have one foot in already, so will monitor further before taking action.

The flood situation is Thailand still remains a major question mark.

Anonymous said...

Gark

Although management guided that Eng Thailand operation contribute about 40% of its revenue, follow by Msia 32%; HK 19% and Philippine 9%, but its Principal market for the product are mainly for customer based in Thailand 75.2%, follow by USA; 14.2%, Philippine 4% and Singapore 5.6%.

This imply that flood in Thailand could adversely impact not only for its Thailand plant but also others as most of these semi-finish product have to export back to Thailand for its major customer (WD. Seagate etc) that themselves also have to shutdown operation.

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