Tuesday, January 31, 2012

Scalp Trades Dated 31/1/2012

1. Scalp traded the following today :-

2. Bought in PAVREIT at 1.09 and sold them at 1.10. :)

3. KLCI being artificially pushed up another 7.74 points. A good end for month of January 2012. :)

4. Will start buying in UOADEV on this coming Thursday. Price is very attractive at current level. Good Luck all and Happy CNY !!


DenveR said...

Hi Horse, happy new year =)
Would like to ask How did you feel that the UOADEV will reach RM1.70? Was it base on calculation from the project PE or EPS or gut feeling?? Thanks.
How is trading lately? Hope you are doing well.

horse said...

An estimation only on uoadev.
I am expecting the announcement on 4Q result as well as dividend declaration. Let say total all Q give around 26sen to 30sen, which mean the PE stood between 4.96sen to 5.7sen on current 1.49. For this counter to stood at PE = 7sen is not too much to ask for, in fact i expect much more than this. PE 7sen would mean RM1.80, so at RM1.70 only expecting PE at around 6.5sen. I have already scale down and did not make unrealistic call.
On dividend side, with EPS between 26sen to 30sen, i expect a 10sen dividend but to be conservative i take 30% payout, that would mean 8sen dividend which i think is reasonable. Assuming uoadev announces result now at current price at 1.49 with 8sen dividend. The ideal expectation from me would be 1.49+0.08 = 1.57, with a bit of force to make PE at 7sen would mean pushing the share from 1.57 to 1.80, but i only hope for 1.70 here. Does this make some sense ? It make sense to me, so i call to buy any price below 1.50. I just hope it come true else just keep for longterm as it is an underestimated stock. "Gems Stock".
You decide.

Derick said...


Very fair estimation, well done

DenveR said...

Horse, thanks for sharing your analysis, appreciate it =)

I have roughly the same estimation as yours, was asking for your explanation to verify it. As I am still very new to the stock trading, I was initially shocked and confused by the reported EPS. I did not know if the weighted-average number of shares should be used for calculating the EPS. Your analysis has answered my doubt, thanks! =)

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